troylocker
Evens winner of 'Odds or Evens 2023/2024'
- Joined
- May 2, 2019
- Messages
- 2,894
Take away the 3 matches we played before Ronaldo came this season:Don't be a dick. The data doesn't really show that. Last season we had 54.8 NPxG across 38 games, for 1.44 NPxG per match. This season we have 26.12 NPxG across 19 games, for 1.37 NPxG. It's lower, but we've not gone from a potent attack to an impotent one. We still had fewer players than City, Chelsea and Liverpool ranking high on build up metrics even last season.
So your hypothesis is that if United ditch Ronaldo and just play Cavani and/or Martial up top, all the other problems in the side will dissipate and we will at least be back to where we were last season (even though the data suggests they are less effective goalscorers and even all-round centre forwards)? Presumably, we would be even better given the positive comments on the suitability of the Varane and Sancho signings you have made in the last 24 hours, in contrast to the signing of Ronaldo?
The 3 first matches (without Ronaldo): 1,62 npxG per game and 0,99 xGA per game (expected goals against)
This season with Ronaldo: 1,33 npxG per game and 1,63 xGA per game
So the real difference in created chances this season with Ronaldo vs. last season is 0,11 npxG per game. Ronaldo has underachieved his npxG by 29%, which means that the difference in actual non-penalty goals per game with Ronaldo this season (1,31) vs. actual non-penalty goals scored per game last season (1,66) is 0,35 goals per match or around 13 goals over a season. That is a lot of points lost in a season.
.....but, the main problem is, like I said, what we do when we don't have the ball and what we do when we lose possession and how that affects our output in both ends of the pitch. And that starts with the worst presser in the top 5 leagues:
Last season: 41,92 xGA (expected goals against)/1,10 per 90.
This season: 29,08 xGA / 1,53 per 90.