I might put some money on a Cons landslide. At least then there'll be something positive for Friday morning.
General Election 2017 | Cabinet reshuffle: Hunt re-appointed Health Secretary for record third time
- Thread starter altodevil
- Start date
I think you might be surprised as there's been more social media buzz this time round. More than Brexit imo too and I think young people who were pissed at the Brexit result will want to vote this time round. It'll be the highest turn out for generations imo.
Nevertheless, I'm predicting this to be closer than expected - and no Tory landslide. Maybe even a hung parliament with a Tory minority government or the return of coalition
Not because of the youth vote, but just because of how terrible a campaign the Tories have fought. I've always been blue or yellow, never red, but on balance, it's hard to think of much that Corbyn has done wrong since the snap election was declared - he's been reasonable, humble and just gone on the attack just the right amount. Even I'm curious to see what he'd achieve in power.
May on the other hand, has seemed pretty damned wobbly, I don't even really understand what she stands for now.
The Conservative back benches must be crying out David Cameron - she makes him look like a class act with hindsight.
This has been a big factor regarding the surge in the polls for Labour. A lot of young remain voters jumped on the Lib Dems train at the start of the election because of their pro EU stance and a lot thought Labour were done for under Corbyn but as the election draws near the support for Lib Dems amongst young remainers has died down and most have switched to Labour now.
The referendum last year probably made a lot of younger people become politically motivated.
This guy got the last election result pretty spot on.
If he's right again, I fear the next 5 years http://iaindale.com/posts/2017/06/0...inal-predictions-a-tory-landslide-is-still-on.
If he's right again, I fear the next 5 years http://iaindale.com/posts/2017/06/0...inal-predictions-a-tory-landslide-is-still-on.
Totally agree with you here.
The problem is though that social media is never as representative as you think of the wider population. And while it is far, far more left-leaning and liberal than the general population as a whole, our perceptions of just how strong support for left-wing parties on it will also be slightly distorted because we're probably not following as many right-wing accounts. The youth vote will increase but it'll almost certainly still be a fair under the general turnout as a whole. Us politically engaged young people will always forget that there's plenty who don't care enough to vote on the day.
I do sense that the tide has turned with the youth this election.
It happened with the hype around Clegg but this time, it feels like its on a significantly larger scale.
I think its happening because of a few reasons
1) Trump victory
2) Brexit
3) Finally getting a candidate like Corbyn who they are excited by
4) They feel like they're being listened to and are being represented by a party leader who is different and not like the rest.
It happened with the hype around Clegg but this time, it feels like its on a significantly larger scale.
I think its happening because of a few reasons
1) Trump victory
2) Brexit
3) Finally getting a candidate like Corbyn who they are excited by
4) They feel like they're being listened to and are being represented by a party leader who is different and not like the rest.
Normally i'd agree, but there's been so much political talk since Brexit that I feel this is not a usual election. Those young people who didn't vote in Brexit and got their voice ignored will not be wanting to make the mistake again imo and it's still fairly recent so it's not like they will have forgotten about it. I'm probably over estimating the young and they'll disappoint us as normal, but I still think it will be a much higher turnout than normal (it won't be enough, but might help stop a Tory majority).
Election Data (Ian Warren) also did some great numbers today on the constituencies where under 50s outnumbered the over 50s. Labour already holds most of them with massive majorities.
But the youth turnout is going to be the most interesting thing by far. If they can turn out, and do so regularly in future when it's not just tuition fees on the line, it changes calculations by a lot.
But I'm not overly encouraged by the electorate only being around 500k bigger than 2015 on first estimates.
But the youth turnout is going to be the most interesting thing by far. If they can turn out, and do so regularly in future when it's not just tuition fees on the line, it changes calculations by a lot.
But I'm not overly encouraged by the electorate only being around 500k bigger than 2015 on first estimates.
I'd agree with that.
Yup, as would I.
So are phone polls supposed to be more accurate?
I don't represent youth per se (27 years old) but I'm voting in a general election for the first time ever for these reasons.
They are but if they're combined with unrealistic assumptions on turnout, they're just as useless.
No, they sucked so badly during the EU referendum that most have stopped using them now and gone online.
Would be hilarious if somehow....just somehow, JC becomes PM!
