That was definitely always the case, but did this election prove it more than any other? Right now the biggest difference to 2020 seems to be that a lot of Democratic voters didn't actually turn out, as opposed to them turning into Republicans.
2024 U.S. Elections | Trump wins
- Thread starter Raoul
- Start date
That was definitely always the case, but did this election prove it more than any other? Right now the biggest difference to 2020 seems to be that a lot of Democratic voters didn't actually turn out, as opposed to them turning into Republicans.
There is no indication whatsoever that Trump will ban gay marriage. Key figures related to him are gays (albeit, I understand that this might be a weak argument).
If it goes to the Supreme Court, again it does not matter who is president.
Trump might not have any personal desires to ban gay marriage, but his party sure does. And they're probably about to control Congress completely, plus they have the supreme court (if it comes to that).
The musk thing is partically mental considering in trumps first term he was part of the round table of all the great minds trump decided to put together and musk left it, pretty quickly.
Its going to be a messy breakup when Trump starts getting annoyed at media reports Musk is running the show at the WH and not him. A Steve Bannon style divorce will probably ensue at some point.
Musk says that he will want to leave as soon as possible. Basically, do the ‘necessary’ cuts, fire people, dismantle departments, reduce the bureaucracy and then leave.
Would be interesting to see if this is true, will Trump think that Musk is ‘outshining’ him and thus fire him, or if they will have a happy marriage. So far, it seems that Trump is giving lots of credit to Musk (as in, the family picture that has Musk instead of Melania).
Musk was still semi-normal 8 years ago. Today, its simply a matter of wanting to influence policy in his favor. For SpaceX, Tesla, and his business, and also his various cultural projects of the moment involving crushing the "woke mind virus".
If there's anything we've learned about Trump its that he will use someone for a short period of time to meet his needs, then ditch them when they get too big for their boots. Musk won't be an exception.
Why would you need Musk to do that though? Any old Republican could do that.
We will see. Not saying that it won’t happen, but I wouldn’t be so sure as you about this.
Trump is on his second term and wants to secure his legacy. He is obsessed with being the bestest, and greatest President, probably on his mind, also the most beloved president. Having Musk on his side will help him to push his agenda, both on terms of X (and Musk following) and the House election in 2 years. And as extra points, he has the richest man in the world as his personal bitch.
I think his decisions so far seems much more calculated rather than erratic/random as it was last time around. But then it has been just a week so who knows.
That seems what Musk wants, not like that he is the only person who can do so.
There's a lot of of fanciful thinking going around about Trump's second term on the right and in silicon valley. Trump is a populist. He's impulsive, unprincipled and lacks any strategic nous. Musk knows nothing about governing or politics. Republicans have little interest in governing. Some of people around Trump are genuinely some of the vilest people imaginable. The whole thing is going to be a disaster and Musk will be the fall guy.
I think there's more compelling evidence that voters switched. The main argument I've seen that Dem turnout was the issue is that Trump "kept" a similar number of voters in total, but that's harder to argue on a more granular level.
So for example the Nevada guy, Jon Ralston, looked at early vote patterns in Nevada, and based on that, concluded that Harris would win. But she lost. This is what he said afterward:
Biden got 522k votes in Clark County in 2020 and Trump got 431k. If you multiply that by the population growth of the state (seems to be around 5%) you'd expect D/R votes in 2024 to be 549k and 453k respectively. But Trump got 482k votes in 2024. That's 30k more than expected. Harris got 510k, which is 39k less than expected, and 11k less than Biden. Trump had to make up that difference somewhere, and since votes for 'other options' also decreased from 2020 to 2024, the answers are either 'from people who voted Democrat last time' or 'from people who never vote.' The first option is likelier (though there's surely a bit of everything).
Generally there's been some pretty big shifts in counties, states, demographic groups. If you remove 1 vote from column D and make it disappear, it only has about half the effect of moving it from column D into column R. So it starts to get pretty unlikely that these big shifts are just from turnouts.
Last edited:
Norwich/Hartford, VT. My partner was so angry that she wants to move to another country, but I told her that she won't find anywhere abroad that is as liberal as right here.
I get her anger but you're probably right. Even some of the most liberal/progressive countries in Europe have some serious conservative undertones you won't understand until you live there (source: lived all over the place). Looking at the map though I am surprised that being in the relative sticks where you are is so progressive. Is there a story there, or is it just a Vermont thing in general?
