EU Referendum | UK residents vote today.

[sun_tzu]

The age demographics very much favour India and Brazil, but they feck one of your other choices, Japan. I'm surprised you included that one.

They have been dealing with that demographic for a long time... Its creating up on most western economies and is arguably an even bigger issue for China due to one child policy
I believe Japan actually spends less gdp % than uk at the moment on health + pensions combined so relatively speaking I'd call it at least as much an issue for the UK

On the flip side Japan is in a good geographical location for the predicted boom economies of the next decade so yeah I think they are starting from a position of being a much bigger economy and will probably grow more than us over the next decade

 

[711]

Interesting, I'd thought Japan didn't have much room for maneuver with age and debt, but I'm no expert. I nearly included China's demographics, but their movement from the country to manufacturing is so recent there could yet be a large untapped potential workforce still available for all I know, so I chose to hold back on that one.

 

[Jippy]

Japan has awful demographics and chronic debt levels. Not sure Abenomics is working and they keep getting whacked by yen strengthening.
Odd market to invest in. Tends to be either the best or worst major market each year and the least correlated to the others.

 

[Red Defence]

If you are concerned or affected by that short term pain then vote remain. I don't believe that we will remain in the economic doldrums for too long. Do you?

Short term pain.....long term gain. What's not to like about a Brexit.

 

[Mozza]

Short term pain.....long term gain. What's not to like about a Brexit.

Assuming there is a long term gain

 

[Red Defence]

Well that's up to us isn't it. No reason why there shouldn't be.

 

[Jippy]

Well that's up to us isn't it. No reason why there shouldn't be.

Negotiating the terms of the 'divorce' is largely beyond our control.

 

[Nick 0208 Ldn]

What kind of future do you proponents of the EU actually envisage for the United Kingdom? The power behind the EU lies with the increasingly dominant Eurozone bloc, our position can only become more marginalised as time passes. We shall be paying more but influencing less of value to us.

Have you simply given up on a better vision, or are you so wedded to the Brussels project that you'd sell the country down the river anyway irrespective of the consequences?

The only certainty is that there would be fek loads of uncertainty
I see no correlation to that bringing about greater prosperity... Quite the opposite infact

Oh i don't know, there are other certainties:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...ber-to-be-3-billion-higher-than-expected.html

So in addition to the increases in VAT which i alluded to earlier, membership of the EU is deprives our public services of billion of pounds at a very critical time. And some on the continent attempt to discourage investment in this country, we can even use a portion of the money we used to send to Brussels for subsidies and other inducements.

 

[DrunkenBeaver]

The EU, as a single market is worth $16tn a year. Whilst we wouldn't be completely excluded from that if we left (such as Norway) we would be completely unable to affect its rules and influence them to our favour. At the moment we're one of the big 3 in Europe who between us can pretty much fix the field how we want it. I genuinely don't see the logic in leaving that behind.

 

[rcoobc]

What kind of future do you proponents of the EU actually envisage for the United Kingdom? The power behind the EU lies with the increasingly dominant Eurozone bloc, our position can only become more marginalised as time passes. We shall be paying more but influencing less of value to us.

Have you simply given up on a better vision, or are you so wedded to the Brussels project that you'd sell the country down the river anyway irrespective of the consequences?

As a grown man, I know that I can't get my way all of the time. Being in the EU is much the same. We are subject to EU laws on human rights, fisheries, agriculture, on how many hours we work a week, on business, on green energy, on advertising... on nearly everything. It would be ridiculous to expect to be the biggest benefactor of every single policy, and some we might flat out disagree with. But you know what's brilliant? All the other countries have to abide by them as well. If Viktor Orban starts pushing too far with his policies in Hungry, maybe the EU will have a framework on how to deal with him. If Portugal tries to over fish their seas to help push the economic growth, the EU can stop them too. If Italy decides to go back to the age of cheap coal powered stations to save money at the expense of public health, the EU can sort them out too.

