EU Referendum | UK residents vote today.

[rcoobc]

Everyone talks as if the Tories are the only political party in the UK. If we do vote to leave then Cam et al will have their work cut out sorting the EU exit terms, so they won't have much time left to alter WTD laws. After they have sorted out withdrawal from the EU we'll be back to new elections. If Cameron starts fiddling adversely with any laws before 2020 the Tories may well just get voted out. Labour won't change the WTD.

I personally would say the tories will probably be in power for another term after this, even if they have to form a coalition to do it.

 

[Red Defence]

Maybe....depends on what happens between now and 2020. It's definitely not written in stone though.

 

[Adebesi]

I can't see a scenario where the Tories cock up enough to let this Labour Party in. They could tear themselves to shreds over Europe, eradicate all benefits for everyone on income below 80k and have disabled people interned in camps and they'd still get back in.

 

[Jippy]

I personally would say the tories will probably be in power for another term after this, even if they have to form a coalition to do it.

Fingers crossed?

 

[Silva]

I can't see a scenario where the Tories cock up enough to let this Labour Party in. They could tear themselves to shreds over Europe, eradicate all benefits for everyone on income below 80k and have disabled people interned in camps and they'd still get back in.

A minor property crash and they're fecked though.

 

[711]

I can't see a scenario where the Tories cock up enough to let this Labour Party in. They could tear themselves to shreds over Europe, eradicate all benefits for everyone on income below 80k and have disabled people interned in camps and they'd still get back in.

Events dear boy, events. (Harold Macmillan).

 

[sun_tzu]

A minor property crash and they're fecked though.

how so?

 

[Silva]

how so?

Was just a crap joke, their voters tolerating pretty much every horrid feck-up they can possibly make, bar one that devalues their house slightly.

 

[Don't Kill Bill]

Europe is bigger then us, they'll dictate terms

This might be out of line but I don't think we should send you to negotiate if we do vote to leave.

We would look to do a deal which is mutually beneficial and if the worst came to the worst they put tariffs on some exports and we put some on imports and the pound goes up or down accordingly to balance the difference.

If the vote was to leave, then no one going to work out the trade terms is going to have a mandate to accept all the things we just voted against being imposed on us by diktat. The EU will be butt hurt about the whole thing and then it will all calm down a deal will be struck and long term success or failure will depend on how we deal with the rest of the world and our own internal matters.

There is always a risk that when you take control of your own destiny you could mess things up but who doesn't in the end prefer that.

 

[NinjaFletch]

This might be out of line but I don't think we should send you to negotiate if we do vote to leave.

We would look to do a deal which is mutually beneficial and if the worst came to the worst they put tariffs on some exports and we put some on imports and the pound goes up or down accordingly to balance the difference.

If the vote was to leave, then no one going to work out the trade terms is going to have a mandate to accept all the things we just voted against being imposed on us by diktat. The EU will be butt hurt about the whole thing and then it will all calm down a deal will be struck and long term success or failure will depend on how we deal with the rest of the world and our own internal matters.

There is always a risk that when you take control of your own destiny you could mess things up but who doesn't in the end prefer that.

I think thats just ridiculously idealistic though.

The UK comes to the EU with an incredibly weak hand, and everybody and their dog knows it. If they do a deal with us, which they have no obligation to do, then its on their terms. Even so, we may get a marginally better position out of it, who knows, but would that be worth not having a say in how decisions that would effect that position in future are made?

 

[Don't Kill Bill]

I think thats just ridiculously idealistic though.


The UK comes to the EU with an incredibly weak hand, and everybody and their dog knows it. If they do a deal with us, which they have no obligation to do, then its on their terms. Even so, we may get a marginally better position out of it, who knows, but would that be worth not having a say in how decisions that would effect that position in future are made?

I would counter that your view is defeatist but I haven't made my mind up as to how I'm voting yet.

The obligation on the EU is the same as the one on the UK. They want to make money doing business in our market and we in theirs. They are the net beneficiary of the current deal and all we are asking after a leave vote, is that the terms are reasonable and we do a trade deal and not some overbearing all encompassing sovereign power share.

It will happen because after a leave vote it is the only game in town unless the EU wants a trade war with embargo's and what not. I don't see BMW enjoying that at all. It is just a complete fallacy to suggest it really.

I suppose it comes down to whether you see the EU continuing the way it is but suddenly doing all the right things or whether the world trade game is changing and the EU is now outmoded.

