Alarming statistics of David de Gea in our hammerings from this season so far, and last season

His post-shot xG isn't very good this season to be fair. I thought he'd be doing better than that from watching the games.

Essentially means he lets in 0.17 goals per 90 minutes more than an average 'keeper is expected to based on the quality of shots he faced. Assuming the model is correct of course, which it may or may not be.

Ederson ropey too acording to that. How bad are Travers and Bazunu!?
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Here's the expected save-% for the Liverpool goals using said PSxG:

1st goal (Gakpo): 45%
2nd goal (Nunez): 27%
3rd goal (Gakpo 1): 4%
4th goal (Salah): 73%
5th goal (Nunez): 74%
6th goal (Salah): 33%
7th goal (Firmino): 55%

Here's the City game:

1st goal (Foden): 85%
2nd goal (Haaland): 86%
3rd goal (Haaland): 12%
4th goal (Foden): 12%
5th goal (Haaland): 97%
6th goal (Foden): 21%

Looking at the replay of these goals you can easily just write off post-shot xG as pure non-sense.
 
This is a bad thread on a few levels.

First because those aren't the most informative stats to begin with, second because they aren't contextualised against other goalkeepers' performances in games where they're hammered, third because the nature of football is such that you will rarely get a hammering where the goalkeeper doesn't appear to underperform statistically (i.e. a team that concedes 5, 6 or 7 goals will almost never have conceded anything like 5, 6 or 7 xG/PSxG, they are by definition outlier results), fourth because you're then using that biased sample to make a point about his overall shot-stopping and finally because criticising De Gea hardly merits a new thread when there's already sustained criticism in his own performance thread.
 
Dominos said:
Keepers are paid to make saves. There isn't a keeper in the league who hasn't made some good saves this season.

Shot stopping is judged over a season, or multiple seasons. He's under-performing his xGA this season. His shot stopping has been average if we're being very kind, below average if you take the seasons stats at face value.

It's the same story every season since 18/19 - his shot stopping is not even good.

He's lifting off past reputation. His last good season was 17/18.
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He’s conceded 35 goals with an Expected Goals Against of 31.5. Absolutely nothing to see here. Yes he’s had better seasons. But he’s far from being the problem or even A problem. Some of these meltdowns are hilarious.
 
PSV said:
Here's the expected save-% for the Liverpool goals using said PSxG:

1st goal (Gakpo): 45%
2nd goal (Nunez): 27%
3rd goal (Gakpo 1): 4%
4th goal (Salah): 73%
5th goal (Nunez): 74%
6th goal (Salah): 33%
7th goal (Firmino): 55%

Here's the City game:

1st goal (Foden): 85%
2nd goal (Haaland): 86%
3rd goal (Haaland): 12%
4th goal (Foden): 12%
5th goal (Haaland): 97%
6th goal (Foden): 21%

Looking at the replay of these goals you can easily just write off post-shot xG as pure non-sense.
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“I don’t like these stats therefore they’re wrong” is never a particularly convincing argument.
 
Urgh, i went back and watched the other two 'hammerings' just to see and yes there are a few mistakes from him but a lot of them he didn't have anything to do with. In other words, stating the bleeding obvious, you can't specifically point at him as THE problem, but I don't think it's unfair to say he might be a problem in collective defending.

My overall feeling is that I wish we had more of an authoritative goalkeeper; mistakes like the first goal against Brentford can happen to the best goalies in the world but i'm more irritated by how passive he seems for Brentford's third-like can you actually make your way over to the ball maybe a bit quicker? One or two of the one's against City and that Firminho goal too. Is that harsh?



 
quadrant said:
“I don’t like these stats therefore they’re wrong” is never a particularly convincing argument.
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It’s the stupid narrative of “Why does our goal keeper concede goals when the opponents score a lot of goals?”. Seriously.
 
If these "data" were presented as evidence in a high school statistics class I'd fail the student immediately.
 
Chief123 said:
He’s conceded 35 goals with an Expected Goals Against of 31.5. Absolutely nothing to see here. Yes he’s had better seasons. But he’s far from being the problem or even A problem. Some of these meltdowns are hilarious.
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It's meant to be his strongest area, and he's getting massively outperformed by other keepers in his own domain.

And we know he doesn't excel at collecting aerial crosses or passing the ball either, his stats are even worse in those areas.

