If that’s the argument then they shouldn’t be voting for Trump either cause it’s not he is supporting Palestinians.
2024 U.S. Elections | Trump wins
- Thread starter Raoul
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If that’s the argument then they shouldn’t be voting for Trump either cause it’s not he is supporting Palestinians.
This man is senile.
Senile is a kind word haha.
From what I've seen this risible, cigarette paper distinguishing between two sides of the same genocidal coin is having no purchase. We want, expect and demand Arab, Muslim, Palestinian America's to support the woman and party in power who have been Politically responsible and vocally supportive of policies that have directly lead to the mass killing and starvation of their relatives, of their people. Because we think the next guy is worse. What a sick attitude.
Hospital patients set on fire and left to burn alive in their beds by Israel, supported by Kamala.
Children with sniper bullets in their brains put there by Israeli soldiers, supported by Kamala.
Children mutilated by Israel and supported by Kamala.
Babies beheaded by Israel and supported by Kamala.
Sexual violence and humiliation enacted by Israeli soldiers, supported by Kamala.
An extermination campaign supported by Kamala.
Joe Biden will soon be dead, he can take it with him to hell. Kamala Harris will have to wear it out here in the open for all to see, for the rest of her life. And sure in polite liberal circles no one will mention the stains but there are people out here who won't forget.
No Palestinian, Muslim, Arab American who votes for Trump did this. Israel did it, the US state apparatus did it, Joe Biden did it, Kamala Harris did it.
Excuse the exaggerated outrage but feck Kamala Harris for her involvement in this genocide and feck her dogshit campaign.
Think you’re missing the point. No candidate in America will go against Israel meaning these people can’t vote for anyone if that’s their criteria.
According to census 242k Muslims total are in Michigan, 130k voted in the 2020 election.
There was always an element of wishcasting with that. Trump has never been more popular as far as his approval rating goes (between -9 to -11 according to polls throughout this year, was -12 in 2020), so at worst his support remains stable.
That said, I think it's true that he has a hard ceiling of about 47% in the popular vote, he has also only hit 50% in a swing state exactly once in his 2 elections, the problem is if enough left leaning people stay home that pool of voters is enough to carry him to the win, and fundamentally this is an election that the macros aren't favourable to the Democratic coalition with a near historically unpopular incumbent and most of the electorate thinking country in the wrong direction and desiring change.
My guess is that if Harris gets remotely close to 2020 turnout she wins, Trump's cult is big, but i don't think he has gotten anyone new, in terms of absolute numbers, i'd say he has lost a fair few overall.
Why is it so important to go "but Trump" every time someone makes a point about Harris? Most of the time (actually always) they're not even saying they'll vote Trump. But Harris isn't entitled to anyone's vote either way.
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Guys I do struggle to understand the US system. Whom do you think is going to win? I hope that harris wins
My main point is that telling people who have lost so much who they should or should not be voting for, particularly when it benefits those who are directly responsible for that which has been lost, is not something that I agree with doing. The calculation is not lost on most of them. Whether their position is logically consistent, pragmatic, less optimal in the longterm etc. is moot.
The second point is feck Kamala Harris, just because.
It's basically a coin toss right now. If Harris wins Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania (+ NE-2, but I take that for granted) and none of the "safe" states goes to shit, then she's home and dry.
Thanks
Harris winning Pennsylvania would be quite an achievement with Musk's interference there. The numbers look good so far but I'm not convinced she can pull it off.
The idiot is getting defrauded by his canvassers.
One of the pretty likely Doomsday scenario that would make the 'Shapiro should've been VP' Cafites spontaneously combust is if Harris wins PA quite comfortably (2% +) and drops Wisconsin by similar margin.
If some of these posters would be honest, they'd just say they really hope that Gaza costs Harris the election, as a punishment. That's all a lot of this is. Completely agnostic of what a Trump victory means.
Yes, excluded non Muslim, arab votes.
Many liberals and Democrats have said that they agree with me that Israel/Gaza is a terrible thing, but that the priority right now is defeating Donald Trump, which is an even more terrible thing. So Trump must be defeated first; the rest can be dealt with later.
So keeping that in mind, I am looking forward to Harris winning the presidency, as this would defeat Donald Trump, likely permanently.
After that, I am looking forward to seeing liberals and Democrats' efforts to bring justice and accountability to the perpetrators of this terrible thing: the Biden administration. I would expect a strong campaign to push for Congressional investigations on various figures in the Biden administration, including himself, trials, convictions (if they are guilty
). If elected officials are not complying, perhaps even an attempt to withhold votes for the 2026 midterms (when Donald Trump will no longer be on the ballot) in order to force their hand. I am looking forward to see what liberalism can 'cook' after they've defeated Donald Trump.
