Branson is advertising on this site warning against Brexit. Too bad I think he is a tosser.
EU Referendum | UK residents vote today.
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I think maybe you misread the small print? EU rentals allow for a possible two years in which you may remain in the property while house hunting.
Germany, France and GB are the three strongest economies and the bargaining between those three heavily influenced almost all major decisions in the EU. I don´t want to diminish the influence of other countries, because their positions also mattered a lot. Still understanding the power dynamic between those three countries is crucial.
GB is the most (economically) liberal country and was often opposed too much integration and state led intervention. France is much more in favor of more central intervention in the economy (both domestically and in a European context) and fancied more integration (more central decision making, more subsidies and more regulation). Germany is somewhat in the middle. They always fancied more integration and more central decision making, but didn´t agree with France´s economic and fiscal policies. Till the creation of the Euro-Zone, Germany was almost something like a free-rider in the negotiations between those three powers, because the middle ground between France and GB was usually fairly close to Germany´s interest. They supported France´s push for more integration and were happy that GB defended the free market.
The Eurozone is a fairly good indication of an EU without GB. At the beginning Germany asserted its core interests against the interest of other major countries (balanced budgets; no transfer payments; strict fiscal policy that just focuses on inflation; independent ECB; I´d consider all those things "neo-liberal" ideas), but in the long run all those things eroded and there is little left, because France, Italy and Spain (+ various other smaller countries) have different ideas.
Spain´s and Italy´s economic and fiscal interest are much more aligned with France. Germany has to be a lot more confrontational and outspoken to pursue its interests and that is a fairly confliction position for German politicians who always promoted more integration and a stronger EU. Germany will struggle to be a successful advocate for free-market principles in the long run. Without the balancing factor of GB the outcome of all the grand bargainings will shifts to the left.
There might be a couple of smaller nations who fancy liberal economic policies and who might feel, that their positions get marginalized in an EU without GB. Discussing this in too much detail would go too far off topic and I am not following the national press of any of those countries (e.g. Czech Republic), so my view might be inaccurate anyway.
I think maybe you misread the small print? EU rentals allow for a possible two years in which you may remain in the property while house hunting.
Only houses are a lot easier to find in two years than negotiating global trade deals that are better than the ones we currently have in place, as a result of being in be EU.
The analogy is spot on. We are being told to quit something that has done more good for this country than bad. I trust "faceless" European diplomats to defend free speech, hold Google et. Al to account in terms of tax, defend human rights and ensure that work/life balance is enforced to a degree over partisan British politician who have a terrible record in this regard.
No doubt Europe is in a crisis at the moment. But so was Britain when we first joined it and this won't last forever. Vote Leave is simply a populist and short sighted position, pinning all this nations ailments on migrants.
You don't think they will?
I think maybe you misread the small print? EU rentals allow for a possible two years in which you may remain in the property while house hunting.
Then I'd slap him for wanting to move house on the basis that he didn't like the taps or the light.
Cameron interview on Sky now.
Not really surprising. It's not anyway different from stock markets. If there is big enough rumour, market will react.
That is the only answer even if immigration dropped under 100000. Build more houses, build higher, build denser. Lots of people can live and work in a small area which makes infrastructure go further. There isn't miles of tubing, cabling and pipes to access few people. If we had more housing wages wouldn't matter so much as most money people have goes on rent or mortgage.
The EU is guaranteeing jobs for everyone now is it?
I think they'll react based upon that they think a brexit is a crap idea and less so on sentiment
I detect a slight more nuance in your reply than your original reply. I still dont agree with a lot you argue and will provider mt arguments in more detail in due course.
He was more entertaining than Rooney and his cronies!
Who claimed such a thing? Free movement of workers and guaranteed full employment aren't the same thing at all.
Schrodinger's migrants are simultaneously stealing our jobs and sitting unemployed on the dole.
Huh? That don't make sense
Leaving EU will be the worst political choice made in my lifetime. It will affect our children and grandchildren for decades
Don't vote to leave just to have a go at the government.
Don't vote to leave just to have a go at the government.
Im still digesting a lot of the information, the cafe is actually one of the few places I can go to get honest opinions and not fluffed up scare tactics.
My current views are you're correct leaving the eu does seem to make little sense for the economy, not only that but Cameron would not have a clucking clue how to build a UK out of the EU but at the same time I feel Cameron has brought this upon his self.
