Erik ten Hag - Manchester United manager

bringbackbebe

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Did Arteta and Klopp get to spend 400 million in their first 2 campaigns?
This was our squad end Rangnick with players likely to be there next season marked in bold.

GK: De Gea, Henderson
FB: Dalot, AWB, Shaw, Telles
CB: Bailly, Maguire, Varane, Jones, Lindelof
Mid: Pogba, Matic, McTominay, Mata, Fred, DVB
FW: Rashford, Sancho, Lingard, Elanga (Greenwood was banned)
ST: Martial, Ronaldo, Cavani

Out of 400m we spent, you can argue we overpaid 100m-150m on these players. Possibly, but starting out from this squad, I can see why we panicked.

You sound just like the Liverpool fans going around saying they'd have 2 more CL trophies and another PL title had they just "won three more games that they threw away".
My point is that the differences are small enough to be considered random luck.
 

erikcred

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'Get to'. You act like EtH was blessed with our incompetent club overpaying.
And when ETH heard that a massive fraction of his transfer budget was going to be spent on a mediocre Antony whom he knew quite well, I'm sure he went "you wot, mate?" and vetoed it.
 

Red the Bear

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Unless they're going for a out of left field option I'd say we're sticking with him, would be too unusual otherwise.
 
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Really sad that the news of Ineos was looking at replacement took place 2 weeks ago, but nothing is decided yet.

Ineos came in December, followed eveythng in the club and sacking Ten Hag should have been done sooner, his replacement should have been there already.

Pre season is almost 2 weeks away now and we're not sure who will be in charge, with what staff etc

We are already losing ground this summer
Pre season is in 2 weeks?

That’s a short break
 

Rockets Redglare

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This is the comparison in just league games. Pretty close between the first three (ETH = Klopp had he won 3 more games which we threw away) & fair to say, ETH has done much better than Arteta and Klopp in cups during his first two seasons.

ETH​
Arteta​
Klopp​
Guardiola​
League Games​
76​
100​
100​
100​
Wins​
41​
63​
54​
73​
Draws​
12​
16​
28​
15​
Losses​
23​
31​
18​
12​
PPG​
1.78​
1.86​
1.90​
2.34​
I’m sorry mate but that’s an absolutely mad post.
If you go over the first couple of seasons for any of those managers there’ll be games they were unlucky to lose or threw away.

You're also skirting round the fact that we won numerous games this season we had no business in winning, which is more damning.
 

Iker Quesadillas

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The comparison in league performance shows that the three managers had similar point tallies. The reason Ten Hag is criticized more than the other two is that performances and point tallies improved over time for Klopp and Arteta whereas they have gone backward for Ten Hag.
 

Robbie Boy

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Today's the day or, maybe not the day. Actually, maybe tomorrow's the day but probably not because it's the weekend. So, Monday is the day or, possibly at some stage next week. It's on.
 

Ronaldo's Love Child

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And when ETH heard that a massive fraction of his transfer budget was going to be spent on a mediocre Antony whom he knew quite well, I'm sure he went "you wot, mate?" and vetoed it.
Agreed. I don't understand why some fans believe a manager operates inside a bubble when it comes to paying transfer fees.

There are those who believe that ETH tells the board which players he wants and then the board go out and spend whatever proportion of the transfer budget is available to acquire those players whilst ETH is blissfully unaware of how his transfer budget is being affected.
 

troylocker

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That's a great post
It's really not though. Here's why:

Arteta and Klopp showed progress and you could see their fingerprint on their teams performances on the pitch.
With ETH it's the opposite.

Here's the hard stats for Klopp, Arteta and ETH for their first seasons in the PL (For Klopp and Arteta I've added their first seasons and their first 2 full seasons dsince they both started mid season):

Klopp:
1st season (started 8/10 2015 - 30 games in the PL)
1,60 points per game (under performance by 0,1 points per game)
+ 0,5 goal difference per game (over performance by 0,03 gd/game)

2nd season (Full season)
2,0 points per game (over performance by 0,14 points per game)
+ 0,95 goal difference per game (over performance by 0,34 gd/game)

3rd season
1,95 points per game (under performance by 0,12 points per game)
+ 1,21 goal difference per game (over performance by 0,42 gd/game)

Arteta:
1st season (Started 22/12 2019 - 20 games in the PL)
1,65 points per game (over performance by 0,33 points per game)
+ 0,55 goal difference per game (over performance by 0,75 gd/game)

2nd season
1,61 points per game (over performance by 0,23 points per game)
+ 0,42 goal difference per game (over performance by 0,18 gd/game)

3rd season
1,81 points per game (over performance by 0,33 points per game)
+ 0,34 goal difference per game (under performance by 0,05 gd/game)

ETH:
1st season
1,97 points per game (over performance by 0,19 points per game)
+ 0,39 goal difference per game (under performance by 0,18 gd/game)

2nd season
1,58 points per game (under performance by 0,41 points per game)
- 0,03 goal difference per game (over performance by 0,35 gd/game)

So you see progress with the first two and the opposite with ETH.

