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Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the EU?


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Typical, just as I start to think I am going to vote remain the polls move to Brexit, I swear the world hates me.
 
I just wanted to point out that the figures cited do not point to the post Brexit disaster and collapse the remain side has being trying to peddle and I accept that the Brexit sides desire to cure all ills in the UK with 8.5 billion they probably won't really save look very optimistic too.

To be fair, the drop in the ocean comment was in comparison to our NHS comment. I think the narrative of it was 'if you really think the savings are significant then how significant do you think it will be to lose 4x that amount' etc. It's not the leave side saying it's an insignificant figure, they're harping like Christmas will come early financially when actually it is estimated to be much worse than if we stayed. Those of us who think it's worth it consider the money to be insignificant sure and for us there are other important reasons to defer to rather than looking at it from the cost perspective, but the ones wanting to leave class that £8bn as very, very significant which is why it's important for them to understand that 4x that is much much worse.
 
The £22bn is efficiencies though, the NHS is chr


I thought the £22bn is efficiencies, so come from how you spend the money rather than the amount of money being spent?
My understanding is that the NHS was £30bn over budget so even with 'efficiency savings' its would be spending £22bn less on something that they're currently spending £22bn. Maybe there is £22bn of waste in the NHS that can be cut without impacting the quality of service, but its not going to be re-invested elsewhere in the NHS.

May be wrong.
 
My understanding is that the NHS was £30bn over budget so even with 'efficiency savings' its would be spending £22bn less on something that they're currently spending £22bn. Maybe there is £22bn of waste in the NHS that can be cut without impacting the quality of service, but its not going to be re-invested elsewhere in the NHS.

May be wrong.

Indeed
 
Anyone know which poll came out yesterday showing leave 10 points ahead? It was mentioned on the BBC but I can't believe its true.

OBR - however they had a telephone poll two days ago showing a 10 point lead the other way and this poll specifically had London +12 for leave which is unlikely
 
Why is the nhs 30b over budget?

Probably nurses and.doctors salaries right?

Or maybe badly run with too much money being spent on bad decisions and crap management
Probably people living longer needing more expensive medication for longer
Short of legalising (ok compulsory) euthanasia or some kind of logans run / soylent green scenario that funding gap is going to grow
 
So where exactly can I get all the facts for both votes, I'd rather be informed properly that have a bunch of people tell me reasons to vote for their choice
 
Probably people living longer needing more expensive medication for longer
Short of legalising (ok compulsory) euthanasia or some kind of logans run / soylent green scenario that funding gap is going to grow
Is the UK you having the same kinda "baby boom" driven spike in healthcare that we are in the states?
 
indeed we are - the major difference of course being we fund our healthcare systems slightly differently with "free at the point of delivery" being something inbuilt to our NHS (as is its state funding)
I wish we did that, to be honest. I don't see how we can claim to be the "greatest nation in the world" and have healthcare as a privilege.

It sounds grim, but in speaking of fiscal terms you occasionally have to be non-PC.. if we can get through the baby boomers, once that generation has died off, the strain on the healthcare system should lessen. Barring they cause its collapse, of course.
 
I wish we did that, to be honest. I don't see how we can claim to be the "greatest nation in the world" and have healthcare as a privilege.

It sounds grim, but in speaking of fiscal terms you occasionally have to be non-PC.. if we can get through the baby boomers, once that generation has died off, the strain on the healthcare system should lessen. Barring they cause its collapse, of course.
I guess it depends how much cutting edge healthcare costs at that point... if costs continue to spiral as research into genetics takes us further and further into what is possible (eg if growing new organs becomes standard does everybody want a new heart - and what are the costs of that!) - bionic type implants to mitigate the ageing process etc - I dont know what the answer is but my guess is it involves a lot of money in the short / medium term
 
I guess it depends how much cutting edge healthcare costs at that point... if costs continue to spiral as research into genetics takes us further and further into what is possible (eg if growing new organs becomes standard does everybody want a new heart - and what are the costs of that!) - bionic type implants to mitigate the ageing process etc - I dont know what the answer is but my guess is it involves a lot of money in the short / medium term
I truly fear the road we are going down in some of our research into those things. It's something I've had my students discuss before in regards to overpopulation. I don't know that the greater good would be to develop bionic implants and newly grown organs, etc. If we "cure death", we all eventually starve, right?
 
I truly fear the road we are going down in some of our research into those things. It's something I've had my students discuss before in regards to overpopulation. I don't know that the greater good would be to develop bionic implants and newly grown organs, etc. If we "cure death", we all eventually starve, right?
perhaps we become robots who can repair ourselves and dont need food? - who am I kidding President Trumps going to nuke the world and there wont be any humans in a decade
 
Why is the nhs 30b over budget?

Probably nurses and.doctors salaries right?

