Cold War against China?

[AfonsoAlves]

Bringing Tesla on the subsidies vs competition conversation is very funny, really. US has spent billions in subsidies in EV in US also and it started way sooner on this subsidies to have a leg ahead.

What are you talking about?

Tesla got a low interest cash loan by a state level funding mechanism and 1.7 Billion USD worth of buyer tax credits.

A drop in the ocean to the 400+ Billion USD China has given.

BYD gets billions of cold hard cash as subsidies... per year.

 

[4bars]

What are you talking about?

Tesla got a low interest cash loan by a state level funding mechanism and 1.7 Billion USD worth of buyer tax credits.

A drop in the ocean to the 400+ Billion USD China has given.

BYD gets billions of cold hard cash as subsidies... per year.

EVs through subsidies on helps to buy loans and also subsidies on chargers received dozens of billions.

I guess for you is a matter of quantities or directly or directly. Maybe we should see per inhabitant then? So US bad bad bad but China more bad?

There is always an excuse. US had been subsidizing the EV industry since much sooner than China (and other countries which sells the the cars). But now is time to cry "not fair" from China.

Sure, is not fair, but as my initial statement that is THE WHOLE POINT I WAS MAKING, is all nice and dandy when US does it first but is not nice and dandy when China does the same and double downs. I hope when I call out US doesn't strike that I think China is a great country. Far from it. My interactions are ALWAYS about the hypocresy of double morals

 

[AfonsoAlves]

EVs through subsidies on helps to buy loans and also subsidies on chargers received dozens of billions.

I guess for you is a matter of quantities or directly or directly. Maybe we should see per inhabitant then? So US bad bad bad but China more bad?

There is always an excuse. US had been subsidizing the EV industry since much sooner than China (and other countries which sells the the cars). But now is time to cry "not fair" from China.

Sure, is not fair, but as my initial statement that is THE WHOLE POINT I WAS MAKING, is all nice and dandy when US does it first but is not nice and dandy when China does the same and double downs. I hope when I call out US doesn't strike that I think China is a great country. Far from it. My interactions are ALWAYS about the hypocresy of double morals

This has nothing to do with morality and hypocrisy.

You can't tell the difference between giving subsidies for encouragement of adoption domestically versus subsidies for undercutting the market?

The first one is fine. The second one is not - and usually goes to various trading courts and WTO where it is frowned upon to downright banned practice.

Let's put it this way.

UBS did a research piece and found a Tesla Series 3 is around 15-20% more expensive than a BYD Dolphin EV to produce. So far so good.
The Dolphin EV retails at an 80% reduction compared to the Tesla 3 (!!!)

So what's happening here is that the Chinese government is enabling BYD to sell at a catastrophic loss in order to completely dominate the market and price competitors out of business through massive subsidies on the losses. This practice is called dumping and according to the WTO rules on free trade, completely illegal.

https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/whatis_e/tif_e/agrm8_e.htm

It's not that US are being hypocrites, it's that China is breaking WTO rules and USA is not, with their subsidies. It's that simple.

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_24_5589

There's currently a court battle between China and the EU around dumping. It isn't the first time China has done this and the West broadly speaking have ignored most of them.

https://policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/n...dumped-imports-erythritol-china-2025-01-16_en

https://trade.ec.europa.eu/access-t...ware-exporters-evading-eu-anti-dumping-duties

https://unescap.org/sites/default/d8files/6 Mai.pdf

EU have been fighting Chinese Dumping for 3 decades now.

Like how Steel was being sold at 42% of cost into the EU markets.

 

[Beans]

Hear hear

 

[4bars]

This has nothing to do with morality and hypocrisy.

You can't tell the difference between giving subsidies for encouragement of adoption domestically versus subsidies for undercutting the market?

The first one is fine. The second one is not - and usually goes to various trading courts and WTO where it is frowned upon to downright banned practice.

Let's put it this way.

UBS did a research piece and found a Tesla Series 3 is around 15-20% more expensive than a BYD Dolphin EV to produce. So far so good.
The Dolphin EV retails at an 80% reduction compared to the Tesla 3 (!!!)

So what's happening here is that the Chinese government is enabling BYD to sell at a catastrophic loss in order to completely dominate the market and price competitors out of business through massive subsidies on the losses. This practice is called dumping and according to the WTO rules on free trade, completely illegal.

https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/whatis_e/tif_e/agrm8_e.htm

It's not that US are being hypocrites, it's that China is breaking WTO rules and USA is not, with their subsidies. It's that simple.