On the surface it looks like everyone loses from the EU; no one is entirely happy. Game theory might suggest we should leave the EU (because it's better for us), and try to get our own way (because it's better for us), except of course it's not.

So to answer your questions:

What kind of future do you proponents of the EU actually envisage for the United Kingdom?

I don't understand the question, but largely we will be continuing as we are now.

The power behind the EU lies with the increasingly dominant Eurozone bloc, our position can only become more marginalised as time passes.

If you say so. By 2050 Britain maybe the EU's largest country, and the EU's largest economy, and David Cameron wants a two speed Europe anyway (1) (2) (3) (4). Cameron's vision for Britain in Europe is largely what is has already been since we didn't join the Euro. Not quite in the core, but with vetos on what is important and as part of the negotiations. And basically, that vision would be shared by most Labour leaders and most Lib Dems.

Have you simply given up on a better vision, or are you so wedded to the Brussels project that you'd sell the country down the river anyway irrespective of the consequences?

This doesn't merit a response. Certainly not an adult one without name-calling and petty insults. You've basically given up here with any sort of debate, and nailed your flag firmly to a mast.

 

[Don't Kill Bill]

Negotiating the terms of the 'divorce' is largely beyond our control.

There isn't a judge in this divorce, no absolute impartial power. Negotiating and agreeing the terms is all there is or there are no terms.

 

[Don't Kill Bill]

As a grown man, I know that I can't get my way all of the time. Being in the EU is much the same. We are subject to EU laws on human rights, fisheries, agriculture, on how many hours we work a week, on business, on green energy, on advertising... on nearly everything. It would be ridiculous to expect to be the biggest benefactor of every single policy, and some we might flat out disagree with. But you know what's brilliant? All the other countries have to abide by them as well. If Viktor Orban starts pushing too far with his policies in Hungry, maybe the EU will have a framework on how to deal with him. If Portugal tries to over fish their seas to help push the economic growth, the EU can stop them too. If Italy decides to go back to the age of cheap coal powered stations to save money at the expense of public health, the EU can sort them out too.

On the surface it looks like everyone loses from the EU; no one is entirely happy. Game theory might suggest we should leave the EU (because it's better for us), and try to get our own way (because it's better for us), except of course it's not.

So to answer your questions:

I don't understand the question, but largely we will be continuing as we are now.

If you say so. By 2050 Britain maybe the EU's largest country, and the EU's largest economy, and David Cameron wants a two speed Europe anyway (1) (2) (3) (4). Cameron's vision for Britain in Europe is largely what is has already been since we didn't join the Euro. Not quite in the core, but with vetos on what is important and as part of the negotiations. And basically, that vision would be shared by most Labour leaders and most Lib Dems.

This doesn't merit a response. Certainly not an adult one without name-calling and petty insults. You've basically given up here with any sort of debate, and nailed your flag firmly to a mast.

How many successes are you counting from the list in bold, how many are you thinking well done EU you sure sorted those problems out?

At some point we are going to have to decide for the purpose of the debate whether the UK is screwed because its insignificant or that it carries a lot of weight and won't be treated like Iceland. No offence intended to people from Iceland.

As a grown man I know there is a vast difference between trying to get my own way all the time on matters which effect others and having other people tell me how to spend my time when it has nothing to do with anyone else. If the EU had been able to understand that point we might not be here.

 

[Jippy]

There isn't a judge in this divorce, no absolute impartial power. Negotiating and agreeing the terms is all there is or there are no terms.

Do you see it being a quick and favourable process?

 

[Don't Kill Bill]

Do you see it being a quick and favourable process?

No pro EU exponent is going to say yes to that question before the vote because it is not in their interest. After a leave vote that self interest turns completely around because at that point it is in everyone's interest to settle.

 

[Don't Kill Bill]

Jippy,

Is the EU the only game in town as a trading block for the UK to talk to?

