man, this is pandemic period. When the stadium has no fans, what’s the difference between home and away games?
I feel ridiculous that news reporters and pundits keep talking away or home form. Unbelievable non-sense, really.
EPL Title Race 20/21
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man, this is pandemic period. When the stadium has no fans, what’s the difference between home and away games?
I feel ridiculous that news reporters and pundits keep talking away or home form. Unbelievable non-sense, really.
These numbers only represent the public opinion among the gamblers.
Has there been any statistical analysis on whether no fans has actually resulted in better away results across the whole league? I'd be very surprised if there is absolutely no correlation between being the home team and better results.
Part of the advantage of playing at home is the comfort and familiarity of surroundings, consistency in routine, not having to travel etc. as well as the confidence playing at home may bring (whether it's justified or not).
I think we could be guilty of thinking because United's home form is bad and away form good then this must mean home advantage doesn't exist for anyone else either. I think part of United's issue is just pure variance. For example those games against Palace and Spurs early on, I can't be convinced we'd have got anything from those if they were away games instead - if you're unfit or not at the races then you're going to lose, our win at Brighton was beyond undeserved. Home/away form tends to vary somewhat randomly season to season, over a small sample size it could easily just be coincidence. The other factor I think is just teams play less expansive at OT and we struggle with that style.
Our away form has been terrible since the restart in June. That’s with all but one game having no fans. At Anfield we’ve drawn two and won the rest. Make of that what you will.
I am just thinking this intuitively. The factor of fans is obviously the most important one because the allocation of tickets to home and away supporters are not fair. I would say it’s the most important principle component even though it’s not the only one.
I have no data from all teams this season, with data it’s not difficult to quantify the correlation. But, no, I am not aware of any statistical study about this. Of course, I could be wrong.
However, if we take traits from the league table, the chaotic nature suggests the vanishing of some dominant factors from the normal seasons is the cause. Before the season, except Chelsea, most teams could only enhance the squads in an moderated and organic way. So, the absence of fans in game is the most likely to be the most important factor.
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The race for the title hasn't even started yet. Not even half way through the season and very little separation between 'title challengers', European places, midtable to top of the table.
There are five teams within 4 points of the current top (33) and this doesn't include Villa who have two games in hand. If you give City max points (6) to their two games in hand, then they would max out at 35 points from 17 matches...only one point behind United's max potential points from 17 matches.
It's exciting and very nice that United have the most wins through X amount of match weeks, which obviously sees them at the top of the table. However the excitement and giddiness will easily turn into ecstatic desperation if United beat Burnley and are clear at the top before the Liverpool clash - either by a point or 3 points if United get a positive result. And too many people will go over the top and lose any sense of context per usual.
A maximum of 36 points through 17 matches for a Premier League leader is one of the lowest totals in the past 10 years and the lack of separation between every table position from 1 to 10 is minimal.
There are five teams within 4 points of the current top (33) and this doesn't include Villa who have two games in hand. If you give City max points (6) to their two games in hand, then they would max out at 35 points from 17 matches...only one point behind United's max potential points from 17 matches.
It's exciting and very nice that United have the most wins through X amount of match weeks, which obviously sees them at the top of the table. However the excitement and giddiness will easily turn into ecstatic desperation if United beat Burnley and are clear at the top before the Liverpool clash - either by a point or 3 points if United get a positive result. And too many people will go over the top and lose any sense of context per usual.
A maximum of 36 points through 17 matches for a Premier League leader is one of the lowest totals in the past 10 years and the lack of separation between every table position from 1 to 10 is minimal.
Arsenalmania now thinks they are in the title race as well and will catch Liverpool over the next 8-10 games. Says a lot about this season.
My bet is on City. Think they will win it with a 10+ point margin as well.
It all depends on us dealing with pressure.
Remember that we're going to play only Sunday games from February on, as we'll have to play in UEFA Europa League. We'll be the ones cacthing others, most probably.
Remember that we're going to play only Sunday games from February on, as we'll have to play in UEFA Europa League. We'll be the ones cacthing others, most probably.
Amazing result to wake up to.
We need to go for it at Anfield. Not kamikaze style, but proactive enough. Worst case we're still top. Best case, an away win and a psychological blow to Liverpool.
Wow, imagining both sides of Manchester are getting giddy.
We need to go for it at Anfield. Not kamikaze style, but proactive enough. Worst case we're still top. Best case, an away win and a psychological blow to Liverpool.
Wow, imagining both sides of Manchester are getting giddy.
Liverool have just lost allowing us the chance to continue a great run of form and go 3 points clear. Put your life savings on us losing the next match.
But you think they will finish outside top 4?
What? Were you watching the game? 1 shot (a weak one) on target the whole game and you call that enough chances to win the game.
Of course they don't look convincing, but they've underachieved lately in at least 3 games I've seen in the last month. They will bounce back soon, and it's not like they are chasing the pack right now.
City are on similar level to us, but Liverpool are still ahead.
Madness isn’t it, we get very hyperbolic quickly over a few results, they are the team to beat still, but it’s excellent they look much weaker now!
Duh-uh
No, but they might. It is very close near the top. We could miss it as well with a poor run.
Not at all. These are the odds that the bookmakers have set. They change round to round but have nothing to do with gamblers and everything to do with quantitative analysis and risk management.
And how does a bookmaker assess the risk? It is linked to their financial liability... related to where punters have put their money.
There is a huge impact of having no fans in the stadiums: https://www.freebetoffers.org.uk/how-no-fans-are-affecting-football-results-and-goals/
No. If the bookie believes the chances of Team A to beat Team B are higher, the odds will reflect that. If many punters bet on Team B, they will analyze if they are missing something or may even flag the game to the federation to check for integrity issues (fixed games, etc.). But money doesn't sway the odds.
