Cold War against China?

sglowrider said:
You just have to look at the map below and you wonder why China thinks the way it does.

Its all along its trade routes and oil supply line. How is China a military threat to the US? Where are the Chinese bases around the US?

Its not like during the Cold War when the Soviets had allies and bases in quite a few countries incl the Eastern Bloc.

The difference here is pure economics. The US sees China as its biggest economic adversary for the foreseeable future and is using military intimidation to 'compete.'

Imagine if there were as many 'Chinese' bases globally and the US is where China is today, surrounded? What would the media, and US gov't's narrative be?
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This is always the case with any country trying to challenge US dominance. It is still the only superpower after all, it effectively surrounds (or is inside) all countries.
But I think the sanctions have been changing their minds a lot more than the bases, that have been around for decades.
 
berbatrick said:
This is always the case with any country trying to challenge US dominance. It is still the only superpower after all, it effectively surrounds (or is inside) all countries.
But I think the sanctions have been changing their minds a lot more than the bases, that have been around for decades.
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The thing is if you are a 'superpower' and seen as a 'good guy', then there is less of an issue. But the number of botch-ups, some illegal the US has had in the last couple of decades, its eroded that perception.
From WMD to Trump and the domestic embarrassments like constant school/mass shootings to Jan 6th to the impotence of the gov't to work to the Covid response recently, that shining house on the hill is just what it used to be.

Nobody wants to be like Mike the US anymore. If nobody wants to be like you, then whatever its selling just doesn't smell the same anymore. Who aspires to be like the US 'democratic' system anymore? Very very few.

That's why the US is now seen as a bully now with that shift in perception. And it will take a massive course correct and billions of dollars in soft power to change that deteriorating brand perception.
 
Raoul said:
They're no more being forced to invade Taiwan than Russia was forced to invade Ukraine. There are authoritarian dictatorships seeking to use war and manufactured nationalism as a distraction against growing domestic pro-democracy sentiment.
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Especially in the context of this particular government as well and the aftermath of everything going to shit (COVID, other diseases, restrictions, high unemployment rate among youths, ageing population, weak economic recovery, etc.). Not that the previous CCP presidents were altar boys, but they did enough to avoid being a lightning rod for more problems on the geopolitical front.

sglowrider said:
I live in Asia now.

Where I am, the US used to be looked upon very favourably but its been losing that position gradually in the past few years, especially amongst the younger generation. They don't see the US as the 'good guys' anymore -- more like the bullies at the moment. It needs to concentrate on soft power rather than some iron-fisted approach.
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I don't know which country in Asia would hold such sentiment to a high level as of today, but I can say that the percentage of those with a favorable opinion in the US has risen while that same opinion about China plummeted in a number of Asian countries and Australia. 2020 was a disaster year for favorable opinions of the US because of the pandemic and of Donald Trump, but those numbers came way back up in the last 2 years (Pew Research source).

Speaking of iron-fisted approach, the graphs in this other Pew Research article show things have chaged between 2002 and 2022. South Korea and China used to hold very favorable views of China in the early 2000s but those favorable views went down the toilet because of many reasons. The Philippines, India and Vietnam also hoped things to go better with China through various resets some time ago, but they also had to accept reality and that shock also came with a price at times. Xi's Wolf Warrior diplomacy only made things worse, and no reset can make it any better.

We can complain about the US all we want and say they have to make up for the last 20 years, but China also have their work cut out for them after Xi undid 40 years of intelligent diplomacy.
 
Raoul said:
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Seems like the western world does the same mistake again with Xi, as they did with Putin. Ignore all warning signs and threats for short-term money. We need a 180 degree turn right now and start to outsource productions to other countries immediately. Xi needs to understand beforehand that he will starve, if he tries the same tactic as Putin. That's the only chance to avoid war with Xi in the near future I fear.
 
sglowrider said:
You just have to look at the map below and you wonder why China thinks the way it does.


