Where would we like our win ratio (points) to be?
Erik ten Hag | 2022/23 & 2023/24
- Thread starter sewey89
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Points. Where do you think we should finish.
No, the emergency squad players aren't of the right profile to be able to execute that style.
And I don't get why people are whinging over what is clearly an interim problem. There's nothing to suggest sitting deep yields better points, especially when you're relying on a youth project and out of form winger to help carry the attack.
What?
Unfortuately the article is not for available for me. Anyway, seems like we're on the same page here, ETH pushed for Antony, the club was reluctant at first and only got him after we entered a panick mode. Ignoring the fee, it's just shocking that a manager who worked with Antony for 2 years thought he's a PL level player.
Yeah that is the worry with Ten Hag. Seems like he needs world class players in world class form to play good football, otherwise our style is atrocious. This wouldn't be such a problem if he could keep Rashford playin on high level, unfortunately it seems like he just got lucky with Rash, Martinez, and Casemiro form last season.
We could play regular 4231 this season, it's not like we generate so many chances with the high pressing anyway. And we should definitely keep using Bruno as a #10 instead of pretending he will become a more all round midfielder/#8. Lots of options, unfortunately ETH seems to have his idea of how to play football and it's not really like he's experimenting much.
No, that's not what happened. Athletic reported ten hag himself was hesitant to go to Ajax. They chose unanimously however that he was the player to move for. Talks stopped midway. Then restarted. Ten hag challenged his superiors to go as far as they could, and they were in agreement that Antony was the name to push for. The financial sanctioning and checks and balances were all done above ten hag. At no point was there hesitancy from Murtough on doubting him as a player for us.
In other words, Antony was very much a club pursuit as much as it was a managerial one.
No, he just needs the right profile. Asking to play a left back at left back isn't an outlandish need. He was ready to bin Maguire and get Todibo /Kim or whoever. That would have helped us play the higher line we need, and none of these players are world class.
Funnily enough we are underperforming our XG for (-6.5) and massively over performing our defence (XGA +11). This would suggest that our forwards are wasteful, and sitting deep to counter wouldn't alleviate that. If anything it may well exasperate it.
Coutner football is actually not sustainable over the course of a season to build a squad unless the forwards are absolutely ruthless, which his are not.
There are plenty of excuses for Ten Hag this season, I mean he is the ultimate "benefit of the doubt" manager. Depending on how you take it, you might as well be very "forgiving" (as you are) or not so much (as I am). In the end, I didn't see us play good football (apart from some one-offs) since the Carabao Cup final last season, and in some of that time we had all/almost all players available. That makes me think ETH isn't the man to take us higher than just winning the games we should be winning anyway with the squad we have.
He is doing not better than OK this season (considering the injuries obviously), but the style of play is terrible so I wouldn't mind if he left in the summer (I don't think it makes sense to let him go earlier).
Haha. My point is we are not too far off, especially if you factor in the circumstances. Where were Pool last year?
I think it easily could have been 70% without the excess of injuries we‘ve suffered.
So we would be 'easily' as good as City, Liverpool and Arsenal if we did not have a few extra injuries over average? I very much doubt it.
Not surprised you feel this way. After spending hundreds of hours on the caf, you've probably convinced yourself he's another Pep/Klopp in the making.
I have no way of proving my theory but I truly believe that if we had had a normal share of injuries and those who weren’t out with injury played to their known normal form we would easily be snuggled in the top four. Not challenging for the PL trophy but bit that far off.
Some of you would deserve Southgate
Pretty much this.
I think we would be much closer to Spurs / Villa, possibly above them but not close to Liverpool, Arsenal and City. Probably around 55 points now and finishing season on 75-77.
I do not at all buy that we would be on 63-65 points now and finishing close to 85-90 range.
All fair assesments in my view. I am more forgiving than you, and it’s a matter of taste, belief and perspective, I guess.
What I base my taste on, is watching two very different iterations of Ajax play better teams and weaker teams in CL and Eredivisie, and completely loving the football style.
