Football & Sports Betting Thread 2019/2020

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Big Andy said:
City let me down on a 15/1 acca tonight the shit blue cnuts
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But I had a right touch with a bet builder

Madrid to win
Over 1.5 goals
Over 7 corbers
No goal in the first 10 minutes

thought it was fecked, but Bet365 early payout kicked in when Madrid went 2-0 up so effectively won
 
Big Andy said:
fecking Paddy Power are cnuts.

I’d previously excluded myself from their site, but saw a risk free £20 so registered a new account and put it on Sweden, Italy, Switzerland at 11/2.

just logged on to see my cashout value and they’ve closed my account.

cnuts

Switzerland better not win now
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Paddy power fecked up here. They closed my account but not the bet. Then they forgot to refund my stake. So I rang them on Friday last week asking where my refund was. £130 dropped into my account today. :angel:
 
I've taken a little on Lille +0.5 tomorrow. Ajax are without Blind, Veltman and Neres and should not be below evens to win in France when they have been outshot in every game so far.
 
Spiersey said:
Senegal to win group C in Beach Soccer World Cup looks a misprice to me on Unibet at 3/1. I am pretty clueless on the comp but Senegal are higher in the world rankings than UAE, pretty sure they will be favourites. Unibet have almost definitely priced it as if the tiebreaker is h2h (Russia beat them 8-7) but WIki says it is GD (As all FIFA football competitions are, I assume Beach Soccer is also). Russia would need to outscore Senegal by 6 assuming Senegal win by just 1 goal. A friend who follows the sport says that he would have Senegal around 1.6 to win. Russia are 1.4 to beat Belarus so a 6 goal win would be unlikely. Looks decent value to me anyway but I may have made an error somewhere. Senegal group winners at 1.8 is fair based off my thoughts.

Unibet can't void the bet either, as not being aware of the competition rules isn't a reason to void. IBAS would eventually rule in favour, https://www.ibas-uk.com/examples/betting/pricing-errors/case-study-1-away-goals/
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Won. Unibet settled as lost incorrectly, should get changed overnight.
 
Spiersey said:
Don't think price will last long but Ajax u19s 0 at 1.72 and win at 2.2 is great tomorrow. Were 1.4 to win at home but were missing 2/3 of their best players, Unuvar and Brobbey. Both should be back tomorrow along with 7 u17 World Cup players. Lille been incredibly fortunate this campaign. Chelsea dominated them and lost, Valencia did the same both games. They should really be bottom of the group with 0/1 points. Ajax are the best team in the comp for me when full strength, they should win comfortably. I've got Ajax around 1.5 to win.
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Used my dormant Expekt account to throw everything they let me at their 2.27 opening price. Let's see if they still want me as customer after this. Down to 1.5 now. Thanks!
 
André Dominguez said:
DC Dinamo Zagreb [FAIL]
DC Crvena Zvezda (will wait for starting 11): After wtching Bayern starting 11, dediced to fold.
Real to win (I think PSG will rotate) [FAIL]
BTTS on Spurs game (they almost always get the odd goal) [WIN]

Cholet to win (possible trade) [Win] Managed to close the trade during the 2nd Q, where Cholet managed to get a 5 point lead. Small profit, though.
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Since the Cholet game profit was narrow, the overall was negative for those bets.
 
Berbaclass said:
@Spiersey Salzburg U19 good value @ 2.0?
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Nah, Genk are pretty good. The reverse game was even. Think salz are better team but probably fair price. Will be an open game, think either can win. Genk were missing best player v Liverpool though, not sure if he will he back today. Tempted by overs if it starts open.
 
Well....
DC Valencia
DC Lyon
DC Dortmund

On basket
Zabon +26
Ellan Bernais to win (for trading)
Hradec kralove +33.5
 
QPR v Nottingham, QPR -0.5 @ 2.34
Lille v Ajax, Lille 0.5 @ 2.05

Edit:
Sheffield Wed v Birmingham, Birmingham 0.5 @ 2.02
 
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Marco Silva next to be leave post is out to 4/1 now with Emery favourite, gonna have a few quid on Silva I think, Emery could prolong his job with a couple wins, Silva has a terrible run of fixtures coming up.

