Thought Merc should've pitted around the same time as Max, he then would be on settled inters to repass a couple and then take Perez and Leclerc near the end. After Perez pitted I would've responded to any closing of the pit window to him, no point losing time, clearly the track wasn't drying enough but you need to pit when it's still fairly wet, especially after all the overtaking he'd done before. Both Merc and Lewis dragged it out longer than needed a couple of times. Lewis had the lap time to make this a lot closer, 11th to 5th in the wet is not that good.
F1 2021 Season
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Have you seen the rest of the forum?
Also, discussion has been a lot better the past two races. I'm enjoying the thread again.
That looks awfully close to a blow out (from my naive understanding of the tyre structure). Anyone know what the exposed surface is?
Should be carbon fibre?
With hindsight, this was definitely the optimum strategy. It feels they should have been very clear with Lewis earlier that the tyres would definitely not last the whole race. If that was their view, then they were just gambling on slicks becoming an option.
As it was, the various lap times seem to suggest to me that Hamilton had a reasonable chance to at least hold on to 4th if he’d stayed out. The only driver who did last the whole race was running about 1.36 at the time Hamilton pitted and did a 1.37 last lap, suggesting there wasn’t a drop off the cliff moment with the tyres.
A tough decision and it does feel as though communication with Hamilton and his team needs to improve. Had they said to Hamilton, we don’t think we can risk going to the end on this tyre, I don’t think his reaction would have been the same and he’d have probably wanted to pit earlier.
yep ocon was obviously very close there, but that’s an alpine with way less downforce.
Anyway it’s all speculation, Merc cut their losses and played it safe - he might have scored a few extra points or lost it all.
that circle is the outer tread completely worn away. the inner part is the carcass which is usually still made of rubber but a harder structure. that wouldn’t be giving any grip.
if he wore through that point then it would blow out for sure, I think Ocon said 1 more lap and it would have blown.
Did Merc have to take the engine penalty here as well? Otherwise was it an error to do so?
It seemed fairly clear throughout that they had a significant advantage here. Without the penalty, it probably ends with Hamilton 1st and Verstappen 3rd, so a 20 point difference to what actually happened. If they instead took it at a course where Max had the edge, and let’s say Lewis came 7th, then that’s only a 12 point loss (-7 without the penalty, -19 with it).
It seemed fairly clear throughout that they had a significant advantage here. Without the penalty, it probably ends with Hamilton 1st and Verstappen 3rd, so a 20 point difference to what actually happened. If they instead took it at a course where Max had the edge, and let’s say Lewis came 7th, then that’s only a 12 point loss (-7 without the penalty, -19 with it).
Also, discussion has been a lot better the past two races. I'm enjoying the thread again.
It has improved massively, although there have still been plenty of childish posts.
Still, it seems that as it's become more clear that the title is going to Max, there's less stress from his fans - even Christian Horner has been sensible for a couple of weeks!
Yeah there were a few posts on here before the race about how it seemed like a poor decision, hard to understand the Mercedes thinking behind taking the penalty this week.
Turkey is/was a better overtaking track to regain positions. Compared to other circuits on the calendar they felt this would give them the easiest opportunity to make up ground.
Really? Mercedes are looking bigger favourites than ever before right now. They were absolutely dominant on pace in Turkey and Honda have no answer for Mercedes’ recent boost in power.
Mercedes have been faster everywhere since Silverstone (with the exception of Zandvoort)
Max luck would see Lewis’ tyre blow out when comfortably leading and looking set for victory. Lewis has been the lucky one this season by some margin. The fact that Max is still leading the championship is frankly astounding.
Agreed. The difference in pace between the Mercs and Red Bull was huge in Turkey. It's a bit odd to expect Red Bull / Max to cruise to victory in my opinion. It's small margins at this point, though you're right Lewis is lucky that's even the case. If Max hadn't been so unlucky the championship would have been all but decided at this point so it's a bit weird that people on here are saying Lewis needs Max's luck to change. If anything what Lewis needs is for Mercedes to get their act together and judging by the pace of both Mercedes cars recently they have. It will be an interesting and hopefully an entertaining end to the season.
I agree that Hamilton needs Max's luck in the next weeks. 1 or 2 DNF from chrashes for Hamilton wouldn't be bad for Max and Red Bull.
I see we're back to top notch posts now .
If Max wins it all I hope he does so by beating Lewis on the track in tight races by being the better driver in the better car. If Lewis wins it I hope it's for the same reason. I enjoyed Sunday partially because everyone performed in difficult conditions (Merc and Ferrari strategists aside) and a faultless performance was rewarded with a win. I hope to see more of that.
