Alarming statistics of David de Gea in our hammerings from this season so far, and last season

[justsomebloke]

And people who are too lazy to make proper arguments or challenge their own assumptions love quoting that. As if it was the case that the same point means that people who don't analyse with stats understand football.

Anyway, I'm pretty sure Jose (and every club he's worked for) relies pretty heavily on stats in their day-to-day work.

 

[HisNameIsEarl]

Point is, its just circular logics if you look at the hammerings and conclude that ddg didn't stop many goals there, like the OP did.

There have been several sensible usages of statistics in this thread, but the opening is just selection bias at its best.

 

[Thiagoal]

I must admit there do appear to be games where De Gea’s head appears to go and he doesn’t appear to be mentally at the races. Thankfully they are few and far between but they definitely do occur!

 

[justsomebloke]

Perhaps you could elaborate on that? Because the fact that the industry does exactly that implies that some people find value in it.

The industry does not do that. Because that is not how statistics work. A given statistical performance over time/a large number of cases doesn't imply that the same performance can be expected replicated in every single case.

 

[justsomebloke]

De Gea has 2 out of 38 (5,26%) and Alisson has 1 out of 34 (2,94%). Some would qualify that as rare.

Once or twice per goalkeeper per season is not all that rare, given the extremity of the result. In any case, the obvious point is that saving % in football does not work in the way that goalkeepers have a fairly even sv%. For the even more obvious reason that the number of shots on goal a keeper normally faces in a game is very low, and also the quality of scoring chance each shot represents varies extremely. It's not like in Hockey, where a keeper can expect to face 25-40 shots in a game. Sometimes you get 10 shots and keep a clean sheet, other times you face two shots and let both of them in, without this necessarily reflecting primarily on the keeper. Hence, a viable statistical expression of performance only emerges over a longer period.

 

[Amar__]

That makes a great argument for de Gea! Except for the fact that football isn't played in 5 frames per second.

I suggest you to find the video and watch how Antonio struggles to even controls the ball in that situation. He's was going all over the place, if de Gea just launched forward he would have saved it too because Antonio didn't have any control of the ball, that's why the shot was awful too.

 

[quadrant]

The industry does not do that. Because that is not how statistics work. A given statistical performance over time/a large number of cases doesn't imply that the same performance can be expected replicated in every single case.

Nor does it imply the opposite. It depends on the model, the margin for error, the degree of confidence you're looking for and what kind of conclusion you're trying to draw from the data.

 

[Red in STL]

Both stats and the eye test tells you that De Gea is not a good keeper apart from the odd wonder save

Ah yes, some eye tests around here are definitely needed

 

[Rado_N]

That’s a staggeringly stupid OP.

Bravo.

 

[Red in STL]

Yet, carelessness or duplicity can generate misleading results. A popular cynical adage communicates this mistrust: There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.

Sounds a bit like this thread and said by a bloke who wouldn't know a football if it had hit him in the head

 

[Valencia Shin Crosses]

I don’t know if it’s really relevant if he’s faced x shots and let in y or z goals - most of Pool’s goals were either world class finishes or incredibly lucky.

I do think some stats sites have percentages for keepers saving shots and if they’re performing above or below expectations though and DDG is usually about the middle of the pack.

Correct, which sort of refutes the "world class shot stopper" people think he still is. He's middling as a pure shot stopper these days and predictably poor with his distribution/claiming crosses/etc.

 

[OrcaFat]

I don’t know if it’s really relevant if he’s faced x shots and let in y or z goals - most of Pool’s goals were either world class finishes or incredibly lucky.

I do think some stats sites have percentages for keepers saving shots and if they’re performing above or below expectations though and DDG is usually about the middle of the pack.

I thought he’d be near the top. He’s not very good in other parts of his game (commanding his area, distribution, using his feet) if we’re brutally honest.

He does make some great saves and I’m not one who’s often called for him to be sold (although he did have a rough spell last year) but, if even his stopping is average, his days must be numbered, surely?

 

[OrcaFat]

Nor does it imply the opposite. It depends on the model, the margin for error, the degree of confidence you're looking for and what kind of conclusion you're trying to draw from the data.

Regardless of models and margins and, I suppose variance in the data set, sample size, proper controls, lab coat and specs, there is a simple truth that you can’t take data averaged over a long period and expect it apply directly in a one-off game.

I’m sure stats and data are used a lot, of course, in the industry.

