The tariff stuff is great because it really separates the wheat from the chaff. Turns out there are an awful lot of chaff-people.
2024 U.S. Elections | Trump wins
- Thread starter Raoul
- Start date
You do realize that when more Republicans vote early, it means there are less in their pool that can vote on the day? They only reason far more turned up on the day in 2020 is because Trump told them not to trust mail in or early voting, plus Republicans were less concerned about COVID.
Yes, the early vote and mail in numbers are up for Republicans, but how many "never Trump" registered republicans are in there? Far more than registered Dems voting for Trump, i would assume.
We also know registered independents skew younger, which favours Harris.
In the majority of highly rated swing state polls, it's a tie.
What is happening here is that Democrats are bed wetting because they fear Trump getting in, far more than Republicans fear Harris being elected.
Plus, Dems are scarred by the polling errors in 2016 and 2020 - yet the predictions of the 2022 "red wave" seem to have been forgotten? It is Democrats that are refreshing the polling average sites every 10 mins and getting worried about the odds on Polymarket.
The Trump team are projecting. They are making out they are leading because even if they lose, then they can claim a rigged election.
The Dems seem to want to scare people to the polls, by they thought of another 4 years (or longer) of Trump.
He will extend his Corporate tax rates that are due to expire in 2025 and he will impose tariffs, as they can be done with executive order.
Tariffs are not a vote winner. He is not gaining any support via this as every economist says they are inflationary, so not sure why you say its a stunt?
Fear based on lies. Every single one of those is outright false. It's crazy how people believe that.
Nah. Everyone I know that watched even a portion of the debate, which includes people that pay zero attention to polls, concluded that Biden had zero chance of winning. It was pretty clear to everyone that Biden's cognitive decline left him with no chance. You didn't need a poll to tell you that.
I'm definitely someone that doesn't trust polls the way the Dems do. Focus groups, Luntz style, tend to be a lot more revealing and actionable. Too much focus on every poll can lead to incorrect conclusions too many times.
You think you just fell out of a coconut tree?
I saw that too. She has to be perfect. He gets to do what he wants.
“They’re not sitting the same exam” was a really good line.
Is there any hope that a new Trump presidency will be like the first one, where he said a lot of radical things, but never really acted fully on them, probably because of the people around him keeping him on the leash?
Because his dickhead support thinks that he’s making importers pay America for imports and that makes goods cheaper for Americans. His voters are idiots.
I don't think it's worth focusing on every poll, especially since Trafalgar and others flood the area with utter trash...
But an average based on non-partisan polls (which 538, NYT, split ticket and others do generate) is a pretty good indicator, and tends to line up with more visible things like the disastrous debate. This average seems to suggest she has been stagnant since the convention.
The problem is that's all known now. Like having JD Vance instead of Pence. This time you only hire complete brown nosers and hardcore MAGA. Even all the Generals etc that talked him out of things. His comments about wanting Generals that do what he tells them too.
This time you get people who are on the same page with your criminality and lack of morals. And he would come in with his "immunity ruling from the SC. And not having to worry about running or campaigning again. It really should scare more people. Its not like his intentions are secret.
There's only so much a president can do. Trump would never deport millions of immigrants even if there are millions of illegal immigrants in there
The balance of power is still 50:50 it doesnt matter who's the president. Trump can make an order to seize, imprison and send them back but there will be officials that would have veto or object to it. Even if SCOTUS is leaning Republican i dont think they will sanction this sort of decision. Just like Trump can't dismantle Obamacare that easily because there's a lot of stakeholders from both parties involved
Which is why Jan 6 is still being prosecuted at the end of the day and the perp sent to jail, on the flip side even if we somehow magically have Mahatma Gandhi as president he wont openly invite Russia to Nato, there are generals, powerful lobby, and many other stakeholder that will make sure that doesnt happen
The polling and the EV data do reek of 2016 to me, all trending in Trump's direction. Lichtman's track record is the only hope but I feel that he's slightly off with his keys this year and should have given a couple more to Trump.
I meant he can’t completely eliminate personal income tax and replace them with tariffs, which is what he is eluding to.
By doing this he will run the country into the ground as his sycophants are all incompetent morons, but maybe that's what the US deserves for electing him again.
It's always funny reading things like this, considering that if he win's it's very likely that it will be because he won the electoral college, and not the popular vote... and even then, if he won the popular vote, you're still only getting around 30ish% of the vote of eligible voters.
Does not for me, i think it look quite alright in the rustbelt states, sunbelt states it look below par though.
Of course, if you compare to 2020, it will look poor, it's logical people switch back to how they voted before, like, VBM being down a lot compared to a pandemic year makes sense.
Yeah, that's what worries me, him having partnered up with people who are ready to do his bidding to the fullest. I would assume he is way better equipped to game the system this time around. It's just difficult to figure out if Trump actually plans to do the thing he says, or if he is just saying these things because his voter base loves it.
