2024 U.S. Elections | Trump wins

InfiniteBoredom said:
Wait what the feck, it's happening again, he spoke for 15 minutes, then got silent and started wandering around the stage, now they have started playing music :lol:
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This is what I caught live yesterday, it was absolutely bizarre.

ABC, CBS, MSBNC newcasts lead today with the Politico story about 'exhaustion', CNN already waded in with the small crowd coverage. Definitely looks like the narrative is building up.
 
Jev said:
I don’t think anything we’ve seen these past few months suggests she wouldn’t have had a chance but no, she wouldn’t have been my favourite. That’s not the scenario we got, though, and given the circumstances I think the Dems played the best hand they had. Harris showed political nimbleness and maneuvering to shore up the party’s support (something that’s also part of being a good candidate) and has since run a solid campaign without any screw-ups along the way.
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I know but the initial post you were replying to was saying she's a meh candidate. Which I think most of us, especially externally, see quite clearly.

Most of the excitement seems to be that she's not trump (or Biden), as opposed to any amazing oration skills, policies or whatever on her part.

I don't think fine And meh are really that different.

As I said, much better than Trump. Which is all that really matters at this point. But it's just reminding me a bit of the vibes before Biden stepped down where some were really trying to convince others that everything was OK with Biden.
 
As others have pointed out - with the sheer amount of dollars the Harris campaign has, it should be able to get the 'new' message out there about the Trump decline. There's quite a good narrative there too imo - though a scary one for Harris in a way: Biden was visibly too old to be President - and now so is Trump.

If I were a Trump supporter and liked his policies, I'd still be terrified of what he's become in the last few weeks. He's clearly not all there, some of his responses to simple questions are absolute garbage.

I wonder the efficacy of starting to run ads that it's actually Harris vs. Vance, ie, do you want JD Vance as President?

Also, Trump was definitely sitting on a towel at Fox in his interview. How is that...erm...comfortable?
 
Ole'sgunnarwin said:
Redcafe's confidence in Harris winning reminds me of the confidence on here that Mason Mount fits the system.
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Huh. Most posters I've seen in this thread have been saying it's a coin toss. Some might give the slight edge to Harris others think Trump has an edge.
 
ManUtd1999 said:
And how does it help to feel down?

I personally don’t know if Trump is the favorite, just like I don’t know if Harris is.

Is Trump the favorite in MI, PA, WI, NV? According to Silver himself, not really. So, how is he the favorite to win the EC?

https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model
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This is the correct answer. As of today, it is basically a toin coss with perhaps a slight edge towards Trump in the models. However, if he’s not the clear favorite in WI, PA and MI he’s not the favorite for the EC… Harris doesn’t need NV either as long as she can hold the rust belt.
 
Tom Van Persie said:
This guy is a fecking disaster.

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And instead of everyone being behind the man asking for affordable medicine and healthcare all you can hear is people turning on him and agreeing when he's told he's not wanted there.

Despicable attitudes from selfish people who are probably against something that would benefit them and their families too. Is it because it's considered a Democrat idea or is it because they are raised with this personal responsibility, land of the free, everyone for themselves attitude?

The biggest irony is I bet they all consider themselves to be Christians. Jesus would be so proud.
 


From what I have seen Kamala is being praised for her Fox interview. It might turn out to have been a good move after all, especially in light of Trump's past week where he's clearly lost the plot on several occasions. Twice standing in silence and nodding along to music and repeatedly not answering direct questions to him from voters and Republicans. Also, a lot is being made of his narcissism and all answers he gives just bugging himself up and mainly backed up with lies.

His 'farmers love me, nobody did more for the farmers than me' comment has really upset a lot of people, especially when it was his tarrifs that fecked them in his first Presidency, causing him to have to get a $20 Billion bailout to help repair some of the damage his tarrifs caused. His recent John Deere comments haven't been forgotten either. It's just a shame the media aren't mentioning this.
 
langster said:
And instead of everyone being behind the man asking for affordable medicine and healthcare all you can hear is people turning on him and agreeing when he's told he's not wanted there.