(Expect Emery to be gone half hour after I play this bet)
 
One Night Only said:
Marco Silva next to be leave post is out to 4/1 now with Emery favourite, gonna have a few quid on Silva I think, Emery could prolong his job with a couple wins, Silva has a terrible run of fixtures coming up.

(Expect Emery to be gone half hour after I play this bet)
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I've been told by someone with links to Arsenal that Emery is a goner after Thursday. Guys usually reliable, they're apparently trying to secure a replacement currently. All the staff were given two days off, they were expecting Emery to be gone. Guys usually reliable but obviously if they can't find a replacement, they might keep him for a bit longer. If they both survive til Sunday though Silva definitely has a chance of going first.
 
One Night Only said:
Marco Silva next to be leave post is out to 4/1 now with Emery favourite, gonna have a few quid on Silva I think, Emery could prolong his job with a couple wins, Silva has a terrible run of fixtures coming up.

(Expect Emery to be gone half hour after I play this bet)
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You could be on to something there. Arsenal's next games aren't too bad.

Everton's on the other hand: Leicester, Liverpool, Chelsea, United and they're only 4 pts off relegation as it is.
 
Spiersey said:
I've been told by someone with links to Arsenal that Emery is a goner after Thursday. Guys usually reliable, they're apparently trying to secure a replacement currently. All the staff were given two days off, they were expecting Emery to be gone. Guys usually reliable but obviously if they can't find a replacement, they might keep him for a bit longer. If they both survive til Sunday though Silva definitely has a chance of going first.
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Ah thanks for that, they're having the same problem as Everton then. They can't find a replacement either.

Arsenal are a bigger draw though so could be easier.
 
Early stats in Chelsea youth game suggest they are gonna win close to evens for ze degenerates, more to play for than Valencia.
 
Spiersey said:
Don't think price will last long but Ajax u19s 0 at 1.72 and win at 2.2 is great tomorrow. Were 1.4 to win at home but were missing 2/3 of their best players, Unuvar and Brobbey. Both should be back tomorrow along with 7 u17 World Cup players. Lille been incredibly fortunate this campaign. Chelsea dominated them and lost, Valencia did the same both games. They should really be bottom of the group with 0/1 points. Ajax are the best team in the comp for me when full strength, they should win comfortably. I've got Ajax around 1.5 to win.
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won 2-1. 2-0 up after 7 minutes was nice, should have won easier in the end. Nice for Lille’s luck to finally run out too. Brobbey looks back to full fitness too, good to see.
 
Spiersey said:
Don't think price will last long but Ajax u19s 0 at 1.72 and win at 2.2 is great tomorrow. Were 1.4 to win at home but were missing 2/3 of their best players, Unuvar and Brobbey. Both should be back tomorrow along with 7 u17 World Cup players. Lille been incredibly fortunate this campaign. Chelsea dominated them and lost, Valencia did the same both games. They should really be bottom of the group with 0/1 points. Ajax are the best team in the comp for me when full strength, they should win comfortably. I've got Ajax around 1.5 to win.
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Just to say spot on again! I had 30% of my bankroll on this one!
 
I've rebacked Astana +0.5 after a drift today. Drift makes zero sense to me personally. Been thinking about it more today as well. Couple of decent games that sort of help with a comparison. Obviously its hard to say exactly what the correct line should be or exactly how the game will play out so can only take a calculated guess.

I was on United u19s -0.5 away to Young Boys last year in the UYL. It was not a great bet, I massively underestimated the difference that the artificial turf would make. The astro at YB is much better than the one in Astana. Think 5/6 of the expected starting XI played that game. Gomes, Greenwood and Chong all struggled on it. Garner dealt with it okay though. I can't envisage any way that +0.5 will be a bad bet unless Astana think they'll win 6-0 easily and try to coast it. I've got Astana odds on, really surprised they haven't dropped further still.

