2024 U.S. Elections | Trump wins

Harris won’t win for obvious reasons but America should understand the impact of their choice
 
ManUtd1999 said:
I can’t imagine 4 more years of this…
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2016-20. Pandemic, capitol assault...good times.

On the bright side, we can adopt the legend of Nero's atitude playing the lyre while Rome burnt

We are going to suffer, but we will be entretained at least
 
Raoul said:
What are these obvious reasons ?
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I'm assuming he means it's because she's a woman of colour. Funny that it's come on a day where we've got data that she's doing better with white people than Biden though.
 
Blood Mage said:
I'm assuming he means it's because she's a woman of colour. Funny that it's come on a day where we've got data that she's doing better with white people than Biden though.
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I think it may have most to do with being a woman imo. The US is an incredibly masculinized country and we are in a situation where even the likes of some male black voters are gravitating towards Trump.
 
crappycraperson said:


Kamala better have some groundbreaking internal polls that suggest she can wean away Republican support from Trump..
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Inside the Harris campaign effort to turn red voters blue

Harris’s joint appearance with Longwell and Cheney is a sign that her campaign is taking seriously the prospect of being put in the White House by people who normally would have never pulled a lever for any candidate with a (D) next to their name.

According to a Harris campaign operative, it’s part of a deliberate strategy to juice turnout among the college-educated, reliable voters who once turned out in droves for the GOP. That’s why Harris and Cheney are set to campaign together across the “blue wall” states this week.

The campaign staffer pointed out that Democrats have performed well in low-turnout and off-year elections recently — areas the party never really excelled in — because of a shift among educated, suburban voters away from the Trump-era GOP.

While Trump’s campaign has been making constant — and often awkward — appeals to male and less-educated voters, including Black and Hispanic ones, Harris’s campaign is betting that Trump’s continued presence on the ballot is going to bring the more educated out for her in numbers that far exceed what Biden achieved four years ago.

“They’re pissed, they’re scared, they’re sick of Donald Trump — and they vote,” the operative said. “It’s not just the ‘Women’s March’ crowd anymore. It’s going to be more Republicans than you’ve seen vote for a Democrat in decades.”
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I know people are looking at the Harris campaign appealing to moderate republicans as stupid, but it’s a legitimate tactic and hopefully one that works. The GOP are now so far right that you could probably argue they’re not even conservative anymore and so appealing to that middle ground conservative base is probably a lot easier than it was 20 years ago.

We saw this recently in Australia with the rise of the “teal” conservative movement which is a group that is more moderate than the liberal party (Aus version of republicans) and it absolutely decimated the conservative movement in formally conservative strongholds.

This is where the US Democrat party can potentially change this election, particularly in places like Florida and Texas where they are becoming less conservative but are not quite ready to make that full jump. It’s like a comfort blanket to those people in so far as understanding that conservative ideals will be upheld, but not to the extent of absolute authoritarianism.
 
mariachi-19 said:
I know people are looking at the Harris campaign appealing to moderate republicans as stupid, but it’s a legitimate tactic and hopefully one that works. The GOP are now so far right that you could probably argue they’re not even conservative anymore and so appealing to that middle ground conservative base is probably a lot easier than it was 20 years ago.

We saw this recently in Australia with the rise of the “teal” conservative movement which is a group that is more moderate than the liberal party (Aus version of republicans) and it absolutely decimated the conservative movement in formally conservative strongholds.

This is where the US Democrat party can potentially change this election, particularly in places like Florida and Texas where they are becoming less conservative but are not quite ready to make that full jump. It’s like a comfort blanket to those people in so far as understanding that conservative ideals will be upheld, but not to the extent of absolute authoritarianism.
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I tend to not believe much in this strategy, but the GOP primaries showed there is definitely a sizable group of people within the party, that doesn't want Trump representing them, those that voted for Haley, not so much a vote for her, as it was a vote against MAGA, worth trying to sway some of them to vote for her, i suppose.