 

[Kostov]

Alternative to players is a lesser priority than improving on your first choice go. GK, playmaker 8, CF and RB are our four big ones either way for me at least

An injury to either Bruno, Casemiro or Rashford and we are fecked. Yes it is more important that we find a quality alternative to them than upgrade from DDG to Raya or some other mediocre alternative.

 

[tomaldinho1]

I thought he’d be near the top. He’s not very good in other parts of his game (commanding his area, distribution, using his feet) if we’re brutally honest.

He does make some great saves and I’m not one who’s often called for him to be sold (although he did have a rough spell last year) but, if even his stopping is average, his days must be numbered, surely?

He used to be, I think we now probably just assume he still is. Think someone posted earlier in the thread using fbref and he’s 16th out of 21 for save%. They do note that if a defender blocks a shot it counts in this stat (but obviously that applies to all other keepers as well) but it gives a good overview.

Usually the worse teams’ keepers are around the top but Kepa is actually No1 (he’s played less games though), Alisson is 6th, Ramsdale 8th. Ironically Henderson and DDG are almost exactly the same (DDG is 16th, Henderson is 17th). Ederson looks to be having a bad season which would chime with City’s poor defence this year albeit I don’t watch them so wouldn’t know if that’s true or not.

 

[Murder on Zidanes Floor]

Our hammerings last season (2021/2022):

Man Utd 0-5 Liverpool
8 attempts on target by Liverpool

Watford 4-1 Man Utd
7 attempts on target by Watford

Leicester 4-2 Man Utd
11 attempts on target by Leicester

Man City 4-1 Man Utd
10 attempts on target by City

Liverpool 4-0 Man Utd
5 attempts on target by Liverpool

Brighton 4-0 Man Utd
6 attempts on target by Brighton

47 attempts on target at David de Gea, 25 goals scored


Our hammerings so far this season (2022/2023):

Brentford 4-0 Man Utd
7 attempts on target by Brentford

Man City 6-3 Man Utd
10 attempts on target by City

Liverpool 7-0 Man Utd
8 attempts on target by Liverpool

25 attempts on target at David de Gea, 17 goals scored


Combined totals from last season’s hammerings, and this season’s hammerings:

72 attempts on target at David de Gea, 42 goals scored.
58.33% of the combined shots on target in the batterings have been goals, that is more than half!


Take out the hammering from Liverpool on Sunday, and the combined totals from the other hammerings read:

64 attempts on target at David de Gea, 35 goals scored
54.68% of the shots on target being goals. That is still more than half!


The supporters of David de Gea always say that his greatest attribute is his shot-stopping ability.


What shot-stopping ability?

This is possibly the worst post on the entire forum.

 

[ThatsGreat]

So De Gea conceded more goals in the matches that Utd lost heavily? Interesting.

 

[sullydnl]

This is possibly the worst post on the entire forum.

Not even the worst post today. I raise you:

https://www.redcafe.net/threads/erik-ten-hag-manchester-united-manager.470032/post-30262269

 

[Red in STL]

Not even the worst post today. I raise you:

https://www.redcafe.net/threads/erik-ten-hag-manchester-united-manager.470032/post-30262269

That one's by a troll

 

[TheReligion]

@The Oracle I don’t think you’re a United fan.

You last posted on the forum in December about the World Cup. Your last post about United was in October around the time we were beaten by City.

Since Christmas United have been the form team in Europe, beating Barca, City and winning a first trophy in 6 years yet you’ve not posted once.

Then United get beaten by Liverpool Sunday and you’ve created five different threads to discuss the topic in the United forum and posted multiple times in three days.

Why do people like you bother with this kinda rubbish? No idea what you get out of it if I’m honest.

 

[The Oracle]

I don’t know if it’s really relevant if he’s faced x shots and let in y or z goals - most of Pool’s goals were either world class finishes or incredibly lucky.

I do think some stats sites have percentages for keepers saving shots and if they’re performing above or below expectations though and DDG is usually about the middle of the pack.

'Usually about the middle of the pack' would suggest that his shot-stopping abilities are not what they used to be.

 

[The Oracle]

That's certainly a wild way to use statistics.

Nothing new in other words.

It highlights that in our heavy defeats over the past two seasons, on average every 2nd attempt on target has been a goal.

 

[tomaldinho1]

'Usually about the middle of the pack' would suggest that his shot-stopping abilities are not what they used to be.

