You are missing schedules in there. The end to the season included by far our toughest stretch especially the last 8 games. So yes if you slant your analysis by focussing on that, you will get a lower point total but you need to take the whole season. I could do the same with just about any team.
Arsenal 2023/24 - Born to be runner up
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You are missing schedules in there. The end to the season included by far our toughest stretch especially the last 8 games. So yes if you slant your analysis by focussing on that, you will get a lower point total but you need to take the whole season. I could do the same with just about any team.
That's kind of lazy analysis there, not taking into account the evolution of a team, new signings, schedules, competition etc.
Full season points are 61 / 69 / 84. That averages 71 points. If the extent of your analysis is adding up points and dividing by the number of seasons, then yes, that fits within you predicted range.
That does, however, ignore a huge range of factors, the most obvious of which is the direction in which Arsenal are trending.
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Their fans are absolutely unbearable on Twitter having finished second.
Imagine they actually won something.
Imagine they actually won something.
Your fans will be like it in a few years if you stay in the wilderness. The majority of your fanbase started with Roman and has only known success. Give it time.
What do you mean I missed schedules?
How come your last eight game were becoming the toughest games, yet when you played against those teams during the first part of the season they were not?
Answer is simple, it's not the schedule or anything it's just the level you have been for the last 4 years was replicated in the 19 games to the end of the season. And it reaffirms the fact the 50 point mark at 19 games was such a big anomaly to Arsenal under Arteta.
Also every other whole season, Arteta has averaged 34 points in 19 games except the first 19 games in 2022-23 season.
Arteta has spend over half a billion going to 600m with Rice, yet he hasn't won anything bar FA cup.
He was at one point 5 points clear on top with 9 games to go and lost the title with 3 games to spare. That's 20 point swing within 9 games. 27 points range.
This happened also previously with champions league football at stake in thr previous season.
So you can wish Arsenal may make the final push, but all the normal indicators will tell you, that it will be a normal season for you guys.. Rice and Havertz will not change the ship direction.
Don't expect any anomaly again, I know you all wish for such a 50 point half season haul but it won't happen again.
So it's only Mighty Arsenal which is evolving, has new signings, new schedules and in new competitions?
Again, so its Arsenal which is trending in right direction and everyone else is going opposite way?
The issue is from the 84 points remove the 50 point which you guys got from 19 games, the 34 points remaining is your Arteta level after spending €450M through the years.
So even throwing another 200m in now, won't change the ship course drastically, because even with €450M the ship didn't change its course that much. It's a very simple analogy.
Us United have been there with Ole, we know it. Chelsea have been there.
We will be here God willing to dissect the season again.
That's too harsh. They absolutely played City off the park the season before last. City fluked a last-minute win. They dominated Liverpool at Anfield the last two seasons before they riled up the crowd with needless actions. The signs of a coming breakout season were there.
What are you are doing is cherry picking your stats. If I bring up EtH and I take his first August games, Man Utd is 60 pt team. That is not reality though. EtH is building his squad and you have to see what the full season brings. What we did in 2021 does not have as much relevance as the last season to determine future form, which by averaging in a weird way is what you are doing.
We played Newcastle, Man City. Pool away, Brighton at home....stands to reason that within those 8 games, the point total is going to suffer at some point. So no, the stretch was worse than what the other 30 games had in store, which is why a lot of fans of the club were extremely nervous to call ourselves favorites at any point in the campaign.
We could well end up with 76 pts, that would be below expectations at this point.
Timber is a good signing for them.
I was wondering how Arteta will replace Partey's passing through the lines when Rice is an inferior player on the ball but I suppose they'd have enough of that ability with both Zinchenko and Timber as inverted full backs.
I was wondering how Arteta will replace Partey's passing through the lines when Rice is an inferior player on the ball but I suppose they'd have enough of that ability with both Zinchenko and Timber as inverted full backs.
We'd have to sell Saka, Martinelli and the Emirates to afford him on loan.
Who said only Arsenal are improving?
Also, why stop at removing those 50 points? Lets remove all 84 points, then Arsenal would have been relegated. It's interesting that we're subtracting points, but none of the spending. Spending which is less than than one of our London rivals has just dropped in a single season.
Your arguments are all over the place.
The issue is, and it's a fact, the 50 point after 19 games is anomaly for Arteta. It's a fact mate, that's why the other 19 games he got 34 points. Which for your information is same as what he has gotten since he was employed 2019 and spending over 400M.Nothing is over the place, this are facts. Nothing I've made up in my mind.
I'm not cherry picking, I am telling you a fact based on 4 year spread.