So I'm not sure where exactly he's meant to be excelling.
 
Chief123 said:
He’s conceded 35 goals with an Expected Goals Against of 31.5. Absolutely nothing to see here. Yes he’s had better seasons. But he’s far from being the problem or even A problem. Some of these meltdowns are hilarious.
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The general issue isn't (or at least shouldn't be) that he's a goalkeeper who may have conceded a bit more than he should have.

It's that he's a goalkeeper who desperately relies on his shot-stopping ability to compensate for weaknesses in his overall game who may have conceded a bit more than he should have.

If he's conceding more than he should and not sweeping as much as he should and not claiming crosses as much as he should and not as good on the ball as we'd like then he is very much a problem.

But again, we already have De Gea threads for discussing that in. We didn't need this extra one based around skewed stats.
 
PSV said:
Here's the expected save-% for the Liverpool goals using said PSxG:

1st goal (Gakpo): 45%
2nd goal (Nunez): 27%
3rd goal (Gakpo 1): 4%
4th goal (Salah): 73%
5th goal (Nunez): 74%
6th goal (Salah): 33%
7th goal (Firmino): 55%

Here's the City game:

1st goal (Foden): 85%
2nd goal (Haaland): 86%
3rd goal (Haaland): 12%
4th goal (Foden): 12%
5th goal (Haaland): 97%
6th goal (Foden): 21%

Looking at the replay of these goals you can easily just write off post-shot xG as pure non-sense.
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I'd assume that there'd likely be very little correlation between post shot xG and actual goals conceded if that were case, yet it matches up well.

Number of goals scored this season =681
Post shot xG of all shots on target (all teams) =629+33 own goals =662

Of course, it's possible that they've just fluked on being not far off whilst being miles out for individual shots. Some shots may be overrated, some underrated and you could end up at around the correct figure still. I don't know what to think on that one.
 
Amar__ said:
People using saves like the one against West Ham is exactly the reason why it's difficult to discuss de Get with some of our fans. Those were good saves, but the kind of saves every decent goalkeeper would save, actually if he conceded any of those two shots against Antonio I think I would blame the keeper because the shots were quite shite, especially the first one for the one on one situation, he delayed and delayed and then fluffed the ball and shot straight at the keeper, đe Gea didn't even do anything except stood on his feet and made himself big.
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Flawed stats or not I think it’s fairly obvious to anyone with functioning eyes he’s a major issue.
 
sullydnl said:
The general issue isn't (or at least shouldn't be) that he's a goalkeeper who may have conceded a bit more than he should have.

It's that he's a goalkeeper who desperately relies on his shot-stopping ability to compensate for weaknesses in his overall game who may have conceded a bit more than he should have.

If he's conceding more than he should and not sweeping as much as he should and not claiming crosses as much as he should and not as good on the ball as we'd like then he is very much a problem.

But again, we already have De Gea threads for discussing that in. We didn't need this extra one based around skewed stats.
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The problem with having so much emphasis on stats is it completely ignores context.

Liverpool match for example was a shambles and it would be harsh to say De Gea was at fault for any of the goals. Yet he conceded 7 goals with an xG Against of 3 which would suggest he’s performed poorly.

What can’t be denied is De Gea makes huge saves in key moments. When games are on a knife edge, time and again he’s made the crucial saves which either keep us in the game or ensure the win.

Regardless, it’s pretty obvious ETH wants to seek an upgrade on De Gea anyway as we know he has weaknesses. But to start targeting him as a major problem is a lame case.
 
The sooner we stop putting off replacing him, the better. He's shocking
 
What I'd be more interested to know at this point is to what degree the Caf splits between thinking a) he isn't a problem and should be kept, b) he is a problem but not a priority for this summer and should be kept or c) he is a problem that should be solved this summer.

Because I think the vast majority will belong to groups b and c, who fully understand that De Gea is a problem and don't really need to have it explained to them. It's just a question of priorities and how many improvements can be made to the team overall in the next transfer window.
 