 

[Will Absolute]

I think thats just ridiculously idealistic though.

The UK comes to the EU with an incredibly weak hand, and everybody and their dog knows it. If they do a deal with us, which they have no obligation to do, then its on their terms. Even so, we may get a marginally better position out of it, who knows, but would that be worth not having a say in how decisions that would effect that position in future are made?

The dogs don't know it, since it's not true. The UK is the world's fifth largest economy and imports more from the EU than it exports - that means the EU has more to lose than the UK if the shit hits the fan.

'Punitive sanctions' against Britain are a fantasy. The EU would be cutting off its nose to spite its face, and no useful purpose would be served. Governments don't send large numbers of their citizens to the dole queue out of pique.

 

[711]

The dogs don't know it, since it's not true. The UK is the world's fifth largest economy and imports more from the EU than it exports - that means the EU has more to lose than the UK if the shit hits the fan.

'Punitive sanctions' against Britain are a fantasy. The EU would be cutting off its nose to spite its face, and no useful purpose would be served. Governments don't send large numbers of their citizens to the dole queue out of pique.

They do if it's popular with the majority of their voters.

Thatcher made a career out of it.

 

[Bury Red]

The dogs don't know it, since it's not true. The UK is the world's fifth largest economy and imports more from the EU than it exports - that means the EU has more to lose than the UK if the shit hits the fan.

'Punitive sanctions' against Britain are a fantasy. The EU would be cutting off its nose to spite its face, and no useful purpose would be served. Governments don't send large numbers of their citizens to the dole queue out of pique.

The UK is the worlds fifth largest economy based on GDP true, but take it on GDP per capita and we drop rapidly, factor in cost of living so GDP per capita PPP and we drop below most of Europe. Yes we import far more than we export because we killed all our own industry, our governments showing they are more than happy throwing people on the dole queue and have been for over 30 years.

I've just finished a meal in a German hotel with my German, Russian, French, Slovakian and Dutch colleagues and the Brexit was high on the topics of discussion and they would all like us to stay, think we'd be stupid to leave but they're certainly not worried about what they will lose if we go, they'll laugh their arses off at our idiotic decision if we do decide to leave and then get on with their lives while we fight to avoid sliding further into the deep abyss that our ludicrous sense of national pride left when it impacted on day to day reality.

Sure if we leave the EU they would like to keep selling to us but that doesn't necessarily give us the whip hand, it's not like we're all going to suddenly rush out and buy British cars, phones, TVs etc since we no longer make any of them. It will just mean Citroen, Fiat, Renault, Peugeot, VW, Grundig, Bosch, Nokia etc will have to compete on a more level playing field with the likes of Toyota, Nissan, Samsung, LG etc but realistically it will probably mean that it just ends up costing us more for whatever we do end up buying thus driving us further down the GDP per capita PPP table as our cost of living rises yet again.

 

[NinjaFletch]

The dogs don't know it, since it's not true. The UK is the world's fifth largest economy and imports more from the EU than it exports - that means the EU has more to lose than the UK if the shit hits the fan.

'Punitive sanctions' against Britain are a fantasy. The EU would be cutting off its nose to spite its face, and no useful purpose would be served. Governments don't send large numbers of their citizens to the dole queue out of pique.

In isolation yes, but theres bigger things at play here. European disunity and discontent is high. Plenty of countries, particularly eastern bloc ones, are moving if not towards the exit, then towards opposition. What sort of message does it send out if the UK votes to leave and gets a far better deal than if it stayed in? There'd be referendums in half of Europe within the month.

It wouldn't so much be cutting its nose of to spit its face, it would be cutting its nose of to prevent its eyes and half its ear falling off.

Have the Leave campaign actually set out a plan for how they're going to 'get a better deal out of the EU' yet, btw? I've had a look on both campaigns websites and can find nothing. It seems like they have no clue how anything they say is going to happen is going to happen and hope to just be able to deflect by shouting 'SCAREMONGERING' until the referendum.

 

[Don't Kill Bill]

The UK is the worlds fifth largest economy based on GDP true, but take it on GDP per capita and we drop rapidly, factor in cost of living so GDP per capita PPP and we drop below most of Europe. Yes we import far more than we export because we killed all our own industry, our governments showing they are more than happy throwing people on the dole queue and have been for over 30 years.