There is no doubt a lot of the unrest is over the immigration issue, he had a big opportunity to bring this up with the other eu leaders and come up with a better solution
He out right failed on this, the UK has lost a lot of strength at the negotiating table, it'll be like "what you going to do ? Leave? You already threatened that once"
I guess that is a valid opinion.
For what it's worth, I hope GB stays in the EU for professional reasons. We import quite a bit from GB and I'd hate to start the whole customs bullshit with GB as well. It's bad enough with the stuff we get from the US.
This is mostly due to the lack of competence at the customs authorities, but still, it's one heck of a hassle considering that we trade with GB much, much more than with the US.
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I would be afraid of what would happen in regards to people needing visas for travel and work within Europe.
what about those UK nationals who live in other parts of Europe for work or retirement. What happens when those member states stop accepting their European medical card for example? All of those people would be returning to the UK and putting a drain on the NHS. There are around 400,000 ex-pats in Spain alone.
Consider those multi-national companies who want a European office and open in the likes of London, Manchester, Belfast. When the worker pool dries up for European languages (due to visa restrictions) they aren't going to hang around. it will be good news for Ireland where they can get those languages and offer special tax rates
people think its a way to clean up all the immigration problems but they haven't thought of the impacts on the flip side of that argument
"lets negotiate after we leave"
good luck with that policy
"lets negotiate after we leave"
good luck with that policy
On population pressures:
Net immigration makes up about 50% of our population growth. The population is growing naturally anyway, with extended life expectancy a significant contributor.
EU immigration makes up about 50% of our current net migration. 188,000 non EU migrants, 184,000 EU migrants, take away 40,000 British emigrants to give the 330,000 figure.
So even if we leave the EU and "take back our borders"* completely eliminating EU migration (which seems implausible given a trade deal will probably include some degree of freedom of movement), we would limit our population growth to about 75% of its current rate. In other words in 2015 it would still have grown by 420,000
Whenever people say concerns about immigration are not substantially founded upon racism and prejudice I'd like them to explain how a 25% drop (or 50% if we block all immigration, which is both implausible and unhealthy) in population growth will rescue our public services, housing market and wage competition.
* nutters
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Because they are going to make Britain Great Again... and you know what else they are going to build a wall - its going to be a big beautiful wall along the south coast and do you know who is going to pay for it - the EU because when they send their people over here they are not sending their doctors and nurses, they are not sending teachers and engineers no they are sending us Schroedinger's immigrants who are simultaneousness living off benefits because they are too lazy to work and stealing your job at the same time... and not only are these "so called people" filling up our schools with their children but at the same time sending back child benefits to the same children who are also living back home...
I think thats pretty much the crux of their argument... probably something about rivers of blood and ban muslins as well
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I have stopped watching this thread, but dip in and out whenever the latest morsel of whatever breaks in the news. Cameron getting a rough time last night is what's made me look today. Sounds like he survived it though.
Do you have any basis for such a concern though, any evidence at all for why visa-free travel will be denied?We are contemplating our withdrawal from a voluntary political union, not a declaration of war.
The United Kingdom has agreements with non-European countries waiving the necessity for visas, and so does the European Union.
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He did say visa free for travel and work... with whom (outside of the EU) do we have visa free work arrangements?
And would you suggest visa free work arrangements stay or go with the EU post brexit
It's all ifs and buts again, what happens if etc...there are a lot of places especially in the north east where I live that struggle to find work and are having refuges crammed into cheap housing in their area...this doesn't help the employment issue one bit...it means even more people scrapping for what little work there is.
These are the people that will be voting to leave the eu because it is failing them at the minute.
I think earlier someone posted there would be a few years of adjustment, it's not like a rug would be pulled from underneath those living abroad, and I honestly don't think it would effect them enough to want to move back to the UK.
It's sad to say that whatever the outcome is people will lose out someway or another. As things stand it's not working, leaving may not be the long term solution but it may spark enough of a stir to renegotiate certain policies
But that's a failing of government, not the EU
The EU is so, so, so much more than immigration. People reducing it to one issue is so far past mental that it really drives home the point that people should not be being asked to vote on this if this is the unintelligent way we're going to decide the future of our country.
At least this Referendum turned me onto Jonathan Pie...
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Sometimes I hope you really do leave, just to see the simple minded idiots rage when they realise this decision only meant that Great Britain became Germany's toyboy 
So because you think leaving the EU would only reduce immigration by 25% you come to the conclusion of 'Why bother'.
