I’m glad Erdogan won.
Turkey
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Fully expect this dude to either change the term limits or have his own reset to make it possible for him to be president indefinately.
Depressing map… Reminded me of the 2016 US elections.
Saw a report on the BBC yesterday and Erdogan was handing out cash outside a polling station. 
Bizarre that there's apparently no issues with doing that.
Bizarre that there's apparently no issues with doing that.It's not quite as simple as "metropolitan areas for the opposition, rural areas for the incumbent." The map on Wikipedia provides a better insight. Ankara and İstanbul, where almost 14 million votes came from, didn't exactly swing heavily in the opposition's favour.
The reality is, the opposition had two other candidates who could have narrowed the margins in inner Anatolia and won by bigger margins in the big metropolitan areas. The nationalist party within the alliance pushed hard for the mayor of Ankara or İstanbul to run, but Kılıçdaroğlu's ego appeared to get the better of him. Of those three candidates, he consistently polled behind the president, whereas Yavaş and İmamoğlu always came out ahead. It was only when Meral Akşener - head of the aforementioned nationalist party - briefly left the alliance that he relented, after which it was agreed that he would at least campaign with the two mayors, who both featured prominently at rallies. Without them, he'd probably have walked away with something closer to 40%.
Reminds me of Nigeria. Leaders weaponise poverty.
In a societies with poverty, education and wealth disparity I really wonder if democracy always works. Topic for another thread.
It’s very relevant.
it does not work. Lee Kuan Yew made an excellent point regarding this.
A society needs to have a minimum level of education and average wealth for democracy to work.
I was in Nigeria for the last election. I saw with my own eyes, poor people collecting cash to vote a particular way.
People in this thread might turn up their noses at people who sell their votes but believe me, you won’t give a feck who your next president is if you don’t know when you are your family will eat the next meal.
These guys have mastered using poverty as a weapon.
Le Kuan Yew may have some points. But on the other hand, it was used by juta leaders to justify the brutal military dictatorship in Burma for decades, even after the country was doing fine under a democratically elected government.
It just showed that if the leaders are corrupted as hell and have some means, no system would work for the general public.
Same in Lebanon unfortunately. Poverty is a very useful weapon for smart politicians...
Thought this was funny
Turkey celebrating 100 year anniversary of the proclamation of the Turkish Republic today.
A while ago I was reading Ataturk's Wikipedia page. He seemed like an impressive and forward-thinking man the way I remember it.
One of the great figures of the twentieth-century, though of course deeply flawed like all the others.
What were his deep flaws?
Primarily his militarism, authoritarianism, his ethno-nationalism, and his unwavering belief in the moral and civilizational supremacy of the West. All of which were perhaps characteristics required of a man who achieved what he did, but all of which have, I would say, left an ambiguous legacy for today’s Turkey to grapple with. As a man of his time and place, however, he was certainly extraordinary in many ways, and he’s always been one of my favorite historical figures to get to grips with.
100 years ago today since the formal abolition of the Caliphate by Atatürk, a major symbolic act to break with the past that confirmed modern Turkey’s new path. You can read the text to his speech delivered on 3rd March 1924* here - https://files.fm/f/fxsp6qn366
*(edit): rather, the speech was delivered in 1927 and concerns the events of early March 1924.
*(edit): rather, the speech was delivered in 1927 and concerns the events of early March 1924.
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He was one of the greatest statesmen of the 20th century, and certainly the greatest any muslim country has had in a long while. Flawed as feck, a bit too progressive and pro-West for the local and general muslim populations' taste at the time, but a truly larger than life character. Any other leader, and Turkey would've been absolutely fecked after the dismantlement of the Ottoman Empire following the defeat of the Central Powers after the end of WWI.
Modern Turkey owes him a feckton, and it's disappointing to see an Erdogan trying to wear his cape.
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He had to rely on all of these to "save" Turkey from the big (western) sharks roaming around, especially after WWI and internal opposition. Turkey's ambiguous modern legacy is right in line with its ambiguous geographic position and history. He had an extremely tough hand to deal with. If any muslim country managed (somewhat) to transition and survive the Western cards redistribution and the onslaught on the Middle-East after the two WWs, it's Turkey and he was the one behind it.
I'm not condoning everything that he did, but as you said, he was a man of his time (by western standards) and ahead of it (by local standards). An absolutely fascinating character.
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Agreed.
It's not Atatürks fault that Erdogan has been taking Turkey backwards for 20 years now.
I'm in a middle of a book regarding the Ottomans. What's a good book on Ataturk to transition into?
