Champions League Round of 16 (15th Feb - 16th Mar)

Djemba-Djemba said:
Do you not understand words?

I didn't say it was fixed or any bribes were involved.

I just said we get much harder FA Cup draws than Chelsea especially in the early rounds. Which is true.
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And I'm just saying it's statistical nonsense.

For every year they've had an easy draw, you can find a year where United had an easy draw.
 
cyberman said:
I go the other way. Atletico like to sit back and not press high which plays into our hands and the 4-2-2-2 is meant to protect against counters anyway. Any sort of improvement should see us as favourites, especially when they can’t play for the away goal
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Atletco are not the rabid dogs they were 5 years ago, yet having them like a Burnley is a bit too far: they still have plenty of quality upfront and are as solid as you can get.
 
Dancfc said:
Tbf you got two easy draws aswell going by your own logic.
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I'm just joking around mate hahaha Im not into conspiracy theories. Actually Chelsea used to get Barca quite a lot if I remember correctly.

It's just that the FA Cup draw and now Lille it's material to laugh about :lol: . Somehow the only english team that didn't end up 1st of the group end up with the easiest draw, twice.
 
Has the expected shithousery (xS) gone up or down following the redraw
 
It’s a better draw. They have two more points than us in La Liga from the same number of games.

I’m sure we can discuss tactics but I’d rather not face a team with Messi, Mbappe and Neymar thanks.
 
Just gonna leave this here... this was 3h before the draw. :wenger:

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Bayern predicting not the first draw, but the opponent from the redraw? Interesting. :D
 
Dan_F said:
It’s a better draw. They have two more points than us in La Liga from the same number of games.

I’m sure we can discuss tactics but I’d rather not face a team with Messi, Mbappe and Neymar thanks.
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Ya same. Atletico will be pain in the ass and will be very tough to get past but don't want to face Messi-Mbappe-Neymar and host of other PSG superstars in R16 at least.
 
dbs235 said:
PSG always seem to get hard draws. Not that anyone will have much sympathy for them.
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Probably because they finish second in their groups for some reason, and can't face easier teams from their leagues like Lille, etc., so they have to play winners from other group who are generally top teams from La Liga, PL or Serie A.
 
Is there any logical explanation why teams can't face teams from their own country? This has been bothering me the entire day, someone please give me decent argument.
 
RedDevilRoshi said:
The actual dates are still tbc but it will be during that week.
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Or the following week .... all the matches are currently showing as being in 15 Feb and 8 March pending the announcement of the actual dates. But where they get announced first, I don't know.
 
Amar__ said:
Is there any logical explanation why teams can't face teams from their own country? This has been bothering me the entire day, someone please give me decent argument.
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Probably to try minimise the amount of games that teams play against teams from their own country, as we see that domestically anyway and we want to see different teams compete against eachother. That's the best I can do.
 
Ok so, bad news is we face City. We probably are eliminated.

Good news is last time we faced City in a KO round we sent them home:devil::devil::devil:
 
Amar__ said:
Is there any logical explanation why teams can't face teams from their own country? This has been bothering me the entire day, someone please give me decent argument.
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Just makes it a bit more interesting teams from different countries playing each other, no?
 
dbs235 said:
Probably to try minimise the amount of games that teams play against teams from their own country, as we see that domestically anyway and we want to see different teams compete against eachother. That's the best I can do.
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Offside said:
Just makes it a bit more interesting teams from different countries playing each other, no?
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And what when they face each other in quarter or semifinals? I would actually watch Chelsea vs City in 1/8 finals(which means I could watch some other game if I am fed up from PL) than in CL final.
 
Horrible draw. Would have preferred PSG albeit boring.

Well, atleast there is no Mbappe or Neymar to run rings around Maguire and Co. Good thing is they wont press us high and they don't have the pace to run behind us. We can get them over 2 legs with no away goals.

180 + mins of horrible, cheating, dramatic, "surround the ref" opera coming up, though.
 
Botim said:
And I'm just saying it's statistical nonsense.

For every year they've had an easy draw, you can find a year where United had an easy draw.
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Not necessarily. That's like saying if you throw a fair coin 100 times then 50 of them will be heads.

Obviously as the number of throws increases the number of heads throw tends to 1 in every 2. But it's plausible that on events as infrequent as yearly, over a say 10 year period that one team could have ended up with a few easier draws.
 
Amar__ said:
And what when they face each other in quarter or semifinals? I would actually watch Chelsea vs City in 1/8 finals(which means I could watch some other game if I am fed up from PL) than in CL final.
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Well yeah they can't stop them facing off all together, but it gives chance for a couple of teams from each country to get knocked out first before they have the chance to meet eachother.
 