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_24_5589

There's currently a court battle between China and the EU around dumping. It isn't the first time China has done this and the West broadly speaking have ignored most of them.

https://policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/n...dumped-imports-erythritol-china-2025-01-16_en

https://trade.ec.europa.eu/access-t...ware-exporters-evading-eu-anti-dumping-duties

https://unescap.org/sites/default/d8files/6 Mai.pdf

EU have been fighting Chinese Dumping for 3 decades now.

Like how Steel was being sold at 42% of cost into the EU markets.

Before I start the reply, I like these discussions because it forces me to learn. So I appreciate you. I really appreciate you as a poster because you always participate in good faith and manners

Now, as Bill Burr said once (paraphrasing): "I don't like fact checking in internet because you search till you find "Iamright.com" and vomit the facts that suits your already decided position"

And he is right, I have a big dislike for US double standards of US vs anyone. In this case compared to China because is the topic of this discussion. As I said many times already this dislike for US morality must not be confused with an admiration for China, because is quite the opposite. And in a confrontation, I definitely would chose US every single day.

Now my counterfacts

You are tallking about this:

"UBS did a research piece and found a Tesla Series 3 is around 15-20% more expensive than a BYD Dolphin EV to produce. So far so good.

You didn't put any link so I tried to find it

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-66737524 that says:

"The BYD Seal has a 15% advantage over Tesla's Chinese-made base Model 3 sedan," according to a UBS report.

So is not the Dolphin but the seal

Now lets go check the price of a tesla in china and a BYD seal in China (no tariffs) in 2024

Tesla model 3: 231900 yuan
BYD seal: 179800 yuan

Roughly 25% cheaper. Roughly a case of dumping or at least so blatantly as said by you. Also, the 15% is an UBS estimation. Could be less, could be more. The funny thing is that Tesla paid till 2023 15% corporate taxes while 25%

Another model compared with the BYD is the ID.3

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/12/business/byd-china-electric-vehicle.html

The Swiss bank UBS found last year that a BYD Seal electric hatchback sedan cost 35 percent less to make than a slightly smaller Volkswagen ID.3 of similar quality made in Europe. The savings came only partly from the cheaper lithium iron phosphate batteries.

Now lets go check the price of a ID.3 in china and a BYD seal in China (no tariffs) in 2024

ID.3: 195000yuan
BYD seal: 179800 yuan

5%ish?

Again, hardly a case of dumping and BYD is making more margin than volkswagen


We can go back and forth on the subsidies. If direct or indirect. if taxes or no taxes help (I remaind you that Tesla enjoyed better corporate taxes than BYD).

The same NYT article said that BYD received 2.6 billions from the chinese government from 2008 to 2022. You don't believe them? Completely fair and I don't trust them much for that matter. but 400 billions (probably you refer to the whole EV segment) is far from this number and I can find other numbers for just Tesla in the billions to. It is very hard to find the particular numbers. Specially with China


But if we base the claims on 15% cheaper on costs and 80% cheaper on price. It doesn't sustain at all. I just used your cost claim and the actual prices on China

If those numbers are accurate, doesn't justify a 100% tariff in any case

P.S.: Musk is lobbying for the 100% tariffs in US while bringing EU to courts for the EU tariffs in his chinese manufactured Teslas

That is the morality. And yes, everyone has its own distinct morality

And hear hear

 

[Revan]

I'm not so sure. The big shift here isn’t just about who’s making the hardware—it’s about how much of it we even need. If training costs drop and GPU demand shrinks, even a powerhouse like Nvidia could feel the impact. The open-source angle cuts both ways: if efficiency gains open up AI development, the value of cutting-edge hardware diminishes. Why shell out for Nvidia’s top-tier chips if smaller, cheaper models get the job done? Also NVIDIA's advantage in AI inference might not be as significant as in model training, with competitors like Groq, AMD, and Huawei offering alternatives. for example look at this:



Anyways, it isn’t just about who has the best GPU today. The real question is whether the economics of AI will still justify Nvidia’s premium pricing—and that’s far from a sure thing.

P.S. feck Sam Altman and his "Open"AI

Huawei is ultimately the main competitor of Nvidia, and eventually it will reach Nvidia’s performance. Furthermore, because they do everything in house, they are not dependent on TSMC. However, right now, they are still quite behind. The latest Ascent GPUs are not better than A100, so 2 generations behind B100. Huawei also does not have a cuda equivalent and is essentially monkey patching cuda (and PyTorch) to work with Ascent.