The Oracle said:
Our hammerings last season (2021/2022):

Man Utd 0-5 Liverpool
8 attempts on target by Liverpool

Watford 4-1 Man Utd
7 attempts on target by Watford

Leicester 4-2 Man Utd
11 attempts on target by Leicester

Man City 4-1 Man Utd
10 attempts on target by City

Liverpool 4-0 Man Utd
5 attempts on target by Liverpool

Brighton 4-0 Man Utd
6 attempts on target by Brighton

47 attempts on target at David de Gea, 25 goals scored


Our hammerings so far this season (2022/2023):

Brentford 4-0 Man Utd
7 attempts on target by Brentford

Man City 6-3 Man Utd
10 attempts on target by City

Liverpool 7-0 Man Utd
8 attempts on target by Liverpool

25 attempts on target at David de Gea, 17 goals scored


Combined totals from last season’s hammerings, and this season’s hammerings:

72 attempts on target at David de Gea, 42 goals scored.
58.33% of the combined shots on target in the batterings have been goals, that is more than half!


Take out the hammering from Liverpool on Sunday, and the combined totals from the other hammerings read:

64 attempts on target at David de Gea, 35 goals scored
54.68% of the shots on target being goals. That is still more than half!


The supporters of David de Gea always say that his greatest attribute is his shot-stopping ability.


What shot-stopping ability?
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Please watch the games and try to figure out how many of those shots DeGea could save. Start with Liverpool.

People love to blame everybody right now. Calm down. This was a big loss and whole team that fell apart in second half. It happens sometimes. Nothing to get to emotional about. Next game is in two days time.
 
quadrant said:
“I don’t like these stats therefore they’re wrong” is never a particularly convincing argument.
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They aren't stats the way a goal or an assist is. They are make-believe stats based on broken metrics.

I'm not defending De Gea here, I'm tearing into post-shot xG which can't be used for anything.

Alisson gained +1,06 from the game, what did we even do that was remotely threatening?
 
PSV said:
They aren't stats the way a goal or an assist is. They are make-believe stats based on broken metrics.

I'm not defending De Gea here, I'm tearing into post-shot xG which can't be used for anything.

Alisson gained +1,01 from the game, what did we even do that was remotely threatening?
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First half we had some decent chances and quite limply shot at him tbf.
 
sullydnl said:
What I'd be more interested to know at this point is to what degree the Caf splits between thinking a) he isn't a problem and should be kept, b) he is a problem but not a priority for this summer and should be kept or c) he is a problem that should be solved this summer.

Because I think the vast majority will belong to groups b and c, who fully understand that De Gea is a problem and don't really need to have it explained to them. It's just a question of priorities and how many improvements can be made to the team overall in the next transfer window.
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This needs a thread with a poll. I think it will be split three ways in those options
 
pacifictheme said:
First half we had some decent chances and quite limply shot at him tbf.
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Post-shot xG should eliminate that in theory. It's attempting to measure how hard the saves were/how good the shots were rather than how good the chances were.

You can have great chances with poor shots that result in easy saves. You can have 25-yarders that have little chance of scoring at the point of the shot that end up being almost unsaveable.
 
Weird thread. Doesn't take into account the context of the goals.

Scoring goals from cutbacks and defensive mistakes that make so easy to score. I can tell you, that without even going back to those games, I remember instances where De Gea had no chance of making saves.
 
The use of statistics in this thread is pretty horrendous.

But he's a problem, that's for sure. It's nothing to do with the 7-0 or other hammerings and everything to do with his wider stats and performances that see him underperforming in comparison to other keepers.
 
Does the statistical analyses of everything in football take some of the joy out of the game for anyone else?

I know they have a place and are important for the coaching side of things, but primarily viewing a game or a player through their stats never really tells the whole story for me.

Not related to this game or thread as such, more a general view of statistics and how some seem to view the game through them.
 
Chipper said:
As per FBref:

Man Utd 0-5 Liverpool =4.4

Watford 4-1 Man Utd =2.6

Leicester 4-2 Man Utd =3.7

Man City 4-1 Man Utd =2.9

Liverpool 4-0 Man Utd =2.0

Brighton 4-0 Man Utd = 2.4

Brentford 4-0 Man Utd =2.3

Man City 6-3 Man Utd =3.1

Liverpool 7-0 Man Utd =3.9
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This is a more valid stat than OP.
 
Goal keeper lets in more goals when first team plays like rookies shocker.
 
I think there are plenty of very legitimate criticisms of De Gea. This is not one of them.

These statistics by themselves don't tell us an awful lot about how De Gea performed in those matches. It could be the case that the quality of chances we've been conceding in these "hammerings" is considerably higher than average, meaning the shots De Gea's facing are far more difficult to save.

