Football & Sports Betting Thread 2019/2020

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National League tonight:

Chesterfield v Hartlepool, Hartlepool 0.25 @ 2.18
Dagenham & Redbridge v Sutton, Sutton 0.5 @ 1.95
Wrexham v Fylde, Fylde 0.25 @ 1.98
 
Spiersey said:
Senegal to win group C in Beach Soccer World Cup looks a misprice to me on Unibet at 3/1. I am pretty clueless on the comp but Senegal are higher in the world rankings than UAE, pretty sure they will be favourites. Unibet have almost definitely priced it as if the tiebreaker is h2h (Russia beat them 8-7) but WIki says it is GD (As all FIFA football competitions are, I assume Beach Soccer is also). Russia would need to outscore Senegal by 6 assuming Senegal win by just 1 goal. A friend who follows the sport says that he would have Senegal around 1.6 to win. Russia are 1.4 to beat Belarus so a 6 goal win would be unlikely. Looks decent value to me anyway but I may have made an error somewhere. Senegal group winners at 1.8 is fair based off my thoughts.

Unibet can't void the bet either, as not being aware of the competition rules isn't a reason to void. IBAS would eventually rule in favour, https://www.ibas-uk.com/examples/betting/pricing-errors/case-study-1-away-goals/
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Good knowledge!
 
On football:
DC Dinamo Zagreb
DC Crvena Zvezda (will wait for starting 11)
Real to win (I think PSG will rotate)
BTTS on Spurs game (they almost always get the odd goal)

The DC bets have good trading possibilities.

On basketball
Cholet to win (possible trade)
 
Spiersey said:
Senegal to win group C in Beach Soccer World Cup looks a misprice to me on Unibet at 3/1. I am pretty clueless on the comp but Senegal are higher in the world rankings than UAE, pretty sure they will be favourites. Unibet have almost definitely priced it as if the tiebreaker is h2h (Russia beat them 8-7) but WIki says it is GD (As all FIFA football competitions are, I assume Beach Soccer is also). Russia would need to outscore Senegal by 6 assuming Senegal win by just 1 goal. A friend who follows the sport says that he would have Senegal around 1.6 to win. Russia are 1.4 to beat Belarus so a 6 goal win would be unlikely. Looks decent value to me anyway but I may have made an error somewhere. Senegal group winners at 1.8 is fair based off my thoughts.

Unibet can't void the bet either, as not being aware of the competition rules isn't a reason to void. IBAS would eventually rule in favour, https://www.ibas-uk.com/examples/betting/pricing-errors/case-study-1-away-goals/
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Not to mention the overs galore. I've put small punts on overs above par and the only game that didn't end on over was the Japan vs Swiss.
 
Spiersey said:
I’ve just staked under 3.25 (1.8) and under 3 (2.02) in this now. Rashford seems like he won’t be involved, it’s on Astro as well. Astana lack any real goal threat, United are tumescent. Expecting a poor game. Still can’t find any solid info in expected temp inside the stadium but would imagine it’s still cold. Seems far too high of line for me, really struggling to see any scoreline where there is 4 goals.
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Cheers, will have a closer look. With Villa, Spurs and City coming up between Sunday-Saturday I'd be shocked if anyone from the regular starting XI is on the plane.

 
Samid said:
Cheers, will have a closer look. With Villa, Spurs and City coming up between Sunday-Saturday I'd be shocked if anyone from the regular starting XI is on the plane.

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I think it'll be something along a mix of Romero, Jones, Matic. Mata, Young, Greenwood, Garner, Laird, Gomes + maybe Shaw or Tuanzabe. Don't think it's beneficial to send all kids to a game like this with the conditions. Travelling squad hopefully come out soon. Even if it is kids I think unders is still good, along with +. United will struggle to score with a weak side on the bad pitch and Astana really do lack quality up top.
 
Berbaclass said:
Juventus @ 2.10 is incredible value tomorrow I think. Atleti are a shadow of their former selves and I believe they will have Ronaldo back.
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Atletico's metrics are excellent this season, much better than last year. Infact they lead La Liga in xPts. They have been the best team in the group so far and the markets seem to agree as Juve have drifted out to 2.35.
 
Spiersey said:
Looks good from sheets as well, Valera back for us from Spain u17s and Moreno only on bench for Juve, he's their best player. Did you stake on Sing?
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On ibc. Pinnacle opened sub 2.00 and I staked some on the straight win instead (2.59), then there was a short drift in the AH markets before the prices crashed.
 
Pagh Wraith said:
Atletico's metrics are excellent this season, much better than last year. Infact they lead La Liga in xPts. They have been the best team in the group so far and the markets seem to agree as Juve have drifted out to 2.35.
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We’ll see won’t we.
 
