Then look at it in terms of how big a part of our economy is trade with them, and how big a part of their economy is trade with us. People essentially skew their perspective on whose hand is better in that negotiation based on which side they lean towards.
EU Referendum | UK residents vote today.
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Just one example , forgetting trade agreements and what the Uk would have to pay to have a trade agreement with the EU.
One almost certain thing that will happen is that the pound will lose value. Thus being a nett importer from the EU and the pound drops to 1.10 or 1.20 against the Euro (and against the US$ ) the cost of buying from Europe for the 8% difference could cost the Uk 20 or 30% more and they think they're going to save money by not paying the fees to Brussels, ... frightening
The bigger player always chooses the rules.
Also, EU will be 26 states. Only two of them (Germany and Netherlands) have actually a big trade with UK. The other states would want everything in the package (including immigration) in the new deals. Have no doubt about that.
Who's been telling you porkies this time, come to France and experience the wonderful national health service which is inside the EU
Again, you are wrong. The UK has never had a referendum on the EU and signed up to a common market, the other countries in the EU are so sure about the support for it that they never ask their own peoples consent to it.
The agreement between the UK and France on border controls on the Tunnel are between the UK and France. At no point did the French say that this deal was dependent on the UK remaining in the EU and to try and say now that it did is a straight forward lie. If you are comfortable with that kind of behaviour then so be it but lets not pretend it is anything other than what it is, a self defeating threat by people who don't like democracy and assume that if they make up enough shit about what happens to the UK if it leaves the EU they can cow its population into voting to stay.
Nor do I think you can lecture the UK about xenophobia while living in a country with the current levels of support for the National Front prevalent in France, I would think shutting up about supposed UK xenophobia would be in order.
I am sad that a decision for the British people to make about how they are governed and who governs them has descended into you calling people racist because they disagree with you, that threatening all kinds of stupid reactions is the only way you can make a case to stay. I can only think that the idea scares you on some level and this is a knee jerk reaction and I hope you can come to terms with it if it happens.
For sure there's be a short term shock in terms of currency, but 20 - 30% more to buy from the EU?
Yes, but that makes me more confident. The UK response to tariffs from the EU will hurt the main player disproportionately.
In theory its 26 equal partners in reality nothing which hurts German interests ever gets very far does it ?
To be fair when we dropped out of the ERM it was frightening how much that helped the UK economy.
It depends though. Obviously Germany is the most important state (which strangely, I think is the reason why UK wants to leave, cause they aren't the main lords of the union) and can bully some states, but then states have to look to their interests. We have seen repeatedly even small states making trouble in EU (didn't Greece threaten to veto any new membership if EU doesn't accept Cyprus) so who knows what will happen.
What is almost sure though, is that it will be a worse deal than the current one. And at the same time, I can see a lot of American cooperates reallocating their European headquarters from UK to other countries (maybe Ireland will be the big winner in that aspect).
Its hopeless trying to convince the Pro EU brigade in this thread of anything. Any valid points about negatives for remaining or positives for leaving aren't taken seriously. Wasting your breath. I cant really talk though as nothing will be able to convince me to stay and people set on remaining wont change their minds either, very hard to change anyone's beliefs no matter how wrong they may be.
In December the pound was €1.43 to the £ - since fears of a Brexit gathered momentum the pound has fallen about 10% - if it actually leaves it will fall, by how much, is anybody's guess but at best another 10%. What if it dropped below parity? Taking into account some horrendous figures have been posted by EU countries , France recently had it's worse figures in 3 years and the pound was still losing ground on the Euro
Will someone please give a positive thing that will actually happen if the UK leaves the EU that is actually realistic.
You make your bed, and you'll have to lie in it, won't affect me , just trying to offer some sensible advice. Don't come crying when it all goes horrendously wrong.
Fortunately I still have faith that are enough sensible people still left in the UK
I don't know which way I am going to vote, but I can't stand the total bullshit arguments being made in this thread. There is a genuine argument to be had but when you get called a racist for making fairly obvious counter points it shows how small people shrink too when the accepted norm gets questioned.