ETH has been here less than 1 year, if after 4 years we will still be averaging 35 points after 19 games then that will be his level. What's so wrong about saying that? Nothing, it will be a fact when it happens.
Same way Pep is 45 points coach at 19 games, he has done that for like 5 years, that is his level.
My point is, Arteta is a 35 point manager at 19 games, which spreads out to 70 points for 4 years, bar the first 19 games of last season. It's a fact. It's not a made up analogy.
Argument about you guys playing Newcastle, Mancity, Pool, Brighton is dead on water because this are 4 games only but your 19 games spread is what gave you guys 34 points. So those 4 games would have been in that 19 game period in any case. ( also the 4 games mentioned, you guys won 1 game, drew 1 game, lost 2 games, which again spreads to constant average of Arteta over the years.) this is my main argument. What happened after game 19 will continue this coming season.
Expecting another 50 point haul at game 19 is illusion thus getting over 80 points won't be possible.
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Ince saying we should sign Partey 
Nothing is over the place, this are facts. Nothing I've made up in my mind.
I'm not cherry picking, I am telling you a fact based on 4 year spread.
ETH has been here less than 1 year, if after 4 years we will still be averaging 35 points after 19 games then that will be his level. What's so wrong about saying that? Nothing, it will be a fact when it happens.
Same way Pep is 45 points coach at 19 games, he has done that for like 5 years, that is his level.
My point is, Arteta is a 35 point manager at 19 games, which spreads out to 70 points for 4 years, bar the first 19 games of last season. It's a fact. It's not a made up analogy.
Argument about you guys playing Newcastle, Mancity, Pool, Brighton is dead on water because this are 4 games only but your 19 games spread is what gave you guys 34 points. So those 4 games would have been in that 19 game period in any case. ( also the 4 games mentioned, you guys won 1 game, drew 1 game, lost 2 games, which again spreads to constant average of Arteta over the years.) this is my main argument. What happened after game 19 will continue this coming season.
Expecting another 50 point haul at game 19 is illusion thus getting over 80 points won't be possible.
I am going to respectfully disagree with your whole analysis. If you cannot see how the Arsenal 2020-2021 has dramatically changed from the 2022-2023 edition....i do not think you have watched many of our games which is fair because it is not your team.
It has very little relevance to use 2020-2021 as a factor to predict 2023-2024 outcomes. The squad is completely different. It is now no longer Arteta's first year of being at the helm. The tactics, the training, experience...literally everything. I was quietly confident at the end of last season that we were improving and I was not surprised that we got into the CL. 2nd was more than i expected but I feel like we were good money for it. We dominated a lot of oppositions and the quality displayed most games was consistent My point is we were not a lucky 2nd. Yes, we struggled at the end for a variety of reasons.
Are we supposed to lob in EtH years with Utrecht and Go head Eagles into his Man Utd stats of last year? No right? They're not particularly overwhelming but he actually did a decent job with what he had. Most of all those years are not relevant. Nobody is going to see EtH as a manager who only wins around half his games.
My brain is hemorrhage reading some of this opposition analysis. Don't change RedCafe.
Ince saying we should sign Partey
Partey’s situation is what’s keeping him from being in demand from the world’s biggest teams.But yes, if he was available to sign, he’d be a top acquisition for United.
Recovers, holds and progresses the ball better than any other midfielder at United, yes including Casemiro. It’s close with Casemiro though but I give Partey the edge because he progresses the ball from settled play whereas Casemiro is more for interceptions and turnovers. More importantly, Partey already functions in a higher line, something United are moving more towards next season.
Get in a similar player, like Tchouameni, like Armbat, or like Lavia soon. And United are making big strides in 23/24.
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They should be in the mix again.
- I expect saka, Odegaard, and martinelli to either maintain the same form or get better l
- Gabriel Jesus Will be fully healthy again
- strong reinforcements with guys like Haverts and Rice
- They have had a taste of a title race and will be better equipped for it now with last seasons experiences.
I remember last summer I said I thought Arsenal had a really good chance at top 4 and many laughed at it but this season I think many would agree that they are in the running for that again. Except this time I think they will challenge for the title again just like that season however I don’t think they will win it as I believe their will be another team in the mix this time.
- I expect saka, Odegaard, and martinelli to either maintain the same form or get better l
- Gabriel Jesus Will be fully healthy again
- strong reinforcements with guys like Haverts and Rice
- They have had a taste of a title race and will be better equipped for it now with last seasons experiences.
I remember last summer I said I thought Arsenal had a really good chance at top 4 and many laughed at it but this season I think many would agree that they are in the running for that again. Except this time I think they will challenge for the title again just like that season however I don’t think they will win it as I believe their will be another team in the mix this time.
