2024 U.S. Elections | Trump wins
- Thread starter Raoul
- Start date
Just one poll but…..
I've been watching 'Rise of the Nazis' on iPlayer (recommended btw) and one thing that struck me is how calculated, smart and effective those bastards were during their rise to power and going about dismantling an entire democratic system and taking down their rivals.
Trump is a moron surrounded by morons and yet it doesn't seem to be stopping him. I suppose it's reflective of the general state of the world. Stupidity conquers all.
Trump is a moron surrounded by morons and yet it doesn't seem to be stopping him. I suppose it's reflective of the general state of the world. Stupidity conquers all.
There is no way Trump is actually leading with young voters, no matter what some polls say.
Trump lost with young voters by a lot in 2020, so yeah, i'm not going to believe that he is sudennly winning over these people while getting indicted about every day.
Trump lost with young voters by a lot in 2020, so yeah, i'm not going to believe that he is sudennly winning over these people while getting indicted about every day.
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This. Absolutely this. There is not a U25 person in my life who is a Trump supporter, and that includes my niece whose parents are MAGA and who lives in a Trump +30 district. Talking with her she would estimate her school was like 60-70% on the pro Dem side. Obviously this is anecdotal, but I just can’t fathom it being an outlier.
There was a lot of "there's no way" in 2016.
And there were a lot of doomsday polls(for dems) in 2022, it did not materialize.
GOP hasn't really had a single convincing election since 2016, could 2024 be another 2016? I guess, but there is little to indicate that now.
Also, national polls this far out are little more than name recognition polls. They may ask “who would you vote for as President”, and are being interpreted as “whose name have you heard in the news more lately?”.
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Biden has had such an underwhelming first term that you have to say Trump has a chance, especially as his base is much more energised than Biden's. A long way to go yet though.
Nobody outside of California knows who Newsom is. Trump would crush him on name recognition alone. It's important to recognise how thick and uninformed the American electorate is and how big a role name recognition plays, most of Trump's political success has come from him being a well known television personality and celebrity.
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That may be the case, but after 2016 people should be more cautious about using "there's no way" when it comes to trump. We live in strange times.
I'm not saying "no way" to Trump having a chance of winning the electoral college, it was a response to a specific poll about young voters.
As it stated, Biden won that group by 17 points in 2020, now it is possible that he will get lower turnout next time, but a 20 or so point swing towards Trump won't happen, its impossible.
Many young folks make more jokes about biden's age than trump's general lunacy.
I think you're right and I hope you're right, it just wouldn't surprise me if the opposite happens.
I don't really get why people say Biden’s first term is underwhelming.
I tried to think what amazing achievements the likes of Trump, Obama, Bush got in their first terms.
My memory might be failing.
I tried to think what amazing achievements the likes of Trump, Obama, Bush got in their first terms.
My memory might be failing.
This is a ridiculous take. You either do not follow the news in the US, or you only follow right wing shit. From a policy perspective I would challenge you to name a president who has passed more meaningful and sweeping legislation since Johnson.
Bullshit. He may not be at Trump level of name ID, but DeSantis might be the only Gov with more.
What do you put in that context, as meaningful and sweeping. There is some to be had, just curious how you rank it.
Everyone knows who Newsom is. He's even been on Fox to debate Hannity, so Republicans are more than aware (nevermind he used to be married to Don Jr's girlfriend).
Underwhelming as in the country has struggled during his time in office. Not all his fault of course given that he came in during peak COVID and had to deal with wild economic gyrations related to the pandemic, inflation resulting from the Trump tax cuts, and the Afghanistan situation (again initiated by Trump), a border crisis and several other issues. So while there have been some positives, Biden will always carry the aforenoted issues as a political albatross around his neck.
Other than him passing more historic legislation that positively affects the country like infrastructure, domestic manufacturing, especially computer chips, the environment, inflation reduction, & veteran's healthcare (I'm forgetting a couple) than any president since the 1960s, then, yeah, he has been a little underwhelming.
Has it? Economy is growing, inflation is down, COVID is under control, unemployment is back to normal, the US is back again leading an international effort that is hurting its rivals and standing up to China without compromising a single soldier's life, and the 2022 election went considerably better than expected which has only become more patent with the chaos at the House.
I'd define it more as uninspiring than underwhelming, please tell me if i'm forgetting something important (maybe the border crisis, but that has been similar for like 60 years in a row now). I'd also add that historically US governments that don't feck up massively (and this can still happen BTW) tend to get reelected.
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If Biden wins, it won't be because of anything he's done, rather it will be for the same reasons as in 2020, to keep Trump out of office. Most voters know Biden won't have a Congress able to do much in terms of advancing his policies, so it will come down to to simple issue of protecting the country by keeping Trump out of power (notwithstanding the fact that there's a good chance he could be in jail by the end of next year).
That will most likely change once for all on November 30. If Newsom goes in full speed and destroys DeSantis in the unofficial debate on Fox News, all news media will be talking about him.
Was watching Bill Maher the other day, he sounded like he's been reading my rants on Biden
David Brooks / NYT seems to think Biden can lose to Trump next year
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/06/opinion/joe-biden-trump-election.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/06/opinion/joe-biden-trump-election.html
This was debated in the last page.
They boosted him in the first place, now they are shocked the leopard comes back to bite their faces.
Maher predicted that the GOP would sweep in the midterms, so what does he know?
He is a comedian, not a political expert.
He could be right, but there is also a lot of irony in that segment. He bemoans the "ubiquitous media picking apart every mistake", while doing exactly that. And for all his decades of faults, I think it's in poor taste to put a graphic over McConnell and laugh at his incidents.
While there definitely is a scenario, where Joe Biden loses to Trump, I don't think it's clear that a change in candidate leads to a slam dunk victory for the Democrats. And segments like this kind of just adds to the false equivalency between being old and somewhat senile (Biden) and 100% certifiably criminal, insane, and fascistic (Trump).
Debatable.
Bill Maher gives me the occasional Dennis Miller vibes these days.
Or Joe Rogan. My Trump loving FiL actually watches him and seems to think he s part of the anti woke crowd and just pretends to have some Democrat/progressive beliefs. Nowadays, I'm not sure he's wrong about that.
I stopped watching Maher when he turned into old man yelling at cloud.
Yep, that's what happened with Dennis Miller. Slowly but surely drifting from his lefty views in the 90s to being a stout neocon to being MAGA, all the while dropping the occasional progressive bread crumb to obfuscate his rightward drift.
Amazing that his political stance has its own Wikipedia page!
Amazing that his political stance has its own Wikipedia page!
You should read up on Miller's ex SNL co-star Victoria Jackson's political views.
Something about the name rings a bell for me, but I will do some research later today. Thanks!
feck McConnell, he deserves to be made fun of (and so do Pelosi, Trump, Biden etc).
Per your second point, I think Biden will get obliterated in the debates and while campaigning. David Brooks (NYT) makes the same argument in a more eloquent manner if you're curious (linked above).
He is neither