You do not know it will fall. Once the uncertainty is over it could just as easily increase in value. Everything you are saying is guess work and your talking like these are facts.
You were and still are criticising the French for something they haven't even done and then you're trying to accuse me of being xenophobic because I live in France and Marine Le Pen happens to live in France too, are you insane?
You don't follow currency experts then, just listen to Boris
Is this a rhetorical question?
Pot, kettle, or something.
Hang on, you are the one saying they are going to do those things and the UK should vote to stay because France will. I'm the one saying they won't do stupid xenophobic things just because the UK votes to leave.
Voting to leave isn't xenophobic and having concerns about immigration isn't UK specific or xenophobic.
Your not offering any sensible advice your just throwing out there what you think might happen. You have claimed that our border control agreement with France is down to the EU and will stop if we leave when this is not true, it is a bilateral agreement with the UK and franc, the French have even come out and said this would not change. You claim Sterling will devalue by 20%, this is another guess.
Positives for leaving the EU, there are many. The obvious one that most talk about is controlling our boarders and for those that say it wont make a difference, it will. When Turkey becomes a member of the EU and millions more people start flooding over here we would have power to refuse citizenship if we Brexit, in the EU we wont have that power. TTIP, if we Brexit we will likely not be part of this or will at least get to make some decisions on it and find out what it entails before it is just forced on us. The huge fees we pay just to be a member of the EU can be spent on our public services. Our fishing industry which was huge before the EU and now has been largely taken away from us, it will be back in British hands. There are many many positives.
Good luck with the B&B
I know you have to be insane to be in this thread at all.
For those who think that UK won't pay and won't be 'run' by Brussels if they Brexit, here are two interesting articles:
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/dec/16/britain-would-be-diminished-by-leaving-eu
http://www.theguardian.com/commenti...-reality-uk-voters-seduced-by-norwegian-model
The second one is from a Norwegian ex-minister who now lives in Switzerland. Obviously, he is agenda driven cause Norwotzeland needs UK to remain in EU.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/dec/16/britain-would-be-diminished-by-leaving-eu
http://www.theguardian.com/commenti...-reality-uk-voters-seduced-by-norwegian-model
The second one is from a Norwegian ex-minister who now lives in Switzerland. Obviously, he is agenda driven cause Norwotzeland needs UK to remain in EU.
Lets blame auto correct on that one. But typical response from you when you don't have any valid arguments to come back with. You have made statements that aren't true. You asked for positives for Brexit and I gave you some.
Well that post settles the who can sink furthest fastest contest.
EDIT.
Just to be clear I am referring to Revan's disgusting post which he now seems to have deleted.
EDIT.
Just to be clear I am referring to Revan's disgusting post which he now seems to have deleted.
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I think that the border control agreements of the UK and France have everything to do with them both being EU member states. As soon as the UK leaves the EU and enforces visa restrictions on French nationals, or when the UK opt out of EU immigration number agreements, etc, then the French will opt out of any agreements in respect of (amongst other things) border control. And that's just France. France is not the only EU country from which the UK can be accessed. I predict it will turn every terminal in Britain into a traffic jam of humans and vehicles. Getting in & out of the country will be a very expensive and time consuming nightmare. And after a few years Britain will be back at the negotiating table, caving in to demands made by the EU about visa restrictions and immigration...
Like between the EU and the US and every other country outside the EU?
The only positive I can see about leaving is the possibility of duty free on my increasingly infrequent visits to the hellhole known as Little Britain...
Yes! I can drive to Switzerland by car without border control because of the agreements made between the EU and Switzerland about items such as visa restrictions and immigration quotas, in order for the Swiss to have acces to the EU market.
As for the US, they are in a very different situation from the UK. For one the US is more or less self sufficient. Secondly, the US is the biggest economy in the world and has a far greater bargaining position then the UK will ever have.
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What about Canada then, every point of entry to Canada is jammed is it, a time consuming nightmare with the Canadians begging to join the EU. Its empty threats and nonsense Rams.