This is good for City to face a historic team with pedigree. They need it to grow as a club ;)
 
I dont see any point in keeping same county teams apart once you get to the knock-out stages. I'd rather there was less chance of 3 or 4 semi-finalists all being from the same country.
 
Siorac said:
Statistically, it was a 6% chance. So not impossible.
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Unless I'm visualizing probability incorrectly the answer is closer to a 1.56% chance of drawing the same team twice in a row. So pretty lucky
 
I was very happy with Benfica :(. And as the draw was, we should have kept Benfica. We go from night to day.
Great game but obviously I would have preferred it later, in the quarterfinals or semi-finals.
I like him but I would like to see some good boos from Bernabéu to Ramos, like a kind of slap on the wrist
 
carvajal said:
I was very happy with Benfica :(. And as the draw was, we should have kept Benfica. We go from night to day.
Great game but obviously I would have preferred it later, in the quarterfinals or semi-finals.
I like him but I would like to see some good boos from Bernabéu to Ramos, like a kind of slap on the wrist
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Fecking Bernabeu would probably boo Di Stefano's ghost.
 
Botim said:
And I'm just saying it's statistical nonsense.

For every year they've had an easy draw, you can find a year where United had an easy draw.
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I decided to check. Looking up the 3rd round FA Cup draws going all the way back to the beginning of the Abramovich era (2003-04), we have the following draws, and tiers of opposition:

2021-2022
Chelsea: Chesterfield (5th tier)
United: Aston Villa (1st tier)

2020-21
Chelsea: Morecambe (4th)
United: Watford (2nd)

2019-20
Chelsea: Nottingham Forest (2nd)
United: Wolves (1st)

2018-19
Chelsea: Nottingham Forest (2nd)
United: Reading (2nd)

2017-18
Chelsea: Norwich (2nd)
United: Derby (2nd)

2016-17
Chelsea: Peterborough (3rd)
United: Reading (2nd)

2015-16
Chelsea: Scunthorpe (3rd)
United: Sheffield Utd (3rd)

2014-15
Chelsea: Watford (2nd)
United: Yeovil (3rd)

2013-14
Chelsea: Derby (2nd)
United: Swansea (1st)

2012-13
Chelsea: Southampton (1st)
United: West Ham (1st)

2011-12
Chelsea: Portsmouth (2nd)
United: Man City (1st)

2010-11
Chelsea: Ipswich (2nd)
United: Liverpool (1st)

2009-10
Chelsea: Watford (2nd)
United: Leeds (3rd)

2008-09
Chelsea: Southend Utd (3rd)
United: Southampton (2nd)

2007-08
Chelsea: QPR (2nd)
United: Villa (1st)

2006-07
Chelsea: Macclesfield (4th)
United: Villa (1st)

2005-06
Chelsea: Huddersfield (3rd)
United: Burton Albion (9th)

2004-05
Chelsea: Scunthorpe (4th)
United: Exeter (6th)

2003-04
Chelsea: Watford (2nd)
United: Villa (1st)

In these nineteen seasons, United drew a higher-ranked opponent than Chelsea eleven times. Chelsea drew a higher-ranked opponent than United four times. The two teams drew an opponent from the same tier four times. The times Chelsea drew a higher-ranked opponent, it was usually still 2nd tier or lower.

In these nineteen seasons, United drew an opponent from the Premier League ten times. Chelsea drew a PL opponent once. United have drawn both Liverpool and Manchester City in that time while the one PL team that Chelsea drew was... Southampton, in a season when Southampton finished 14th in the league with a -11 GD and 9 wins out of 38.

The difference in draw luck between United and Chelsea is dramatically skewed in their favor. It's frankly obscene how much luckier they've been; or, rather, how ridiculously unlucky United have been to draw a PL opponent more than half of these nineteen seasons. Including their two biggest rivals. It's unheard-of. It's got to be in the neighborhood of one in a thousand or something. It's so insanely improbable that it beggars belief. Meanwhile, Chelsea drawing PL opposition just once in nineteen years is highly improbable as well, though not quite the mindblowing statistical anomaly as drawing a PL team ten times out of nineteen. Skimming the data, it looks like the average is about 4-5 times out of 19.
 
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Neither draw was bad for us (because we missed PSG). Not seen them mess it up like that before.

Inter should be manageable enough.
 
carvajal said:
I was very happy with Benfica :(. And as the draw was, we should have kept Benfica. We go from night to day.
Great game but obviously I would have preferred it later, in the quarterfinals or semi-finals.
I like him but I would like to see some good boos from Bernabéu to Ramos, like a kind of slap on the wrist
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Imagine if he scores one of his famous (last minute) headers to knock you guys out.
 
Honestly, I think I would have preferred PSG. I fecking hate Atletico and their style of play, and then add in their antics to all that. Garbage draw.
 
When do they decide exactly which matches take place on which dates? I wanna check if I’m working for the games or not!
 
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