.If Max wins it all I hope he does so by beating Lewis on the track in tight races by being the better driver in the better car. If Lewis wins it I hope it's for the same reason. I enjoyed Sunday partially because everyone performed in difficult conditions (Merc and Ferrari strategists aside) and a faultless performance was rewarded with a win. I hope to see more of that.
That just simply isn't true. Hungary Max was taken out, Spa max won (a farce I know, but fasted in qualifying too), Zandvoort Max won, Monza Max crashed (but was faster and got torpedoed by a terrible pit stop). It's only Sochi and Turkey that Mercedes had the advantage. And now we're heading into a bunch of tracks that should heavily favour the RB.
The only reason the championship is even close is due to the DNFs for Max, otherwise he'd have it sewn up by now - the Red Bull has been a much faster car this year, with a couple of exceptions in recent races.
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Guys come on, we know who you support, but you don't have to take everything as a dig that requires defending.
Luck can change throughout a season. Max had horrendous luck earlier in the season, but recently had good luck with the rain in Sochi. The poster was simply saying that currently it's favouring Max, and for the title race to be anything other than a formality from here, it would require Max to switch back to getting bad luck.
I know hindsight is 20/20, but this was as close to a guaranteed win as you can get, which was thrown away to favour tracks that are known to favour the Red Bull. Plenty suspected it would backfire and it has. Really poor decision.
This is why Mercedes made a mistake in taking the penalty in Turkey in my view.
The fact that it seems like Hamilton would have been 1st with Max in 3rd, makes the difference even more significant.
Mercedes have really made some questionable calls this year
Mexico & Brazil are probably the only tracks on the calendar that would have RB as strong favourites, the rest is up for debate. Taking the penalty here felt like the right decision as the dominance to come back through the field was obvious. An engine change DNF at either Mexico or Brazil would have been catastrophic for their title chances as the altitude will have a much more severe effect on their performance. The gains in speed they've made though will make the difference towards the end of the season on the last three circuits.
Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff has explained the team is attempting to 'contain the problem' in its engine after changing Lewis Hamilton's ICE for the Turkish Grand Prix.
Mercedes has taken grid penalties for engine changes at each of the last two races with Bottas gaining two new units in Italy and Russia.
Unlike Bottas, Hamilton only changed his ICE rather than taking a full power unit, a change that carries only a 10 place grid drop rather than a back of the grid penalty.
"When you start to push the boundaries with power unit performance, at a certain stage you will experience some obstacles," said Wolff.
"Our power units have been the most reliable since the introduction of the hybrid units in 2014.
“Because these boundaries are being pushed, we have seen examples of unusual noises within the combustion engine that aren’t completely understood at that stage yet and therefore cause some trouble in the past.
“We had engines that basically failed and now it is about containing the problem because in that phase, redesigning parts is not something you would tackle.”
Like Bottas, Hamilton's title rival Max Verstappen opted to take a completely fresh power unit in Russia but was able to limit the damage with a recovery to second on race day.
Explaining why Hamilton had not gone so far, Wolff added: “The other parts, like the turbo and other auxiliary elements, are in wonderful shape and are really happy.
"[They are] easily within the mileage limits and therefore we didn’t need to take new components."
They have no ruled out Lewis taking another penalty !
https://www.skysports.com/f1/news/1...-wont-rule-out-taking-another-f1-grid-penalty
Mercedes has taken grid penalties for engine changes at each of the last two races with Bottas gaining two new units in Italy and Russia.
Unlike Bottas, Hamilton only changed his ICE rather than taking a full power unit, a change that carries only a 10 place grid drop rather than a back of the grid penalty.
"When you start to push the boundaries with power unit performance, at a certain stage you will experience some obstacles," said Wolff.
"Our power units have been the most reliable since the introduction of the hybrid units in 2014.
“Because these boundaries are being pushed, we have seen examples of unusual noises within the combustion engine that aren’t completely understood at that stage yet and therefore cause some trouble in the past.
“We had engines that basically failed and now it is about containing the problem because in that phase, redesigning parts is not something you would tackle.”
Like Bottas, Hamilton's title rival Max Verstappen opted to take a completely fresh power unit in Russia but was able to limit the damage with a recovery to second on race day.
Explaining why Hamilton had not gone so far, Wolff added: “The other parts, like the turbo and other auxiliary elements, are in wonderful shape and are really happy.
"[They are] easily within the mileage limits and therefore we didn’t need to take new components."
They have no ruled out Lewis taking another penalty !
https://www.skysports.com/f1/news/1...-wont-rule-out-taking-another-f1-grid-penalty
For several decades, the chalet at the top of Spa's legendary Raidillon corner existed as a prominent landmark and an incredible vantage from where to watch the action.
But safety concerns linked to the daunting corner, validated by several dramatic crashes in recent years at Spa, have forced Spa to extend the run-off area at the top of Raidillon, a change that unfortunately entailed the destruction of the historical chalet.