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Its all along its trade routes and oil supply line. How is China a military threat to the US? Where are the Chinese bases around the US?

Its not like during the Cold War when the Soviets had allies and bases in quite a few countries incl the Eastern Bloc.

The difference here is pure economics. The US sees China as its biggest economic adversary for the foreseeable future and is using military intimidation to 'compete.'

Imagine if there were as many 'Chinese' bases globally and the US is where China is today, surrounded? What would the media, and US gov't's narrative be?
Click to expand...

China is a growing military threat to US allies in the region. Apart from Taiwan, China has explicitly laid claim to territory also claimed by load of other nations in the South China Sea and created its own bases to enable it to enforce those claims.

How many of US bases pre-date the modern rise of China? How many of these bases have underpinned the long term stability of the entire region?

The US and its allies in the Far East also benefit from those trade routes and supply lines, and see China as a growing threat to these.
 
nickm said:
China is a growing military threat to US allies in the region. Apart from Taiwan, China has explicitly laid claim to territory also claimed by load of other nations in the South China Sea and created its own bases to enable it to enforce those claims.

How many of US bases pre-date the modern rise of China? How many of these bases have underpinned the long term stability of the entire region?

The US and its allies in the Far East also benefit from those trade routes and supply lines, and see China as a growing threat to these.
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Just look at the locations of the US bases vis a vis the Chinese trade routes. If you threaten China's trade routes wouldn't that be seen as an act of war? (Just like the Japanese in WW2 were forced to invade SE Asia when their oil supplies were cut off by the US.)

So its a chicken & egg scenario. But if you surround a sovereign nation with military bases, there is only one conclusion that sovereign nation can assume.

If it was the reverse... there are that many military bases surrounding the mainland US, what do you think would happen?
 
sglowrider said:
If it was the reverse... there are that many military bases surrounding the mainland US, what do you think would happen?
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You keep asking this question as if it proves some point. The US doesn't impose its bases on allied countries, they are there because they are wanted. The US would of course never allow anyone to build bases surrounding their mainland, and their geography makes that pretty easy to avoid anyway. Shocking news, the world isn't fair!
 
sglowrider said:
Just look at the locations of the US bases vis a vis the Chinese trade routes. If you threaten China's trade routes wouldn't that be seen as an act of war? (Just like the Japanese in WW2 were forced to invade SE Asia when their oil supplies were cut off by the US.)

So its a chicken & egg scenario. But if you surround a sovereign nation with military bases, there is only one conclusion that sovereign nation can assume.

If it was the reverse... there are that many military bases surrounding the mainland US, what do you think would happen?
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The US has had bases in the Far East for decades, well predating the current rise of China. Japan, South Korea alone represent half of the US overseas force and have done for decades.

Quote below is from South China Morning Post article on this subject.

“The geographic truth is that when a nation sits at the centre of the region and antagonises its neighbours on three sides, then those neighbours will react by engaging self-defence partnership activities that appear on a map to be like encirclement [from China’s perspective]"
 
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pierrethesnack said:
You keep asking this question as if it proves some point. The US doesn't impose its bases on allied countries, they are there because they are wanted.
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And they are wanted because the biggest country in the neighbourhood, is massively building up its armies, acts in myriad hostile ways to many of its neighbours, and has made claims to territories you consider yours. From the perspective of those allies, the bases aren't just wanted, they are needed!
 
Ragnar123 said:
Seems like the western world does the same mistake again with Xi, as they did with Putin. Ignore all warning signs and threats for short-term money. We need a 180 degree turn right now and start to outsource productions to other countries immediately. Xi needs to understand beforehand that he will starve, if he tries the same tactic as Putin. That's the only chance to avoid war with Xi in the near future I fear.
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The problem is that outsourcing isn't done at the government level. Companies themselves choose China for production because they are by far the best equipped to meet manufacturing demands. Hell, their whole system is built to cater to the needs of foreign companies to maximize profits - everything from labor, tax rates, security, and especially logistics are designed for this and no other developing country comes even close. So unless the likes of India, Brazil, or even Mexico get their shit together and start trying to compete with China on these fronts then we will continue to feed the beast for a long time yet.
 