67 billion net in sales to the UK mainly from the most powerful nation in the EU and its main policy maker. Yet you predict that the UK is going to grind to a halt because of visas it decides to have the same arrangements with EU countries as it has with the rest of the world.
Canada is in an entirely different situation from the UK. For one the US does not demand the same concessions from Canada as the EU does from countries like Switzerland or Norway.
The UK depends heavily on the EU market. The London financial market depends heavily on free movement within the EU of EU nationals. And yes, without making agreements with the EU, the UK's trade with the EU will become a logistic nightmare. I mean, it's all very for the Brexit campaign to say they can easily reach new agreements with the EU (or whoever for that matter) without asking the opinions of the EU member on how those agreements can be reached. Again I point to the demands made by the EU towards countries such as Switzerland, Norway, Turkey, etc.
Does the EU have net sales of 67 billion pounds with Norway, Switzerland or Turkey?
If the UK votes to leave I don't think any of the problems you propose will happen. We may not end up with a free trade deal with the EU but I don't think that will mean we don't trade at all with the EU. We will have border controls with the EU just the same as we do most of the world which seems to work out just fine.
Whether it is the right thing to do or not is debatable and I can see arguments for remaining but this borders grinding to a halt and being forced to accept free movement after a leave vote isn't very convincing. I'm sure that countries which want the UK to remain will say all sorts of crap before the vote like with Obama ,I don't give much weight to it.
If the UK votes to leave I don't think any of the problems you propose will happen. We may not end up with a free trade deal with the EU but I don't think that will mean we don't trade at all with the EU. We will have border controls with the EU just the same as we do most of the world which seems to work out just fine.
Whether it is the right thing to do or not is debatable and I can see arguments for remaining but this borders grinding to a halt and being forced to accept free movement after a leave vote isn't very convincing. I'm sure that countries which want the UK to remain will say all sorts of crap before the vote like with Obama ,I don't give much weight to it.
You really don't seem to like Turkey and it's citizens do you? You even want to deprive Fenerbahçe of Nani ? Seriously ?
Can you imagine a Tory government spending "The huge fees we pay" on public services ? Or do you mean more weapons for police and army ? You'll probably need em. As for the fishing industry - if i'm not too far off the mark the last time the British fishing industry could be considered great was probably in the 1970s when there were still a few fish about and before Thatcher took her axe to the thing with her neo-liberal grace.
I think the reality is that the EU will not accept the UK to go cherry picking. The UK will cave in on matters such as immigration quota's and visa restrictions because the UK needs the EU a lot more than the EU needs the UK. The truth is that the UK lost its super power status a long time ago.
You accuse others of making facile arguments but can then compare 164 land border points with 1 and keep a straight face. Did you miss the chaos the Channel Tunnel stoppages caused last year with operation stack etc? Have you been caught in Saint Pancras when they have to cancel the Eurostar and seen how fast it backs up?
Guess which party he is a member of? Especially like his 'I'm not racist...my brother married someone Jewish' line.
http://m.dailyecho.co.uk/news/14445878.Huge_swastika_poster_hung_on_house/
http://m.dailyecho.co.uk/news/14445878.Huge_swastika_poster_hung_on_house/
'Managed migration' can indeed be beneficial i agree, however unmanaged immigration has simply been a vehicle for exploitation. People like yourself and Bury Red are quick to make insinuations of xenophobia and racism, yet it is your left-wing conceit which throws innocent workers to the wolves. The last decade-and-a-half has been host to wage depression and unemployment among the resident labour market, and the abuse of those brought in to take their place, but what do you care?
Unsurprisingly, you are far too forgiving of Brussels in this matter. The poorest in Greece has suffered unnecessarily as a direct result of EU policies (denying them either withdrawal from the Euro or manageable loan repayments). They imposed hardship upon the most vulnerable people in that country, and all to suit a flawed currency union. What is worse still, is that they very same individuals have been dumping the migrant crisis into their laps to boot. The cheek of it is something to behold. Brussels was little better than a loan shark.
Nick, come on, we both know that has the sum total of feck all to do with immigration.
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