I'd put a tenner on Musk and Donald falling out before the actual inauguration in 3 months... both are narcissists and psychopaths.
Sadly you cannot move to the Caf.
Wouldn’t bet against you. Trump has already used the likes of Musk and RFK Jr. on what he mostly needed them for, which was winning the election. He doesn’t actually need them for what comes next.
I tried to google for the actual poll back when I read that, but couldn't find it. Norwegian young men being more pro Trump than American young men doesn't pass the smell test.
If that's true, then it also has to be true that Trump and the GOP failed to turn out their 2020 voters, given he only gained marginally on his total vote numbers from then - and in a larger electorate.
https://www.ipsos.com/nb-no/preside...ant-nordmenn-men-trump-storst-blant-unge-menn
1123 respondents for the whole thing, 110 that fit the category men 18-29. Obviously that is far too little to be precise, but it's definitely an indication. As a teacher, I believe it. But the vast majority in that category have a very superficial idea of who Donald Trump is and what he represents. There's every reason to believe the numbers would be far from that bullish for Trump if they could actually vote for him.
What if we move the Caf and stage and chain ourselves to Old Trafford and claim that part of Manchester as a safe haven. We can turn it into a fortress in the literal sense.
Why Was There a Broad Drop-Off in Democratic Turnout in 2024?
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/11/us/politics/democrats-trump-harris-turnout.html
Sorta. It's tricky to extrapolate because 2020 turnout was an aberration. It was never entirely clear what turnout would be like in 2024. Nonetheless, marginal gains after being convicted of a felony is nothing to sneeze at.
To be clear I'm not saying turnout doesn't matter. But I don't like the 'almost nobody switches votes' theory, besides it not being true it can lead to taking people for granted.
Last edited:
Is the winter up as bad as folks make it out to be?
I wonder for how much longer do these feckers plan to count House votes? It’s been a week since election day
Good write up on the election
Most of them want to retain their lucrative jobs going forward, Musk doesn't have that problem
Let's hope for their sake they are right because it doesn't really matter anymore what the price of eggs is if you have no job, no savings, and no investments.
It's by an Ivy League college (Dartmouth), which is actually just over the state border in NH. That has a lot to do with why the towns around here are blue. And people move up here from places like Boston and New York for the slower pace of life and lower density of population. This state used to be quite conservative but the influx of out-of-staters has changed the political landscape.
Dems strategy of only worrying about 7 states and shifting their desired voter demographic to professionals basically invites republicans onto their turf every 4 years and crossing their fingers that everyone else thinks the GOP is too extreme. As we have now found out, the concern over extremism has been heavily blunted as a reason to vote against the GOP. A lot of people don't care if they are extreme as the extremism is then targetted outside their "groups"
Does voting democrats actually made them better? I dont have time to actually survey which is what but maybe for them it's all the same.
If voting Democrats was the surefire good for economy it will be a no brainer
Plenty of supporting articles so I won't cite what is a laundry list of sources out there but its generally statistically true that the economy has performed better under Democratic presidents, as well as the National deficit going down, and the Dems are generally much more friendly to labor organizing efforts. That includes police as well.
Even now the economy has been doing very well when it comes to job and gdp growth etc. But people equate inflation to the strength of the economy. Better not tell them how much better the US economy has performed than most other nations in areas like the aforementioned factors, unemployment etc and yes - even inflation has come down much more drastically here than in most.
But people made up their minds and equate price of goods equals state of the economy. Id love to see what Trump can do to fix the housing crisis and boost wages for the average person - but like his tax cuts - everything he does is likely to primarily benefit one category of folks. Inflation will naturally drop over time as it already has and people will think its a miracle and as a sign of a strong economy. Meanwhile real income will continue to fall behind.
Last edited:
New ideas and proposals dropping left and right, first it was to force a judge to retire, to place a new one before Trump, next is for Biden to step down so Kamala can become new president so she...i would find that kinda insulting dunno.
"In almost every measure of the U.S. economy including total job growth, unemployment, economic growth, manufacturing job growth, manufacturing investment, small business creation, and contribution to the national debt, economic performance is stronger under Democrats."
https://www.jec.senate.gov/public/i...re of,performance is stronger under Democrats.