icehole said:
The problem is that outsourcing isn't done at the government level. Companies themselves choose China for production because they are by far the best equipped to meet manufacturing demands. Hell, their whole system is built to cater to the needs of foreign companies to maximize profits - everything from labor, tax rates, security, and especially logistics are designed for this and no other developing country comes even close. So unless the likes of India, Brazil, or even Mexico get their shit together and start trying to compete with China on these fronts then we will continue to feed the beast for a long time yet.
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I know, but the government can steer. If there is a will, there is a way. China also had nothing at some point, so what's stopping us except short term money? Make long-term binding contracts with countries to give them surety. Give out loans so they can build the necessary infrastructure and logistics. Motivate companies to move away from China to those countries in giving them tax reductions or other beneficials.
Yes China would rant, but so far that's all they could do. Our life would get expensive for a couple of years, but in the long run we would stop feeding the tiger that wants to devour us. People always talk about the future when talking about the climate crisis, but where is the foresight in politics? Doesn't Putin show us right now what it means to feed an imperialist regime? Does anybody think Xi is any different? He feels so strong right now, that he even speaks freely about preparing for war in the future. If that's not a code red, I don't know what is. Thanks to Putin, most of the western world is now united more than ever. That gives us the opportunity to act together, otherwise we will pay for it one way or the other in the future.
 
Xi-Dada.gif

Turns out everyone is a socialist when it comes to bringing down Chinese life expectancy.
 
Some catching-up to do. Let's do this.

nickm said:
China is a growing military threat to US allies in the region. Apart from Taiwan, China has explicitly laid claim to territory also claimed by load of other nations in the South China Sea and created its own bases to enable it to enforce those claims.

How many of US bases pre-date the modern rise of China? How many of these bases have underpinned the long term stability of the entire region?

The US and its allies in the Far East also benefit from those trade routes and supply lines, and see China as a growing threat to these.
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I sure have not forgotten all of the shitstorm around the Senkaku Islands a while back either. Worst of all is that it was only the beginning of the current level of territorial disputes around China.

Over a century ago, the Royal Navy was performing the same role that the US Navy does nowadays in protecting trade routes and supply lines. The world's economy took large advantage of that stability, but that was before a guy named Wilhelm II decided to let his personal grudge against England dictate the entirety of his foreign policy. Go figure what Xi's personal problem with the US is, but it is very unhealthy for everyone, especially after he chose to ditch 40+ years of intelligent diplomacy on purpose.

nickm said:
The US has had bases in the Far East for decades, well predating the current rise of China. Japan, South Korea alone represent half of the US overseas force and have done for decades.

Quote below is from South China Morning Post article on this subject.

“The geographic truth is that when a nation sits at the centre of the region and antagonises its neighbours on three sides, then those neighbours will react by engaging self-defence partnership activities that appear on a map to be like encirclement [from China’s perspective]"
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There you go. The US have never imposed anything on anyone when it comes to those military bases; it's those countries themselves who feel the heat and thus react consequently. The reopening of 2 US bases in the Philippines is perhaps the best example about what the most recent temperature is now according to China's various neighbors themselves.

icehole said:
The problem is that outsourcing isn't done at the government level. Companies themselves choose China for production because they are by far the best equipped to meet manufacturing demands. Hell, their whole system is built to cater to the needs of foreign companies to maximize profits - everything from labor, tax rates, security, and especially logistics are designed for this and no other developing country comes even close. So unless the likes of India, Brazil, or even Mexico get their shit together and start trying to compete with China on these fronts then we will continue to feed the beast for a long time yet.
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A number of nations in SE Asia (like Vietnam and Malaysia) are picking up the pace at providing better options for industries, but I agree that India is the one to look at if the local government can pull their heads out of their asses. I also don't understand why countries in Central America don't make a better push to get some of those American contracts, especially since having job opportunities available through those contracts would mean those countries would lose less people through emigration. I'm sure the US would be happy to cut mass immigration issues by a good chunk if some people are clever enough to build production plants in those countries.
 
sglowrider said:
Ultimately it takes two hands to clap. You don't blame China to be prepared.