Despicable attitudes from selfish people who are probably against something that would benefit them and their families too. Is it because it's considered a Democrat idea or is it because they are raised with this personal responsibility, land of the free, everyone for themselves attitude?

The biggest irony is I bet they all consider themselves to be Christians. Jesus would be so proud.
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To be honest I don't think most of his supporters know themselves why they are against it. Fortunately Robinson is going to get crushed next month and I'm hoping the walking disaster can impact Trump in NC too.
langster said:


From what I have seen Kamala is being praised for her Fox interview. It might turn out to have been a good move after all.
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Cuban is doing a tremendous job campaigning for Harris.
 
langster said:
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The problem with this kind of messaging is that it’s going to ring extremely hollow until the Harris campaign are ready to say the quiet part out loud: Yes, you were right, Joe Biden is too old and we were too late to realize, don’t make the same mistake we did. But noone wants to say that because they’re scared of hurting the old man’s feelings.
 
Jev said:
The problem with this kind of messaging is that it’s going to ring extremely hollow until the Harris campaign are ready to say: Yes, you were right, Joe Biden is too old and we were too late to realize, don’t make the same mistake we did. But noone wants to say that because they’re scared of hurting the old man’s feelings.
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I agree, but that comes back to the lack of truth and acceptance in politics. I respect someone fsr more if they own their faults and mistakes. Nobody is perfect or gets it right 100% of the time and that applies to politicians too.

However instead of owning something politicians have always avoided answering, deflected, changed topic, used whataboutism, anything to take accountability. Trump goes one further and outright lies or as he's done recently, rewrites history and makes out something that was bad or failed was actually a huge success. He never gets called on it either.

Sadly, honesty like this is rare in modern politics (and life tbh) and is seen as a sign of weakness.
 
People like to slag Silver off especially now that he's working for Peter Thiel but has he ever been wildly off with his model before?
 
langster said:
And instead of everyone being behind the man asking for affordable medicine and healthcare all you can hear is people turning on him and agreeing when he's told he's not wanted there.

Despicable attitudes from selfish people who are probably against something that would benefit them and their families too. Is it because it's considered a Democrat idea or is it because they are raised with this personal responsibility, land of the free, everyone for themselves attitude?

The biggest irony is I bet they all consider themselves to be Christians. Jesus would be so proud.
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This is the new America. I didn’t think this country was this way until the 2016 election.
 
Blood Mage said:
People like to slag Silver off especially now that he's working for Peter Thiel but has he ever been wildly off with his model before?
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He was quite off with Hillary, like everyone was (except Lichtman). He doesn’t need to be off this time round for Harris to win, though. Don’t get the hate personally.
 
langster said:


From what I have seen Kamala is being praised for her Fox interview. It might turn out to have been a good move after all, especially in light of Trump's past week where he's clearly lost the plot on several occasions. Twice standing in silence and nodding along to music and repeatedly not answering direct questions to him from voters and Republicans. Also, a lot is being made of his narcissism and all answers he gives just bugging himself up and mainly backed up with lies.

His 'farmers love me, nobody did more for the farmers than me' comment has really upset a lot of people, especially when it was his tarrifs that fecked them in his first Presidency, causing him to have to get a $20 Billion bailout to help repair some of the damage his tarrifs caused. His recent John Deere comments haven't been forgotten either. It's just a shame the media aren't mentioning this.
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Yeah, this thread (albeit I haven't paid too much attention to it) seems to hold the consensus that she did bad on the FOX news interview, yet everywhere else I've seen has had headlines of her doing well, the FOX host admitting that she did well etc. Bit of a strange reaction in here to the interview unless I've missed something.
 
flameinthesun said:
Yeah, this thread (albeit I haven't paid too much attention to it) seems to hold the consensus that she did bad on the FOX news interview, yet everywhere else I've seen has had headlines of her doing well, the FOX host admitting that she did well etc. Bit of a strange reaction in here to the interview unless I've missed something.
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You haven't missed anything except the fact anyone will always be held to higher standards than Trump. The misogyny from those who are voting for her simply because they hate Trump but despise the fact she's a woman, and a woman of colour but being a Democrat it's their only option. She's not the best candidate, not even close but compared to Trump it's like night and day.