The basis for my belief, is the premise that United by summer of 22 were at least 10-12 top notch players of the right profile from being able to play anything like that for a whole season in PL plus cups, and at leats a couple of seasons to bed in the style with ongoing replacements. 10 new players you can get in three windows, 10 top notch players of a particular profile will more likely take three years, given that the right recryitment set up is already in place. So I didn’t expect a full season of Ten Hagball at all last year, and for me the fact that we played a very good amount of entertaining football from september to february was more than enough to think that he can do it for a whole season given time and the right fit of players. The fact that he managed to get the teams to scrape in enough points for a third place and a FA Cup final after february, was in that view a bonus, not a detriment, cause I never expected a full seasons of good football.
This season has been a trainwreck, and as you point out, more about guessing/believing to what degree anything we see this year is representative of what we’re likely to see next season. I think the bouts of very bad football is circumstantial, and even as I think that it’s likely Ten Hag as well as others has made mistakes this season contributing to that, I have enough belief that they will learn from those mistakes or be replaced by an evluation much more knowledgeable than mine. So I’m fairly optimistic and positive at this point.
To me, I’ve seen so many times teams biting their way through an injury crisis just to struggle even more with flow and results after all players are back, so I don’t even expect much from the rest of this season. I have pretty good faith that Brailsford and Berrada rt al will make good assesments of what is worthy of support looking behind tje scenes, and if they are impressed with Ten Hag it will be about other things than the results and flow of football the remainder of this season. CL or no trophy. These are people that go for tarhets, but evaluate processes. My biggest worry, on Ten Hag’s behalf, if my belief in him is well founded, is that he might lose rhe players on a season like this. If you lose the bulk of a squad, it doesn’t help what you know or how much support you get, it’s not gonna work. So the despondency during the Fulham game, that really worried me, not result or playstyle (a loss after five straight wins, a makeshift playstyle getting results most games in a transition). In that respect, the Liverpool game was doubly significant as a potential sign. The players followed Ten Hag to the letter for fourty minutes, and it worked. They fell together as usual when they tired, were disappointed and confused, when the collective guts crumbled - but they didn’t cave in. They kept fighting, although confusedly, keeping down the scores in the worst part of the game. And they took aboard all Ten Hags trickeries toward the end of second half and in the extra time, and played best, and fought hardest, and were rewarded. That to me hints at the players being unsure about themselves more maybe than about Ten Hag, and that every boost given will be an important investment in next preseason and next season. But this is just reading tea leaves, mostly, on my part.
Either way, I haven’t had so much fun in years watching United than I did last Sunday.
100% comes down to this. I think ETH wants the first and tries to implement it but understands we don't have the player profile for that, so is ok with the latter style of less control but better line of defense. You or I or fans may prefer more control and higher line of defense but I think ETH is ok with the later for now, while we slowly work on our pressing.
I think he is a brilliant coach, that doesn't necessarily mean his chosen way today will work out with results. But I don't think that will determine if he continues for us. I think his future with us depends on his ability to convince INEOS (with data that shows improved pressing etc) that we are on the way to implementing his vision
So a better win % than Liverpool and City (Arsenal's is 71%)?
Basically you think we'd have been a title race with Shaw and Martinez fit for more games. Delusional.
Someone should do the math, we don‘t draw a lot of games. I think we were sitting at 62% after a 100 games.
OK, but here's the rub - if he plays pragmatically with the squad he has, everyone moans that they either don't like his style or the direction he's headed, and he doesn't make any progress to where he wants to be. I actually like the fact that the hill he wants to die on is playing the style he's trying to implement. Either give him the players he needs or fire him.
Would City or Pool have the status and standing they currently have if Pep or Klop didn't have the world class players they have? Their benches are full of world class players. If one falls out of form, they have another to back them up.
Ten Hag hasn't managed 100 league games for us. The lack of draws in a small sample doesn't indicate anything in particular.
Why is it bizarre? Every post I see from you on here is the same, excuses here and there any everywhere. We have been wide open all season, regardless of who was playing. Fulham was not an exception. But you seem determined to refute every argument about ETH. You go on about players not 'preferred long term solutions' for example. How many managers are given the time to realize long term solutions. I know we have suffered a lot with injuries, but multiple sources have also pointed fingers at ETH for lack of rotation, too tough preseason and training etc. But my point was that we still have a lot of very experienced players in the most expensive squad in the league. Liverpool dominated City with a make shift defense. Lindelolf may not be a left back but he is still a very experienced international defender and was captain of his country. You talk as if these players are rank amateurs.