I've just finished a meal in a German hotel with my German, Russian, French, Slovakian and Dutch colleagues and the Brexit was high on the topics of discussion and they would all like us to stay, think we'd be stupid to leave but they're certainly not worried about what they will lose if we go, they'll laugh their arses off at our idiotic decision if we do decide to leave and then get on with their lives while we fight to avoid sliding further into the deep abyss that our ludicrous sense of national pride left when it impacted on day to day reality.

Sure if we leave the EU they would like to keep selling to us but that doesn't necessarily give us the whip hand, it's not like we're all going to suddenly rush out and buy British cars, phones, TVs etc since we no longer make any of them. It will just mean Citroen, Fiat, Renault, Peugeot, VW, Grundig, Bosch, Nokia etc will have to compete on a more level playing field with the likes of Toyota, Nissan, Samsung, LG etc but realistically it will probably mean that it just ends up costing us more for whatever we do end up buying thus driving us further down the GDP per capita PPP table as our cost of living rises yet again.

1, China in 2014 GDP per capita $7600 UK $46000. What point are you making about the UK that you are also prepared to make about China?

2, It must be in their interests for us to stay then and I hope they are still laughing if/when they realise they are going to have to foot the bill we used to pay.

3, I don't detect any lack of national pride with the Dutch, German, or French people I speak to. It bothers me a little that people condemn a perfectly reasonable stance about what is best for the UK in the future with a very poor and inappropriate attack on petty nationalism, it makes me think they don't really understand the debate.

We build more cars than we drive in the UK, we make chips for the mobile phones we don't have the massive youth unemployment prevalent across the EU and we are not going to have to deal with 1.5 million refugees from Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq next year like Germany. So while I accept we are not perfect it isn't like other countries staying in the EU don't have enormous difficulties.

My father is voting leave but he is eighty this year and has never forgiven the Germans for trying to kill him as a boy and never voted to join in the first place.

My twin brother is voting leave because he doesn't see a future in the EU for the UK he thinks its better to leave now rather than wait and fail when the EU does.

I run the leave arguments on here because I find the stay arguments have more support. I genuinely can't make my mind up one way or the other, its not like me at all.

 

[Don't Kill Bill]

In isolation yes, but theres bigger things at play here. European disunity and discontent is high. Plenty of countries, particularly eastern bloc ones, are moving if not towards the exit, then towards opposition. What sort of message does it send out if the UK votes to leave and gets a far better deal than if it stayed in? There'd be referendums in half of Europe within the month.

It wouldn't so much be cutting its nose of to spit its face, it would be cutting its nose of to prevent its eyes and half its ear falling off.

Have the Leave campaign actually set out a plan for how they're going to 'get a better deal out of the EU' yet, btw? I've had a look on both campaigns websites and can find nothing. It seems like they have no clue how anything they say is going to happen is going to happen and hope to just be able to deflect by shouting 'SCAREMONGERING' until the referendum.

They can't because they do not know, it is impossible for them to know and demanding they state a plan is a dead end.

Then again I don't see a workable long term plan to deal with Greek financial default, vulnerable EU banks and huge immigration from the EU cheerleaders either.

Lets just admit that there will be a trade deal post Brexit it will probably be on about the same terms give or take and the EU will manage to go on with the Euro as long as the German public agree and vote Merkel.

 

[NinjaFletch]

They can't because they do not know, it is impossible for them to know and demanding they state a plan is a dead end.

Then again I don't see a workable long term plan to deal with Greek financial default, vulnerable EU banks and huge immigration from the EU cheerleaders either.

Lets just admit that there will be a trade deal post Brexit it will probably be on about the same terms give or take and the EU will manage to go on with the Euro as long as the German public agree and vote Merkel.

Well I agree, but you can't just state 'we're going to get the bestest deal ever and the UK is going to be a land of milk and honey' without having any idea of how thats going to happen. A central pillar to the argument is that we're better off out of the EU, if you're going to make that claim then you have to be able to provide some sort of realistic way in which you envisage that happening.

Really, I think you're right its a leap into the unknown and no one can state with certainty whats going to happen. But if the leave campaign are going to make as big an issue out of this as they are then they have to be able to better defend their vision.

 

[Don't Kill Bill]

If you want me to suggest a strategy to them then I would say go and talk to NAFTA about joining them instead of the EU at which point the EU folds and starts talking free trade without all the other bullshit demands but I'm not an international trade negotiator.

If the EU believes that free trade creates jobs then having a free trade deal with the UK post a leave vote is inevitable. If it doesn't believe that free trade creates jobs then it shouldn't exist.