 

[Jippy]

Jippy,

Is the EU the only game in town as a trading block for the UK to talk to?

No, but it is just over 50pc of our trade. On some levels I am agnostic on the vote, but the fact that we don't know the terms of exit does concern me.
@sun_tzu posted an interesting article from a former Norwegian foreign minister. The Swiss/Norwegian model is not the obvious panacea we think.
Ridiculous to think that something like toastergate/gnarly veggies could sway this.

 

[rcoobc]

How many successes are you counting from the list in bold, how many are you thinking well done EU you sure sorted those problems out?

At some point we are going to have to decide for the purpose of the debate whether the UK is screwed because its insignificant or that it carries a lot of weight and won't be treated like Iceland. No offence intended to people from Iceland.

As a grown man I know there is a vast difference between trying to get my own way all the time on matters which effect others and having other people tell me how to spend my time when it has nothing to do with anyone else. If the EU had been able to understand that point we might not be here.

I'd go with human rights, business and hours we work a week being successes at the very least

 

[Classical Mechanic]

No, but it is just over 50pc of our trade. On some levels I am agnostic on the vote, but the fact that we don't know the terms of exit does concern me.
@sun_tzu posted an interesting article from a former Norwegian foreign minister. The Swiss/Norwegian model is not the obvious panacea we think.
Ridiculous to think that something like toastergate/gnarly veggies could sway this.

And in what way are we as an economic power analogous to Switzerland and Norway?

 

[sun_tzu]

And in what way are we as an economic power analogous to Switzerland and Norway?

True... They would expect us to pay a lot more for access to the market

 

[Classical Mechanic]

True... They would expect us to pay a lot more for access to the market

We will have far more sway in negotiations than Switzerland or Norway.

 

[711]

Far less sway in negotiation. Our need to support 50% of exporters would mean negotiating from absolute desperation to avoid complete collapse, whereas Norway would still be an enormously wealthy country with or without the EU. The counter-argument is that Europeans want to continue exporting to us, but the UK is just one market out of many to them, they risk a dip in profits, but not total devastation of entire sectors of their economy.

There are issues that might lead me to vote Out, but I need to see some realism in the Out campaign first, the current state of denial of every potential downside just isn't working.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

Far less sway in negotiation. Our need to support 50% of exporters would mean negotiating from absolute desperation to avoid complete collapse, whereas Norway would still be an enormously wealthy country with or without the EU. The counter-argument is that Europeans want to continue exporting to us, but the UK is just one market out of many to them, they risk a dip in profits, but not total devastation of entire sectors of their economy.

There are issues that might lead me to vote Out, but I need to see some realism in the Out campaign first, the current state of denial of every potential downside just isn't working.

Norway's economic position outwith of the EU isn't that relevant in negotiations. All that matters is what they bring to the table , which is an economy 1/6 of the size of the UK. I don't know what sector you work in but in the sector that I do, one of the largest in the UK, major European companies are key players within it.

That said I am leaning towards remain at the moment.

 

[711]

I don't know if I'm putting it well CM, I understand that European businesses would suffer at a drop of trade with the UK, but British ones would suffer a great deal more, and that would give the EU the upper hand in any negotiation. There could be no brinkmanship from us, and they would dictate the terms.

 

[sun_tzu]

We will have far more sway in negotiations than Switzerland or Norway.

I'm not that sure we will remember when the trans Atlantic and Chinese free trade deals kick in our economy / market will be proportionally insignificant... Plus I don't know if you know anybody who has ever been through even a very amicable divorse but the financial settlement is typically the most difficult part... And in a messy divorse it gets downright evil

 

[Classical Mechanic]

I don't know if I'm putting it well CM, I understand that European businesses would suffer at a drop of trade with the UK, but British ones would suffer a great deal more, and that would give the EU the upper hand in any negotiation. There could be no brinkmanship from us, and they would dictate the terms.