Pagh Wraith said:
On ibc. Pinnacle opened sub 2.00 and I staked some on the straight win instead (2.59), then there was a short drift in the AH markets before the prices crashed.
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Decent, no danger of void then. Sing been unusable for me recently, are you still using SportMarket?
 
Spiersey said:
Decent, no danger of void then. Sing been unusable for me recently, are you still using SportMarket?
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Yeah. Are they voiding more than usual now?

Have you had any issues with any any of the other bookies recently? Asking because Sportmarket put out this:

IBC and SBO have both recently introduced a series of measures targeted at improving their risk management capabilities. In some cases, these changes have resulted in customers experiencing significantly reduced bet placement success rates and/or significantly worse prices appearing on the betslip.

SBO have informed us that specific accounts will be ‘marked’, without prior notice, at the sole discretion of their Risk Team. In extreme cases this can result in the standard odds being reduced by half e.g. 1.84 reduced to 1.42.

IBC prices are displaying on the betslip as normal but on placement they frequently return the message “We are updating odds, please try again later.” This often results in the odds being reduced despite the bet not being placed.

We are aware of these issues and are working hard to mitigate the impact on customers whilst continuing to comply with the rules promulgated by our Bookmaker partners. If you have any questions, please contact us via the feedback form or through your preferred method.
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Seems I'm affected by this. Juve v Atletico in the Youth League for example is 1.93/1.91 on sbobet.com but I get 1.88/1.88 on Sportmarket. Bit of a joke.
 
Pagh Wraith said:
Yeah. Are they voiding more than usual now?

Have you had any issues with any any of the other bookies recently? Asking because Sportmarket put out this:



Seems I'm affected by this. Juve v Atletico in the Youth League for example is 1.93/1.91 on sbobet.com but I get 1.88/1.88 on Sportmarket. Bit of a joke.
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We have this problem at PT since a couple of years ago. Our odds are some of Europe's lower. Sometimes there are some better odds at the physical bookie named Placard, but you have to register it at register machine.
 
Pagh Wraith said:
Yeah. Are they voiding more than usual now?

Have you had any issues with any any of the other bookies recently? Asking because Sportmarket put out this:



Seems I'm affected by this. Juve v Atletico in the Youth League for example is 1.93/1.91 on sbobet.com but I get 1.88/1.88 on Sportmarket. Bit of a joke.
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The last few weeks they are, seems to go in batches. Will get no voids for a while then loads at once.

SBO are essentially broke I think, they don't want anyone who is near profitable. A couple years ago their limits were the biggest of any Asia bookie and now they are comfortably the smallest. Would be surprised if they still exist in a years time. Apparently if you can prove you're a long term loser they will give you an account with proper limits. IBC are apparently halving the prices for good gamblers, I've not had any issues with it yet (and neither has anyone I know) so I imagine the agents have done something to stop it.
 
Don't think price will last long but Ajax u19s 0 at 1.72 and win at 2.2 is great tomorrow. Were 1.4 to win at home but were missing 2/3 of their best players, Unuvar and Brobbey. Both should be back tomorrow along with 7 u17 World Cup players. Lille been incredibly fortunate this campaign. Chelsea dominated them and lost, Valencia did the same both games. They should really be bottom of the group with 0/1 points. Ajax are the best team in the comp for me when full strength, they should win comfortably. I've got Ajax around 1.5 to win.
 
Spiersey said:
Senegal to win group C in Beach Soccer World Cup looks a misprice to me on Unibet at 3/1. I am pretty clueless on the comp but Senegal are higher in the world rankings than UAE, pretty sure they will be favourites. Unibet have almost definitely priced it as if the tiebreaker is h2h (Russia beat them 8-7) but WIki says it is GD (As all FIFA football competitions are, I assume Beach Soccer is also). Russia would need to outscore Senegal by 6 assuming Senegal win by just 1 goal. A friend who follows the sport says that he would have Senegal around 1.6 to win. Russia are 1.4 to beat Belarus so a 6 goal win would be unlikely. Looks decent value to me anyway but I may have made an error somewhere. Senegal group winners at 1.8 is fair based off my thoughts.

Unibet can't void the bet either, as not being aware of the competition rules isn't a reason to void. IBAS would eventually rule in favour, https://www.ibas-uk.com/examples/betting/pricing-errors/case-study-1-away-goals/
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1.6 to win now, looks like they finally realised. Good value anyway, hopefully Senegal win comfortably.
 
Spiersey said:
On Atletico u19s Draw no bet tomorrow @2.1 small.

