One of the most consistent themes coming out of all of this is the accusation--at least from Erdogan's critics on social media--that the coup attempt was an inside job, a false-flag operation designed to justify a crackdown on opposition.
I'm not one to rule anything out categorically, but this idea frankly sounds crazy to me, even given the standards of Mr. Erdogan's tumultuous rule. The reason I feel this way is because of the
Ergenekon trials, the series of investigations which began as an examination into alleged crimes by the state against its citizens and somehow ended up getting transformed into--you guessed it--a trial of supposed coup-plotters. Thousands of people were detained for years without ever going to trial, and the defendants were not only military officers (there were many of them) but also university professors, journalists, NGO types, and even university rectors who didn't allow headscarves on their campuses.
When you have something like Ergenekon--which for years was taken seriously by journalists and US-based Turkey experts--why do you need an actual false-flag operation? I think that if Erdogan and his people really wanted to create a crisis in Turkey and then use it as an excuse to crack down on politics, they wouldn't need to create an actual coup in which people are shooting at each other and dying. Something like that, after all, would have the potential to spin out of control. Instead, all Erdogan would have to do is publicly state that there was a coup plot against him and that the security forces were taking care of it. This is what happened with Ergenekon, and it went on so gradually that--at least internationally-- nobody even started calling it a witch-hunt until it was almost over.
So, the idea that Erdogan would risk everything by staging a coup just doesn't make sense to me, although I do understand why people who don't like Erdogan would prefer to believe this. For years, I think a lot of people in Turkey--again, I'm talking about Erdogan's critics here--have been secretly hoping that a coup would take him out. When this failed to happen yesterday, the reaction on social media was incredulous. What kind of coup is this, people asked? It must have been fake, they reason, because if the military had
really wanted to overthrow Erdogan they would have.
These are the views coming from otherwise well-educated Turks who consider themselves Kemalist opponents of an Islamist politician--the profile that many of my friends from Turkey fit into. They're smart people but they've been left somewhat deranged by more than ten years of Erdogan. Like birthers in the United States who look for any reason to undermine President Obama's legitimacy, they still cannot believe that a majority--or at least a sizeable plurality--of their fellow citizens could actually support
that man!
But in attributing every development--the coup attempt, the recent attack at the Istanbul airport, the other attacks that have occurred over the last year--to Erdogan, the president's critics are assigning him a power that is well beyond even his means. Nothing, they think, happens in Turkey without Erdogan and his backers having a hand behind it.
Frankly, I think it kills Erdogan's detractors that the world media is being saturated right now with images of Turks taking to the streets in defiance of military tanks--and in support of Recep Tayyip Erdogan. After all, it was just three years ago that the Gezi kids were the darlings of the world media, fighting the good fight against their autocratic oppressor. And now, to have your heroic-victim-in-the-face-of-power status appropriated by the great unwashed of AKP voters must be particularly galling to them.
Who knows? The conspiracy theorists might be right, but I doubt it. Why take such a risk when you've already proven that you have the power to jail thousands of people on trumped-up charges without even firing a shot? Moreover, the Turkish government has been trying hard lately to bring a bit of stability to their country. Their recent deals with Israel and Russia were designed to mend fences and give Turkey a bit of breathing room. It would seem totally idiotic to throw gasoline on the fire by setting up a "fake" coup. Especially--and it's worth repeating this--when you already basically have autocratic powers.
Pennsylvania?
Now this is something that makes me suspicious, and puts just enough doubt in my mind to make me qualify some of my comments above. During his bizarre and hastily-organized press conference at Istanbul airport President Erdogan--flanked by sketchy-looking dudes in civilian clothes brandishing machine guns--already seemed to have a pretty clear idea about who was behind all of this. "
Turkey will not be run from Pennsylvania?" said Erdogan.
Pennsylvania? Huh? Some of my American friends were a little perplexed by this. What grudge could the president of Turkey possibly have against the Keystone State?
The "Pennsylvania" comment was a reference, of course, to Fethullah Gulen, someone that I've written about a few times on these pages. Gulen--a preacher with an army of supporters in business and education in Turkey--was a former ally of Erdogan who was chased out of Turkey in 1998 after a military intervention the previous year. For years, the Gulenists--who controlled a number of media outlets and businesses in Turkey--were important backers of Erdogan's AKP government. Indeed, the Gulen-controlled English-language newspaper
Today's Zaman was a reliable cheerleader for the Ergenekon trials while thousands of innocent people were rotting behind bars. This didn't stop a parade of American academics and journalists from lending their names and talents to this newspaper's masthead.
Indeed, it was the rotten international coverage of Ergenekon that spurred me to begin writing more frequently on this blog. Throughout the course of Ergenekon,
Today's Zaman uncritically re-transmitted the Turkish government's claims that all of those jailed in Ergenekon were vicious coup-plotters, and the fact that a number of Turkey specialists from the US and Europe were willing to write for this paper probably had something to do with this narrative proving so stubbornly resilient. It was only once the trials were basically over that most American commentators finally got around to viewing these trials with a more critical eye.
For reasons that are still not entirely clear, but which most likely have to do with money, the Gulenists and Erdogan's AKP developed an increasingly acrimonious relationship in recent years, culminating in
the arrest of several government ministers in December of 2013. The Gulenists, you see, were largely in charge of Turkey's national (based within the Ministry of Internal Affairs) police force by then--the common estimate was that about 90% of the cops were Gulenists.
Why do you think Erdogan relied so heavily on police back during the Gezi Park protests of June-July 2013? Don't you think he would have used the military if he'd felt he could trust them? But after the police bailed him out during the summer of Gezi, they apparently wanted a large piece of the pie--in terms of jobs and other benefits which come from having friends in high places. From what I've been able to understand, it was mainly a result of the inability of Erdogan's AKP and the still-somewhat underground Gulenists to agree upon how to divide the pie that led to their confrontation in the fall of 2013.
The AKP
responded by closing the cram-schools that had been a lucrative source of income for many of the Gulenists, and ever since that time the "parallel state" of the Gulenists has been one of Erdogan's favorite bogeymen. Just like the so-called "Ergenekon gang" was supposedly behind everything that was wrong in Turkey prior to the AKP-Gulenist split, and since the beginning of 2014 their ranks within the police force have been thinned considerably.
We'll see what happens with the investigation into the coup, but here's a spoiler alert: the blowback on this is going to be very big and very wide, and will eventually provide, in all probability, some support for those who claim that this was all staged to begin with. Why? Because I have no doubt that large numbers of people who probably had nothing to do with the coup will end up getting blamed for it.
More here -
http://blog2.jhmeyer.net/2016/07/turkish-coup-attempt-my-hot-take.html#more