EU Referendum | UK residents vote today.

[sun_tzu]

Doesn't mean we have to have a Norway deal, we can negotiate our own deal.

well of course we can try to negotiate our own deal - but I would suggest that it wont be that easy a negotiation - plus we would have to try and negotiate the USA and China deals the EU have negotiated as well - I doubt we are in a strong position as fairly small country to negotiate separate deals with the three largest trading entities and get anything better than we had before - I certainly don't see it being a quick or easy process.
I certainly don't see the EU giving us free access to their markets whilst not applying regulations and not contributing financially.

 

[711]

Doesn't mean we have to have a Norway deal, we can negotiate our own deal.

Indeed, the terms offered to us could be much worse.
Modern Germany has shown it is willing to put principles before financial gain, and will want to show the rest of the EU that leavers will only lose out; the French hate us anyway and their public will support any moves their politicians make against us; and the newer EU members like Poland will not give a sausage without the most important thing to them, free movement of labour.
There are of course political reasons to leave the EU but anyone voting Out should be ready for financial sacrifices that could be huge, and the political gains may not be as great as they are claimed to be.

 

[Don't Kill Bill]

Indeed, the terms offered to us could be much worse.
Modern Germany has shown it is willing to put principles before financial gain, and will want to show the rest of the EU that leavers will only lose out; the French hate us anyway and their public will support any moves their politicians make against us; and the newer EU members like Poland will not give a sausage without the most important thing to them, free movement of labour.
There are of course political reasons to leave the EU but anyone voting Out should be ready for financial sacrifices that could be huge, and the political gains may not be as great as they are claimed to be.

Germany has benefited more than any other country from being in the EU and gains a massive competitive advantage through the low value of the Euro compared to the natural value of a currency of an economy like Germany's. The less productive economies in the EU pay for that success. Germany is in the EU through self interest and acts out of self interest just like every other nation. Can we please stop with the good European type argument as the Greek debacle clearly showed it is all bullshit.

If the Germans want to try to feck us if we leave then they would lose out every bit as badly as the UK did and they know it and are smarter than that. Frankly if the list of reasons for staying has to include that we are scared of what the Germans might do if we leave then we really should leave because that is some seriously weak shit.

Do the French hate us? Haters are going to hate and that is their problem and it doesn't strike me as good reason to think positively about the future inside the EU with them if they do.

The newer members of the EU like Poland want the UK to stay in as a counter balance to German dominance inside or outside that is going to remain the case.

All these countries trade to their advantage with the UK and they will want that to continue and if not then the EU does not to protect us from that threat. It has proven to be the exact opposite. We are trading less and less with Europe but can't make our own deals our hands are tied to for example farming interests at the expense of future grow areas.

Staying in the EU carries as great a risk to the UK as leaving. Which is why I can't make up my mind which way to vote. Europe is losing ground economically to comparable economic groups. We are unable to act as swiftly as we need to and all the bargaining power the EU has is made useless by the opposing strands of thought about what to use it for and then the recriminations when it all goes wrong.I have two sons in their twenties and I know this decision has the possibility to deeply effect their long term future. I am angered that the timing of this decision is based entirely on internal conservative politics but it is what it is.

Lastly the UK was right about the Euro and what it would do to southern Europe and we were right about Schengen and we will be right about were the lack of democratic accountability will lead in state politics in Europe. If the UK votes to leave it might be right about that as well whether I vote stay or leave I'm not going to be as sure about it as some people seem to be.

 

[Red Defence]

well of course we can try to negotiate our own deal - but I would suggest that it wont be that easy a negotiation - plus we would have to try and negotiate the USA and China deals the EU have negotiated as well - I doubt we are in a strong position as fairly small country to negotiate separate deals with the three largest trading entities and get anything better than we had before - I certainly don't see it being a quick or easy process.
I certainly don't see the EU giving us free access to their markets whilst not applying regulations and not contributing financially.

Indeed, the terms offered to us could be much worse.
Modern Germany has shown it is willing to put principles before financial gain, and will want to show the rest of the EU that leavers will only lose out; the French hate us anyway and their public will support any moves their politicians make against us; and the newer EU members like Poland will not give a sausage without the most important thing to them, free movement of labour.
There are of course political reasons to leave the EU but anyone voting Out should be ready for financial sacrifices that could be huge, and the political gains may not be as great as they are claimed to be.

It'll be interesting to see who comes out on the "leave" side. Unlikely they would lean towards leaving if we were going to do so badly afterwards.