I don't get the obsession some people develop with managers and defending them. Approaching 50 years as an active fan I've seen plenty of them. I think you are the one with the 'bizarre' replies. I know what good, attacking football looks like, which is the DNA of this club, and I can count on one hand the number of times we have seen it this season. And there were plenty of games last year where we were poor, especially in latter period of the season. Despite spending £400m we are still left with huge gaps in the squad and several ETH singings that need replacing. I see you banging on about Antony elsewhere in this thread. Try and get a little perspective
You are suggesting 'easily' 70% which means we would be on 20 wins at least (from 28 games). That is 5 extra wins vs what we have. We have drawn 2 games and lost 11, so in worst case scenario we would turn 2 draws into wins (+ 4 points) and 3 defeats into wins (+ 9 points), putting us on 60 points and well in the title race.
Realistically though, we would not be on 20 wins and 8 defeats, so would likely need to add 3-4 more points for extra draws.
I think anyone is going to agree that even at full strength our team is far weaker than any of the top 3 too, so you are basically suggesting ETH is worth a good few extra points vs Arteta, Klopp and Pep. Not saying this is wrong necessarily.
Your point about our ETH being willing to die on the hill of his playing style makes no sense. He has already said he isn't trying to play the style of football ajax played and for the most of his time in charge the football has appeared pretty pragmatic and frankly dull hence the low numbers of goals we have scored. You make it sound like we have been seeing cavalier attacking football all the time
I’ve been ETH out for at least 3 months, however if he can secure CL football and get to another Wembley Final, I’m willing to give him one more year to prove himself, giving him time due to inheriting an inadequate squad and huge injuries issues this season, none of that however defends his abysmal loss rate this season and he should be told in no uncertain circumstances that should the club not be in the Top 3/4 after the first 12/13 PL games next season he will be replaced. At the same time if he wins the FA Cup a very difficult title to win with Coventry, Chelsea or Man City possibly still to meet, then two trophies and two CL qualification in 2 years, we start negotiating a 3 year extension to his contract at Xmas providing United are still in all competitions. He won me back with that performance against Liverpool where he proved that he can mix it with the best and has the tactical nous to make game changing decisions.
Lets be clear here we’ve played well in maybe 3 to 4 games this season and only in spells, not once have we dominated anybody for a full 90 minutes, however his indomitable will is a trait I can get behind, providing he stops being so stubborn with certain players.
He proved last year he can mix it against Barca, City, Liverpool and Arsenal, we need to set specific targets for ETH as only when he’s under pressure does he seem to produce that stubbornness in the right way!
I say all this knowing that he could set up 4–1-2-3 against Brentford, get turned over 3 or 4 nil again and then we’re back to wanting him sacked again, this pressure is on him his team lost 16 from 40 games or 40% loss rate!
Ineos need to say to ETH there are 11/12 games left this season, he can’t lose anymore than 2 more games and he has to win 8 or 9 of those left, if his stubbornness gets him into final position of P52 W31 D3 L18 and top4/5 CL and an Fa Cup then he deserves a further year?
What is very concerning however is that United have played 40 games in all competitions this season and scored only 65 goals and conceded 60 goals that’s an average of 1.65 goals scored per game and 1.50 goals conceded per game!
In ETH first season his team scored only 107 goals from 63 games or 1.70 goals per game however we’ve conceded more this year in 40 games than the team conceded in 63 last year 57 goals conceded in 63 Games is 0.90 goals per game and that difference of 0.6 goals extra every game this season is the reason why ETH job is on the line, had he recognised this like all elite coaches should , he would have made necessary corrections earlier and not have lost to Forrest, West Ham and Fulham since the Xmas period and the club would probably have top 4 in the bag.
I’m not sure whether he’s got an 8 out 10 in the PL record and 2 out of 2 wins in the FA Cup but that’s what it’s going to take for him to stay in a job, only 71 points makes top 4/5 this season.
Lets be clear here we’ve played well in maybe 3 to 4 games this season and only in spells, not once have we dominated anybody for a full 90 minutes, however his indomitable will is a trait I can get behind, providing he stops being so stubborn with certain players.
He proved last year he can mix it against Barca, City, Liverpool and Arsenal, we need to set specific targets for ETH as only when he’s under pressure does he seem to produce that stubbornness in the right way!
