He was merrily considering hillary as winner and went to shit
If he was/ wasn't the problem in 2016 he is not / is now. You cant have it both
Is not doom and gloom. Is reality that we dont lkke that is Trump is favourite
2024 U.S. Elections | Trump wins
- Thread starter Raoul
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He was merrily considering hillary as winner and went to shit
If he was/ wasn't the problem in 2016 he is not / is now. You cant have it both
Is not doom and gloom. Is reality that we dont lkke that is Trump is favourite
And how does it help to feel down?
I personally don’t know if Trump is the favorite, just like I don’t know if Harris is.
Is Trump the favorite in MI, PA, WI, NV? According to Silver himself, not really. So, how is he the favorite to win the EC?
https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model
He would be favorite, if republican early numbers out of the rustbelt states looked good, but they don't really, not at this point.
You can counter with saying early numbers don't mean much, well, they sure count more than republican sponsored polls showing Trump up in Michigan.
Saw quite a few billboards for Harris as I passed through five states the last few days (ND, MN, WI, IL and MI). Also a few whose purpose was to remind others how bad Trump was.
Not a lot of signs for either candidate but I suppose that's not too surprising along the interstates.
Two vehicles with Trump bumper stickers, though, both older white men. None for Harris.
Not a lot of signs for either candidate but I suppose that's not too surprising along the interstates.
Two vehicles with Trump bumper stickers, though, both older white men. None for Harris.
Dominion are getting another huge payout arent they?
Dominion are getting another huge payout arent they?
Not if these feckers succeed this time.
Really feels like America is sleepwalking into a complete shitshow. I at least hope that adequate protections have been put into place behind the scenes.
Some interesting interview with Tom Bonier about early voting:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=JfTbniOXbRc
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=JfTbniOXbRc
The 1,889 pages of criminal evidence released today on the Jan 6 case is here if anyone cares, its the files under document 266.
https://www.courtlistener.com/docke...d_before=&entry_gte=&entry_lte=&order_by=desc
News media is dead basically, so trawl through it yourself, or the r/law sub is probably best bet for info.
https://www.courtlistener.com/docke...d_before=&entry_gte=&entry_lte=&order_by=desc
News media is dead basically, so trawl through it yourself, or the r/law sub is probably best bet for info.
America post June 2015 is not the same country. And won’t be anytime soon.
And how does it feel living in denial? Right now I have a proper formed opinion as I usually check averages and apply my biases. And I prefer to do it a few days before the elections. So for now my opinion is based on a few polls flying bye and other's people's opinion.
So if I would check now, maybe I would change it, but going for the little information that I see flying by, doesn't seem that Harris is favourite
you might be right. Next 3 weeks will be a YUGE amount of data dumped here and there. I rather prefer lose my time closer to the elections as things might change substantially. Right now I think is very convoluted but I think Trump has the edge. At least the situation is miles better than with Biden
Yep it's why I wanted Biden to drop out months before he did. Not only was enthusiasm down in the Democrat voting base but also struggling badly with independents and moderate republicans. Harris' campaign have been doing a good job in targeting those voters. It's obvious from listening to David Plouffe and other Dem strategists that they believe it's her key to winning the battleground states.
I don’t live in denial.
As I said, I don’t know if Trump is the favorite just like I don’t know if Harris is the favorite. The numbers don’t show a clear picture.
Harris can win, but can also lose. Trump can lose, but can also win. I fully recognize this and can’t deny it.
So, TRUMP CAN WIN, and I will NOT be surprised if he does.
'Sakes. I arrive here as a respite from the Eth thread where every tweet causes a meltdown only to find bizarre freak outs based on which one of Nate Silver's bollocks tingled that morning.
Hard to argue with, reasoned, well thought out logic like this.
According to the model of Silver, Trump has a 50.2% of winning. According to 538, Harris has a 52% chance of winning. Hence, both models are basically 50-50.
But then people here assume that Trump is the favorite because Silver said so. The reality is that there is no clear evidence that either candidate is the favorite. I said the same when Harris was leading by 5-8 points in both models.
Anytime the candidate with small numbers has 40% or more, let alone 45% or more, it’s a 50-50 race and anyone can win.
Everything points to a toss-up, and that has been the case since several weeks after Biden dropped out.
Obama is about to speak in Arizona
Is that because a. They fecked up at the last two elections that they have gone so far the other way or b. because it helps foot traffic on websites and thus making it seem close boosts clicks. In reality this shouldn’t be close even by virtue of the apparent lack of visible support for Trump.
The early vote in Georgia is.... interesting.
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/2024-general-election-early-vote-georgia/
It hasn't been updated for today but based on the GA SOS site 1.1m have already voted today, or 20% of the 2020 total, after 4 days of voting.
Gleaning the data we do have, however:
As has already been said multiple times before, you cant read too much into the early vote, and depending on your disposition or political affiliation, you can draw different inference from the same set of data, but if a) the gender gap holds throughout and b) Democratic counties get their turnout to parity with the rest of the state, then this might turn out to be much better than we thought. I was pretty bearish on GA this cycle due to the MAGA State Board of Election shenanigans but these signs are quietly encouraging.