It gets even more interesting when we do the same with the underlying stats instead (from understat.com). In fact it gets really ugly:

Klopp (notice the almost linear improvement from season to season) :
1st season (started 8/10 2015 - 30 games in the PL)
1,70 expected points per game
+ 0,47 expected goal difference per game

2nd season
1,84 expected points per game
+ 0,61 expected goal difference per game

3rd season
2,09 expected points per game
+ 0,79 expected goal difference per game

Arteta (notice the almoxt linear improvement from season to season)
1st season (Started 22/12 2019 - 20 games in the PL)
1,32 expected points per game
- 0,20 expected goal difference per game

2nd season
1,55 expected points per game
+ 0,24 expected goal difference per game

3rd season
1,70 expected points per game
+ 0,39 expected goal difference per game

And then we have ETH - Notice the almost vertical drop from the first season to the second season:
1st season
1,74 expected points per game
+ 0,57 expected goal difference per game

2nd season
1,17 expected points per game
- 0,38 expected goal difference per game

The numbers in that post is meaningless because they don't show the trajectories the 3 managers had in their starting years at the respective clubs.
A graphical presentation of the results and play would be something like this:
Klopp: /
Arteta: /
ETH: \

It should be a stick to beat ETH with if anything. A big one.
Do you still want to find out where ETH's taking us next season?
 

Marcelinho87

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Really sad that the news of Ineos was looking at replacement took place 2 weeks ago, but nothing is decided yet.

Ineos came in December, followed eveythng in the club and sacking Ten Hag should have been done sooner, his replacement should have been there already.

Pre season is almost 2 weeks away now and we're not sure who will be in charge, with what staff etc

We are already losing ground this summer
Nope, the agreement was reached in December.

Sir Jim didn’t land at the club until back end of February.
 

bringbackbebe

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The comparison in league performance shows that the three managers had similar point tallies. The reason Ten Hag is criticized more than the other two is that performances and point tallies improved over time for Klopp and Arteta whereas they have gone backward for Ten Hag.
Agree, and hence why this whole debate about sacking exists (no one wanted to sack ETH last year). It will come down to whether the fall was because of factors he could control (tactics like playing AWB at LB instead of Amass etc) vs factors he could not (injuries, off the field issues etc) & how would other managers have performed under similar circumstances?
 

ayushreddevil9

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The two cups aspect is fair enough if viewed for what it is, but ppg based on games played in cup competitions is daft. It could be based on games against league one or league two sides etc.
But we barely beat league one or league two sides
 

Longshanks

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The two cups aspect is fair enough if viewed for what it is, but ppg based on games played in cup competitions is daft. It could be based on games against league one or league two sides etc.
3 games against championship clubs, 2 against league one and 1 against league two, plus 2 games against Sheriff Trispol and Omonia. So over 10% of the data is from games that would be huge shocks to get anything but a win in.
 

LawCharltonBest

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Covered all bases there hasn't he?
Well yes, he can't lose. If anything happens today he can claim to be the only one who reported it. If it doesn't he can say that he claimed it may not happen.

Going off memory alone, haven't all the big announcements under INEOS so far been on the weekend? Could be wrong.
 

Zed 101

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If Poch beat Pool and City to win FA Cup he’d stay at Chelsea. Simple.
Supposedly Poch left Chelsea because Boehly insisted that all players including Gallagher were up for sale, Poch wanted to exclude certain players but Boehly's model relies on selling home grown players as a priority, in theory Palmer is available for the right price, but Gallagher in particular I think is moving into the final year of his current contract so was a sticking point
 

Judas

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Supposedly Poch left Chelsea because Boehly insisted that all players including Gallagher were up for sale, Poch wanted to exclude certain players but Boehly's model relies on selling home grown players as a priority, in theory Palmer is available for the right price, but Gallagher in particular I think is moving into the final year of his current contract so was a sticking point
From a "business" perspective I get it, but my god would I hate to see us run like that. Such a hollow view, imagine getting excited about all these great homegrown talents and knowing they're the ones the big man upstairs would happily get out of the door first. Grim.
 

Zed 101

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This is the comparison in just league games. Pretty close between the first three (ETH = Klopp had he won 3 more games which we threw away) & fair to say, ETH has done much better than Arteta and Klopp in cups during his first two seasons.