I'm not that sure we will remember when the trans Atlantic and Chinese free trade deals kick in our economy / market will be proportionally insignificant... Plus I don't know if you know anybody who has ever been through even a very amicable divorse but the financial settlement is typically the most difficult part... And in a messy divorse it gets downright evil

Perhaps I am being naive in believing that negotiations should be ran along hard headed business terms.

If the EU chose to treat the UK with spite because of a democratic mandate to leave then it only highlights the hideous nature of the organisation.

 

[sun_tzu]

Perhaps I am being naive in believing that negotiations should be ran along hard headed business terms.

If the EU chose to treat the UK with spite because of a democratic mandate to leave then it only highlights the hideous nature of the organisation.

Sadly any agreement would also have to be ratified by individual governments and I think that is where your problem lies
Would a French government with elections on the horizon want to ratify a deal which was acceptable to the UK? - I have my doubts as im sure there would be political pressures making that difficult... probably the same though to a lesser extent in Germany
And the though that any of the eastern European governments are going to allow us access to the market without free movement of people in return is a total non starter... And as it is politicians with election cycles and voter support to worry about I see negations being fractious, bitter and very difficult for the UK - especially as I say with the American and Chinese deals on the cards for the EU - our economy would be about a 10th the size of that deal so I certainly don't feel we are negotiating from a position of strength... essentially the free trade zone for EU countries will have a combined GDP of about $42bn and we would be about $3bn (though if the £ takes a tanking arguably less in $ terms).
To put it bluntly the tail does not wag the dog

 

[711]

Perhaps I am being naive in believing that negotiations should be ran along hard headed business terms.

If the EU chose to treat the UK with spite because of a democratic mandate to leave then it only highlights the hideous nature of the organisation.

If your position is that suffering the economic consequences of withdrawal would be worth it, then that's honest and worth considering; my problem is that the complete denial of any issue by the Out campaign gives me no confidence in them at all.

 

[Penna]

I campaigned on doorsteps back in the 1970s as a Common Market supporter, trying to get people to vote "yes". Now after 40 years, we may end up on our own again, which to me is a massive step backwards in every way.

Today in Tescos something depressed me even more. I was buying bananas and looking for ones from the Windward Islands. I much prefer to support their growers, as they did lose out when we could no longer favour their (Commonwealth) imports. Anyway, all I could find was fruit from Colombia and Ghana.

I said to the fruit section lad "Do you have any bananas from the Windward Islands? You sometimes stock them, but these are all from Colombia and Ghana".
"No", he said, "they're mostly from Cumberland".
"Colombia, you mean" I said.
"Yes, Cumberland" he said.

I then said that it would be very difficult to achieve the tropical temperatures which favour banana production in Cumberland. I also mentioned that it's a shame we don't now favour the better (imo) fruit which comes from the Windward Islands, as people would probably pay more for quality. He then said that when we come out of Europe, we'll be great again as a country and can buy from anyone we want. His colleague came up and she agreed with him.

I didn't want to get into a fratch with shop workers, so I just said "we still won't be buying bananas from Cumberland" and left them to it.

 

[rcoobc]

I campaigned on doorsteps back in the 1970s as a Common Market supporter, trying to get people to vote "yes". Now after 40 years, we may end up on our own again, which to me is a massive step backwards in every way.

Today in Tescos something depressed me even more. I was buying bananas and looking for ones from the Windward Islands. I much prefer to support their growers, as they did lose out when we could no longer favour their (Commonwealth) imports. Anyway, all I could find was fruit from Colombia and Ghana.

I said to the fruit section lad "Do you have any bananas from the Windward Islands? You sometimes stock them, but these are all from Colombia and Ghana".
"No", he said, "they're mostly from Cumberland".
"Colombia, you mean" I said.
"Yes, Cumberland" he said.

