I don't follow these sorts of formulas anymore. I think many of our fans have a tendency to almost in an Essien calculator sort of way to declare that we are the best option for a player, and it rarely turns out this way. We had mathematically concluded that Hazard would choose us, Thiago will obviously choose us ahead of Bayern etc. Often, I'd imagine money talks largely, and if Barcelona/Real dreams are revealed, then it presents a new problem.
With regards to players in their final year of contract, they are all leaving until they have signed a contract, in my view. With months to go, you have now entered the stage where action is everything, like coming to the final days of a transfer window for example. At that stage, whatever will happen has to actually happen, speculation will be proven true or false soon enough. If months go by without Adnan extending, I will assume he is leaving, regardless of the rhetoric coming from the club in the media.