Now, what I would say is that when your only real selling point as a goalkeeper is that you're able to make spectacular saves beyond what would be expected of the average keeper, you aren't exactly likely to come out of any high-scoring matches (for the opposition) with much credit. One of the big issues I have with De Gea is that he's below average for a Premier League keeper at damn near everything bar shot stopping, and this isn't exactly a great look when we're paying him 375 grand a week.
 
RedDevil@84 said:
Goal keeper lets in more goals when first team plays like rookies shocker.
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Goalkeeper let's in 7 goals numbers 3 and 7 will shock you....

I think he's a problem and should be replaced. I'd have replacing him top of the list of summer transfers.

But he can't really be blamed for much of that shitshow on Sunday.
 
The Oracle said:
Our hammerings last season (2021/2022):

Man Utd 0-5 Liverpool
8 attempts on target by Liverpool

Watford 4-1 Man Utd
7 attempts on target by Watford

Leicester 4-2 Man Utd
11 attempts on target by Leicester

Man City 4-1 Man Utd
10 attempts on target by City

Liverpool 4-0 Man Utd
5 attempts on target by Liverpool

Brighton 4-0 Man Utd
6 attempts on target by Brighton

47 attempts on target at David de Gea, 25 goals scored


Our hammerings so far this season (2022/2023):

Brentford 4-0 Man Utd
7 attempts on target by Brentford

Man City 6-3 Man Utd
10 attempts on target by City

Liverpool 7-0 Man Utd
8 attempts on target by Liverpool

25 attempts on target at David de Gea, 17 goals scored


Combined totals from last season’s hammerings, and this season’s hammerings:

72 attempts on target at David de Gea, 42 goals scored.
58.33% of the combined shots on target in the batterings have been goals, that is more than half!


Take out the hammering from Liverpool on Sunday, and the combined totals from the other hammerings read:

64 attempts on target at David de Gea, 35 goals scored
54.68% of the shots on target being goals. That is still more than half!


The supporters of David de Gea always say that his greatest attribute is his shot-stopping ability.


What shot-stopping ability?
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Have you ever played football? For someone called the Oracle you dont see much do you?

Also can we stop with the fecking threads on this jesus christ
 
JagUTD said:
Does the statistical analyses of everything in football take some of the joy out of the game for anyone else?

I know they have a place and are important for the coaching side of things, but primarily viewing a game or a player through their stats never really tells the whole story for me.

Not related to this game or thread as such, more a general view of statistics and how some seem to view the game through them.
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I love it!

Now as someone who has posted up a fair few stats in this thread I wouldn't say view the game through them. The overall post-shot xG results I posted up for De Gea did suspire me as I thought he'd been making some good saves this season. If I had to guess I'd have said he might be above average on that stat, not at the very top nor near the bottom like he is.

I'm not going let that make me do a complete 180 in that regard but it gave me food for thought. Always got to remember that the model itself might not be great and I haven't seen the inner workings of it to be able to attempt to pass informed opinion on it. Even if I had I may not understand it as I'm not sure I'm not sure I'd be intelligent enough!

Still, I love my numbers and stats overall. Used to play around with them when trying to predict football matches. Either when gambling on them or score prediction games. Also like a bit of poker and enjoy the mathematical side of it. Was basic stuff when it came to football and I don't have the skills to even attempt to build hugely complicated models.

In another life I'd have tried to be data analyst or data scientist, and football would have been a very interesting field get into. Certainly more fun than building car insurance premium calculators or similar.
 
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Here's a funny statistic (it bears no point, I just thought it was coincidentally funny):

Shots on target / goals conceded last 10 games:
Manchester United - 45 shots, 14 goals (31%)
Liverpool - 32 shots, 10 goals (31%)
Manchester City - 19 shots, 6 goals (31%)
 
sullydnl said:
What I'd be more interested to know at this point is to what degree the Caf splits between thinking a) he isn't a problem and should be kept, b) he is a problem but not a priority for this summer and should be kept or c) he is a problem that should be solved this summer.

Because I think the vast majority will belong to groups b and c, who fully understand that De Gea is a problem and don't really need to have it explained to them. It's just a question of priorities and how many improvements can be made to the team overall in the next transfer window.
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D. Not a massive problem as such but could be upgraded
 
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