That’s what I was saying.

 

[The Oracle]

Put another keeper in goal and for a lot of those game the score lines aren’t going to be too different. He’s had some poor moments in those games but you can’t blame him for the hammerings.

On shot-stopping ability alone (which a lot would identify as being De Gea's greatest strength), in the games combined, he has conceded on average every 2nd shot on target.

I've not even mentioned about other facets of goalkeeping, such as:
- Commanding the area
- Being proactive
- Organising defence
- Sweeping

In my opinion, having a goalkeeper that is above average at more than one facet of goalkeeping, would've made a difference.

That isn't the angle of the thread though, as I am focusing on what is claimed to be De Gea's biggest strength, and that is his shot-stopping ability.

 

[The Oracle]

I can't be bothered to watch those match highlights again (hint for someone else to do it and post their findings ) so I don't know how many genuine mistakes have been there from him specifically but sometimes i do feel that he gives up a bit easily in some of our drubbings down the years. People will disagree but i thought the Gakpo second goal and the Firminho one were bad goalkeeping but not much he could do with the rest.

He's also had a lot of games where he's produced wonder performances, let's not forget that.

They were certainly the ones I thought he could have done better on.

 

[The Oracle]

I mean, if he wasn't a great shot stopper then Leicester would have been 3-0 up at half time a couple of weeks ago. Most of the goals we conceded against Pool were unpreventable.

I think it's fair to say that our defence was all over the show, and our keeper isn't renowned as being a great organiser of his defenders, so that would be a counter argument to what you say (that if he organised his defence, there is every possibility that the score could have been lower than what it was).

However, as the angle of the thread is focusing on De Gea's shot-stopping ability alone (which is supposed to be De Gea's greatest attribute), in the high scoring games we have been on the receiving end of the past two seasons, every 2nd shot on target at De Gea has been a goal - which would call into question just how good his shot-stopping ability actually is.

 

[The Oracle]

A new contract for being anything other than the reserve keeper would be astonishing

That would be akin to being demoted, and if he viewed it that way I don't think he would stay around to be a reserve keeper

 

[SAFMUTD]

Problem with him is we're put in danger in many situations that shouldnt happen but we allowed them to happen because he's not a proactive GK. He was great 4 years ago, now he's more of a liability than a worldclass keeper. We need to move on from him as sad as that sounds because he was an absolute start for many years.

 

[The Oracle]

I didn't come away from the game thinking de gea had a bad game. As with a lot of our batterings he's often totally exposed. Like when salah is through in the middle of the goal and the ball sits up for him to volley it in off the bar at a billion miles an hour what are we expecting de gea to do. Or when the ball is pinged in off nunez head from 2 yards or an unmarked player puts a header in the far corner. He's not saving them is he? No one is.

I can't remember all the goals, I've blocked them from my mind, so I won't go on.

On shot-stopping ability alone he couldn't do anything about the goals you mentioned.
If he organised his defence the 'unmarked' Nunez header into the far corner could have been prevented, but this thread is about his shot-stopping ability alone, and not about other facets of goalkeeping, so I won't discuss any further about that.

 

[The Oracle]

Keepers are paid to make saves. There isn't a keeper in the league who hasn't made some good saves this season.

Shot stopping is judged over a season, or multiple seasons. He's under-performing his xGA this season. His shot stopping has been average if we're being very kind, below average if you take the seasons stats at face value.

It's the same story every season since 18/19 - his shot stopping is not even good.

He's lifting off past reputation. His last good season was 17/18.

I agree with that.

 

[The Oracle]

Urgh, i went back and watched the other two 'hammerings' just to see and yes there are a few mistakes from him but a lot of them he didn't have anything to do with. In other words, stating the bleeding obvious, you can't specifically point at him as THE problem, but I don't think it's unfair to say he might be a problem in collective defending.

My overall feeling is that I wish we had more of an authoritative goalkeeper; mistakes like the first goal against Brentford can happen to the best goalies in the world but i'm more irritated by how passive he seems for Brentford's third-like can you actually make your way over to the ball maybe a bit quicker? One or two of the one's against City and that Firminho goal too. Is that harsh?

He's not renowned for organising his defence, nor is he renowned for being proactive, and when his greatest ability of shot-stopping appears to be subsiding, then it doesn't paint a very good picture overall.