To me the rest of the talk is propaganda from both sides.

 

[Mozza]

Free trade deals don't need negotiations, you just trade. Joining NAFTA would see them dictating the terms of trade just as much as the EU would

 

[sun_tzu]

Free trade deals don't need negotiations, you just trade.

So how exactly do we "just trade" - with countries that have trade restrictions without negotiating a free trade agreement?

 

[Mozza]

So how exactly do we "just trade" - with countries that have trade restrictions without negotiating a free trade agreement?

Thats the point I'm trying to make. The brexitters think it'll be a doddle to negotiate a deal, free trade for the UK with NAFTA and China and the EU!

Reality is these big power blocks will take from us what they want and we'll have to accept what they offer

 

[sun_tzu]

Thats the point I'm trying to make. The brexitters think it'll be a doddle to negotiate a deal, free trade for the UK with NAFTA and China and the EU!

Reality is these big power blocks will take from us what they want and we'll have to accept what they offer

yes... the eu has been negotiating a free trade deal with china for 6 years now and is making good progress - but those who think we could negotiate a deal significantly quicker or on better (even equal) terms are delusional

 

[Nick 0208 Ldn]

Alliance of feminists and pro-Brexit MPs back Labour’s Paula Sherriff in attempting to amend George Osborne’s finance bill

 

[Red Defence]

Conservative Anne-Marie Trevelyan, who is campaigning for Britain to leave the EU after the referendum on 23 June, said: “The people we elect should be responsible for setting the taxes in this country – not unelected EU judges and bureaucrats. It is a fundamental principle of democracy that there should be no taxation without representation, which is what we now have.”

This is another aggravating factor of being in the EU.

It's completely incomprehensible that bureaucrats in Europe should deem sanitary products for women "luxury items" when they are without doubt a necessity. Are the rest of women in Europe biologically different to women in the UK? Or do men in the rest of Europe have no understanding of the anatomical workings of the female body? Something very odd about this decision of theirs and it needs changing asap. A perfect example of why the EU should just stick to basic trading and leave the countries to govern themselves.

 

[Ubik]

 

[sun_tzu]

This is another aggravating factor of being in the EU.

It's completely incomprehensible that bureaucrats in Europe should deem sanitary products for women "luxury items" when they are without doubt a necessity. Are the rest of women in Europe biologically different to women in the UK? Or do men in the rest of Europe have no understanding of the anatomical workings of the female body? Something very odd about this decision of theirs and it needs changing asap. A perfect example of why the EU should just stick to basic trading and leave the countries to govern themselves.

up to 2000 we charged 17.5% VAT on these products... a decision that was nothing to do with the EU
France charges 22.5% - Ireland charges 0% - both in the EU... but lets not have actual facts get in the way of people saying its all Europes fault

 

[Silva]

It just can't happen. Reducing the population will feck a lot of the economy beyond higher taxes or drastic cuts (fewer people to buy things). Especially when the demographics get screwed up by ageing.

 

[Red Defence]

up to 2000 we charged 17.5% VAT on these products... a decision that was nothing to do with the EU
France charges 22.5% - Ireland charges 0% - both in the EU... but lets not have actual facts get in the way of people saying its all Europes fault

No, let's not have actual facts get in the way. Let's deal with actual facts.

The Chancellor said he could not scrap the tax altogether because of "EU law" - but said he would lobby the EU to change their approach.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-tax-will-fund-womens-charities-a6748241.html

However, the ability to remove VAT is problematic since currently the lowest permissible rate across the EU for sanitary products is 5%.

EU Legal Basis: Directive 2006/112/EC
The essential legal instrument regulating VAT application across the EU includes a minimum standard rate of 15% (at Point 29). The Directive contains three provisions relevant to the imposition of VAT on sanitary products. Article 98 states that Member States may apply a discretionary reduced rate to goods and services including sanitary products within Annex III. Article 99 provides the reduced rates may not be less than 5%. The UK’s zero-rated items status is preserved by Article 110. Sanitary products were charged at the standard rate in the UK until the 2000 Budget at which point the VAT rate on sanitary products was reduced to 5%.


http://eulawanalysis.blogspot.co.uk/2015/10/the-tampon-tax-uk-and-eu-standstill.html

“Our chancellor is unable to take this decision that will benefit women because VAT is controlled by the EU.

The EU is responsible for many errors of judgement and failure to act. This is just another one of those failures.