Now, i don't think Florida and Texas are the same, Florida is becoming more conservative with each election cycle, that is not the case with Texas, and, while i could get this one wrong, i expect Texas to be closer this time for dems than Florida will be, time will tell.
 
Jev said:
The problem with this kind of messaging is that it’s going to ring extremely hollow until the Harris campaign are ready to say the quiet part out loud: Yes, you were right, Joe Biden is too old and we were too late to realize, don’t make the same mistake we did. But noone wants to say that because they’re scared of hurting the old man’s feelings.
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Biden is too old; despite that, he accomplished a hell of a lot, with a republican house.

I think he could do another term because he’s competent, but we needed an energetic person to campaign.

Meanwhile Trump is soiling himself and completely out of it. Still the Republicans think it is fine he is their candidate.

I’m in favour of an age limit (67?) so we don’t end up in these situations.
 
mariachi-19 said:
We saw this recently in Australia with the rise of the “teal” conservative movement which is a group that is more moderate than the liberal party (Aus version of republicans) and it absolutely decimated the conservative movement in formally conservative strongholds.
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Always brings a smile to my face when another Liberal falls. I fecking hate the cnuts. Evil personified and they often don't even try to hide it or their despicable personalities.
 
NLunited said:
Biden is too old; despite that, he accomplished a hell of a lot, with a republican house.

I think he could do another term because he’s competent, but we needed an energetic person to campaign.

Meanwhile Trump is soiling himself and completely out of it. Still the Republicans think it is fine he is their candidate.

I’m in favour of an age limit (67?) so we don’t end up in these situations.
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He accomplished everything he did when he had a trifecta, the moment the GOP won the House it was back to full gridlock.

This is something Americans have cucked themselves with, this idea that divided government and partisanship is the height of virtue. Every single fecking thing of value of worth that was ever achieved legislatively in its history came under unified government. And no, Reagan working with D Congress, or Bill Clinton working with R Congress didn't manage a damn thing besides a whole lot of fiscal stuffs that ultimately didnt improve the material condition of the vulnerable and needy, just a continuous transfer of wealth to the 90 percentile of the country.
 
mariachi-19 said:
I know people are looking at the Harris campaign appealing to moderate republicans as stupid, but it’s a legitimate tactic and hopefully one that works. The GOP are now so far right that you could probably argue they’re not even conservative anymore and so appealing to that middle ground conservative base is probably a lot easier than it was 20 years ago.

We saw this recently in Australia with the rise of the “teal” conservative movement which is a group that is more moderate than the liberal party (Aus version of republicans) and it absolutely decimated the conservative movement in formally conservative strongholds.

This is where the US Democrat party can potentially change this election, particularly in places like Florida and Texas where they are becoming less conservative but are not quite ready to make that full jump. It’s like a comfort blanket to those people in so far as understanding that conservative ideals will be upheld, but not to the extent of absolute authoritarianism.
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I dont think it's that simple. Every sentences uttered is a plus min situation. Harris can say she wants to jail trump if win it'll be a plus here and minus there. There's no one policy that can guarantee you clean vote.

On the other hand extending the olive branch while looks generous and politically correct might tip the point for some.

Trump could and would have said PC stuff if it helps him getting elected. But his antics have served him well so far and moving away from that insanity would lost him votes. An election win and a close lose and another neck to neck. If i were Trump i wouldnt change a thing, it works.

Behind every speech and every interviews is a well analyzed and heavily scrutinized plus and minus by the campaign team. It might not work it might work but they sure as hell dont do it for the sake of it
 
InfiniteBoredom said:
He accomplished everything he did when he had a trifecta, the moment the GOP won the House it was back to full gridlock.

This is something Americans have cucked themselves with, this idea that divided government and partisanship is the height of virtue. Every single fecking thing of value of worth that was ever achieved legislatively in its history came under unified government. And no, Reagan working with D Congress, or Bill Clinton working with R Congress didn't manage a damn thing besides a whole lot of fiscal stuffs that ultimately didnt improve the material condition of the vulnerable and needy, just a continuous transfer of wealth to the 90 percentile of the country.
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Dems are going to miss Manchin when he is gone, no matter how much they shit on him, after all, its not his fault that dems were so bad at winning senate races they had to rely on him, a dem senator from a deep red state, to pass anything meaningful.

