Not very good. She will win the first vote, because the democrats are so divided (4-5 candidates) but she has got the problem that she is unlikely to win over voters from other candidates for the second vote. There is no hope she will get the necessary % to just straight up the first one, so in the second vote, the democrats will unite and vote for whomever came second in the first. Let's hope it will be Macron. I know some people high ranking in En Marche, as they have carefully tried to get connections in Germany, especially to the right wing of the SPD. At this point, I'm really impressed with him.
French Elections 2017
- Thread starter Cheesy
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Not very good. She will win the first vote, because the democrats are so divided (4-5 candidates) but she has got the problem that she is unlikely to win over voters from other candidates for the second vote. There is no hope she will get the necessary % to just straight up the first one, so in the second vote, the democrats will unite and vote for whomever came second in the first. Let's hope it will be Macron. I know some people high ranking in En Marche, as they have carefully tried to get connections in Germany, especially to the right wing of the SPD. At this point, I'm really impressed with him.
The main problem with Macron is how do you make sure that he has the necessary majority at the parliament? If people new that answer, he would be a lot higher in the polls.
The thing in France is, with the presidential system they have, you don't really need the parliamentary majority. He can be free in forming a gouvernment, ensuring majoritys as he goes. It actually is a pretty interesting idea.
Has there been any more talk of the likes of Ayrault defecting to En Marche?
Should he look like winning, expect a lot of people trying to enter that boat...
No, you need the parliament. Our parliament is all powerful (with the none confidence motion) but you don't see it because we generally vote for one party at a time and french politics is a crooks heaven, as long as you give them something (generally districts) they will support you. He could dissolve the parliament and organize new elections but it doesn't really work and we could just end up with a president unable to work efficiently.
Any ELI5 explanation for the controversy surrounding Fillon's wife? Was she paid with tax money?
The French president is probably on of the most powerful in western democracies. I know you might feel that it won't work, but political commentators are pretty sure it could. He basically needs PS and the conservatives to give him the majority on relevant topics. At least the conservatives won't let the opportunity slip to have influence, that might be already enough. As I've said, I 've spoken with En Marche people, they seem to have a pretty good plan. It really is a question of fear, fear which might not be justified.
Honestly, we don't really know what happened. And she was paid by Fillon with his parliamentary budget, so yeah tax money.
Yes. No law broken though, it's just fishy for a politician running on a "work hard, try hard, we need to reform and cut social security" platform to get his wife into a very well paid job.
That's the problem though.
As I said, that needs to be seen
I think its worth the risk, as the one party gouvernmental system clearly hasn't done any good to France the last 30 years. Something resembling a coalition might be the answer.Ah, the good ol' "no laws broken defense". If she didn't do any work and she got paid with tax money and there weren't laws broken with that, then there's something wrong with the law if you ask me.
Absolutely. You wanted an ELI5 though and I think it needs to be mentioned it was not against the law, but against ethics.
On that point, that's not exactly true. I will give you an example, at the moment when I go to the GP, I pay 23€ and 16€ are reimbursed but if I go to the hospital I don't pay 23€ at all, that's what Fillon wants to stop, he thinks that you should go to the ER for emergencies otherwise you are not reimbursed. He thinks that only chronical disease should be automatically reimbursed and the rest things like a cold or a sprained ankle should be dealt by the GP and not be fully reimbursed. At least that's what he proposed for the moment.
By the way @JPRouve , Chirac did just fine while having a socialist gouvernment under him.
The law is broken if she didn't do the job.
Okay, being honest here, I don't really get your point. What is GP, for starters? And isn't that proposal cutting gouvernment spending in some way?
Chirac did nothing, Jospin was the boss and he had the majority at the parliament. Which go back to my point who do we vote for? Who is he going to have as prime minister?
It will likely go down the route of installing an independent gouvernment of some sorts.
GP is general practitioner. My point is that some people try to pay nothing by not following the normal procedure, they go directly at the hospital because if you do that you don't have to pay anything. He wants to reimburse all the chronical disease at 100% Parkinson, Alzheimer, Diabetes, hypertension and all but not what he calls "cosmetic" and to be fair there is a risk that his plan costs more money than anything because things like glasses and dentistry are barely supported at the moment so it's not going to change anything on that front.
most people would consider France to be a semi-presidencial system and the president is certainly not one of the most powerful ones in western nations. The parliament is very influencial during cohabitation.
I have too strongly disagree here. In Western Europe, no president (or monarch) has got the powers the French president has. They are all mostly without any actual constitutional power. Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, Spain, GB, Italy, Norway etc. are all examples. Of course you could argue France is semi-presidential (because it is) but my point was most western countries do no have a presidential democracy at all.
thats true. I thought you talk about western democracies in general, which would include various presidential systems. In the end the French system is a lot like parliamentary systems during times of cohabitation.
Actually, I only count the presidential systems in the western world: Portugal, France and the US. And there is difference between how the system was commonly lived and what is possible in theory. There are a lot of options untouched in France I would say. Macro seems to be willing to use some of them.
You mean the guys from Der Seeheimer Kreis? Interesting.
Yes. There have been meetings with Gabriel.
Poor Macron
but it's obvious why he did it. I had thought more of the likes of Johannes Kahrs, Carsten Schneider, Thomas Oppermann et al but that's perhaps too early.Poor Macron
I really don't know which exact people have been part of those meetings. There were other people around for sure.
But foremost, Gabriel could have been important for him in the upcoming elections, while the likes of Kahrs and Schneider clearly won't be. As you said, too early.
Edit: I know though they tried to get more people into talks and he was in Berlin for 3 days. So idk. Would need to ask.
Fillon’s choices: the bad, the worse and the real ugly
No good options for French conservative candidate.
http://www.politico.eu/article/fillons-choices-the-bad-the-worse-and-the-real-ugly/
Two more names (to Baroin) who might or might not preparing behind the scenes to take over if need be.
No good options for French conservative candidate.
http://www.politico.eu/article/fillons-choices-the-bad-the-worse-and-the-real-ugly/
Two more names (to Baroin) who might or might not preparing behind the scenes to take over if need be.
Why oh why are younger voters so fond of FN?!?
Why oh why are younger voters so fond of FN?!?
Eugh.
Not just the populist, they also love the conservative over the technocrat or the leftists. Shocking.
A very biased (and probably false) guess: A ~58% public expenditure/GDP ratio and crazy regulation cripple the labour market for young people. The consequence is ~26%+ youth unemployment in France. I doubt that many of these people would trust the left to address this problem.
Macron? Fillon is a "family-values" guy, Le Pen has no problems with govt expenditure. The common thread is regressive social views.
yes. thats where people turn once they got disappointed. I am not entirely serious with the first part of my analysis; the high youth unemployment is certainly a factor so. Failed immigration policies and failed economic policies makes people go nutz during elections.
I think the trendline also suggests that the closer people were born to the war, the more reticent they are to back the far right.
Why oh why are younger voters so fond of FN?!?
I think to be consistent it's only fair given the level of debate over Brexit that we just call all French people stupid racists and leave it at that.
I think so, too. Which I find comforting in the sense that they haven't forgotten how terrible it was. Some seniors over time seem to turn a blind eye on it or think it wasn't all that bad. Glad to see most French voters' memories don't fool them.