 

[Nick 0208 Ldn]

He neglects to say that wages would rise, which is a rather important detail i'd have thought. The status quo is a reduced income for the poor of this country and the exploitation of eastern Europeans, but such is the hypocrisy of the Remain campaign.

It just can't happen. Reducing the population will feck a lot of the economy beyond higher taxes or drastic cuts (fewer people to buy thing). Especially when the demographics get screwed up by ageing.

But surely the rate of inward migration must be sustainable? The pressures on housing, public services and infrastructure are not imaginary. The demographic crisis will only be made worse if all we can think to do is import short term solutions.

up to 2000 we charged 17.5% VAT on these products... a decision that was nothing to do with the EU
France charges 22.5% - Ireland charges 0% - both in the EU... but lets not have actual facts get in the way of people saying its all Europes fault

The UK would impose no tax at all if it could, but is prevented from doing so. Similarly, we could have a child's clothing tax forced upon us.

 

[Silva]

But surely the rate of inward migration must be sustainable? The pressures on housing, public services and infrastructure are not imaginary. The demographic crisis will only be made worse if all we can think to do is import short term solutions.

If our governments don't pulled their finger out of their arse and came up with a good housing solution (I still think the Dutch model is good) then we'll wind up without enough workers to foot the bill and too many OAPs who need supporting. The lack of planning (and not just in this country) is a real shit-show. Germany and Japan already fecked up on this front, Germany let in too many people in one giant influx, and Japan's being too racists to let people in. It'd be nice if the people we elected to run the country were capable of thinking beyond re-elections and personal goals, but it is what it is, we're going to wind up dealing with it when shit hits the fan. If they can sort out housing, surely everything else falls into place, a strong working population should be able to afford the rise in social services. But I suspect nothing of note will happen and I'll have to retire at the ripe old age of 97.

 

[Ubik]

He neglects to say that wages would rise, which is a rather important detail i'd have thought. The status quo is a reduced income for the poor of this country and the exploitation of eastern Europeans, but such is the hypocrisy of the Remain campaign.

Are there actual figures on how much?

And Silva was bang on about the ageing population too, if we want pensions we need a young population working and paying taxes. It's something that scares Germany and one reason they've been so open in the recent crisis.

 

[Don't Kill Bill]

Long term we don't need people we need robots.

I can't square the argument we need a rising population with the forecasts on the impact of automation and CO2 targets.

 

[Jippy]

If our governments don't pulled their finger out of their arse and came up with a good housing solution (I still think the Dutch model is good) then we'll wind up without enough workers to foot the bill and too many OAPs who need supporting. The lack of planning (and not just in this country) is a real shit-show. Germany and Japan already fecked up on this front, Germany let in too many people in one giant influx, and Japan's being too racists to let people in. It'd be nice if the people we elected to run the country were capable of thinking beyond re-elections and personal goals, but it is what it is, we're going to wind up dealing with it when shit hits the fan. If they can sort out housing, surely everything else falls into place, a strong working population should be able to afford the rise in social services. But I suspect nothing of note will happen and I'll have to retire at the ripe old age of 97.

It's a grim thought that we apparently need X hundred thousand new houses a year. The UK will end up like that planet on Star Wars that is one giant city.
People moan, but what would be the reaction if we just tarmaced over the lake district and stuck a million homes on it?
We definitely need to sort out the disused social housing for starters.

 

[Silva]

It's a grim thought that we apparently need X hundred thousand new houses a year. The UK will end up like that planet on Star Wars that is one giant city.
People moan, but what would be the reaction if we just tarmaced over the lake district and stuck a million homes on it?
We definitely need to sort out the disused social housing for starters.

It's a shame brutalist buildings are so hideous.

 

[sun_tzu]

The UK would impose no tax at all if it could, but is prevented from doing so

Move along nothing to see

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-35834142

 

[Red Defence]

http://news.sky.com/story/1661968/tampon-tax-set-to-be-scrapped-after-eu-deal

Finally. Would never have taken so long if our country wasn't being micromanaged by unelected people in the EU.

 

[rcoobc]

Can't argue with that

 

[DOTA]

http://news.sky.com/story/1661968/tampon-tax-set-to-be-scrapped-after-eu-deal

Finally. Would never have taken so long if our country wasn't being micromanaged by unelected people in the EU.

Indeed.

Very silly thing. An open goal for the Out campaign.

 

[rcoobc]

Indeed.

Very silly thing. An open goal for the Out campaign.

Well, they have caved in.