The building was destroyed this week as work at the corner got underway. A new grandstand complex featuring public seating and integrated VIP lounges will be built on the site.
But hopefully, Raidillon will retain its ingrained challenges while offering improved its safety.
The times they are a changin...
1. Mercedes was much faster than Red Bull in Hungary qualifying
2. Mercedes looked significantly faster than Red Bull in Spa on Friday but rain blurred the picture.
3. Mercedes was much faster than Red Bull in Monza. The only reason why that wasn’t a straight forward Hamilton win was because his abysmal start in the sprint.
Mercedes has been the clear best car since that monstrous Silverstone upgrade. I recommend that you read this article:
https://the-race.com/formula-1/mark-hughes-verstappen-right-to-worry-about-mercedes-trend/
Anyone who is logical can clearly see that Max is the clear underdog here.
What a load of nonsense. "Anyone who is logical would agree with me". How childish.
The Silverstone upgrade was far from monstrous, they found some one lap pace at the expense of race pace, which is why they were still slower than Red Bull overall. Silverstone itself is a great example - the Merc qualified well, but in the sprint the RB disappeared off into the distance - a pattern we saw a lot before Sochi.
Merc have been undisputedly faster for the 2 most recent races, but before that they've been playing catch up.
I assume that with the bolded bit you mean remaining races, as otherwise its hard to take seriously.
As for the decision, I would expect Hamilton to be able to go from 11th to 5th at Mexico or Brazil, so throwing away a guaranteed win is still a poor decision.
Of course, why would we worry about circuits than has already been done on the calendar?
The luck Hamilton vs Verstappen - breakdown:
Italy - Hamilton runs into a wall and was set to come out dead last, also needing repairs and would not have any points - BEFORE Bottas instantly saved him by crashing with Russell causing a red flag, free repairs and no more positions lost for Lewis.
Points gained by Hamilton in the championship: +19 (VER 25, HAM 19)
--
Baku - Verstappen looking to win the race and take 25 points vs Hamiltons 15 before his tire blow out.
Points gained by Hamilton in the championship: +10 (VER 0, HAM 0)
-
Silverstone - Max leading the race setting to bag 25 vs 18 point to Lewis, before Lewis is causing a collision and is deemed guilty.
Points gained by Hamilton in the championship: +32 (VER 25, HAM 18 - became HAM 25, VER 0)
-
Hungary - Hamilton looking set to win and take 25 vs 18 Vs Verstappen before Bottas takes out both Red Bulls.
Points gained by Hamilton in the championship: +18
-
Monza - Hamilton set to score more points than Max before the collision. HAM 12 - VER 10)
Points gained by Verstappen in the championship: +2
-
Russia - Verstappen set to finish 7th and Hamilton 2nd before the rain comes in, HAM 18, VER 6 becames HAM 25, VER 18.
Points gained by Verstappen in the championship: +3
Total summary of points gained by sheer luck: Points gained by Lews 79 Vs Points gained for Verstappen 5.
Note, you could even note any points gained by Verstappen in Russia should not count because the engine change was a direct result of a Hamilton punished error, meaning Hamilton was responsible and lucky Max had to take an engine penalty.
If luck was not a thing the current championship standings would be:
Verstappen: 346.5
Hamilton: 262.5
Which leads us to The Hiltons next point:
You are absoulely right Max would have already clinched the WDC-title if not for all the bad luck explained above, but you are wrong about the reasons.
The reason Max would have won is that Lewis has made so many errors that without incredible luck would have given Max an aprox 70 point swing in the championship.
Mercedes has had the better race pace except for Baku and Monaco, Bahrain and Red Bull Ring x2. At Zandenvort Red Bull won on strategy, the Mercs were insanely quick.
Conclusion, the reason Verstappen should have clinched the title already is not because Red Bulls car has been better than Mercedes on the whole, its because Lewis has made endless of errors that he was incredible lucky not to pay for. Verstappen has been pretty much error free and outpeformed Lewis in every capacity, sadly that might not be enough to win the title because of Mercs unreal engine advantage.
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Its clear that since Mercedes were beaten convincingly by Red Bull at Red Bull ring they brought their engine to another level and has since then been the clear faster car. And the gaps seems to have increased since then even with the Red Bulls being outclassed in the dry in Turkey.
Mercedes are great favourites to win the title as Red Bull has no answer for the Mercs engine advantage which they have enjoyed since 2014. Hamilton having his worst season making mistake after mistake has kept it close, but with the current car advantage Mercedes has, I cant see how Hamilton can not end up winning the title in the end. Mercedes is doing what they have done every year in the hybrid wera - BLOWING the competition out of the water in the 2nd half of the season, and turning their engine up when needed, they´ve got plenty in reserve.