My popcorn would be out!
My popcorn would be out!
Didn’t they correctly predict the 2015 GE?
Nope, no one did.
Ahh okay fair enough.
Prediction based on a sample of around 500 internet respondents.
Prediction based on a sample of around 500 internet respondents.
I think the youth turnout this year is going to be hugely underestimated. i think the youngsters have found a candidate that they really believe in and i think they will be out in force to vote. Whether it will make enough of a difference is yet to be seen of course.
The PA guy has some more great numbers here
Had lol'ed at the idea of Canterbury being competitive but that's a big old jump.
Had lol'ed at the idea of Canterbury being competitive but that's a big old jump.
Another example of good campaign engagement is via live video platforms.
Looking on Periscope and one person broadcasting live the Gateshead rally has had 37k viewers watching the video, including 7k who were watching it live at the time.
That's a large viewing figure for Periscope. The really popular broadcasters on there get around 15-20k viewers in total for their videos.
Looking on Periscope and one person broadcasting live the Gateshead rally has had 37k viewers watching the video, including 7k who were watching it live at the time.
That's a large viewing figure for Periscope. The really popular broadcasters on there get around 15-20k viewers in total for their videos.
Last edited:
We've killed Caroline, though
As much as I live and love London, us registering more Labour voters means little to nothing. We've been red for half a century. As have most of our cosmopolitan cities. It's the Midsommer Murders Chedder-upon-the-wolge and Little Britain Styx parts of Britain we need to turn to have any kind of impact.
There's bound to be a miscalculation or two mate.We've killed Caroline, though
Yeah you're not wrong, i am in the south Dorset constituency and Richard Drax is a dreadful human being, but it's a true blue area so he will definitely win on Thursday.
Any knowledge of why they aren't fielding candidates this time?
Yeah, that is probably likely to happen.
Labour candidate for that constituency is active on twitter and a remainer too. Increased registration numbers is promising but Canterbury has been blue forever. Thornberry did run Brazier close in 2001 though (2,000 majority) so good decision to have her campaigning there a few days ago.
I think too much would be needed for it to be competitive: most of Lib Dems + Green voters voting for Labour as well as most of the new registrations and the UKIP vote (no UKIP candidate there this time but most will probably go Conservative) but will be interesting to see the impact Duffield has had to see if the margin of victory for Brazier isn't as big as he'd have liked.
Almost every poll is reporting an overwhelming Labour swing in wales though which is great news.Haha you're mostly right, although I think there's more to it than that.
London is largely Labour it's true, but you are surrounded by the Tory heartlands - Hertfordshire, Kent and the like.
But you're right that much of the blue vote comes from the South-west including here in second home and retirement villa central: Cornwall (I'm pretty sure most of the working types down here vote Lib Dem and Mebyon Kernow mind) - then there's a few constituencies in'tut North that are blue, not to mention the Welsh borders, even parts of Wales these days.
The young people are mobilising.
problem is a large chunk of the conservative vote is of a generation that doesn't have much online presencePrediction based on a sample of around 500 internet respondents.
...and those of us who don't like admitting to having certain Conservative values because of the inevitable flaming in places like this
- I can freely say I voted Tory in 2015 because I joined the Lib Dems since then. At the time though, it was something I was pretty reluctant to tell people. Shy Tories if you will.would the shy tory vote be an issue online? thought that would mainly be a phone and in person polling?...and those of us who don't like admitting to having certain Conservative values because of the inevitable flaming in places like this
...sorry, I thought DOTA made that projection using the data from the RedCafe poll above. In which case people might be shy as votes in these polls are sometimes publically visible?
EDIT: not this time mind.
When I was living there it felt very Tory and the students very lazy, but that was ~2010 which was the height of Labour fatigue. No Cleggmania that I really recall though. By the looks of it those figures suggest there's 8k more registered, 10k majority... The YouGov model has it a tossup so you never know.
ow he may of??...sorry, I thought DOTA made that projection using the data from the RedCafe poll above. In which case people might be shy as votes in these polls are sometimes publically visible?
EDIT: not this time mind.
but most internet polls are anonymous..... i just think the main issue witht them is those kind of polls arn't really filled in by a large part of the core conservative vote