I see, just you said they would a few posts ago.
Hope you’re right! Love to see a big crash from them.
That was more my wish hehe.
I think it could happen. Liverpool look like conceding most of the time and they struggle to score goals now as well.
Fecking Europa League
Oh mate, if they somehow finished 5th, and we won the league, with a flurry of dodgy penalties too!
Its a super tight season, but its important to remember that we had a dreadful start, with 2 heavy defeats and a sketchy away win over Brighton. Meanwhile Everton, Villa, Leicester and Liverpool all won their first three games, meaning they were 6 points clear of us early on. Our form since the Spurs loss however has been fantastic.
So a lot depends on how you view our slow start. If you think it was just an aberration due to the summer's endeavours and our non-preseason, then actually our form this season is even better. Obviously if you think the slow start speaks to more fundamental problems in the team, then its harder to ignore those poor games at the start.
Also noticeable is that City are in a very similar boat. They also had a slow start (1 win in 3) but have really pulled ahead of the pack in terms of form ever since. Assuming they win their game in hand, it looks more like we might see a United - City race a this point rather than a United - Liverpool one.
| Position | Club | Played | W | D | L | Scored:Conceded | GD | Points |
| 1 | Man Utd | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 28:13 | 15 | 30 |
| 2 | Man City | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 18:6 | 12 | 25 |
| 3 | Liverpool | 13 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 26:10 | 16 | 24 |
| 4 | Southampton | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 21:13 | 8 | 23 |
| 5 | Leicester | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 19:14 | 5 | 23 |
| 6 | Spurs | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 17:10 | 7 | 22 |
| 7 | West Ham | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 16:17 | -1 | 20 |
| 8 | Chelsea | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 22:15 | 7 | 19 |
| 9 | Aston Villa | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 18:14 | 4 | 17 |
| 10 | Everton | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 14:15 | -1 | 17 |
So a lot depends on how you view our slow start. If you think it was just an aberration due to the summer's endeavours and our non-preseason, then actually our form this season is even better. Obviously if you think the slow start speaks to more fundamental problems in the team, then its harder to ignore those poor games at the start.
Also noticeable is that City are in a very similar boat. They also had a slow start (1 win in 3) but have really pulled ahead of the pack in terms of form ever since. Assuming they win their game in hand, it looks more like we might see a United - City race a this point rather than a United - Liverpool one.
Says a lot about Arsenalmania actually
It goes against what we would've wanted under Fergie, but maybe this current team will deal with the pressure of chasing and being forced to win to catch up better than being the pace setter. Of course at some point in the season you need to be on top with a bit of breathing room, I just think the longer we can maintain our 'underdog' status vs. Liverpool's perceived superiority it might work in our favour. There's also the risk when playing after everyone else that if they drop points the pressure of us losing is alleviated somewhat which no doubt plays on minds... feck! It's a psychological minefield. That said, since Bruno the mentality has changed and there seems to be a feeling of fortitude within the squad. Beating City in the semi tomorrow would be another marker that we are evolving into a more ruthless and consistent team.
Not a title race but if Arsenal win their next game and we beat Liverpool, they go 6 pts behind them!
21, 21, Man united...
You'll get used to it quickly haha
And their next 6 fixtures include trips to Spurs, West Ham, Leicester and City home. Arsenalmania thinks they would catch Liverpool by then and obviously the other teams above them currently all suck.
Money does exactly that - for a particular bookmaker
A 6 point game mate, I think Ole will start a bit more pragmatic and then switch to something more proactive but Liverpool are there to be beaten, so I would rather see us to go after them even with some more defensive players but aggressive play rather then sit deeper and hope Rashford and Martial have good games up front. I think if we start with our best 11, the same one against Villa with Matic in for McT. We will see a very good game..
I agree to an extent but there is still a more than sizeable proportion of the rebuild to go. At least 3 positions need filling with long-term, first choice acquisitions (RW CB and DM). Four if you include an attacking RB alternative to AWB and 5 if you include a striker once Cavani goes.
I'd argue if we had bought just two of the players Ole wanted this summer just gone, then I'd be expecting a proper title push next season but as it is, I think it will happen a season later (unless the likes of McTominay and Fred kick in to another gear that they haven't yet shown). For me, the target next season is continuing the improvement and getting much further in the CL (if we make it).
that is why this season represent our best chance for a title in the last 7 years.
With the benefit of hindsight. we should have sent our b team for the finals of Europa and give the first team rest and proper pre-season. If we got 3-5 points out 3 first games we would be in a much better postion right now.
All ifs and buts but we need to focus on the league right now.
The game against Liverpool on the 17th now takes on huge importance. City have an easy run of games but Liverpool are still the team to beat, without a shadow of a doubt.
City hadn't looked at all convincing up until that Chelsea game so I don't know why everyone is shitting themselves about them now. They have the potential to play themselves into a bit of form but equally they could be a de Bruyne injury away from crisis.
City hadn't looked at all convincing up until that Chelsea game so I don't know why everyone is shitting themselves about them now. They have the potential to play themselves into a bit of form but equally they could be a de Bruyne injury away from crisis.
No serious bookmaker will change odds because of high amount of bets, solely. It may be a trigger for them to further analyze and find something they've missed in their model, but money does not change odds for the big bookmakers.
I’m almost certain we will go for 0-0. I think we can get it.
It’s exactly what it does, doesn’t it? Bookmakers make money on the margin and it’s reliant on the distribution of bets being aligned with the odds.
I don't think we have ever or will ever go into a game looking for a 0-0.
Yep. We need to end their home run. Its the crutch they are relying on at the minute.