He wouldn't for United because we have Casemiro and the midfield combination would be too poor.
The key for me will be the work rate of Xhaka, particularly off the ball. He was excellent in that respect and Havertz and Smith Rowe have big shoes to fill there.
Otherwise, with Rice coming in, Partey staying and potentially doing a deal for Lavia as well, Arsenal are stronger in midfield. At the back, we see Timber coming in, and hopefully good fitness from Tomiyasu and others in support. There is still a further discussion to be had with Balogun/Simons/Moussa Diaby upfront, to give Saka that needed competition/rotation.
Looks good for Arsenal I'd say. Its going to be a tough contest because United, Liverpool, Newcastle, Chelsea and of course City will all be back again. 23/24 becomes insanely more difficult, than an already tough 22/23 season.
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Im not talking combination, Im talking Partey benching Casemiro as your starting six.
But I dont think its a worthwhile replacement though. Why? Well because Partey is around the same age as Casemiro, so he isnt a long term option for United at six. Also, Partey's fitness is not reliable and he doesnt move the needle much more, despite being more able to play well in a possession based, high lined, system.
A better replacement for Casemiro is a younger player, like a Lavia or better yet, Tchouameni.
Maybe in his dream. No manager worth their salt would do that.
I can understand why that suggestion may seem absurd. And there is no question around who the better player among the two is.
But for our system Partey (when he is at it) is a better fit. Replace Partey with Casemiro and we are weaker.
Although Partey has other issues like fitness and consistency. Which is the dilemma we face currently as he is very difficult to replace and risky to rely for a full season.
Why is Partey a better fit?
Casemiro had to change his role here at United and done so formidably. Which is no surprise as he is one of the greatest CDM's of all time.
So what makes you think Partey would be a better fit than Casemiro?
Mate,
1. What has really changed? During the period you've stated? Anything fundamental, maybe the team set-up to 433.
a). The team collapsed again, as it collapsed when looking for Champions league football in 2022, in 2023 looking for a league title.
The main difference between Arteta and ETH is Arteta is at Arsenal for 4 years, spent 450m. Nobody is talking about Artetas time while at another club, we are trying to predict how Arteta will evolve his Arsenal team.
If after 4 years and 500m ETH will not have won anything apart from Carabao cup and averaging 70 points a season then the same facts will be used against him. It's not something to get worked on. It's just a fact.
I will tell you the easiest way to tell how things will unfold is just look at the present past and try and see a pattern. If a pattern is there it's more likely it will happen like that.
** In March I said it here, City will win the league with over 5 points of Arsenal I was bashed. I said City will completely demolish Arsenal both home and away, I was told Arsenal have improved, in Emirates you had 1 shot on target, a dubious penalty, Bernardo was left back marking your starboy Saka. In the double header against City you guys conceded 7 goals, (same as what United conceded). You can see the level for both teams against superior team.
You know why even Gary Neville said Arsenal won't win the league in January, was because City can win 15+ on the bounce while Arsenal can't. It's a very simple and easy observation. And it came to pass.
Arteta can not win 15+ games on the bounce.
Only Pep and Klopp can, they have shown it from time to time.
Even ETH can not win 15+ games on the bounce, he hasn't shown it to date
Let me give you another predictions for the on coming season,
1. City will demolish Arsenal in Etihad it's a given. A customary thrashing. And if normal service is resumed home and away beating it will be.
2. City will do a 10+ games winning run.
3. Arsenal can not win 10+ games on the bounce next season.
4. Somewhere along the season, Arsenal will hit a brick wall, especially during a 10 game period where you will win 4 games, draw some 3 games lose another 3. Where you will get 50% or less of points played
From past indications this has been happening during end of the season but for sure it must happen during the season.
You are confounding Arsenal performances with City's performances. City is on another level and we are all playing for second place....at least at this moment in time. A lot of teams are currently spending a lot of money for second place.
On that topic...Yes, Arsenal have spent. Indeed the whole look is completely different. This goes against your actual argument of lumping the seasons together. This is now Arteta's team. In his first full year the squad was a mess and it was one of the most dysfunctional Arsenal teams since the start of the PL. It is a completely different team nowadays. The whole style of play is completely different. I see almost no similarities between the club today to that of 2020-2021. Just watch a match or two from that time to understand that this comparison doesn't work.
You seem to ignore the fact that his first season over here was also his first managerial season as well. That's why the comparison of EtH at Utrecht or Go Ahead is just as valid...or imo invalid. They both had inferior teams to work with in their first seasons.
I don't know whether or not we will finish with more than 80 pts this year. This is a season of consolidation in a way and I don't see us yet at the City level. Arteta has taken some time to get going, but there is a learning curve to all jobs. I dont think you would want your whole professional career judged on the first year of it.