Was hoping for a much bigger Atletico price but still some value for me at this line. Juve won 4-0 in the reverse game, was a complete freak. Scored a pen, a screamer and two great counters. Atletico were the better team, had big chances at 0-0 and 1-0, they’d have won the game on another day. Atletico are the best team in the group for me, they outplayed loko in Russia. Loko were better team home and away to Juve, juve fluked a win in Russia again. Think their luck will finally run out, I’ve got Atletico win around 2.1 fair.
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Lost last kick, was pretty comfortable then Moreno scores a great goal to equalise. Conceded 93.30 when only 3 added to rub salt into wounds.
 
On Astana +0.5 now also with the squad that United have taken. Astana should be favourites, United youngsters are really talented but the difference in physicality can't be made up for in technique. A decent u20 side will easily beat a really good u18 side. Men v boys, should be straightforward, will leave my unders for now as well, be surprised if that loses still.
 
Fancy a double of Madrid/PSG BTTS & Over 2.5 and Tottenham/Olympiakos over 2.5 @ 2.40

Seems fairly safe IMO.
 
Spiersey said:
On Astana +0.5 now also with the squad that United have taken. Astana should be favourites, United youngsters are really talented but the difference in physicality can't be made up for in technique. A decent u20 side will easily beat a really good u18 side. Men v boys, should be straightforward, will leave my unders for now as well, be surprised if that loses still.
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On it, sir.
 
Spiersey said:
Had some on Lokomotiv Moscow +0.5 at 1.81 at home to Leverkusen next week. Not one to bet CL really so just a small bet as mainstream. I’ve got standard Russia home bias as being 0.75 of a goal, they were +1.25 away in Germany. However, it will be around -6 in Moscow for the game, compared to around 10-15 degrees for their previous home games. Russian sides very rarely lose their final home game of the groups due to this factor. Rostov beat Bayern a couple years back, Bayern players said they just couldn’t ever warm up and get going. It makes a pretty big difference. Germany is cold but they have a winter break so they aren’t used to playing in that temperature. Think it’ll be a pretty close game, I’ve got 0 Asians fair.
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Weird game, Loko were way better first half, conceded a freak own goal and missed big chances. Probably deserved to be 2-0 up at HT. Didn't turn up 2nd half though and conceded a Bender screamer.
 
Spiersey said:
Senegal to win group C in Beach Soccer World Cup looks a misprice to me on Unibet at 3/1. I am pretty clueless on the comp but Senegal are higher in the world rankings than UAE, pretty sure they will be favourites. Unibet have almost definitely priced it as if the tiebreaker is h2h (Russia beat them 8-7) but WIki says it is GD (As all FIFA football competitions are, I assume Beach Soccer is also). Russia would need to outscore Senegal by 6 assuming Senegal win by just 1 goal. A friend who follows the sport says that he would have Senegal around 1.6 to win. Russia are 1.4 to beat Belarus so a 6 goal win would be unlikely. Looks decent value to me anyway but I may have made an error somewhere. Senegal group winners at 1.8 is fair based off my thoughts.

Unibet can't void the bet either, as not being aware of the competition rules isn't a reason to void. IBAS would eventually rule in favour, https://www.ibas-uk.com/examples/betting/pricing-errors/case-study-1-away-goals/
Click to expand...

Senegal beat UAE 3-1. Russia need to win by 8 to win the group. Probably around 50/1 for it to happen however I'm having the day from hell currently so it's quite likely.
 
Arsenal let me down for a 60/1 Acca at the weekend. Tonight I stupidly stuck City in with Juve, Leeds, Spurs/Draw (in play) and Luton at 30/1. Only put them in to boost the odds a bit. All the others were over Evens and the 1/5 let’s me down again ha.
 
Ady87 said:
Arsenal let me down for a 60/1 Acca at the weekend. Tonight I stupidly stuck City in with Juve, Leeds, Spurs/Draw (in play) and Luton at 30/1. Only put them in to boost the odds a bit. All the others were over Evens and the 1/5 let’s me down again ha.
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Feel sorry for you pal, once put united in at silly odds and learned my lesson. I never put a shorts odd on in with odds that vary from them.
 
Pagh Wraith said:
Sunderland v Burton , Burton 0.25 @ 2.13
Chesterfield v Hartlepool, Hartlepool 0.25 @ 2.18
Dagenham & Redbridge v Sutton, Sutton 0.5 @ 1.95
Wrexham v Fylde, Fylde 0.25 @ 1.98
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4/4 thanks to four away wins. Smashed the closing lines as well. Makes up for the weekend.
 
Trying to have a little punt on BTTS in Ponte Preta v Brazil Pelotas but B365 don’t have the market. Just kicking off now!
 
Ady87 said:
Arsenal let me down for a 60/1 Acca at the weekend. Tonight I stupidly stuck City in with Juve, Leeds, Spurs/Draw (in play) and Luton at 30/1. Only put them in to boost the odds a bit. All the others were over Evens and the 1/5 let’s me down again ha.
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City let me down on a 15/1 acca tonight the shit blue cnuts
 
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