There have been enough Western anti-China war drums beating in the media the past few years --- and combined with the number of alliances and bases around China -- it feels like it's being boxed incl. its shipping lanes. You just only have to look at the map of the military bases surrounding its borders and its shipping lanes.

Any sovereign country, never mind the 2nd largest economy in the world needs to do what its doing now -- for its long-term survival.

I live in Asia now.

Where I am, the US used to be looked upon very favourably but its been losing that position gradually in the past few years, especially amongst the younger generation. They don't see the US as the 'good guys' anymore -- more like the bullies at the moment. It needs to concentrate on soft power rather than some iron-fisted approach.
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Where in Asia do you live? That's certainly not the sentiment in most of east Asia (ex China). Japan & Korea are even getting along much better because of the common enemy.

sglowrider said:
The US subscribes to the One China Policy.

So until it revokes that policy, it will only be seen as either provocative (and emboldening Taiwan) or trying to poke the bear and start a war.
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The US acknowledges China's position on One China, but doesn't agree with it.
 
sglowrider said:
Just look at the locations of the US bases vis a vis the Chinese trade routes. If you threaten China's trade routes wouldn't that be seen as an act of war? (Just like the Japanese in WW2 were forced to invade SE Asia when their oil supplies were cut off by the US.)

So its a chicken & egg scenario. But if you surround a sovereign nation with military bases, there is only one conclusion that sovereign nation can assume.

If it was the reverse... there are that many military bases surrounding the mainland US, what do you think would happen?
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You do realize that everyone of those US bases are agreed by those sovereign nations, guess what, many of them due to the threat posted by China.
 
I'm really not buying this story about the Chinese balloon and so called intel it was gathering. As if the US would have no detection equipment of what this was gathering, that they'd leave it up there so long before shooting it down, and why it's taken so long to work out what it was doing etc.

It just smells like further escalation to ramp up anti China rhetoric because at some point the US plans to go to war with China because of its economic challenge and need an excuse.
 
maximus419 said:
I'm really not buying this story about the Chinese balloon and so called intel it was gathering. As if the US would have no detection equipment of what this was gathering, that they'd leave it up there so long before shooting it down, and why it's taken so long to work out what it was doing etc.

It just smells like further escalation to ramp up anti China rhetoric because at some point the US plans to go to war with China because of its economic challenge and need an excuse.
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:lol:
 
pierrethesnack said:
I'm generalizing and I'm not an expert on US bases abroad, but isn't it? Maybe I'm overlooking something.
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I'm being slightly obtuse of course and the majority come with consent of the country it's based in (though there are arguments to be had about how much the local population kf certain countries can really consent to US military bases when they don't live in a democracy).

However Guantanamo and The Chagos Islands are two very clear examples of where consent has not been provided (and in the latter case, just straight up ethnic cleansing).
 
maximus419 said:
I'm really not buying this story about the Chinese balloon and so called intel it was gathering. As if the US would have no detection equipment of what this was gathering, that they'd leave it up there so long before shooting it down, and why it's taken so long to work out what it was doing etc.

It just smells like further escalation to ramp up anti China rhetoric because at some point the US plans to go to war with China because of its economic challenge and need an excuse.
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Serously, have you even seen CCP's rhethoric against everyone and everything that criticizes China or that just talks to Taiwan under the sun? The CCP just bitched and moaned against Guatemala because that country just received the Taiwanese president and reiterated their recognition of Taiwan.

Whatever anti-China rhethoric out there is mostly backlash to Xi's so-called Wolf Warrior foreign policy in the last decade or so. If you read enough about the history of Europe during the 1890-1914 period, you will find out that Germany under the rule of quite a (suspectedly) mentally ill person used the same approach on foreign policy... to the point of alienating Germany away from most world powers of the day.
 