Anyway, like with most of these types of discussions, we will see at the end of next season if your analysis holds any merit. 71-76 pts... that's all Arteta can achieve right?
On that topic...Yes, Arsenal have spent. Indeed the whole look is completely different. This goes against your actual argument of lumping the seasons together. This is now Arteta's team. In his first full year the squad was a mess and it was one of the most dysfunctional Arsenal teams since the start of the PL. It is a completely different team nowadays. The whole style of play is completely different. I see almost no similarities between the club today to that of 2020-2021. Just watch a match or two from that time to understand that this comparison doesn't work.
You seem to ignore the fact that his first season over here was also his first managerial season as well. That's why the comparison of EtH at Utrecht or Go Ahead is just as valid...or imo invalid. They both had inferior teams to work with in their first seasons.
I don't know whether or not we will finish with more than 80 pts this year. This is a season of consolidation in a way and I don't see us yet at the City level. Arteta has taken some time to get going, but there is a learning curve to all jobs. I dont think you would want your whole professional career judged on the first year of it.
Anyway, like with most of these types of discussions, we will see at the end of next season if your analysis holds any merit. 71-76 pts... that's all Arteta can achieve right?
Hard to believe Arsenal didn't win anything last season with the attitude their fans have. They will regress this season guaranteed.
Last season was an anomaly where pretty much everything went their way and every top team struggled massively with injuries and what not. Fluke.
Last season was an anomaly where pretty much everything went their way and every top team struggled massively with injuries and what not. Fluke.
You can say that but they arguably have the second or third best squad in the league and it honestly might be the second best squad in the league.
the Partey or Casemiro argument is pointless considering we’re a month or so from being bombarded with claims Rice is better than both
If our squad isn't worth 1.5 billion by the end of season, Arteta has to be sacked !
Add Lukaku to that squad and they will match City's valuation.
With oily-Pep around, Arteta has/had no realistic chance of winning to throw away anything.
Carabao cup and maybe even the FA cup I can see us taking a hit if fixtures pile up. We really want something bigger and more memorable now. I think most Arsenal fans will be satisfied if it means deeper progression in the CL for example.
Casemiro is a great and better destroyer so there are no questions there.
In the build up phase Casemiro can keep things simple and pass to players around him or be flamboyant and make a great final pass which can be an assist or pre assist.
But what Partey does is he is very press resistant. He easily beats 1/2 guys just on a halfturn or his first touch. This he does very regularly in the game thus draws more players and then take a touch to change the angles and make a line breaking pass. This is generally a quality you have or you dont have. This while it may seem simple is very difficult to pull or consistently and helps our buildup play hugely.
Of the younger player currently in discussion I see this quality in Lavia and feel for the way we play Lavia may be the better fit for us then say Caicedo. Even though it's clear who the better player is.
Edit: Even in the Partey/Casemiro argument I would like to stress it clear who the better player is. Who is the better fit for a specific system is a different conversation.
Shit the bed and finished 2nd. Don’t ever forget it.
Everything went our way?
And there I was thinking Jesus, our only recognised striker, missed months with a knee injury, forcing us to rely upon Eddie Nketiah.
And our prodigy CB missed the run-in thanks to injury, and thanks to persistent injuries to Tomiyasu we had no choice but to resort to playing Rob Holding at the most critical stage of the season.
Our thin squad got exposed last season through injury and burnout.
Thankfully we have signed a few players that will fix that, and players like ESR and Tomiyasu are (currently) fit.
It's laughable to say with such confidence that the side will regress when there's improvement and development to be had across every position in the XI. You clearly say that from a position of ignorance. Youngest squad in the league with three first team squad players over the age of 27. We've put ourselves in the best possible position to improve and develop naturally with age and experience.
I think it’s mostly due to hate. Arsenal have arguably the second best squad in the league depending on it you feel Liverpool have massively regressed/burnt out which they seem to have done.
Arsenal are a lock for a top 3 position this year and I expect them to be in the run in for the title but it probably won’t be your year yet.
With that being said this Arsenal team is only going to get better and the signings they have made have made them legitimately stronger.
IMO Partey is better or more comfortable on the ball, better at moving past a pressing player, better dribbler and quicker with carrying the ball forward. However these aren't necessarily traits you need in your defensive midfielder.
Casemiro is a better defensive midfielder though. He's more reliable (regardless of the red cards) and he reminds me a lot of Gilberto - gets the job done with aplomb and scores goals as well.
I personally believe Casemiro is a better player, but not by much. Though I believe Partey suits our style more because of the way Arteta has his DM's play.