Lets say it did only reduce it by 25%, that is still a significant amount. I don't want us to stop immigration but I want us to be able to have the option to do that or reduce it if needed which isn't that case if we remain in the EU. Now it isn't the fault of immigration that we have a housing crisis and our public services are at bursting point but it is a contributing factor. The main issue is our useless government have not sustained the infrastructure and built the new housing required but we have come to a stage now where we cannot deny that there are not enough homes in this country and our NHS etc cannot cope with the strain so immigration does need to be slowed down, the influx at this rate is to many to soon.
If we can bring that number down by 50% or even by the 25% you mentioned while building up our infrastructure and building the housing required so we are better prepared for the population growth then that will serve us well in the future.
I often think it doesn't hit home to people that don't live in major cities or densely populated areas as they don't experience things like sitting in traffic for 2 hours to work and 2 hours home everyday just to travel a distance of 10 miles or not being able to get a doctors appointment for a month etc etc. So instead of appreciating some areas of the country are full up which is causing great frustration to the people living there, they just label anyone that wants to reduce immigration as xenophobic, which is extremely small minded.
We are currently playing catch up so we if we can reduce immigration, build what we need, rather than accepting the current numbers without any plan going forward, then think about opening the doors again once we are in a stronger position. I know it isn't quite that simple but the current rate cannot be sustained.
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I think it's a failing of the whole system, we seem to be taking on more than we can handle, and not in position to do anything about it.
I don't think Cameron can see as far north as m'Boro to give a shit you are right the government is massively at fault, but many here believe this is the only time our voices can be heard.
Apologies if my views come across simplistic I'm trying to use the caf to educate myself in this election, my head says stay heart says leave at the minute
I agree it's bigger but it's so big I can only take on one issue at a time in one post. people are allowed to have a priority on what issues effect them the most and collectively a decision will be made. Immigration might be effecting people's lives a lot more personally than it's effecting yours so what seems important to them may not to you and vice versa.
Said before I'm still very much on the fence and trying to put forward arguments from people I know and seeing what the thoughts are from others
Is it worth losing all of the benefits that we gain from the EU or ignoring the bigger picture and taking stock of the issue in its entirety simply to do something about immigration? Are we that short sighted? Seems like cutting your leg off because you hurt your toe, rather than dealing with the issue itself.
I don't think it will reduce immigration by 25%, but it is a fact that given current trends it could only limit UK population growth by, at most, 25%.
If that 25% reduction is so important now why not simply end all non-EU migration, which would also achieve a 25% reduction in population growth and is currently in our power to do so?
And when it comes to the burden on the NHS I believe that is primarily due to the natural population growth symptomatic of an ageing population rather than the result of immigration. I don't believe the numbers of working age people arriving in this country is the primary challenge population growth presents to the NHS. (This is just my own speculation)
I would have more sympathy for the people convinced cutting EU immigration is an important solution to problems such as traffic, housing prices, GP waiting times, etc if they offered the context of "this will help ease the growing burden by a quarter". But they don't. Areas with the lowest immigrant numbers are often those that express the greatest concern about immigration. Why do 26% of Britons - and 51% of UKIP supporters - think the government “should encourage immigrants and their families to leave Britain (including family members who were born in Britain)"? There may be legitimate concerns about immigration, but the prominence of the issue in our country (and around the world) is not founded upon those. It is founded on prejudice. It is right-wing populism. I don't believe calling that out is small-minded.
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Nothing to do with being xenophobic
Not really surprising to see half of UKIP supporters, concerning to see quarter of Brits but I guess also refreshing to see that 75% of Britains disagree.
^ I don't think anyone has said anything to warrant the sort of casual insinuations that have become a commonplace in this discussion.
@golden_blunder did also say travel, which is going to be of greater concern with voters. Remainders need to have done with their scaremongering, else they risk becoming the laughing stock that was our Prime Minister last night.
What rights people have in regard to employment will depend upon the deal we reach with the EU, but i have said on here on numerous occasions that some element of freedom of movement could still exist post-Brexit.
Indeed so.
One could also include: the ECJ and the EAW, the External Affairs Service, a flawed currency union, tax harmonisation, billions lost in foreign aid due to corruption/incompetence, a botched migration policy and shabby deals with Turkey. It is also the same greedy people who sought an increase in the EU budget despite the continent being gripped by austerity and hardship.
You, me, the Polish builders who my family hire when we wish to make improvement to a house, we are all incidental to those in Brussels. They are worth neither our support nor our taxes, and we'd be far better off starting over. Trade, consumer protections, human rights, the environment, we don't need the EU of 2016 to serve those aims.
I like how you left out the positives. Nothing like looking at the whole picture.
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