Or maybe badly run with too much money being spent on bad decisions and crap management

Overbudget or underfunded? You tend to see either usage thrown around depending on who is describing the situation.

The budget is imposed so it shouldn't be confused with the way you'd use this term in private sector projects for instance.

There's certainly a lot of bad management and expensive consultancy fees paid over and over but the bigger issue is people living longer and the cost of chronic conditions caused by age and obesity.
 
I don't understand this talk of people living longer, it's as if this only happens in the UK, other countries have much better health services and people live longer there as well.
It's underfunded for a start, put some pennies on income tax and fund it from there, am sure the citizens of the UK would not complain - people would be happy and people should stop blaming the EU for UK inefficiency.
 
I don't understand this talk of people living longer, it's as if this only happens in the UK, other countries have much better health services and people live longer there as well.
It's underfunded for a start, put some pennies on income tax and fund it from there, am sure the citizens of the UK would not complain - people would be happy and people should stop blaming the EU for UK inefficiency.
Might I ask, how exactly is NHS funded? Is there a percentage of your income tax earmarked for NHS in that you could tell how much of your tax goes toward it?

I'm very pro-single payer system and in the US that leads to people asking me questions about costs, taxes, etc.
 
Might I ask, how exactly is NHS funded? Is there a percentage of your income tax earmarked for NHS in that you could tell how much of your tax goes toward it?

I'm very pro-single payer system and in the US that leads to people asking me questions about costs, taxes, etc.

I live in France where part of what is the equivalent of National Insurance in the UK is specifically earmarked for health care. In the UK it's different and seems to go into a big pot. This needs resolving in the UK. In France you pay much more in (NI) contributions but the money has to come from somewhere.
 
I live in France where part of what is the equivalent of National Insurance in the UK is specifically earmarked for health care. In the UK it's different and seems to go into a big pot. This needs resolving in the UK. In France you pay much more in (NI) contributions but the money has to come from somewhere.
France is touted as having one of the best systems in Europe, at least over here, is it not?

Do you know how much you pay towards your health coverage then? I hope I am not sounding intrusive or anything, but the statistics aren't really available online, and I'd like to have numbers to give people to compare to here when we talk about it. I figure if I can't find them online, might as well ask Europeans and see.
 
France is touted as having one of the best systems in Europe, at least over here, is it not?

Do you know how much you pay towards your health coverage then? I hope I am not sounding intrusive or anything, but the statistics aren't really available online, and I'd like to have numbers to give people to compare to here when we talk about it. I figure if I can't find them online, might as well ask Europeans and see.

The French health system is fantastic, I am English and experienced the NHS as well, the NHS is like a dinosaur in comparison.
I believe the amount is about 7.5% of one's salary in France
 
Might I ask, how exactly is NHS funded? Is there a percentage of your income tax earmarked for NHS in that you could tell how much of your tax goes toward it?

I'm very pro-single payer system and in the US that leads to people asking me questions about costs, taxes, etc.
Actually no... there is something called NI contributions - people think this pays for pensions and healthcare
But if you look at the total tax take from NI it nowhere close to covers the costs of pensions and helthcare
As such the NI contributions are lumped in with general tax take and funding is based on what it costs (typically we cut other sectors to spare the health service any / as many cuts - Id like to say its becuase we value health above all else but in truth its politics)

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So NHS is approx 18%
which is approximatley the same as the NI take
500px-UK_taxes.svg.png


Though as I say most people mistakenly believe NI Covers all of the welfare state benefits
this is because it was first introduced with the National Healthcare act
It was then expended under the welfare benefit act

he current system of National Insurance has its roots in the National Insurance Act 1911, which introduced the concept of benefits based on contributions paid by employed persons and their employer.[4] The chosen means of recording the contributions required the employer to buy special stamps from a Post Office and affix them to contribution cards. The cards formed proof of entitlement to benefits and were given to the employee when the employment ended, leading to the loss of a job often being referred to as being given your cards, a phrase which endures to this day although the card itself no longer exists.

Initially there were two schemes running alongside each other, one for health and pension insurance benefits (administered by "approved societies" including friendly societies and some trade unions) and the other for unemployment benefit which was administered directly by Government. The Beveridge Report in 1942 proposed expansion and unification of the welfare state under a scheme of what was called social insurance. In March 1943 Winston Churchill in a broadcast entitled "After the War" committed the government to a system of "national compulsory insurance for all classes for all purposes from the cradle to the grave."[5]

After the Second World War, the Attlee government pressed ahead with the introduction of the Welfare State, of which an expanded National Insurance scheme was a major component. As part of this process, responsibility passed in 1948 to the new Ministry of National Insurance. At that point a single stamp was introduced which covered all the benefits of the new Welfare State.