 

[711]

It'll be interesting to see who comes out on the "leave" side. Unlikely they would lean towards leaving if we were going to do so badly afterwards.

Indeed. And the same for 'Stay' of course.

 

[Red Defence]

Indeed. And the same for 'Stay' of course.

That's not quite as interesting. Not many politicians will want to be seen to rock the boat, so to speak. Same for high profile figures who haven't got the courage to speak out (for many reasons) .

 

[711]

Fair enough. I'll give each 'Leave' opinion I read twice the weight of 'Stay' in future, I promise.

 

[711]

Germany has benefited more than any other country from being in the EU and gains a massive competitive advantage through the low value of the Euro compared to the natural value of a currency of an economy like Germany's. The less productive economies in the EU pay for that success. Germany is in the EU through self interest and acts out of self interest just like every other nation. Can we please stop with the good European type argument as the Greek debacle clearly showed it is all bullshit.

If the Germans want to try to feck us if we leave then they would lose out every bit as badly as the UK did and they know it and are smarter than that. Frankly if the list of reasons for staying has to include that we are scared of what the Germans might do if we leave then we really should leave because that is some seriously weak shit.

Do the French hate us? Haters are going to hate and that is their problem and it doesn't strike me as good reason to think positively about the future inside the EU with them if they do.

The newer members of the EU like Poland want the UK to stay in as a counter balance to German dominance inside or outside that is going to remain the case.

All these countries trade to their advantage with the UK and they will want that to continue and if not then the EU does not to protect us from that threat. It has proven to be the exact opposite. We are trading less and less with Europe but can't make our own deals our hands are tied to for example farming interests at the expense of future grow areas.

Staying in the EU carries as great a risk to the UK as leaving. Which is why I can't make up my mind which way to vote. Europe is losing ground economically to comparable economic groups. We are unable to act as swiftly as we need to and all the bargaining power the EU has is made useless by the opposing strands of thought about what to use it for and then the recriminations when it all goes wrong.I have two sons in their twenties and I know this decision has the possibility to deeply effect their long term future. I am angered that the timing of this decision is based entirely on internal conservative politics but it is what it is.

Lastly the UK was right about the Euro and what it would do to southern Europe and we were right about Schengen and we will be right about were the lack of democratic accountability will lead in state politics in Europe. If the UK votes to leave it might be right about that as well whether I vote stay or leave I'm not going to be as sure about it as some people seem to be.

Consideration of post-split European political attitude is pretty speculative, but I'm afraid your post hasn't changed my mind on that, good as it is.
As for future trade negotiations, yes europe as a whole exports more to us than vice versa, but UK trade is still a small proportion of each country's overall trade. For us on the other hand, European trade is more like half, it's absolutely vital. Negotiations would be the usual mexican stand-off, except we'd have a much smaller gun.
I haven't made my mind up either, I can see political reasons for both leaving and staying, but I just can't see the economic side going anywhere but badly outside.

 

[Drifter]

EU publishes draft UK reform deal

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35467479


June it is then.

 

[Ubik]

Good, get it over with.

 

[Smores]

My worry here as someone who'll vote to stay in is that Cameron is doing such a bad job of these supposed reforms that it'll push people towards voting to leave.

He's trying to implement his usual techniques of bullshittery and lies but it won't work as his own party will call him out on the crap he's spouting.

That meeting with Tusk must have been Cameron explaining that they don't need effective policy just anything he can spin into a soundbite.

 

[Red Defence]

My worry here as someone who'll vote to stay in is that Cameron is doing such a bad job of these supposed reforms that it'll push people towards voting to leave.

He's trying to implement his usual techniques of bullshittery and lies but it won't work as his own party will call him out on the crap he's spouting.

That meeting with Tusk must have been Cameron explaining that they don't need effective policy just anything he can spin into a soundbite.

You've got it right on there. Cam's usual method...

 

[Nick 0208 Ldn]

Sorry about the delay in responding, a rather nasty virus inhfected my PC and it took a few days to get back online again.

I must echo much of what @Don't Kill Bill said in his post above; many of the justifications which proponents of the EU here have advanced amount to little more than threats by those who claim to be our friends and allies. If anything, the possibility of such actions ought to discourage a country from wishing continue its membership.

I would contest that most Europeans would be happy with a trade agreement, as well as cooperation in such areas as the environment, science and human rights. How many of us see eithr value in, or the necessity of a vast bureaucracy and parliament?