I say all this knowing that he could set up 4–1-2-3 against Brentford, get turned over 3 or 4 nil again and then we’re back to wanting him sacked again, this pressure is on him his team lost 16 from 40 games or 40% loss rate!
Ineos need to say to ETH there are 11/12 games left this season, he can’t lose anymore than 2 more games and he has to win 8 or 9 of those left, if his stubbornness gets him into final position of P52 W31 D3 L18 and top4/5 CL and an Fa Cup then he deserves a further year?
What is very concerning however is that United have played 40 games in all competitions this season and scored only 65 goals and conceded 60 goals that’s an average of 1.65 goals scored per game and 1.50 goals conceded per game!
In ETH first season his team scored only 107 goals from 63 games or 1.70 goals per game however we’ve conceded more this year in 40 games than the team conceded in 63 last year 57 goals conceded in 63 Games is 0.90 goals per game and that difference of 0.6 goals extra every game this season is the reason why ETH job is on the line, had he recognised this like all elite coaches should , he would have made necessary corrections earlier and not have lost to Forrest, West Ham and Fulham since the Xmas period and the club would probably have top 4 in the bag.
I’m not sure whether he’s got an 8 out 10 in the PL record and 2 out of 2 wins in the FA Cup but that’s what it’s going to take for him to stay in a job, only 71 points makes top 4/5 this season.
I mean, even with just a tiny bit more luck and avoiding some appalling decisions from the referees, we could easily be on 10 more points at 57 at this stage, which wouldn't be that far away from a title challenge, albeit obviously very unlikely still.
Definitely not. We have also had our fair share of luck and favorable referee decisions which got us at least a few extra points. I think we are lucky enough to be sitting on 47 points as our xPTS is much lower than that. The notion that we have been screwed by referees / extremely unlucky in games to be sitting on 47 points is very much incorrect.
Of all the 11 losses we've had, the only ones where luck/referees could have helped us was Arsenal away (Garnacho's offside goal) and maybe Spurs away (we were quite good in the first half and should have had a penatly). The losses against City were not even a contest, we lost heavily to Brighton and Bournemouth at OT, we were hopeless against Newcastle, no amount of luck in these games could have swayed it the other way. Nottingham, Palace, West Ham, Fulham I don't think you can put down to luck either, and these losses are easily outweighed by all the close wins we've had in games that could have gone either way like Burnley, Luton, Sheffield, Fulham, Wolves, Brentford and Villa. We have about 6-7 wins where we were clearly the better side this season, 5 losses where we were clearly the worse team and a whole host of games that were 50/50, of which we seem to have won exactly half and lost the other half.
We have had two draws this season, against Liverpool and Tottenham and we were easily second best in both games.
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The thing is - I doubt that "working on your pressing" will work this way. To get it really effective it has to be cohesive along the team. By allowing some players to drop out of the formation (the defenders by dropping deeper) you open up gaps that you usually don't want. In every pressing formation the forwards will open gaps between them that can be played through (because that's inevitable if you don't have 20 players in the first line), but the midfield and defence should position in a way that they will be at the end of these gaps and can intercept balls played through the first line. And the way it currently goes means that these interceptors are missing almost completely. So they can't get used to where to position in relation to the forwards pressing, and the forwards can't get a feeling for which gaps are ok/useful, and which are dangerous, when they leave them open.
I'm basically in the same place. I was vehemently ETH out before, and I still don't think he will lead us to a league win / CL triumph even with better players / management, but we cannot possibly fire him if he delivers top 5 and FA Cup this year. There's definitely been improvement in recent weeks and if we continue on the same trajectory he will have earned another season.
I also don't think firing him to replace him with Potter or Southgate makes any sense at all.
With less luck than we've had in the narrow wins we could easily be bottom half.
We are sitting at 62%+ (?) after basically a drop off in form since February last year until Xmas. Figure in the bad luck from injuries and we aren‘t doing terrible with this squad.
That's fair. I should probably say we are as a team working on it with the high line part not working well.
But we could have quite easily have far fewer points than we do have, we have allowed so many chances in some games that other teams have missed. Calling injuries bad luck also ignores the impact the manager and msdical staff have had on them
Sorry. WE DOMINATED THE MIDFIELD AGAINST LIVERPOOL THOUGH.