Do not get me wrong, it is impressive what Huawei has done. Not AMD, not Intel, not Google have managed to make something as good as it (Google has but they cannot scale TPUs to sell). But still, companies, including Chinese ones want Nvidia.

About models not needing as many GPUs, that is not true. DeepSeek mentions 5 millions in spending, but that is just for the final model. For all we know they could have spent another 50m to reach there. Furthermore, the biggest advancements in AI have been coming by increasing compute, so despite that models are getting more efficient, you still need more compute to be competitive.

 

[Suedesi]

Before I start the reply, I like these discussions because it forces me to learn. So I appreciate you. I really appreciate you as a poster because you always participate in good faith and manners

Now, as Bill Burr said once (paraphrasing): "I don't like fact checking in internet because you search till you find "Iamright.com" and vomit the facts that suits your already decided position"

And he is right, I have a big dislike for US double standards of US vs anyone. In this case compared to China because is the topic of this discussion. As I said many times already this dislike for US morality must not be confused with an admiration for China, because is quite the opposite. And in a confrontation, I definitely would chose US every single day.

This is tangent to your reply, and in no way a direct attack, but I find it funny how people instantly get awkward and defensive the moment they have to say something positive about China—like they have to rush in and qualify that China is just as bad, or worse, than the entire West.

China hasn’t spent the 21st century launching wars that kill millions. It doesn’t have 800+ military bases circling the globe, crushing anyone who steps out of line. It’s not slapping starvation sanctions on countries that don’t fall in line. It didn’t spend 15 months setting the Middle East on fire or backing a genocide broadcasted live for the whole world to see. And it sure as hell hasn’t spent the last three years playing nuclear chicken with another superpower, keeping the entire planet on edge.

Nope—that’s all the US(AID) empire's doing

 

[4bars]

This is tangent to your reply, and in no way a direct attack, but I find it funny how people instantly get awkward and defensive the moment they have to say something positive about China—like they have to rush in and qualify that China is just as bad, or worse, than the entire West.

China hasn’t spent the 21st century launching wars that kill millions. It doesn’t have 800+ military bases circling the globe, crushing anyone who steps out of line. It’s not slapping starvation sanctions on countries that don’t fall in line. It didn’t spend 15 months setting the Middle East on fire or backing a genocide broadcasted live for the whole world to see. And it sure as hell hasn’t spent the last three years playing nuclear chicken with another superpower, keeping the entire planet on edge.

Nope—that’s all the US(AID) empire's doing

It is not fair, because @AfonsoAlves always discuss with links and informative arguments. We are here to learn and I learnt heaps with him in many topics because he knows more than me in general. And I appreciate him. Also, it helps me to learn by myself in multiple topics to try to be right, because I love too much to be right.

It was a genuine statement not awkward or defensive

 

[berbatrick]

This is tangent to your reply, and in no way a direct attack, but I find it funny how people instantly get awkward and defensive the moment they have to say something positive about China—like they have to rush in and qualify that China is just as bad, or worse, than the entire West.

China hasn’t spent the 21st century launching wars that kill millions. It doesn’t have 800+ military bases circling the globe, crushing anyone who steps out of line. It’s not slapping starvation sanctions on countries that don’t fall in line. It didn’t spend 15 months setting the Middle East on fire or backing a genocide broadcasted live for the whole world to see. And it sure as hell hasn’t spent the last three years playing nuclear chicken with another superpower, keeping the entire planet on edge.

Nope—that’s all the US(AID) empire's doing

I think China is the only state taking global warming with the seriousness it deserves, but I don't think they're doing enough, or they're doing this for altruistic reasons.

They are doing what someone needs to do - government-subsidised mass production of renewable energy assets, made cheaper by continuous technological improvement, IP theft, and massive subsidy. I think that is all good, including the theft, and the anti-competitive subsidy. On similar lines they've created, by far, the largest EV manufacturing system in the world. This is a common human/ecological problem and quibbling about fecking IP and trade deficits is insane at this time. Other countries should have taken advantage of the bounty they have created, instead of collectively dooming us further.