All the hate he got, he still gave dems some really big wins, at the end of the day.

Jim Justice and the one that will succeed him in the not so distant future(guy is in poor health) are not going to vote for anything.
 
Morty_ said:
Dems are going to miss Manchin when he is gone, no matter how much they shit on him, after all, its not his fault that dems were so bad at winning senate races they had to rely on him, a dem senator from a deep red state, to pass anything meaningful.

All the hate he got, he still gave dems some really big wins, at the end of the day.

Jim Justice and the one that will succeed him in the not so distant future(guy is in poor health) are not going to vote for anything.
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If they manage to hold it to 49 then they have a shot at retaking the Senate in 26 with Maine or NC, Ossoff will be vulnerable in GA in an off year though. Another bonkers scenario is if they help Murkowski get over the line in AK again and with a fresh term she can switch to Independent and caucus with them, even though its kind of a moon shot thing.

If they lose any other seat besides Tester and WV open and don't make up for it anywhere else, the Senate is gone for at least 10 years.
 
InfiniteBoredom said:
If they manage to hold it to 49 then they have a shot at retaking the Senate in 26 with Maine or NC, Ossoff will be vulnerable in GA in an off year though. Another bonkers scenario is if they help Murkowski get over the line in AK again and with a fresh term she can switch to Independent and caucus with them, even though its kind of a moon shot thing.

If they lose any other seat besides Tester and WV open and don't make up for it anywhere else, the Senate is gone for at least 10 years.
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I still don't trust Ohio to re-elect Brown, i really don't subscribe much to this split-ticket "thing" that polling suggests, recent elections don't back that up, race is a pure toss-up, imo.

The one exception to this, is Collins in 2020, she had no right to win that race, but did so anyway, and if she can win in a presidential year, well, lets just say this is one republican i would 100% accept Harris having in her administration.
 
Trump pretending to be a born again Christian now after saying on stage he isn't and has never been a Christian after the attack on him, and people somehow believing him, is symptomatic of the cognitive dissonance some people experience when it comes to him.
 
Laurencio said:
Trump pretending to be a born again Christian now after saying on stage he isn't and has never been a Christian after the attack on him, and people somehow believing him, is symptomatic of the cognitive dissonance some people experience when it comes to him.
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Evangelicals thinks he is more christian than Jesus, not a joke.
 
Morty_ said:
I still don't trust Ohio to re-elect Brown, i really don't subscribe much to this split-ticket "thing" that polling suggests, recent elections don't back that up, race is a pure toss-up, imo.

The one exception to this, is Collins in 2020, she had no right to win that race, but did so anyway, and if she can win in a presidential year, well, lets just say this is one republican i would 100% accept Harris having in her administration.
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Collins is 73, she will be 75 then, her approval is underwater and if you actually factor in the RCV in 2020 had she fell under 50, she would have won by 3.5 or 4 instead of 8.6. There's a pretty decent chance that she will retire. In fact, there's a more than zero chance Harris can sound her out with a plum job somewhere to vacate that seat early.

But as said, if they don't manage to limit the losses this election then the Senate is gone for a really long time. The 28 map looks brutal, 1 potential pick up (WI) vs 4 swing seats to defend (AZ, GA, PA, NV).
 
InfiniteBoredom said:
Collins is 73, she will be 75 then, her approval is underwater and if you actually factor in the RCV in 2020 had she fell under 50, she would have won by 3.5 or 4 instead of 8.6. There's a pretty decent chance that she will retire. In fact, there's a more than zero chance Harris can sound her out with a plum job somewhere to vacate that seat early.

But as said, if they don't manage to limit the losses this election then the Senate is gone for a really long time. The 28 map looks brutal, 1 potential pick up (WI) vs 4 swing seats to defend (AZ, GA, PA, NV).
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Still, a solid win in a presidential year, i doubt she will lose in 26, when there is no presidential ticket.