We're at 58% after 63 league games under Ten Hag. 60% (23 wins in 38) last season and 54% (15 in 28) this season.
70% is a pipe dream, and I'm sure the last time we actually managed it in a league season was in Fergie's last year.
On the subject of benchmarks and what is acceptable, I spent the entire preseason of 2022/23 banging on about 75 points being the benchmark for a "good" season. We pulled that off, and threw in a cup to add some gloss. This season, I would have been okay with a repeat of that, ideally closer to 80. Right now our points-per-game has us on course to finish on 64, which is pretty much the bare minimum with the team we have, injuries or no injuries. That's why this talk about the supposedly vastly improved 2024 form doesn't really hold water for me yet.
We've picked up 19 points from the last 10 games, compared to 16 in the 10 before that - if we do noticeably better than that in the last 10 games of the season and crack 70+ points to finish, I'll have much more faith in the manager and team. Based on how we've been playing (all season or since the new year, take your pick, really) I don't see it happening.
62% is his total throughout his United career but it's somewhat inflated by being in Europa League last year with a very easy group where we won 5 out of 6, having a historically easy League Cup run (won 6 out of 6) as well as being at home for all FA Cup games last year (4 out of 6 wins). We were at 67% win rate last season with basically perfect injury record and favorable draws.
We are at 21 wins in 40 games this season, so 52%. We would need 9 extra wins to get to 70% overall.
For the record, City got to 73% last season while winning the treble. You are basically saying we would easily be in similar territory if it wasn't for injuries. And since everyone is bound to agree we have a worse squad than City, you are basically rating Ten Hag as a vastly superior manager to Guardiola by expecting him to have a similar record with this team.
Our xPTS for this season so far is 36. That would place us 13th.
We really cannot claim we are only 6th because of referees and extremely bad luck, it is just not true. I get that we are excited with Liverpool win and the team playing better in recent weeks but all these claims of how we would be winning the league if it wasn't for Martinez and Shaw being out, or we would be comfortably up there with City, Liverpool and Arsenal if only we were more lucky and referees did not screw us over, that is just living in denial. Let's be real.
This, but I really don't see it either for different reasons. We need 23 pts from 10 games (2.3 PPG) to hit 70 pts. If we manage that, that's basically title winning form. The top 3 are at something like 2.3 PPG this year.
If he manages a CL spot I think it's good enough to go for another season given all the injuries and drama he had to deal with. We have moderately easier fixtures than Spurs / Villa and there will be plenty of dropped points. Historical top 5 points totals were 67 pts, 69 pts, 66 pts, 62 pts, 70 pts, 70 pts, 75 pts, 66 pts, 64 pts, 72 pts (avg = 68.1)
It's looking like this season will be similar - high 60s if not 70+ for a top 5 finish.
xPts is a laughably bad metric.
Yup, as a standalone it certainly is.
This is exactly where I am and suspect many United fans, it’s the hope that kills you, we want consistency, we want a team that averages 2 goals per game and concedes less an average of less than 1 goal, last season was 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 goals conceded all competitions that was including easy games in Europa league and Carabo cup, we stepped up this season to CL and ETH got found out, I want to believe that the penny finally dropped for him and he now realised how many mistakes he’s made in team selection and in game tactics, I want him to show consistency in selection and strategy, difficult game play 4231 with the team more compact, it’s important to remember last year his team only scored 58 PL goals at an average of 1.52 goals per game and conceded 43 at an average of 1.13 goals per game, which we as never the stars of the third best team in the PL.
This season United have scored 39 in 28 games average of 1.39 goals and conceded 39 average of 1.39 goals, we score less we concede more, hence why we’ve lost 11 games this season in the PL, it’s too easy to beat us.
There’s 10 games left in the PL and for me I want to see attacking football I want to see the stats for the last 10 games look like this; Score 25 and concede 10, win 8, draw 1, lose 1 finish on 72 points, however that is simply wishful thinking on my part and not going to happen?
Ps in those last 10 PL games where we won 6, drew 1 and lost 3, the club scored 21 goals and conceded 16.
Let’s put this in perspective we scored 18 PL goals in 18 PL games before that 3-2 win against Villa. In any other season the manager gets sacked after halfway through the season having that record!
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