At the same time, they are building coal plants and increasing gas imports. Which shows that their priority here is not reducing emissions. It is technological advantage. They saw the global-warming-related sociopathy of the US and the paralysis of Europe, found a massive gap in the market, and stepped in, and established themselves as leaders. While continuing to pump out CO2. What they are doing is necessary, but not sufficient. While all other countries are failing on one or both of those too.

That's why I caveat my praise for China.

About foreign policy - they have managed to get into border spats with almost all their neighbours. I absolutely agree that there is no comparison with the US> Some of the China-hawkishness in this thread is hilarious, and impossible to parody, especially given that the same people support the western rules-based order. But, if China emerges stronger and the US fades, as I hope, they might become expansionist too.

 

[4bars]

. But, if China emerges stronger and the US fades, as I hope, they might become expansionist too.

Yes, I have 0 doubts. If China would hold the unopposed power that US enjoys, Taiwan would be long absorbed and their supremacy on the China sea would be undisputed. Then they would search any casus belly to expand their borders for whichever reasons. Historical, "security", resources, etc...

I don't have China in any high regards, actually is worse in "my accounting books" in many areas than the west. But the west with the US at front, because of its dominance is the big evil that rules the world, but I have 0 doubts that Russia or China would behave the same or worse.

I just don't like the moral superiority of the west over China. They are 2 faces of the same coin

 

[The United]

I think China is the only state taking global warming with the seriousness it deserves, but I don't think they're doing enough, or they're doing this for altruistic reasons.

They are doing what someone needs to do - government-subsidised mass production of renewable energy assets, made cheaper by continuous technological improvement, IP theft, and massive subsidy. I think that is all good, including the theft, and the anti-competitive subsidy. On similar lines they've created, by far, the largest EV manufacturing system in the world. This is a common human/ecological problem and quibbling about fecking IP and trade deficits is insane at this time. Other countries should have taken advantage of the bounty they have created, instead of collectively dooming us further.

At the same time, they are building coal plants and increasing gas imports. Which shows that their priority here is not reducing emissions. It is technological advantage. They saw the global-warming-related sociopathy of the US and the paralysis of Europe, found a massive gap in the market, and stepped in, and established themselves as leaders. While continuing to pump out CO2. What they are doing is necessary, but not sufficient. While all other countries are failing on one or both of those too.

That's why I caveat my praise for China.

About foreign policy - they have managed to get into border spats with almost all their neighbours. I absolutely agree that there is no comparison with the US> Some of the China-hawkishness in this thread is hilarious, and impossible to parody, especially given that the same people support the western rules-based order. But, if China emerges stronger and the US fades, as I hope, they might become expansionist too.

Of course, they will, and in some ways, they already are. They've been doing this to my country for a while—about one-fifth of it is already under the control of groups they arm, support, and control while keeping "we like peaceful solutions" face in the public.

 

[VorZakone]

China is infiltrating Taiwan’s armed forces

Last year Taiwan’s courts prosecuted 64 people for spying for China. Two-thirds were current or retired military personnel. Prosecutions have jumped fourfold in the past four years, according to Taiwan’s National Security Bureau. Yet China’s infiltration is still evolving in both scope and tactics.

There have been 1,706 instances of Chinese intelligence trying to recruit Taiwanese officers and soldiers online between January 2022 and June 2024, says one government report, creating an “unprecedented challenge” for Taiwan’s armed forces.

https://www.economist.com/asia/2025/02/06/china-is-infiltrating-taiwans-armed-forces

 

[AfonsoAlves]

Per Satellite imagery:

US for the past 3 months has been building bases on previously deserted Pacific Islands without much fanfare:

 

[VorZakone]

So China did drills near Australia in international waters but allegedly didn't follow best practices for notifying others. A commercial pilot alerted Australia.

Australia learned about Chinese live-fire naval drills off the country’s coast that forced dozens of flights to be diverted via an alert from a commercial pilot, authorities said on Monday.

The first notice of the Chinese drills in the Tasman Sea came in a radio transmission on an emergency frequency monitored by a Virgin Australia passenger jet on Friday, according to Australian officials. The Virgin pilot relayed the information to Australian aviation authorities, who then issued a “hazard alert” via air traffic control, Airservices Australia CEO Rob Sharp told a parliamentary hearing.

Though the drills were held in international waters, Beijing could have given Australia and New Zealand a heads-up much sooner in the interests of safety, naval experts said.