 

[Gurtej]

We are put under pressure too many times when he pass the ball…. It’s like he can’t read the situation when he makes a pass….you simply can’t play from the back with him in goal and I said this before that GK should be a priority like a striker and another 2 MF..

another thing is that I have never seen him finding a run and distributing it quickly …

Most goal keepers are good shot stopper…as much as I like him, he should be replaced this season!

 

[The Oracle]

But he "saves shots no other keeper could"

Certainly questionable in my opinion.

 

[The Oracle]

It's meant to be his strongest area, and he's getting massively outperformed by other keepers in his own domain.

And we know he doesn't excel at collecting aerial crosses or passing the ball either, his stats are even worse in those areas.

So I'm not sure where exactly he's meant to be excelling.

Once his shot-stopping abilities are looked at further, it does indeed highlight that De Gea has a lot of weaknesses (or is average at best), at other facets of goalkeeping like the ones you have mentioned.

 

[The Oracle]

It's that he's a goalkeeper who desperately relies on his shot-stopping ability to compensate for weaknesses in his overall game who may have conceded a bit more than he should have.

If he's conceding more than he should and not sweeping as much as he should and not claiming crosses as much as he should and not as good on the ball as we'd like then he is very much a problem.

Very well articulated to be fair.

Also, the 'not sweeping as much', the 'not claiming crosses as much' and 'not as good on the ball as we'd like' invariably lead to more chances for the opposition, and goes without saying that the more attempts on goal the opposition have, the more chance they have of scoring a goal - which in a roundabout way, says that De Gea 'is very much a problem' when his greatest attribute of shot-stopping ability becomes average.

 

[The Oracle]

Flawed stats or not I think it’s fairly obvious to anyone with functioning eyes he’s a major issue.

I would say that what is apparent, is that the more matches you see him in, the more you question whether or not he is actually the best goalkeeper on the pitch.

 

[The Oracle]

The sooner we stop putting off replacing him, the better. He's shocking

What I'd be more interested to know at this point is to what degree the Caf splits between thinking a) he isn't a problem and should be kept, b) he is a problem but not a priority for this summer and should be kept or c) he is a problem that should be solved this summer.

Because I think the vast majority will belong to groups b and c, who fully understand that De Gea is a problem and don't really need to have it explained to them. It's just a question of priorities and how many improvements can be made to the team overall in the next transfer window.

There's my answer.

 

[The Oracle]

Are you trying to portray the fact that more goals conceded dont scale with shots to the point where 4 in a game equals the same % as 1 in a game? The only thing to take from your list is that it is a fact of maths, not a explanation as to why De Gea concedes goals.

What I am saying is this:
In less than 2 seasons, 9 matches have been big defeats, and on average more than every 2nd attempt on target in those matches has been a goal:

Save...goal...save...goal...save...goal... (rinse and repeat to include 30 saves, and 42 goals conceded).

 

[The Oracle]

This data would have to be compared to other top keepers to draw any conclusion

either way I think we need a new GK badly

If we want to compete with the best, then we have to have the best (or better than we've got as a starting point).

Sadly, and a lot of posters don't like to hear anything like this, in my opinion De Gea is not the best keeper anymore, I don't think his shot-stopping ability is anywhere near as good as it once was, and that was his biggest strength - which he has relied upon the most because all other facets of goalkeeping he is distinctively average at.

 

[The Oracle]

The problem with De Gea isn't his shot stopping per se or his distribution although they are both fairly average in PL terms. He is a spectacular save maker but also has some technique issues that lead him to let in more soft ones than he should.

His problem is his total lack of command, sweeping, organising and authority that ultimately leads to defensive indecisiveness that eventually leads to defensive chaos that he then has a habit of thriving in thanks to his ability to make spectacular saves.

It's like a slow disease that has affected every defender that has ever played Infront of him. Eventually they end up utterly confused and indecisive and shot of confidence and get replaced. Normally after looking good for a time Infront of De Gea before the realisation that the Keeper behind them won't leave his line ever for anything and they don't no weather to come or go and more often than not end up in no man's land.

What you're implying there in a roundabout way, is that De Gea's facets of goalkeeping (other than shot-stopping), actually lead to him facing more attempts at his goal.

So in essence he is the creator of his own problems, with those problems resulting in him having to make more saves, and the more saves he's having to make, the more chance there is of him conceding.... from many chances that he is responsible for creating!