Football & Sports Betting Thread 2019/2020

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My bets for today:

Crawley v Exeter, Exeter -0.25 @ 2.15
Sutton v Bromley, Bromley 0 @ 2.02
Shrewsbury v Bristol, Shrewsbury -0.5 @ 2.23
Kiel II v HSV II, HSV II @ 2.04
Augsburg II v Nürnberg II, Augsburg II @ 2.08
 
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Easiest 40 I made with Spurs. Mourinho was never gonna lose his 1st game.
 
Ah ok I'm not watching but given the number of shots it looked like they'd been on top before the goal anyway. I'd say they'll win at this stage. Hope so anyway. I need a second from Arsenal too

Looking a lot better now, Vardy has been on fire doing all the work and squaring it for teammates who have been messing around and slipping over the ball.
 
Fair enough. Dont think he'll move there at all, but at least you present the case well :D

More titles at City, better wages and more stardom at United/City who can also spend more than Chelsea, so Dortmund might just hold Chelsea out of it - Just think it's more of a fan's punt than it is realistic. Not sure Chelsea will be spending huge money on one big player anymore.
interesting reasoning

maybe worth a punt if odds are right

Chelsea might move on Willian and/or Pedro too

they did invest heavily in Pulisic though and we are probably talking close too 100m for Sancho
Regarding City, I think Guardiola would be unwilling to have him back. He was openly critical of Sancho's decision to move, and when prompted of a possible Sancho return, he said, anything is possible if City have a new manager. The implication here that it wouldn't happen under his own tenure. From the perspective of Sancho, his main competition would be Bernardo Silva, aged 25, and he's been vociferously praised by Pep on more than one occasion, and widely considered to be City's best player alongside De Bruyne. In contrast, the players with the most appearances on the right for Chelsea are Willian (31 years old, 7 appearances), and Pedro (32 years old, 3 appearances on the right). Lampard has hinted he's prepared to pay big, and I do think he has an affinity to English players. Moreover, Roman Abramovich has wanted both domestic, and academy players featuring for the Chelsea side, for quite a substantial amount of time. I think he would happily back Lampard, if he deems Sancho as someone he wants in his side.

Best I could find was 9/1. @buckooo1978 You're right, Chelsea did invest heavily in Pulisic. Looking at Chelsea's three biggest signings since 2011:
Kepa aged 23, Morata aged 23, Pulisic aged 20, I believe they're willing to break their transfer record, or come exceedingly close to that, if the player in question is young. Just to clarify, the aforementioned ages are the ages of the respective players when they were signed from their parent clubs.

I'm not saying it will 100% happen, but rather enough potential for me to take a punt on it. Especially, with it being considered to be exceedingly unlikely by the masses, which makes the odds better.
 
Two bets today:

Lüneburg v Lübeck, Lüneburg 1 @ 2.14
Ascoli v Cosenza, Cosenza 0.25 @ 2.03

Edit:

And from the Women's Super League:

West Ham W v Reading W, West Ham W 0.5 @ 1.92
 
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I was waiting for news on whether John Egan is fit to start for Sheffield but they have been drifting in the last few hours and I've now put a small stake on them with the 0.25 handicap start regardless. Got 2.17 and I have the fair price below evens.
 
Two bets today:

Lüneburg v Lübeck, Lüneburg 1 @ 2.14
Ascoli v Cosenza, Cosenza 0.25 @ 2.03

Edit:

And from the Women's Super League:

West Ham W v Reading W, West Ham W 0.5 @ 1.92
I will copy you :) what do you mean Cosenza 0.25, is that asian handicap 0.0,+0.5?
And Lüneburg 1, you mean Asian handicap +1.0?
 
Yes, no sign means it's a positive handicap.

Lüneburg just closed at 1.88 and Cosenza are trading at 1.90 at the moment so the value is gone unfortunately.
 
Lüneburg lost 1-3 after leading 1-0 and Cosenza managed to lose 2-3 after being 2-0 up. Sums up my weekend.
 
It gets better. West Ham 2-0 up against 10 men Reading found a way to concede 3 in the final 15 minutes and lose. Christ.
 
Not much of a choice for me today. Some of these bets are decent for trading for those who like those markets:

Strasbourg to win at Boulazac
Nymburk AH-36.5
Crvena Zvezda - Mornar Bar over 158.5
CSKA Moscow AH-15.5

Fluminense to win: they need to win to avoid relegation.
Villa - NUFC over 2.5
 
I've no bookie accounts currently so won't be watching properly, but would recommend watching the Beach World cup if possible and betting in play. It won't be well priced, similar to the Socca World Cup last month, you don't have to have any knowledge of it to profit on it, it's badly mispriced generally, will be value on a certain market for most games (eg Overs or Unders will be priced wrongly for the first couple of days). Just be selective and don't bet every game.

This was quite a nice tip. The result by each part can be a decent market (3 parts per game), and the overs / unders are clearly poorly calculated. The AH is actually decently calculated
 
On Atletico u19s Draw no bet tomorrow @2.1 small.