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I don't disagree with much of that. Obviously a Harris win followed the next hour by a policy change would be wonderful.Many liberals and Democrats have said that they agree with me that Israel/Gaza is a terrible thing, but that the priority right now is defeating Donald Trump, which is an even more terrible thing. So Trump must be defeated first; the rest can be dealt with later.
So keeping that in mind, I am looking forward to Harris winning the presidency, as this would defeat Donald Trump, likely permanently.
After that, I am looking forward to seeing liberals and Democrats' efforts to bring justice and accountability to the perpetrators of this terrible thing: the Biden administration. I would expect a strong campaign to push for Congressional investigations on various figures in the Biden administration, including himself, trials, convictions (if they are guilty
He wasn’t very off considering that he gave to Trump over 1/3 chance of winning, while pretty much everybody else was giving Trump no chance.
Jesus Christ. I mostly hate these little voxpop stitch ups. But the stupidity of Trump voters is astounding.
Trump was at 29 percent in the 538 model in 2016 but it’s true they gave him a better chance than others did.
It's used interchangably by most reports.
https://www.statista.com/statistics...c depicts the U.S.,ancestry living in the U.S.
There are, of course, other surveys showing a population surveys showing figure closer to 450-500k, but when you account for non-voters(age, criminal record, registration status, citizenship) It's hard to see how you reach the figure of 300k Muslim or Arab voters in Michigan, it's not born out by the data.
I think some of them think by handing Trump a victory they can move the Democrats further left in time for 2028. Problem is there might not be another election after this the way things are going.
I think the issue with Silver is just a gap between what he can deliver and what people actually want.
What people want is certainty. They want him to find the winner of the election within the data, by discarding all that does not matter. That is what he was perceived to deliver in 2008 and 2012 (whether he actually did that or not is a different matter). But in 2016 and 2020 he could not deliver on that. He gave Trump better chances because he accounted for uncertainty, but that's not what people want. People don't want to hear that the polls could be wrong. They want to know if they are right or wrong. They don't want odds.
Silver can argue that this is beyond the scope of his or any model, and he wouldn't be wrong. But it's just not what most people really want.
Remember that he became popular in 2008 in a context of endless horse race punditry. The premise behind his modeling is that the straight, simple answer was right there, if you only looked at it with rigor and discipline.
Exactly right. Not to mention that SCOTUS would be completely gone as Trump/GOP would quite likely convince Thomas and Alito to step down and be replaced by younger judges.
It already is completely gone, for decades.
The problem with Silver is his punditry. He was perfectly fine as just a guy with a model, but he wanted to be more. It's hard to say what he is now, he's much less prominent after leaving 538.
Thomas is 76, Alito is 74, Roberts is 70. There’s a decent shot that if Harris wins and manages 2 terms, she can replace one of them. Failing that, Sotomayor is 70, if you can replace her for one in their 50s, that would count for something as well, looking at Barrett and Kavanaugh.
A Liberal majority of 5-4 is a hell of a lot better than 6-3 of today. Given the ages of Thomas and Alito it is not completely out of the realm of possibility that one or both of them dies of old age during the next four to eight years - would be pretty neat to have Dem President in that case. Wealthy people obviously live longer than the average person, but with a little bit of luck it can happen. Which is why the GOP will be desperate to replace them if they win back the Presidency.
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If she is reelected it actually *is* possible that all three of those fecks off - which makes it 6-3 the other way
Nah noway they give up the majority in 8 years, the average retirement age for SC justices is like 82.
Not very likely, but it's not like it's unheard of that people die in their late 70s. The point is that the SCOTUS is hardly a lost case - YET.
Good start for Trump in Nevada apparently, outpacing his 2020 early vote numbers, not sure if Clark county numbers have been reported yet though.
Trump being old or going senile won't hurt him. Whether he makes sense or not is completely irrelevant to him or hks base. And neither is assaulting people are being a criminal.
It's actually almost brilljant how they've somehow created a teflon monster out of a complete and utter moron without any competences whatsoever.
It's actually almost brilljant how they've somehow created a teflon monster out of a complete and utter moron without any competences whatsoever.
They worship him because he's cruel to the types of people they resent, and because he drives Dems crazy. They know he's useless but he makes the people they hate miserable and that's all that matters.
No, no mail from Clark yet. They start reporting today.
Washoe county is the bellwether. So far looking good for Harris, but very early.
Also: expect Republicans to dominate in-person voting, and Democrats to dominate voting by mail. That’s typically the pattern there.