What some don't appear to realise,, is that the UK is already being sidelined within the EU, and this drift can only worsen over time. Increasingly it is the Eurzone (dominated by Germany) that drives policy making in Brussels, or most most recently the Schengen states, we are part of neither. Advocates of the project see its survival in greater integration, in which event Britain becomes even more isolated. Because Cameron lacks the vision and intelligence to build a future that recognises both our strengths and those of Europe, he would have us pay billions for a benefit that grows dimmer by the year.

Just because we might be outside of the EU doesn't mean that we're pulling up the drawbridge, there will still be migrant labour and the exchange of ideas going both directions. What Brexit could allow though, is a more responsible outlook with regard to subsidies, immigration, TTIP e.t.c. Be it the steel industry, the discriminatory nature of present immigration policy toward non-EU citizens, American health firms or lower food standards, all could be looked at differently by an independent Britain.

Looking at the draft proposal announced today, Cameron shall have to be a veritable whirling Dervish to spin his way out of this one. Even his daft benefits cap has been watered down.


As for my voting Green...in part it was because i didn't voting for any of the other parties. lol However i do also agree with their emphasis on environmental matters, as well as some of their social policies. *shrugs* It had to be enough.

 

[DOTA]

As for my voting Green...in part it was because i didn't voting for any of the other parties. lol However i do also agree with their emphasis on environmental matters, as well as some of their social policies. *shrugs* It had to be enough.

Personally, I think 'the rest are annoying me, they say the occasional thing I agree with and are currently largely harmless' is as good a reason as any other for casting a vote.

 

[Cheesy]

Sorry about the delay in responding, a rather nasty virus inhfected my PC and it took a few days to get back online again.

I must echo much of what @Don't Kill Bill said in his post above; many of the justifications which proponents of the EU here have advanced amount to little more than threats by those who claim to be our friends and allies. If anything, the possibility of such actions ought to discourage a country from wishing continue its membership.

I would contest that most Europeans would be happy with a trade agreement, as well as cooperation in such areas as the environment, science and human rights. How many of us see eithr value in, or the necessity of a vast bureaucracy and parliament?

What some don't appear to realise,, is that the UK is already being sidelined within the EU, and this drift can only worsen over time. Increasingly it is the Eurzone (dominated by Germany) that drives policy making in Brussels, or most most recently the Schengen states, we are part of neither. Advocates of the project see its survival in greater integration, in which event Britain becomes even more isolated. Because Cameron lacks the vision and intelligence to build a future that recognises both our strengths and those of Europe, he would have us pay billions for a benefit that grows dimmer by the year.

Just because we might be outside of the EU doesn't mean that we're pulling up the drawbridge, there will still be migrant labour and the exchange of ideas going both directions. What Brexit could allow though, is a more responsible outlook with regard to subsidies, immigration, TTIP e.t.c. Be it the steel industry, the discriminatory nature of present immigration policy toward non-EU citizens, American health firms or lower food standards, all could be looked at differently by an independent Britain.

Looking at the draft proposal announced today, Cameron shall have to be a veritable whirling Dervish to spin his way out of this one. Even his daft benefits cap has been watered down.


As for my voting Green...in part it was because i didn't voting for any of the other parties. lol However i do also agree with their emphasis on environmental matters, as well as some of their social policies. *shrugs* It had to be enough.

Fair points. I think this is part of Cameron's drawbacks on the issue. He comes across as someone who passionately wants to be involved in the EU...except from loads of parts that he doesn't want to be involved in because he doesn't really like them. And it's fine to be against certain aspects of the EU, but he strikes me as someone who's kind of only half-heartedly in it, but really wants to believe he's into the whole thing, if that makes sense.

And I'd agree about the Greens. Considering doing the same with them in Scotland in May.

 

[Ubik]

Who's going to be left to lead the out campaign at this rate?

 

[Cheesy]

I'd have thought Farage was a natural candidate...but then UKIP are incredibly divisive, and he probably doesn't want to seem too dictatorial on the issue.

 

[Ubik]

Exactly, if he's leading it then remain's already won.

 

[Nick 0208 Ldn]

Of course a very good constituency MP can sometimes surmount conflicts with the party to which they are affiliated, although i've never been faced with such.

Fair points. I think this is part of Cameron's drawbacks on the issue. He comes across as someone who passionately wants to be involved in the EU...except from loads of parts that he doesn't want to be involved in because he doesn't really like them. And it's fine to be against certain aspects of the EU, but he strikes me as someone who's kind of only half-heartedly in it, but really wants to believe he's into the whole thing, if that makes sense.