I then said that it would be very difficult to achieve the tropical temperatures which favour banana production in Cumberland. I also mentioned that it's a shame we don't now favour the better (imo) fruit which comes from the Windward Islands, as people would probably pay more for quality. He then said that when we come out of Europe, we'll be great again as a country and can buy from anyone we want. His colleague came up and she agreed with him.

I didn't want to get into a fratch with shop workers, so I just said "we still won't be buying bananas from Cumberland" and left them to it.

Are Windward Island bananas a different species? As they are all clones of each other anyway, I'm not sure it matters to me to much what country they are from.

 

[rcoobc]

This EU referendum could be the best thing David Cameron has done. Even the telegraph has backtracked on its euphobic ways.

 

[Penna]

Are Windward Island bananas a different species? As they are all clones of each other anyway, I'm not sure it matters to me to much what country they are from.

Smaller, sweeter, more curved.

 

[Will Absolute]

Sadly any agreement would also have to be ratified by individual governments and I think that is where your problem lies
Would a French government with elections on the horizon want to ratify a deal which was acceptable to the UK? - I have my doubts as im sure there would be political pressures making that difficult... probably the same though to a lesser extent in Germany
And the though that any of the eastern European governments are going to allow us access to the market without free movement of people in return is a total non starter... And as it is politicians with election cycles and voter support to worry about I see negations being fractious, bitter and very difficult for the UK - especially as I say with the American and Chinese deals on the cards for the EU - our economy would be about a 10th the size of that deal so I certainly don't feel we are negotiating from a position of strength... essentially the free trade zone for EU countries will have a combined GDP of about $42bn and we would be about $3bn (though if the £ takes a tanking arguably less in $ terms).
To put it bluntly the tail does not wag the dog

I don't agree with any of that. The UK is a huge trading partner for many European countries, and when the smoke clears and passions cool, self-interest will dictate the smooth continuation of those relationships.

In 2013, the latest year for which I could find figures, Britain imported a whopping $88B worth of goods from Germany and exported $46B. About 3% of German GDP is exported to Britain. Without agonizing over the exact figures, that's probably about a million German jobs hanging on that trade. There's no way Mrs Merkel, or any German politician, will cut off her nose to spite her face and provoke a trade war with Britain. Euro pols have enough problems without gratuitously damaging their own economies in a futile attempt to 'punish' the British people for exercising their sovereignty.

If Britain votes Leave, there will be no going back. Europe will have to come to terms with a new reality. Commonsense will demand the change be as non-disruptive as possible. The last thing Europe needs is another big helping of trouble on its already overflowing plate.

 

[rcoobc]

I don't agree with any of that. The UK is a huge trading partner for many European countries, and when the smoke clears and passions cool, self-interest will dictate the smooth continuation of those relationships.

In 2013, the latest year for which I could find figures, Britain imported a whopping $88B worth of goods from Germany and exported $46B. About 3% of German GDP is exported to Britain. Without agonizing over the exact figures, that's probably about a million German jobs hanging on that trade. There's no way Mrs Merkel, or any German politician, will cut off her nose to spite her face and provoke a trade war with Britain. Euro pols have enough problems without gratuitously damaging their own economies in a futile attempt to 'punish' the British people for exercising their sovereignty.

If Britain votes Leave, there will be no going back. Europe will have to come to terms with a new reality. Commonsense will demand the change be as non-disruptive as possible. The last thing Europe needs is another big helping of trouble on its already overflowing plate.

Whatever way you swing it, the EU is much more important to the UK than the UK is to the EU. And they know it. Assuming that "it's all going to be okay" is ridiculous. The UK needs to negotiate terms with every single damned EU member, and once we hand the divorce papers in, we have 2 years to do it in. Some EU countries have said they expect to make it difficult for the UK to leave, just as some where planning to make it difficult for Greece to leave too.