There’s a standard, well-written and comprehensive biography by Andrew Mango that is well worth reading but perhaps a little dry in that academic way.
What book are you reading right now?
The Ottomans: Khans, Caesars and Caliphs by Marc David Baer
The first book I'm reading on them that is concise and makes their complicated history easier to digest.
Ah yes that’s an excellent book.
Reuters dispatch reporting on the abolition of the caliphate:
Couple of links on the historical background of 3rd March 1924:
Ryan Gingeras podcast - A century after the end of the Ottoman Caliphate
Martin Kramer - A century without a caliph
Ryan Gingeras podcast - A century after the end of the Ottoman Caliphate
Martin Kramer - A century without a caliph
Surprised nobody has mentioned this:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68704375
Turkish local elections: Opposition stuns Erdogan with historic victory
Turkey's main opposition party has claimed big election victories in the main cities of Istanbul and Ankara.
The results are a significant blow for Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who had hoped to regain control of the cities less than a year after he claimed a third term as president.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68704375
Turkish local elections: Opposition stuns Erdogan with historic victory
Turkey's main opposition party has claimed big election victories in the main cities of Istanbul and Ankara.
The results are a significant blow for Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who had hoped to regain control of the cities less than a year after he claimed a third term as president.
I mean Turkey's interest rate is now at a staggering 50%. Granted I'm neglecting to mention the myriad of complex issues which also likely contributed to this upset, but Erdogan's strategy of Quasi-Ottoman imperial vibes and religious nationalism can only sustain him so much when the entire country is rapidly spiralling economic clusterfeck.
Perhaps he needs to stage another coup or start another military adventure in Rojava (to protect Turks and Turkish speaking peoples from those pesky Kurds) to give him another bump.
It’s certainly dramatic on the face of it, but I’d imagine the apparent lack of interest is fueled at least in part by the sense that it ultimately won’t matter in a system that is fundamentally rigged in the AKP’s favor.:
Good to see the MHP take a hit too.
It’s certainly dramatic on the face of it, but I’d imagine the apparent lack of interest is fueled at least in part by the sense that it ultimately won’t matter in a system that is fundamentally rigged in the AKP’s favor.:
Good to see the MHP take a hit too.
Interesting. You mean because the system has been changed to a presidential one or someone else on top?
There is that plus the attacks on the judiciary and media, the jailing of political opponents, etc. I’m not saying that Erdogan can’t necessarily be defeated, but I think the general sense that it is not a level playing-field has helped produce a degree of apathy, certainly among us watching from abroad.
It seems to me that perhaps Erdogan is mellowing? End of the day if you hold on forever in a country where inflation is going crazy, you either have to commit to repressing the population forever like Putin or Mugabe or you end up swinging from a rope. If I were 70+ I'd rather trouser some cash and retire to the seaside with my mates in government still protecting me to some degree and I'd fade into obscurity.
It's interesting how no one finishes like that?
I guess they do it even while they are at work and let others do their work, so they are no missing it. Or they are simply too scared of USA, Russians or whoever lobbying to get them arrested once they go into retirement.
Pinochet did fairly well until Tony Blair came along. I think, even if they're a terrible person, you have to incentivise the peaceful handover of power by sticking to any agreements made when they stepped down.
The problem is that they did so much shit that they are afraid that they will feck them up (kill or prison). And dictarors have no other way. Pinochet almost got fecked by a spanish judge and he got house arrest.
Putin knows that has no way out, if he steps down is utterly fecked. So many other dictators
I think his basic ideological impulses and ambitions have hit a wall and been checked by the reality of Turkey’s economic problems, modest geostrategic status, and continued social commitment to democracy and secularism. And to his credit he seems to have accepted this to a certain degree and abandoned the adventurism which I feared might lead the country to disaster during the 2010s.
If he were to resign tonight or peacefully concede power at the next elections he’d finish with a lot of credit, and while his legacy would obviously remain contested he would have earned an appraisal far beyond that of a run-of-the-mill autocrat. Whatever can be said about that aspect of his rule, it should also be recognized that he has genuinely represented significant previously marginalized sections of Turkish society, and led the country through its longest period of continuous civilian rule.* Those achievements alone should be enough to secure his status as the face of 21st century Turkey, and I really hope he’s content with that.
Of course he still has the time and perhaps the inclination and power to choose a different path. In any case, a quarter of a century is far too long for any one man to lead a nation like Turkey.
*(edit): should state, since the first proper elections were held in 1946
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