I see it differently - think Biden won not because of who he was, but rather who he was not. People had Trump fatigue and many independents (myself included) voted for Biden. In 2024 many indies might tune out if the choice is between two 80 year olds who appear to be corrupt (to varying degrees) and not all there. For a country nearing fiscal disaster it's seems irresponsible to have two 80 year olds run for office, given some of the hard choices that lay ahead.
- US government deficit in excess of $2 trillion this year
- Debt to GDP in excess of 130% - with a large portion (30%) rolling off next year and needing to be financed at higher rates. To put it into context, the interest expense on the debt is higher than the entire defense budget, which means that gov't will have to cut other programs just to service a more expensive and ballooning debt.
- Social Security & Medicare are insolvent – both trust fund reserves are projected to become exhausted by 2034 i.e., 11 years from now. That's not that far off.
Do we really think Trump or Biden are the best candidates to make some of the tough choices to right the ship? I just don't see it with either party - it's been a kick the can down the road approach, while running up huge deficits to appease the base. Trump added $8 trillion to the deficit in 8 years, Biden’s added $4 trillion so far, so I guess they’re consistent at running $1 trillion deficits annually.
I think the economy will play a huge role next year, and let's see where rates and inflation shake out in the next 6-months.