In the years it takes for Britain to negotiate terms with every single EU member, and other country we automatically have deals with as part of the EU, David Cameron may resign, the Scots may demand a second independence referendum, Britain may have another General Election, and so on. That's not to mention every other country having elections and so on.

And this all assumes we don't have to invoke Article 50 straight away. If David Cameron does that as he says he will, we are truly screwed.

 

[Will Absolute]

Whatever way you swing it, the EU is much more important to the UK than the UK is to the EU. And they know it. Assuming that "it's all going to be okay" is ridiculous. The UK needs to negotiate terms with every single damned EU member, and once we hand the divorce papers in, we have 2 years to do it in. Some EU countries have said they expect to make it difficult for the UK to leave, just as some where planning to make it difficult for Greece to leave too.

In the years it takes for Britain to negotiate terms with every single EU member, and other country we automatically have deals with as part of the EU, David Cameron may resign, the Scots may demand a second independence referendum, Britain may have another General Election, and so on. That's not to mention every other country having elections and so on.

And this all assumes we don't have to invoke Article 50 straight away. If David Cameron does that as he says he will, we are truly screwed.

Time will tell; but if Britain does vote Leave, my prediction is nothing much will change, and in 5 years, everyone will be wondering what all the fuss was about. Much like joining the Euro, which the same establishment types were claiming was a train Britain couldn't afford to miss, and turned out ...... not to be.

 

[Nick 0208 Ldn]

As a grown man, I know that I can't get my way all of the time. Being in the EU is much the same. We are subject to EU laws on human rights, fisheries, agriculture, on how many hours we work a week, on business, on green energy, on advertising... on nearly everything. It would be ridiculous to expect to be the biggest benefactor of every single policy, and some we might flat out disagree with. But you know what's brilliant? All the other countries have to abide by them as well. If Viktor Orban starts pushing too far with his policies in Hungry, maybe the EU will have a framework on how to deal with him. If Portugal tries to over fish their seas to help push the economic growth, the EU can stop them too. If Italy decides to go back to the age of cheap coal powered stations to save money at the expense of public health, the EU can sort them out too.

Is that how you would describe the EU's conduct toward Greece? Or its handling of the migrant the migrant crisis? Not to mention such external policy actions as Libya and Ukraine.

I don't understand the question, but largely we will be continuing as we are now.

I would like for one of you Remainers to describe a truly positive vision for Britain's continued membership of the EU. What we are hearing from the Government falls rather short of that description.

This doesn't merit a response. Certainly not an adult one without name-calling and petty insults. You've basically given up here with any sort of debate, and nailed your flag firmly to a mast.

Cards on the table here rcoobe, both you and I knew how we were gong to vote in this referendum some while ago. If memory serves, you have been a fairly open advocate of the European Union during previous discussions here in the CE.

Have i given up on the EU and attempts to reform it from within? Yes. Have i given up on either the United Kingdom or Europe? No. Indeed it is my regard for the latter two which prompts me to vote for Brexit.

The EU has grown beyond its duty to the people, we are merely...encumbrances. Such benefits as a common cause on human rights and climate change, can be realised without the encroaching political structure we have at present. If we as countries of Europe are voluntarily pooling our talent for the betterment of us all, then that really ought to be the point of the union don't you think? Instead, we've got Brussels trying to impose VAT rates on children's clothing contrary to the wishes of nation states.

 

[rcoobc]

Is that how you would describe the EU's conduct toward Greece? Or its handling of the migrant the migrant crisis? Not to mention such external policy actions as Libya and Ukraine.

With the migrant crisis, the EU is caught between it's liberal 21st century sympathy and a pragmatic hardliner position that perhaps would be better for the EU countries. Migrants being relocated due to external and internal wars is a story that has been replicated again and again throughout history. No one has ever had an answer for it. I don't know what to do, except send peacekeepers to those countries.