I'm absolutely positive many are waiting for a 'deplorables' comment just so they can use that as an excuse to not support or vote for her. Deep down half of the US is still incredibly sexist and misogynistic and absolutely do not want a woman anywhere near the Oval Office. Feck, even Trumps VP running mate thinks women should be at home making babies and not even working, let alone becoming President of their country.
 
Jev said:
The problem with this kind of messaging is that it’s going to ring extremely hollow until the Harris campaign are ready to say the quiet part out loud: Yes, you were right, Joe Biden is too old and we were too late to realize, don’t make the same mistake we did. But noone wants to say that because they’re scared of hurting the old man’s feelings.
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How does this matter at all?
 
Beachryan said:
As others have pointed out - with the sheer amount of dollars the Harris campaign has, it should be able to get the 'new' message out there about the Trump decline. There's quite a good narrative there too imo - though a scary one for Harris in a way: Biden was visibly too old to be President - and now so is Trump.

If I were a Trump supporter and liked his policies, I'd still be terrified of what he's become in the last few weeks. He's clearly not all there, some of his responses to simple questions are absolute garbage.

I wonder the efficacy of starting to run ads that it's actually Harris vs. Vance, ie, do you want JD Vance as President?

Also, Trump was definitely sitting on a towel at Fox in his interview. How is that...erm...comfortable?
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There is a big difference thought with MAGA supporters and Democrats. Dems don't worship a candidate. That was expressly shown with how the Biden situation was handled. Even at that late period in the race after the debate there were Dem calls for him to step down. And he obviously did. There will be nothing similar for trump. It isn't like this has come out of nowhere. They had plenty of opportunities to dump him. Hes a convicted felon ffs.

Another example of the "both sides" narrative being bs. At most you can say Dems should have called for Biden to be one term earlier. But, by any metric other than popularity, and age(health) he deserved a second so it had to be his choice.

As for the money Kamala raised and the sheer amount of ground game, ad buys I can't clearly say anything bad about the campaign. No she's no world class inspiring orator. She doesnt even have the baggage Hilary had no matter how trite it was, emails, Benghazi silliness.

One of MAGA mottos is be a complete hipocrite at every opportunity. They tout trump as a strongman, hes fighting for them. If ANY Democrat just stopped taking questions, swayed on stage for nearly 40 minutes with a playlist of music that 70% of the actual artists have sent cease and desist orders because they cant stand him. They would be out of the race.

There is NO WAY Kamala could have gotten away with that. Yet here we are trump cancels interview after interview. He says no to debates after being crushed. No backlash from his supporters.
 
RDCR07 said:
How does this matter at all?
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Because it comes off as hypocritical and opens them up to a relevant question about Biden that they’ll then dodge, making it appear like they are just playing politics rather raising a legitimate concern.
 
flameinthesun said:
Yeah, this thread (albeit I haven't paid too much attention to it) seems to hold the consensus that she did bad on the FOX news interview, yet everywhere else I've seen has had headlines of her doing well, the FOX host admitting that she did well etc. Bit of a strange reaction in here to the interview unless I've missed something.
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Correct.
I didn’t watch the interview when it first aired on Fox. Then I watched clips of it (first the one about immigration, then others), and I found the initial reaction here completely unfounded and not representative of what had actually transpired.
 
ManUtd1999 said:
Correct.
I didn’t watch the interview when it first aired on Fox. Then I watched clips of it (first the one about immigration, then others), and I found the initial reaction here completely unfounded and not representative of what had actually transpired.
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I agree. I think things even looked better the next day when Brett Bair was forced to admit on air she was right about the clip he tried to ambush her with and it wasn't "what he wanted to show". I think His reputation took a hit as a professional honestly. There have been plenty of his peers that previously gave him credit as one of the rare news guys on that network. He tanked that smidgen of credibility.
 