Another decent comparison was Doncaster v United u21s in EFL. Doncaster played their reserves, was 3 first teamers. They kicked off around 1.8 and traded 1.5 after 15 minutes. United sneaked a 2-1 win late but were fortunate. Laird, Mengi, Galbraith, Chong, Greenwood all played that game. Astana are much better than the Doncaster side that was put out that day, even without factoring in the weather, pitch and travel as well as the home crowd. United will of course be stronger also but not as much as the step up from Doncaster > Astana.
 
Danny Roberts said:
Does anyone do FootballIndex? I tried it a little while ago just for some cashback offered but now doing their £500 risk free offer too.
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It is not legal in PT and they don't accept registrations from PT citizens (yes, I've tried). It's an index stock market, and like a real stock market, it's always more safe to gamble on future dividends rather than the high risk of buying low sell high strategy that will backfire the majority of the times.
 
Any tip on good odds comparison websites? Seems Betbrain have lost it, quite happy with Oddsportal and Oddspedia, but no odds for individual goals and cards there...
 
André Dominguez said:
Well....
DC Valencia [WIN]
DC Lyon [FAIL]
DC Dortmund [FAIL]

On basket
Zabok +26 [WIN] Zabok won the match!!!
Ellan Bernais to win [FAIL] A very strong start by Nanterre ruined the market.
Hradec kralove +33.5 [FAIL] Small punt because Nymburk is much ahead of any team in Czech league, but they usually take it easy on national league matches. Not this time, though
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Well... If it wasn't for the Zabok full win (didn't need to trade), this would had been a terrible day.
 
Krasnodar to win (Basel is already qualified)
DC Basaksehir (Roma has been dodgy away this season)
Morelos to score
Arsenal to win (risky nowdays though :D)
Draw on Lugano - Copenhagen
Sporting to win: PSV is under pressure.

On basket:
Valencia to win (for trading)
Alba Berlin - Zalgiris Kaunas: this game will be good for arbing/trading (or not)
 
Pagh Wraith said:
QPR v Nottingham, QPR -0.5 @ 2.34
Lille v Ajax, Lille 0.5 @ 2.05

Edit:
Sheffield Wed v Birmingham, Birmingham 0.5 @ 2.02
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1/3 yesterday. Seems Ajax were quite fortunate again to come away with the three points. I may be looking to oppose them again in the future as I think they are overrated by the market.
 
Spiersey said:
I've rebacked Astana +0.5 after a drift today. Drift makes zero sense to me personally. Been thinking about it more today as well. Couple of decent games that sort of help with a comparison. Obviously its hard to say exactly what the correct line should be or exactly how the game will play out so can only take a calculated guess.

I was on United u19s -0.5 away to Young Boys last year in the UYL. It was not a great bet, I massively underestimated the difference that the artificial turf would make. The astro at YB is much better than the one in Astana. Think 5/6 of the expected starting XI played that game. Gomes, Greenwood and Chong all struggled on it. Garner dealt with it okay though. I can't envisage any way that +0.5 will be a bad bet unless Astana think they'll win 6-0 easily and try to coast it. I've got Astana odds on, really surprised they haven't dropped further still.

Another decent comparison was Doncaster v United u21s in EFL. Doncaster played their reserves, was 3 first teamers. They kicked off around 1.8 and traded 1.5 after 15 minutes. United sneaked a 2-1 win late but were fortunate. Laird, Mengi, Galbraith, Chong, Greenwood all played that game. Astana are much better than the Doncaster side that was put out that day, even without factoring in the weather, pitch and travel as well as the home crowd. United will of course be stronger also but not as much as the step up from Doncaster > Astana.
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Gave United way too much respect first 20, they didn't even try to play football. Improved since then, been an even game since. Had 2 decent chances and United created virtually nothing despite the possession, deflection for the goal. Hopeful of 1-1 still. +0.5 has been average at best overall but unders has been really good. Xg would be very low this half.
 
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