ETH​
Arteta​
Klopp​
Guardiola​
League Games​
76​
100​
100​
100​
Wins​
41​
63​
54​
73​
Draws​
12​
16​
28​
15​
Losses​
23​
31​
18​
12​
PPG​
1.78​
1.86​
1.90​
2.34​
So in a wholly hypothetical situation would anybody pick ETH over either Klopp or Arteta given the choice, if either were available and willing to come to Utd lets face it we would to a man be jumping at the opportunity
 

flameinthesun

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It's really not though. Here's why:

Arteta and Klopp showed progress and you could see their fingerprint on their teams performances on the pitch.
With ETH it's the opposite.

Here's the hard stats for Klopp, Arteta and ETH for their first seasons in the PL (For Klopp and Arteta I've added their first seasons and their first 2 full seasons dsince they both started mid season):

Klopp:
1st season (started 8/10 2015 - 30 games in the PL)
1,60 points per game (under performance by 0,1 points per game)
+ 0,5 goal difference per game (over performance by 0,03 gd/game)

2nd season (Full season)
2,0 points per game (over performance by 0,14 points per game)
+ 0,95 goal difference per game (over performance by 0,34 gd/game)

3rd season
1,95 points per game (under performance by 0,12 points per game)
+ 1,21 goal difference per game (over performance by 0,42 gd/game)

Arteta:
1st season (Started 22/12 2019 - 20 games in the PL)
1,65 points per game (over performance by 0,33 points per game)
+ 0,55 goal difference per game (over performance by 0,75 gd/game)

2nd season
1,61 points per game (over performance by 0,23 points per game)
+ 0,42 goal difference per game (over performance by 0,18 gd/game)

3rd season
1,81 points per game (over performance by 0,33 points per game)
+ 0,34 goal difference per game (under performance by 0,05 gd/game)

ETH:
1st season
1,97 points per game (over performance by 0,19 points per game)
+ 0,39 goal difference per game (under performance by 0,18 gd/game)

2nd season
1,58 points per game (under performance by 0,41 points per game)
- 0,03 goal difference per game (over performance by 0,35 gd/game)

So you see progress with the first two and the opposite with ETH.

It gets even more interesting when we do the same with the underlying stats instead (from understat.com). In fact it gets really ugly:

Klopp (notice the almost linear improvement from season to season) :
1st season (started 8/10 2015 - 30 games in the PL)
1,70 expected points per game
+ 0,47 expected goal difference per game

2nd season
1,84 expected points per game
+ 0,61 expected goal difference per game

3rd season
2,09 expected points per game
+ 0,79 expected goal difference per game

Arteta (notice the almoxt linear improvement from season to season)
1st season (Started 22/12 2019 - 20 games in the PL)
1,32 expected points per game
- 0,20 expected goal difference per game

2nd season
1,55 expected points per game
+ 0,24 expected goal difference per game

3rd season
1,70 expected points per game
+ 0,39 expected goal difference per game

And then we have ETH - Notice the almost vertical drop from the first season to the second season:
1st season
1,74 expected points per game
+ 0,57 expected goal difference per game

2nd season
1,17 expected points per game
- 0,38 expected goal difference per game

The numbers in that post is meaningless because they don't show the trajectories the 3 managers had in their starting years at the respective clubs.
A graphical presentation of the results and play would be something like this:
Klopp: /
Arteta: /
ETH: \

It should be a stick to beat ETH with if anything. A big one.
Do you still want to find out where ETH's taking us next season?
Unless I'm mistaken based on your data Arteta's second season was worse than his first in terms of expected points and goal difference? Regarding EtH's data it highlights just how good a first season he had (taking over a 6th place united vs Arteta taking over a 5th place Arsenal) that his second season resembles Arteta's second season. If you compared Arteta's first 2 seasons and EtH's first 2 seasons is it safe to say EtH has had a better 2 seasons overall?
 

Robbie Boy

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Unless I'm mistaken based on your data Arteta's second season was worse than his first in terms of expected points and goal difference? Regarding EtH's data it highlights just how good a first season he had (taking over a 6th place united vs Arteta taking over a 5th place Arsenal) that his second season resembles Arteta's second season. If you compared Arteta's first 2 seasons and EtH's first 2 seasons is it safe to say EtH has had a better 2 seasons overall?
The Arteta myth is hilarious. He was fecking shite before it clicked. My brother supports Arsenal and couldn't stand him early days. It's also worth noting that he's been there 4.5 seasons and has 1 FA Cup to show for it...
 

LordSpud

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The Arteta myth is hilarious. He was fecking shite before it clicked. My brother supports Arsenal and couldn't stand him early days. It's also worth noting that he's been there 4.5 seasons and has 1 FA Cup to show for it...

He's shite now. We'll win a title again before Arsenal do.