Jev said:
Because it comes off as hypocritical and opens them up to a relevant question about Biden that they’ll then dodge, making it appear like they are just playing politics rather raising a legitimate concern.
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This is what you’re complaining about? Why do the dems on every single issue face more scrutiny than the other side? They literally have a walking talking racist, dictator, sexual harasser annd someone who wants to overthrow the govt and democracy and you worried that the dems are hypocritical cause replaced an old man? If anything they can use old man jokes cause they actually replaced their guy. They couldn’t use old man jokes against Trump if Biden was still running.
 
Jev said:
He’s not but Theil is the biggest investor in Polymarket.
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Hold on… Nate silver is involved with Polymarket? And people don’t see that as a massive conflict of interest where he’ll rig his polls to be Trump biased?

That pretty much just destroys any credibility he has left after his last 4 shit show performances on elections. He’s literally been wrong every election since Obamas victories
 
RDCR07 said:
This is what you’re complaining about? Why do the dems on every single issue face more scrutiny than the other side? They literally have a walking talking racist, dictator, sexual harasser annd someone who wants to overthrow the govt and democracy and you worried that the dems are hypocritical cause replaced an old man? If anything they can use old man jokes cause they actually replaced their guy. They couldn’t use old man jokes against Trump if Biden was still running.
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I’m not complaining? I’m desperate for Harris to win and I think this might be a winning massage if the Dems were willing to be frank about the Biden aspect. When they’re dodging the other side of the coin, I think it undermines the message. I’m talking about strategy, not morals.
 
mariachi-19 said:
Hold on… Nate silver is involved with Polymarket? And people don’t see that as a massive conflict of interest where he’ll rig his polls to be Trump biased?

That pretty much just destroys any credibility he has left after his last 4 shit show performances on elections. He’s literally been wrong every election since Obamas victories
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He's an advisor at Polymarket which isn't an issue. The trouble with Silver isn't Silver, its the attention seeking critics who spend weird amounts of time attacking him because his model doesn't spit out numbers that favor their candidates. This is usually Democrats these days who can't seem to get over the idea that stats don't care about your feelings.
 
Jev said:
The problem with this kind of messaging is that it’s going to ring extremely hollow until the Harris campaign are ready to say the quiet part out loud: Yes, you were right, Joe Biden is too old and we were too late to realize, don’t make the same mistake we did. But noone wants to say that because they’re scared of hurting the old man’s feelings.
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If Biden cared about America he’d have it in him to do that himself. What possible cost is there to actually saying “It’s a shame. I didn’t realise I didn’t have the energy levels to campaign and run a country at the same time. As with recent bill blah blah blah, we are making American lives better. But I realised with the support of the party that I didn’t have enough left to ask you to vote for me again”

Just let Kamala call you old for 3 weeks. Who cares? It’d be a huge act and free Democrats to go hard at Trump.

It won’t happen, but it’s close to zero cost.
 
Hamnat said:
I agree. I think things even looked better the next day when Brett Bair was forced to admit on air she was right about the clip he tried to ambush her with and it wasn't "what he wanted to show". I think His reputation took a hit as a professional honestly. There have been plenty of his peers that previously gave him credit as one of the rare news guys on that network. He tanked that smidgen of credibility.
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Agree about Baier. I always viewed him more favorably than Hannity, Carlson and others at Fox (albeit the bar is low). Unfortunately, he went too far here and damaged his relatively reasonable reputation (for a Fox News figure). Good on him to admit it, though.

Harris got what she needed from the interview, and Cuban articulated that well in his above-referenced tweet.
 
Raoul said:
He's an advisor at Polymarket which isn't an issue. The trouble with Silver isn't Silver, its the attention seeking critics who spend weird amounts of time attacking him because his model doesn't spit out numbers that favor their candidates. This is usually Democrats these days who can't seem to get over the idea that stats don't care about your feelings.
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Stats didn’t care about Silver’s feelings either when they made him look like a mug in 2022 ABC kicked him out.

He pegged his model to other forecasters so hard based on his punditry that the moment Ralston called CCM would win Nevada, Cook Political Report moved PA Senate to Lean R and his model also did the same, giving Oz 57% chance to win. He got undue flaks for 2016 but his work ever since has been questionable, to say the least.
 
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