The amount of laps and races where Hamilton has ran at the back of Verstappen with pace in hand is enormous, basicly running in dirty air for almost entire races and still having the tires to easily follow Max. If Max had not made so many amazing starts in the beginning of the season Lewis would have cruised to a couple of more victories since the Merc had a clear race pace advantage at many tracks were Max snatched pole position.
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Not true at all. The RB has been class of the field all season. The Silverstone upgrades brought Mercedes closer to RB.
However it all comes down to the tracks themselves and getting the tyres in the right operating window. The next few tracks favour the RB.
If people think max is the underdog they should have a look at the bookies odds, as max is the clear favourite to win the WDC with the bookies and has been for a while.
4/6 odds on and 4/7 odds on with most bookies. Bookies are stupid, if they are going with such short odds for max then max is the favourite.
Where exactly do you get the idea that the Silverstone upgrade was at the expense of race pace? There is not a shred of evidence to support that.
Obviously the Mercedes car is now a class of the field, and indeed the Silverstone upgrade was indeed massive. Look at the data, and how the average gap between them and other teams (not just Red Bull) has exploded.
We wouldn't, it was just the way it was worded. Just wanted to check.
The evidence was the actual race, it was quicker in qualifying but much slower in the race. Merc then lost the next few races whenever Max actually finished.
The Merc has been faster in the last 2 races, one of which is known to suit the car better, and now we're heading to tracks that suit the RB. If Merc are still faster there, then you may have a point.
However, the idea that Merc were faster since Silverstone is demonstrably false, the Red Bull has been faster everywhere until Sochi.
It's actually impressive how much effort you've put into this post just to defend the honour of your beloved Max, filled with enough hyperbole to power a warp engine, and it's also very selective with regards to what constitutes luck in order to exaggerate, but I'm not gonna argue that stuff because you've spectacularly missed the point - as you've said yourself, the most recent gains due to luck were Max's, and the original post was that Lewis needs that luck to change - nothing to do with previous luck in the season, just that Max had some good luck recently.
As for your comment about Mercedes having better race pace, it's just silly, the Mercs have been behind most of the year, and have only recently managed to get ahead (and it remains to be seen if that was due to the tracks).
I actually agree that Max has been the better driver this year, although not error free, but he's definitely had the better car. No shame in that, as most champions do.
This thread sadly has returned to the lower standard of debate again.
Fair points.
Not much right in your post:
1. I am Ferrari fan, not a Verstappen fan
2. I was not selective about what was luck, I could have excluded everything stemming from Lewis taking Max out at Silverstone but I did not.
3. Oh, the Mercs have been behind all year, and yet have a clear lead in the WCC.
The Mercs have been behind all year, but still 99% of all practices and Q sessions have ended:
Hamilton, Verstappen, Bottas in top 3. (in various order)
And then Perez somewhere between place 4 to 10.
So either both Lewis and Bottas have pulled of miracles each practice session or the Merc have not been behind as being claimed by only Lewis fans and the british media. Its much more likely its Verstappen that has made the difference and taken the Red Bull to where it does not belong. See Perez.
Only on a british forum full of Hamilton fans making things up to prop up their beloved Lewis is it possible to get to the conclusion that Red Bull definitely have had the better car, absolutely ridiculous.
The only reason I got involved in this is because I see so much horsecrap posted about the Merc being such underdogs and Red Bull having a car advantage, which is clearly not true.
I do not see that on any north american or scandinavian F1 forums I visit, only on british ones, what a coincidence.
Yawn, another essay, all because you can't understand what "recent luck" means. Anyway given that you act like practice is more important than actual race pace to pretend the RB is slower than it is there's not much point in going into your post, the Merc could have a top speed of 10mph and you'd pretend it's the faster car.
Wrong, its demonstrably correct. Infordin is on point.
Hungary. Mercs were quicker and Lewis were set to win even if Bottas has not taken the Red Bulls out.
Belgium. Mercs were quicker in practice before the rain came, and then Lewis messed up qualifying and there was no race.
Netherlands. Very even, Max had Lewis in his gearbox all race long and managed to win by the smallest margin. Lewis would have won easily if he had free air.
Italy, Mercs were clearly dominant over Red Bull, Hamilton was expected to pull away from Max after the pitstops, even Lewis own fans admitted that as they were enraged by the fact that Verstappen "stole a win from Lewis".
So basicly 3 races Mercs were quicker, and 1 were even with Merc clearly having more pace in hand but Verstappen managed to block Lewis from overtaking,and you are claiming Red Bull was quicker at all 4, completely absurd.
Oh my god you're a religious zealot. It's not enough to write essays pumped full of hyperbole when replying in our conversation, you have to interject into my conversations with other people as well. You're far too emotionally attached to the idea that the Merc has been faster, when it's been the second best car on track most of the year.