Greece... it's not an easy one either. I suspect they should have been allowed to move off of the Euro, even temporarily! The EU is a bureaucratic monster, and sometimes the obvious answer is much harder for it than more bureaucratic nonsense. Ukraine, I can't imagine it was too much at fault. Libya was a international effort.

I would like for one of you Remainers to describe a truly positive vision for Britain's continued membership of the EU. What we are hearing from the Government falls rather short of that description.

A truly positive vision might be something like what Merkel wanted, reform from the inside. But it's a completley different discussion from the one we currently are having... What I want would be considered a pipe dream, akin to thinking about turning the Premier League into an NFL style competition.

Cards on the table here rcoobc, both you and I knew how we were gong to vote in this referendum some while ago. If memory serves, you have been a fairly open advocate of the European Union during previous discussions here in the CE.

Have i given up on the EU and attempts to reform it from within? Yes. Have i given up on either the United Kingdom or Europe? No. Indeed it is my regard for the latter two which prompts me to vote for Brexit.

The EU has grown beyond its duty to the people, we are merely...encumbrances. Such benefits as a common cause on human rights and climate change, can be realised without the encroaching political structure we have at present. If we as countries of Europe are voluntarily pooling our talent for the betterment of us all, then that really ought to be the point of the union don't you think? Instead, we've got Brussels trying to impose VAT rates on children's clothing contrary to the wishes of nation states.

I actually came into the EU debate much closer to 50/50 than I might have thought. One of my best mates is a massive Torie and a Euroskeptic, so we've had some great debates about it all. His overwhelming perspective is that we can't as a country continue to accept millions of people from the EU and continue to build all over the beautiful landscape of what Britain was.

If Boris can sort out his rabble and offer an alternative to what he wants Britain to be, then maybe I might yet turn. An agreement with countries like Australia, New Zealand and Canada for open borders would be great. Maybe Boris will plant his flag and say we will try to leave the EU but join the EFTA (thereby sorting out a lot of the problems with terms of the Brexit?).. maybe it is possible...

But I doubt any of them will go into that much detail into what they want. It's a pipe dream too

 

[Nick 0208 Ldn]

There are issues that might lead me to vote Out, but I need to see some realism in the Out campaign first, the current state of denial of every potential downside just isn't working.

Our need to support 50% of exporters would mean negotiating from absolute desperation to avoid complete collapse

David, old chap, is that you?

Much of the debate i have seen acknowledges that there is the potential for some level of disruption, just not on the scale of an all out trade war and Britons currently living in France being ordered to leave. Come polling day, the smoke and chaff are likely to be so think that it shall be an achievement to even see the ballot paper.

 

[rcoobc]

David, old chap, is that you?

Much of the debate i have seen acknowledges that there is the potential for some level of disruption, just not on the scale of an all out trade war and Britons currently living in France being ordered to leave.

What happens in the situation where we don't negotiate terms within the 2 year time frame? We get kicked out of the EU... and so have no terms of trade with the EU or anyone else. France and Ireland have to block entry, we have no visa's, no rights for our nationals to live in EU countries and no rights for their nationals to live in ours.

It's unlikely, but that sounds like complete collapse to me.

 

[sun_tzu]

What happens in the situation where we don't negotiate terms within the 2 year time frame? We get kicked out of the EU... and so have no terms of trade, France has to block entry, no visa's, no rights to live in EU countries and they in ours.

It's unlikely, but that sounds like complete collapse.

who blinks first - the whole of the eu or the UK... I'm pretty certain it would be us

 

[Jippy]

And in what way are we as an economic power analogous to Switzerland and Norway?

I'm not comparing economic clout, more that people talk about their EEA status. Do you not think that if we get better terms than the Swiss or Norwegians, then they will want to renegotiate?
Generous terms could tempt others to leave too. Politicians are not the most rationale, we can't rely on them making sound decisions for business.
I just think it's impossible to vote out when you don't know the terms of exit. Not that this in itself is the greatest reason to stay in.