28 map isn't brutal, this year's map is brutal, in 28 there are no red states to hold, swing states with alright incumbents usually works out well.
 
Morty_ said:
Still, a solid win in a presidential year, i doubt she will lose in 26, when there is no presidential ticket.

28 map isn't brutal, this year's map is brutal, there are no red states to hold, swing states with alright incumbents usually works out well.
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That's a given, but depending on Brown's race, the Senate map in 2026 onwards might feature only 1 Senator from a state the opposite party won at Presidential election by >5 pts. So the new norms for brutal is how many swing seats you have to defend, the era of split ticket voting is over.
 
InfiniteBoredom said:
That's a given, but depending on Brown's race, the Senate map in 2026 onwards might feature only 1 Senator from a state the opposite party won at Presidential election by >5 pts. So the new norms for brutal is how many swing seats you have to defend, the era of split ticket voting is over.
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You have a point though, that the "good" senate maps for dems, 26(and i will argue 28 is at least okay) are neutral at best.

Dems have to hold every single swing-state, just to break even, while GOP can just coast on all of these rural states.

If dems gets a trifecta come November, self-preservation has to be key, DC statehood, level the playing field before its too late.
 
Yesterday, I listened to Trump's call to Raffensberger to try and change the election result in Georgia again, and some of Raffensberger's testimony in Congress about it.

I had kind of forgotten how egregious and wild it was. Anyone who has heard it and is still voting for Trump is, quite frankly, an idiot.
 
Mike Smalling said:
Yesterday, I listened to Trump's call to Raffensberger to try and change the election result in Georgia again, and some of Raffensberger's testimony in Congress about it.

I had kind of forgotten how egregious and wild it was. Anyone who has heard it and is still voting for Trump is, quite frankly, an idiot.
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That's what a lot of the J6 discourse missed, 99% is focused on the riot/Capitol breach, when it was just the final escalation in an insurrection attempt by defrauding the state with fraudulent election result. He tried to falsify the result of the election, when that failed, he unleashed his goons to cast doubt on the result by frivolous lawsuits and public statements and repeated recounts, when that also failed, he produced fraudulent slates of electors and pressured his vice president to certify those instead of the lawful, state legislature's certifed electors. Finally, when said vice president repeatedly refused to do it, he incited the mob to pressure him in a last ditch attempt and watched on TV for 3 hours as they assaulted the Capitol and forced lawmakers to run for their lives.

It's fecking banana republic stuff, the whole world looked at it in disbelief at somehow 47% of Americans who can be bother to vote are saying they want more of that. The American experiment has failed.
 
Mike Smalling said:
Yesterday, I listened to Trump's call to Raffensberger to try and change the election result in Georgia again, and some of Raffensberger's testimony in Congress about it.

I had kind of forgotten how egregious and wild it was. Anyone who has heard it and is still voting for Trump is, quite frankly, an idiot.
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I like the part where he drags out his words while shuffling some papers and proceeds to read out the exact number of votes he needs.
 
Trump is crushing it in Nevada. The Rust Belt plus NE02 is Harris' best path to victory right now unless she can pull off a surprise in Georgia.
 
Laurencio said:
I like the part where he drags out his words while shuffling some papers and proceeds to read out the exact number of votes he needs.
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I was just going over the full transcript, and there's some hilarious stuff in there, like this exchange:
Trump: ...and also that Dominion took out machines. That Dominion is really moving fast to get rid of their, uh, machinery.
Do you know anything about that? Because that’s illegal, right?
Germany: This is Ryan Germany. No, Dominion has not moved any machinery out of Fulton County.
Trump: But have they moved the inner parts of the machines and replaced them with other parts?
Germany: No.
Trump: Are you sure, Ryan?
Germany: I’m sure. I’m sure, Mr. President.
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Blood Mage said:
Trump is crushing it in Nevada. The Rust Belt plus NE02 is Harris' best path to victory right now unless she can pull off a surprise in Georgia.
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That’s always been the case though? I don’t think we have been expecting much from the Sun Belt. MI/GA, WI and PA or bust.
 
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