However the 19% comes nowhere close to funding health pensions and welfare which actually comprises more like 45% of all spending

FYI NI is charged over and above your normal income tax which ranges from 0-45% depending on income
NI is also charged in pay bands
 


Key points and implications of the Treasury reports

The Treasury uses a gravity model to predict that GDP per household will be lower by £4,300 by 2030 if the UK votes to leave the European Union.

This is because the Treasury assumes that the UK, the fifth largest economy in the world, will be unable to negotiate more favourable trading arrangements than currently exist with either the EU or the rest of the world.

The UK’s reduction in its share of exports to the EU from 54% in 2006 to 44% in 2015 is not consistent with the gravity model.

Greenland’s economy grew rapidly when it left the EU in 1985 and Ireland’s trade with the UK was unchanged by her exit from the sterling area in 1979. This is completely at odds with the gravity model’s predictions for the UK leaving the EU.

The same model would predict that the UK would be better off joining the euro and that every country in the world would be better off joining the European Union.

A similar model predicted that if Scotland left the UK, its trade with the rest of the UK would fall by 80%.

The Treasury uses a short - term model called a VAR model to predict an immediate recession if the UK votes to leave the EU. There is no causality in a VAR model – it merely projects forward existing trends in a data set.

The Treasury assumes – with no evidence, since there can be no evidence – that voting to leave the EU will constitute an economic shock equivalent to 50% of the shock of the Global Financial Crisis and that this shock lasts for two years. The biggest cause of a shock of this size would be the scare-mongering tone of the two Treasury reports.

The Treasury also assumes that there will be no policy response to this shock – unlike in the GFC when the government pumped £375 billion into the economy.

As a result of these two assumptions, the VAR model automatically and mechanically generates a recession that cuts UK GDP by 6% in two years’ time (relative to where the economy would be if the UK remained in the EU) – equivalent to 50% of UK trade with the EU – yet we will still be in the Single Market during this period.

The Treasury models assume that the UK’s population will not change between 2016 and 2030, despite Office for National Statistics predictions that up to 4 million more people will move to the UK over this period.



Now i know that Remainers are suddenly very trusting of official Treasury reports, but even they must acknowledge that there are grounds to question the validity of Osborne's conclusions. Or to put it more frankly, the intentional misleading of the public. Leave's argument of brining money back to the UK is at least rooted in a premise which exists, whereas the Treasury has just gone and made stuff up.

@Cheesy - Scottish-English trade to fall by 80%? You must've been laughing to the point of tears when they came out with that one.
 
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The French health system is fantastic, I am English and experienced the NHS as well, the NHS is like a dinosaur in comparison.
I believe the amount is about 7.5% of one's salary in France
Thank you! That's what I needed to know. I've tried to tell people that it would be about equal to what we pay for insurance premiums to get lesser health coverage. My insurance premiums are between 7% to 7.5% of my salary.
 
research into genetics takes us further and further into what is possible (eg if growing new organs becomes standard does everybody want a new heart - and what are the costs of that!) -
As someone who carries a gene, a particularly nasty strain of dilated cardiomyopathy, I hope that they can do this as quickly as possible. Not for me, but for my 2 young boys who unfortunately have inherited the gene. Ticking time-bomb which I can do absolutely nothing about for my boys, I just hope that the genetics experts can someday find a cure, whether that's a brand new heart that lasts longer than 10 years, or something else.

sorry for going off topic
 
Uk lost £1bn since last week just on the exchange rate

So we are at the level last witnessed in the distant past of 2014, and this after the Euro plummeted in value last summer. I don't suppose you did a play-by-play of that though, or saw it as a reason to discontinue the Eurozone.
 
So we are at the level last witnessed in the distant past of 2014, and this after the Euro plummeted in value last summer. I don't suppose you did a play-by-play of that though, or saw it as a reason to discontinue the Eurozone.

But as the UK economy is/or rather was doing better than the EU average we have to talk about recent history last 6 /8 months, the pound would have been much stronger currently without the fear of Brexit. Let's see what happens after the referendum - I'll have a wager that if the UK remains the pound will get stronger and if the UK leaves then the pound gets weaker
 
But as the UK economy is/or rather was doing better than the EU average we have to talk about recent history last 6 /8 months, the pound would have been much stronger currently without the fear of Brexit. Let's see what happens after the referendum - I'll have a wager that if the UK remains the pound will get stronger and if the UK leaves then the pound gets weaker

To be fair I think the Leave have admitted that is going to happen. Farage's defence was at least it was good for our exports.
 
I don't understand this talk of people living longer, it's as if this only happens in the UK, other countries have much better health services and people live longer there as well.
It's underfunded for a start, put some pennies on income tax and fund it from there, am sure the citizens of the UK would not complain - people would be happy and people should stop blaming the EU for UK inefficiency.

That wont work with tax shy brits
 
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