Was hoping for a much bigger Atletico price but still some value for me at this line. Juve won 4-0 in the reverse game, was a complete freak. Scored a pen, a screamer and two great counters. Atletico were the better team, had big chances at 0-0 and 1-0, they’d have won the game on another day. Atletico are the best team in the group for me, they outplayed loko in Russia. Loko were better team home and away to Juve, juve fluked a win in Russia again. Think their luck will finally run out, I’ve got Atletico win around 2.1 fair.
 
I love the fact you call this "still some value" when we're talking about a 30% EV bet going by your numbers. :lol:

I assume the Youth League won't be up in Asia before tomorrow?
 
I’ve gone for BTTS & Over 2.5 in the Odense v Midtjylland game @ 2.15.

Odense relatively good at home (W5 D1 L2) also scored 16 in 8 games and conceded 8. Midtjylland on the other hand are the best away side in the league (W7 D1 L0) scored 13 but only conceded 2. Midtjylland have a good defensive record away from home but I can’t see Odense not scoring personally. They’ve scored in 19/20 of their recent home games.
 
I love the fact you call this "still some value" when we're talking about a 30% EV bet going by your numbers. :lol:

I assume the Youth League won't be up in Asia before tomorrow?

:D I was hoping to get Atletico +0.5 at least really, thought they'd price it more off of the 4-0 game.
Yeah asia won't price til 8/9am tomorrow. Asia backed Juventus a couple of times this campaign though, might get a drift at some point.
 
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Senegal to win group C in Beach Soccer World Cup looks a misprice to me on Unibet at 3/1. I am pretty clueless on the comp but Senegal are higher in the world rankings than UAE, pretty sure they will be favourites. Unibet have almost definitely priced it as if the tiebreaker is h2h (Russia beat them 8-7) but WIki says it is GD (As all FIFA football competitions are, I assume Beach Soccer is also). Russia would need to outscore Senegal by 6 assuming Senegal win by just 1 goal. A friend who follows the sport says that he would have Senegal around 1.6 to win. Russia are 1.4 to beat Belarus so a 6 goal win would be unlikely. Looks decent value to me anyway but I may have made an error somewhere. Senegal group winners at 1.8 is fair based off my thoughts.

Unibet can't void the bet either, as not being aware of the competition rules isn't a reason to void. IBAS would eventually rule in favour, https://www.ibas-uk.com/examples/betting/pricing-errors/case-study-1-away-goals/
 
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I’ve gone for BTTS & Over 2.5 in the Odense v Midtjylland game @ 2.15.

Odense relatively good at home (W5 D1 L2) also scored 16 in 8 games and conceded 8. Midtjylland on the other hand are the best away side in the league (W7 D1 L0) scored 13 but only conceded 2. Midtjylland have a good defensive record away from home but I can’t see Odense not scoring personally. They’ve scored in 19/20 of their recent home games.
You just need an Odense goal. This might have been a decent shout
 
I’ve gone for BTTS & Over 2.5 in the Odense v Midtjylland game @ 2.15.

Odense relatively good at home (W5 D1 L2) also scored 16 in 8 games and conceded 8. Midtjylland on the other hand are the best away side in the league (W7 D1 L0) scored 13 but only conceded 2. Midtjylland have a good defensive record away from home but I can’t see Odense not scoring personally. They’ve scored in 19/20 of their recent home games.

Followed you on this one. Nice one man!
 
Juventus @ 2.10 is incredible value tomorrow I think. Atleti are a shadow of their former selves and I believe they will have Ronaldo back.
 
For the same reasons do you think there's some value in Astana +1.5? Around -10 on Thursday, ridiculous travel and there's no reason whatsoever for United to risk players with the existing injuries and the hectic schedule coming up.

I’ve just staked under 3.25 (1.8) and under 3 (2.02) in this now. Rashford seems like he won’t be involved, it’s on Astro as well. Astana lack any real goal threat, United are tumescent. Expecting a poor game. Still can’t find any solid info in expected temp inside the stadium but would imagine it’s still cold. Seems far too high of line for me, really struggling to see any scoreline where there is 4 goals.
 
I’ve just staked under 3.25 (1.8) and under 3 (2.02) in this now. Rashford seems like he won’t be involved, it’s on Astro as well. Astana lack any real goal threat, United are tumescent. Expecting a poor game. Still can’t find any solid info in expected temp inside the stadium but would imagine it’s still cold. Seems far too high of line for me, really struggling to see any scoreline where there is 4 goals.
Dead rubber game too, pretty decent bet IMO.
 
Qatar -1 vs Iraq looks a good bet at 2.6. Iraq will be missing 7 of their main outfield players. They all play for Al Shorta and they played in yesterday's Arab Club cup vs Nouadhibou. The gulf cup is being hosted in Qatar and they said they'll be full strength. It's already moved from 2.0 to 1.5 but it's still a good price on the handicap.
 
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