Cameron is neither fanatically supportive of the project, nor sufficiently capable as a leader to push for a course contrary to the established order, so instead he tries to sell the impression of change if you will. With the Eurozne in a mess and Schengen unravelling, the circumstances favour a more sceptical approach.

Who's going to be left to lead the out campaign at this rate?

Do they necessarily want just any member of the Cabinet? Aside from Boris, how many would stand out when it comes to communicating the message? Need it solely be a politician.

For instance, i would expect to see someone like Sir James Dyson feature prominently in campaign broadcasts.

 

[DOTA]

Think people are disinclined to attach themselves to a losing cause.

I really don't see how this is going to be close, once we get down to it. You've got both big business and us lefty idealists on the same side. When the self proclaimed voices of reason and morality agree on something, it's hard to argue against without looking like an outlier.

 

[Ubik]

Do they necessarily want just any member of the Cabinet? Aside from Boris, how many would stand out when it comes to communicating the message? Need it solely be a politician.

Well therein lies my point, the pool with which they're drawing from is already fairly shallow, and no-one's standing out even from that. It could be someone from outside politics, but still, who? Digby Jones? James Dyson? Maybe someone can make a name for themselves, but it's not looking great is it.

 

[711]

Pity Bernard Manning's not around any more.

 

[Cheesy]

Cameron is neither fanatically supportive of the project, nor sufficiently capable as a leader to push for a course contrary to the established order, so instead he tries to sell the impression of change if you will. With the Eurozne in a mess and Schengen unravelling, the circumstances favour a more sceptical approach.

Which is probably part of the Leave campaigns problem. Even though Cameron himself won't be the "In" campaign leader, he is undoubtedly its most prominent figure...being PM and all. And when the most prominent figure for a campaign admits himself that he'd maybe be willing to change if he doesn't get changes he's wanting...well, it doesn't exactly send a strong message.

 

[Cheesy]

Think people are disinclined to attach themselves to a losing cause.

I really don't see how this is going to be close, once we get down to it. You've got both big business and us lefty idealists on the same side. When the self proclaimed voices of reason and morality agree on something, it's hard to argue against without looking like an outlier.

I think a lot of the current immigration rows and Euro-skepticism mean that it'll be fairly close, but I agree that with the vast majority of political parties and the establishment in general supporting the EU, the "In" side will pull through in the end.

I think there'll be some similarities to the independence referendum, actually. The losing side will probably look a lot more united in their cause and will win most of the debates they're in, gathering a fair bit of support along the way, but eventually losing in a slightly close, but still relatively comfortable, victory for the status quo.

 

[Nick 0208 Ldn]

I really don't see how this is going to be close, once we get down to it. You've got both big business and us lefty idealists on the same side. When the self proclaimed voices of reason and morality agree on something, it's hard to argue against without looking like an outlier.

There is actually a good deal of resentment amongst some unions over the EU's actions in recent years, particularly with regard to Greece. The RMT has already declared his intent to campaign for Brexit.

Big business wants cheap Labour and TTIP, both are things which the EU facilitates. The left claims to oppose such, yet many who profess this belief' are likely to give succour to the same.

 

[Ubik]

I think a lot of the current immigration rows and Euro-skepticism mean that it'll be fairly close, but I agree that with the vast majority of political parties and the establishment in general supporting the EU, the "In" side will pull through in the end.

I think there'll be some similarities to the independence referendum, actually. The losing side will probably look a lot more united in their cause and will win most of the debates they're in, gathering a fair bit of support along the way, but eventually losing in a slightly close, but still relatively comfortable, victory for the status quo.

Salmond and Sturgeon are two of the best political operators around and were able to tie the campaign to a romantic notion of freedom and identity from the overbearing Westminster and England. With this, it's basically about immigrants. I know folk like Nick have genuine grievances over sovereignty, but that isn't the argument that gets anywhere with the public.

 

[Nick 0208 Ldn]

Well therein lies my point, the pool with which they're drawing from is already fairly shallow, and no-one's standing out even from that. It could be someone from outside politics, but still, who? Digby Jones? James Dyson? Maybe someone can make a name for themselves, but it's not looking great is it.

What of the Remain campaign's roster? In this era of insurgent politics and a jaded ineffectual establishment, i'd question whether a line-up consisting of the same old faces desirable.

This proposed date of June is interesting too, as the migrant crisis is likely to have intensified once more.

Finally, there is the matter of turnout to be considered, my guess (a bit of hope too) is that the Eurosceptics will be more committed.

 

[Ubik]

What of the Remain campaign's roster?