RedDevilQuebecois said:
Serously, have you even seen CCP's rhethoric against everyone and everything that criticizes China or that just talks to Taiwan under the sun? The CCP just bitched and moaned against Guatemala because that country just received the Taiwanese president and reiterated their recognition of Taiwan.

Whatever anti-China rhethoric out there is mostly backlash to Xi's so-called Wolf Warrior foreign policy in the last decade or so. If you read enough about the history of Europe during the 1890-1914 period, you will find out that Germany under the rule of quite a (suspectedly) mentally ill person used the same approach on foreign policy... to the point of alienating Germany away from most world powers of the day.
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I'm not saying that China are not something to be concerned with, however I also dont trust the US either. The propaganda exists on both sides but as we're in the west we tend to side with our own. However don't for one minute think that the US wouldn't make stuff up because they too would love to go to war with China given the chance.

They are a major threat to the US as the main super power and if China have time to build up their military, they may just have too much even for the US so going early suits them. Either way they need an excuse and I think we are being readied into a hot war between the two within the next 2 years.
 
maximus419 said:
I'm not saying that China are not something to be concerned with, however I also dont trust the US either. The propaganda exists on both sides but as we're in the west we tend to side with our own. However don't for one minute think that the US wouldn't make stuff up because they too would love to go to war with China given the chance.

They are a major threat to the US as the main super power and if China have time to build up their military, they may just have too much even for the US so going early suits them. Either way they need an excuse and I think we are being readied into a hot war between the two within the next 2 years.
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China are a substantial nuclear power. Not even the stupidest American will be actively looking for an excuse to have a 'hot war' with them.
 
maximus419 said:
I'm not saying that China are not something to be concerned with, however I also dont trust the US either. The propaganda exists on both sides but as we're in the west we tend to side with our own. However don't for one minute think that the US wouldn't make stuff up because they too would love to go to war with China given the chance.

They are a major threat to the US as the main super power and if China have time to build up their military, they may just have too much even for the US so going early suits them. Either way they need an excuse and I think we are being readied into a hot war between the two within the next 2 years.
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Elaborate a bit on this ‘hot war.’ Where would it take place & what would the US’s goals be?
 
maximus419 said:
I'm not saying that China are not something to be concerned with, however I also dont trust the US either. The propaganda exists on both sides but as we're in the west we tend to side with our own. However don't for one minute think that the US wouldn't make stuff up because they too would love to go to war with China given the chance.

They are a major threat to the US as the main super power and if China have time to build up their military, they may just have too much even for the US so going early suits them. Either way they need an excuse and I think we are being readied into a hot war between the two within the next 2 years.
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AFAIK, it's not the US that has a recent history of bullying all of their neighbors into acquiescing into its demands and preferences. This is why the Philippines signed a deal to reopen US military bases.



No one sane would want a hot war. Mark Milley came out again yesterday to tell people to tone down some parts of the anti-China rhetoric. However, I and any others personally question Xi's own sanity in the same vein that historians still debate Wilhelm II's sanity in the lead-up to WW1. Xi remains the one who is undoing nearly 4 decades of intelligent diplomacy to go according to his own whims.
 
maximus419 said:
I'm really not buying this story about the Chinese balloon and so called intel it was gathering. As if the US would have no detection equipment of what this was gathering, that they'd leave it up there so long before shooting it down, and why it's taken so long to work out what it was doing etc.

It just smells like further escalation to ramp up anti China rhetoric because at some point the US plans to go to war with China because of its economic challenge and need an excuse.
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If the US wanted to go to war with China, they merely have to formally recognize Taiwan, perhaps throw in asking Japan to build a naval base on Senkaku Island for good measure.

China are the ones looking for an excuse to invade Taiwan.
 


Just a matter of time until Xi decides to invade and steal the semiconductor technology.
 
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