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/02/25/...-australia-new-zealand-intl-hnk-ml/index.html

 

[AfonsoAlves]

So China did drills near Australia in international waters but allegedly didn't follow best practices for notifying others. A commercial pilot alerted Australia.


https://edition.cnn.com/2025/02/25/...-australia-new-zealand-intl-hnk-ml/index.html

I don't actually attribute this to malice but just lack of procedure process in PLAN. There's been cases where they do littoral exercises in Chinese waters and forgot to inform local civilian ports or ships.

 

[VorZakone]

 

[VorZakone]

 

[VorZakone]

Interesting article.

How a CIA informant stopped Taiwan from developing nuclear weapons

Chang exposed Taiwan’s secret nuclear program to the United States, its closest ally, passing intelligence that ultimately led the US to pressure Taiwan into shutting down the program – which proliferation experts say was near completion. While critics say he betrayed his homeland and undermined Taipei’s ability to deter a possible Chinese invasion, Chang told CNN in a rare interview he still believes he made the right call.

“I decided to provide information to the CIA because I think it was good for the people of Taiwan,” said the 81-year-old. “Yes, there was political struggle between China and Taiwan, but developing any kind of deadly weapon was nonsense to me.”

Some Taiwanese have criticized Chang, saying he overstepped by deciding unilaterally that the island is better off without a nuclear deterrent.

“I believe he is a traitor,” said Alexander Huang, an associate professor in strategic studies at Tamkang University, because the weapons “would be seen as a useful tool in bargaining for a better diplomatic result” with Beijing.

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/01/...ar-weapons-chang-hsien-yi-intl-hnk/index.html

 

[africanspur]

China says it is ready for 'any type of war' with US

China has warned the US it is ready to fight "any type" of war after hitting back against President Donald Trump's mounting trade tariffs.

The world's top two economies have edged closer to a trade war after Trump slapped more tariffs on all Chinese goods. China quickly retaliated imposing 10-15% tariffs on US farm products.

"If war is what the US wants, be it a tariff war, a trade war or any other type of war, we're ready to fight till the end," China's embassy said on X, reposting a line from a government statement on Tuesday.

It is some of the strongest rhetoric so far from China since Trump became president and comes as leaders gathered in Beijing for the annual National People's Congress.


Excellent.

 

[VorZakone]

China will increase its defense budget 7.2% this year

China said Wednesday it will increase its defense budget 7.2% this year, as it continues its campaign to build a larger, more modern military to assert its territorial claims and challenge the U.S. defense lead in Asia.

The boost is the same percentage as last year, far below the double-digit percentage increases of previous years and reflecting an overall slowdown in the economy. The nation’s leaders have set a target of around 5% growth for this year.

https://apnews.com/article/china-defense-budget-taiwan-4ac7cbdc7d5b889732cd55916ff7eb36

 

[Ekkie Thump]

A global arms race. Great.

 

[Moston Red]

China says it is ready for 'any type of war' with US

China has warned the US it is ready to fight "any type" of war after hitting back against President Donald Trump's mounting trade tariffs.

The world's top two economies have edged closer to a trade war after Trump slapped more tariffs on all Chinese goods. China quickly retaliated imposing 10-15% tariffs on US farm products.

"If war is what the US wants, be it a tariff war, a trade war or any other type of war, we're ready to fight till the end," China's embassy said on X, reposting a line from a government statement on Tuesday.

It is some of the strongest rhetoric so far from China since Trump became president and comes as leaders gathered in Beijing for the annual National People's Congress.


Excellent.

I’d normally be worried with a statement like this from China, but with the new US administration I welcome this rhetoric from China.

 

[RoyH1]

Taiwan is so f*cked. Mango Mussolini will not step for them with his isolationist views. His abandonment of leadership of the so called "free world" is going to end up with every big country building up their arms industry and looking at their alliance options.

 

[Cassidy]

Taiwan is so f*cked. Mango Mussolini will not step for them with his isolationist views. His abandonment of leadership of the so called "free world" is going to end up with every big country building up their arms industry and looking at their alliance options.

Whilst the US and China dominate with AI. The whole thing with China has to be seen in the context of wanting to keep a lead and control over the AI arms race which I believe everyone is underestimating right now. We are alot closer to this having serious impact on military/intelligence and even everyday life than people realise. And right now only US and China are the major players with Europe massively behind

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/04/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-ben-buchanan.html

 

[Zehner]

A global arms race. Great.

Humanity is so dumb. All the resources and workforce which will now go into producing goods that provide no value to society whatsoever.