In this era of insurgent politics and a jaded ineffectual establishment, i'd question whether a line-up consisting of the same old faces desirable. This proposed date of June is interesting too, as the migrant crisis will have intensified once more.

There is also turnout, my guess (a bit of hope too) is that the Eurosceptics will be more committed.

Well, pretty much everyone else. As long as the likes of Blair, Corbyn and Clegg are kept in a cupboard it should be alright on that front.

 

[sun_tzu]

What of the Remain campaign's roster? In this era of insurgent politics and a jaded ineffectual establishment, i'd question whether a line-up consisting of the same old faces desirable.

This proposed date of June is interesting too, as the migrant crisis is likely to have intensified once more.

Finally, there is the matter of turnout to be considered, my guess (a bit of hope too) is that the Eurosceptics will be more committed.

The sooner the better as far as I'm concerned... Though the inevitable exchange rate fluctuations over the next few months will be an impact on my business it's better than another 18 months of uncertainty.
I think we will stay and that's certainly the way I will be voting
Turnout will be pretty good I think

 

[Classical Mechanic]

The real hard left believe the EU is little more than a neoliberal wet dream. Corbyn was supposed to be a Eurosceptic.

I am unsure of which way to vote. It is fundamentally undemocratic to have unelected European bodies determining British law. The only reason I can think of staying in is because of the mess and economic damage that may occur if we leave.

 

[Cheesy]

Salmond and Sturgeon are two of the best political operators around and were able to tie the campaign to a romantic notion of freedom and identity from the overbearing Westminster and England. With this, it's basically about immigrants. I know folk like Nick have genuine grievances over sovereignty, but that isn't the argument that gets anywhere with the public.

Which is a very, very hot issue at the moment. If the "In" campaign fail to unite and don't produce a convincing argument, it'll be quite close.

 

[Ubik]

Which is a very, very hot issue at the moment. If the "In" campaign fail to unite and don't produce a convincing argument, it'll be quite close.

But it's something that views are already settled on, is my point. It's not something that you'd think would provide a surge over a campaign as happened with the independence referendum. Consider the issues surrounding it in the last year - millions of refugees/migrants into Europe, the Calais "jungle", the Paris attack and Cologne at new year, it's been about as bad a year can be with regards to immigration sentiment.

 

[Cheesy]

But it's something that views are already settled on, is my point. It's not something that you'd think would provide a surge over a campaign as happened with the independence referendum. Consider the issues surrounding it in the last year - millions of refugees/migrants into Europe, the Calais "jungle", the Paris attack and Cologne at new year, it's been about as bad a year can be with regards to immigration sentiment.

True, although I'm not really sure a surge is necessarily needed. I'd still consider "In" to be the favourites, but the Leave campaign have a much better starting point than the Yes campaign did. Some polls have had them relatively close.

 

[Ubik]

True, although I'm not really sure a surge is necessarily needed. I'd still consider "In" to be the favourites, but the Leave campaign have a much better starting point than the Yes campaign did. Some polls have had them relatively close.

Definitely agree there, they basically need a solid lead before the campaign to stand a chance I think. Unless, of course, something really awful happens again, in which case feck.

 

[Nick 0208 Ldn]

David Cameron to MPs today:

"Don’t take a view because of what your constituency association might say, or you’re worried about a boundary review, or you think it might be advantageous this way or that way. Do what’s in your heart, if you think it’s right for Britain then do that.”

 

[Nick 0208 Ldn]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...itains-right-to-deport-foreign-criminals.html

The danger in stories like these is not the specific cases themselves, but rather the extent to which they highlight weakness or ineptitude on the part of the government. The timing isn't brilliant for Cameron either, nor Theresa May.

 

[Don't Kill Bill]

The thing I don't get about the 4 years before you can claim benefits negotiation is this.

If it is against the right to free movement then how come its OK if the majority of EU countries agree to it?

Either it does infringe the right or it doesn't.

If it doesn't then the EU has no say in the matter.

If it does then the EU courts will uphold a claim and nothing the rest of the EU governments say can make it legal.

Am I missing something?

 

[Red Defence]

No, don't think so.

Don't see how it can be against the right to free movement anyway. Doesn't prevent anyone from moving anywhere as far as I can see.

 

[Cheesy]

Interesting.

 

[The Purley King]

I will vote to leave regardless, but can't believe Cameron is even considering a vote this summer.
The influx of immigrants will be higher than ever when it starts getting warmer again, so will be right in the forefront of everyones minds.