Yeah, hopefully the system is robust enough to keep his ambitions in check. I'm not worried about him inviting Putin into Nato, but certainly how his presidency will affect US - Europe/Nato relations. Putting the US in a bit more isolationist state of mind probably won't hurt the US, but i'm afraid of the effect it will have on Europe and the Ukraine war. Forcing Ukraine to the table and giving into Russia in a deal will certainly have some effects that will ripple through and could do a lot of damage i imagine.
Lots of rambling from me. But i really hope what we will see is more of the first term Trump and not the next level fascist one.
I've never heard him make that claim.
The thing with 2016 comparison is at this point back then, district level polls were painting a much different story to the rosy national and statewide pollings, meanwhile, district level pollings from NY this cycle, for instance, where supposedly Rs have made huge gains are showing D incumbents holding up just fine, and the seats they lost in 2022 are looking extremely robust. Similarly, district level polling in PA have consistently shown Ds making more inroads with college whites and holding up their margin in rurals, and even more importantly, Harris has had a VERY consistent 4 or 5 point leads in battleground RVs model, its only LVs that she seemingly struggle with and the only way that happens with is a R+3 or R+4 turnout model, which went against the Washington Primary predictor (D+2/3, which is consistent with topline national polling).
I may end up with eggs on my face here, but I'm confident enough to put a sizeable bet on Harris. The EV turnout patterns is remarkably similar to 2022, suggesting that Rs have changed their voting habit after pandemic 2020. In Georgia the biggest R counties are running 5 points ahead of the statewide turnout rate, while their population hasn't grown or even decreased, suggesting that while they are extremely motivated, they are cannibalising their Eday votes, and the gender gap is widening as early voting went on, from F +9 to F+11 as of this moment, and turnout as a whole is on course to surpass 2020 in the state. That suggests Ds have a lot of room to grow and as long as they turn out they will do even better than the 11.7k vote margin 4 years ago.
Im really not sure they do. Plus, he has those votes anyway.
Who is the voter out there that decides to vote on Trump for his stance on tariffs? There isnt one.
It is a random, long held belief that Trump has and they will be implemented as he wont have anyone there to tell him no.
Great post and data.
We need to see more of these district polls to get a better feel of the race. They tell a far more accurate story than national or even statewide polls.
There is panic when a statewide poll swings by one point, but often that can just be as little as 8 people in a sample of 800.
I don‘t think we should let them have another shot at destroying our freedoms (press, voting etc.). They are poised to do more damage this time around.
As it was, Trump did a lot of damage already. My projection is he‘d do a lot more than last time.
Yes, it might not be EC but in Spain, for example, least populated areas has 3 to 5 times more voting power than the most populated areas. And that happens in many other democracies
Can't draw too many conclusions from couple of days of early voting, but there is one "swing state" it's going badly, Florida, dems getting absolutely crushed in the early vote there so far, which is not at all surprising.
Its not really a swing state, but a lot of people have hope for it just because of ballot amendments, but that's not how this works.
I mean, you can hope for a lot of republicans voting for Harris, but I wouldn't count on that in Florida.
Its not really a swing state, but a lot of people have hope for it just because of ballot amendments, but that's not how this works.
I mean, you can hope for a lot of republicans voting for Harris, but I wouldn't count on that in Florida.
Elaborate why in a capitalist environment, if it is not sarcasm
I genuinely want to know if the bigoted idiots at Fox believe what they say and go around living like this or just act in front of the camera.
It's an act to further their own political agenda and make a killing at the same time. Maybe the latter is actually the primary motivation for them.
Many of the ones I know do.
It's comforting to see FOX doing DEI hires from the mentally challenged demographic.
Problem is that that message seems to work with a certain contingent. A lot of men who either for purely chauvinistic reasons or even religious reasons can't get themselves to vote for a woman. I'm no fan of Haley but look at how they treated her. Add to that women like Haley will then fall in line and crazies like Boebert and MTG openly cheering on a society that is solely dictated by men and you get a group of people who will always be afraid of their own shadow.
But she isn't running against Clinton offer Obama. She is running against Trump!
And many I know think half of what he says he won't do. Be it tariffs, deportation, tax policy or revoking licenses from TV networks. It is a crazy concepts to vote for a guy when you don't believe half of what he is saying!
The original poster said tariffs were a "stunt to get votes."
The point is that tariffs are not a vote winner.
They aren’t or they shouldn’t be? I honestly think a lot of voters perceive them to be ‘tough on China’ policy. Perhaps even independents with no understanding of economics.
You’re giving too much credit to some of the American people voting for Trump. To give you a sense of how stupid they are, they are so happy about being strong against China yet the bought the Trump bible that was made in China.
Majority of them don’t understand anything that’s going on nor can name one policy of his nor can give you one thing he accomplished in his four years. All they do they lap ip what he says, go home and regurgitate to others. Same cycle of rinse and repeat occurs.
They for sure ain’t going to have an idea on how the economics works. Same thing happened in this first term when he said Mexico was going to pay for the wall and they lapped that up too. You’re telling me that line - Mexico is going to pay for the wall - didn’t get him any votes?
Are you tellling the same thing isn’t going to happen with the tariff situation on imports and China?
Which state do you live in? How many have you met?