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/2024-general-election-early-vote-georgia/
It hasn't been updated for today but based on the GA SOS site 1.1m have already voted today, or 20% of the 2020 total, after 4 days of voting.
Gleaning the data we do have, however:
- The gender gap is ENORMOUS, a whopping 10% in favour of women
- White share of the electorate is just shy of 60% and black share at 27.8%, the common wisdom is if you want to win Georgia as a Democrat you need to keep the white share at or below 60 and black at 30, which brings us to our next point
- A lot of the turnout came from red counties, and they are already at 30, 40% of their total registered voters, which means a lot of cannibalisation of EDay vote for Republicans. Meanwhile, a lot of deep blue or majority black county like Fulton, Clayton, Dekalb, Gwinneth are lagging behind, most of them below 10%, so there are two ways to read into this, either Democrats are cooked because their primary vote banks in these counties are not enthusiastic, or there are a lot more they can tap into with Souls to the Poll (there will be 2 Sundays this year), and it means they can very feasibly reach that 30% threshold.
- Despite the much vaunted Bros for Trump narrative, youth turnout is very flat with 18-25 at 4.4%.
As has already been said multiple times before, you cant read too much into the early vote, and depending on your disposition or political affiliation, you can draw different inference from the same set of data, but if a) the gender gap holds throughout and b) Democratic counties get their turnout to parity with the rest of the state, then this might turn out to be much better than we thought. I was pretty bearish on GA this cycle due to the MAGA State Board of Election shenanigans but these signs are quietly encouraging.
Thank you for the summary. There are some good signs for Harris, particularly the gender gap, but I’m not feeling as good about GA as I’m about PA (based on the early voting only— not polls or Silver). However, GA just started voting, and it would be interesting to see how this goes next week and beyond.
In general, early voting looks good for Harris. By the way, in the link that I shared here, Tom Bonier talks about registration and it looks good too for the Dems.
Polls can’t measure who is going to vote.
something is not passing the sniff test about this election and it’s not fraud… it’s the apparent position of either party. This won’t be close. Either Trump or Kamala landslide but won’t be close.
100% the closer we get to the election the media will blow up about trumps cognitive ability. They’ve just been trying to exploit the shit out of the race and will do as long as they can.
100% the closer we get to the election the media will blow up about trumps cognitive ability. They’ve just been trying to exploit the shit out of the race and will do as long as they can.
I watched that video. In general I take those information into account but people like Bonier, Rosenberg, the Obama bros Pod Save America crowd etc are all partisans, so whatever they say have to be taken with a massive pinch of salt. In Bonier's case, his registration model shows Democrats outregistering Republicans by what, 10 points, while most publicly available data show the opposite (granted, he takes into account independent leaners, but we dont have access to the sauce/code). He might well turn out to be right, but it's good to remain skeptical even if the information is what we want to hear.
Granted, none of the ET data analysis accounts being shared in this thread is from the GOP side, so theres already an inherent bias, but then again the MAGA accounts are like 'Virginia got much redder today', 'Republicans SMASHED it in Pennsylvania today' etc, so we can hardly get an analytical look from the other side perspective, which makes being clearsighted about this even more important.
It might be like 2020 where you look at the electoral vote and somebody has won 300+ but I expect every battleground state to be close either way. I can easily see states being won by less than a point.
Obama is terrific. He still gets me fired up to this day. Fantastic public speaker.
"Mr tough guy on China except when he can make a few bucks."
"Mr tough guy on China except when he can make a few bucks."
The word landslide shouldn't be used, at best you can call the 2008 a landslide, but landslide doesn't happen anymore, may in the future, not anytime soon though.
Can't even fill a rally, sad!
Wait what the feck, it's happening again, he spoke for 15 minutes, then got silent and started wandering around the stage, now they have started playing music
I’m not reading the rest of your posts/conversation but this is exactly what someone in denial would say
In a normal country this would be then end of this election as a competitive race. How do you not do the most basic of homework on the Farm Bill if you are running for Senate in WI????
Baldwin gave a detailed answer, because she’s actually interested in helping all her constituents.
Baldwin gave a detailed answer, because she’s actually interested in helping all her constituents.
That is insane. Honestly running for senate anywhere, nevermind Wisconsin!
smart
538 has now shifted to Trump
How the hell is this election still a toss up after Kamala raised over a billion? Where are the $$ going? Why is it not moving her to clear favorite?
Redcafe's confidence in Harris winning reminds me of the confidence on here that Mason Mount fits the system.
The polls are saying he'll win, so all tools that use the polls will do so too.
The only hope we have is that the polls are biased or wrong.
I'm now pretty sure we'll get to live in a Vance presidency- the least popular figure in US political history will be the head of it. Love the GOP, they're the bestest.
He'll probably help tackle American's obesity crisis by shutting down Krispy Kremes and making donuts illegal for what they did to him, that's a plus point I guess