2024 U.S. Elections | Trump wins

Nogbadthebad said:
I haven't been keeping up with the day to day of it all, but I just spent half an hour on social media while eating lunch, and the clips of him struggling are strikingly similar to those of biden.

That will stick. It did with biden despite the media underplaying how bad he was. Everyone has seen a relative go through that decline, they know what it looks like whatever people claim.
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The right wing filter that half the country sees, wont show it to them.

They don't show his crazy. They show his rally or speeches on delay and cut back to the presenters when he starts talking about electrocuted sharks, Hannibal Lecter, windmills causing cancer and solar panels that don't allow you to watch TV when the sun goes down!
 
B. Munich said:
As I probably started this discussion about inflation, let me clarify what I meant.

My main point was how can many Americans believe it was the Biden administration that caused inflation. That's just utter nonsense.

All your points are valid and contributed to the raise of inflation.
I highlighted Trump's poor managing of the pandemic to be one reason. The stimulus packages, which weren't needed (except for the poor) and were mainly a distraction from his failures in handling the crisis, contributed further to the raise of inflation.
If you already a supply deficit then you don't increase demand by any means.
Did it play a major role? I don't know, probably not.
Again my point was to highlight that Trump takes more responsibility in causing inflation than Biden.

But still he gets away with his lies that it was Biden who caused the inflation. Worse there enough stupid people who believe this nonsense.
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The way unemployment skyrocketed in several sectors (like restaurant, hotel, travel, leisure related) influences how a stimulus affects demand too. There are generally two types of people when unemployment (permanent or especially temporary) hits, the type that spends the same and the type that adjusts spending downward. Because hand-to-mouth consumers adjust spending downward when unemployed, a stimulus combined with high unemployment will have far less impact on aggregate demand. Because of these specific circumstances, the stimulus wouldn't have boosted the demand the way it would have in normal times if government just handed out checks. A lot of the stimulus, even in middle class, was just used to cover cost of living like rent, mortgage, insurance, etc so the stimulus didn't really increase aggregate demand the way it might have in normal times. Well-to-do individuals also didn't typically change their spending patterns to affect demand again because it was a pandemic, not just a stimulus in normal times. I personally don't blame either President for inflation, as per my earlier post, but I totally get what you're saying.
 
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The father of IVF ...... So much wrong with that :lol:

* I absolutely guarantee he hasn't got a clue what IVF stands for as if you watch each time he mentions it he only says the word fertilisation.
 
langster said:



The father of IVF ...... So much wrong with that :lol:

* I absolutely guarantee he hasn't got a clue what IVF stands for as if you watch each time he mentions it he only says the word fertilisation.
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Wait, I thought the Christian extremists were against IVF?
 
langster said:



The father of IVF ...... So much wrong with that :lol:

* I absolutely guarantee he hasn't got a clue what IVF stands for as if you watch each time he mentions it he only says the word fertilisation.
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Dr. Patrick Steptoe and Sir Robert Edward along with Louise Brown might have something to say about that, as far as I know Trump has never been to Oldhame either
 
Morty_ said:
Feels like a close race, and probably the only pickup-opportunity for dems this cycle(not counting Nebraska), so an important debate, Allred needs to hold his own tonight.

Since you live in Texas, how is the feeling on the ground, when it comes to this senate race?
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Yeah this race has been interesting. Considering Beto lost the race by a couple hundred thousand last time, pretty close considering. The different campaign style this time has been stark. Allred is more what I would imagine gets more votes as a Texas Democrat. While I liked Beto and voted for him. He was very liberal for a Texas voter. And his campaign style was much different. He raised a lot of money had a big national profile the whole time pretty much. He felt more accessible maybe? In that he famously campaigned in every single county even deep red counties etc. Even as liberal as he was.

Allred has been much more hey I'm a football loving ex football guy who is trying to get you some better representation that Cruz who everyone can barely stand personally even the people who vote for him. He isn't a beloved figure here but he wins. Cruz is more likely to get cussed out if you see him around the state or an airport than any type of praise.

It does feel like maybe it will be close. I think Allred is doing what he needs to do to potentially win in what would clearly be a split ticket type win. Trump is going to get Texas. But, those same voters some of them would have to vote Trump/Allred for him to win. Not overly confident I would say i would be more shocked if Allred wins than anything but hopeful. I can honestly say I don't know anyone personally who thinks or says Ted Cruz is great. And I literally work with majority Maga people in the Oil and Gas industry.
 
Not that hot a take: Allred will lose by more than Beto did in percentage term.

2018 was a perfect moment for Ds, mid term low turnout, unpopular incumbent, ACA repeal attempt. Abortion is not as unifying an issue as healthcare, and Texan Rs will turn out in number in a prez year.
 
Red in STL said:
Whomever is in power always get blamed, doesn't matter which party they are, same with the good news, the sitting administration always takes/gets the credit
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Then why Harris isn't leading by a significant margin?

The economy is strong despite the high interest rates. GDP growth is 3,2%, unemployment is low and the all major stock indices are on an all time high or near the all time high.
What sharp contrast to the mess Trump left in November 2020.
 
B. Munich said:
Then why Harris isn't leading by a significant margin?

The economy is strong despite the high interest rates. GDP growth is 3,2%, unemployment is low and the all major stock indices are on an all time high or near the all time high.
What sharp contrast to the mess Trump left in November 2020.
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Fuel and grocery prices.
 
B. Munich said:
Then why Harris isn't leading by a significant margin?

The economy is strong despite the high interest rates. GDP growth is 3,2%, unemployment is low and the all major stock indices are on an all time high or near the all time high.
What sharp contrast to the mess Trump left in November 2020.
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It is a concern, but at this point, i wouldn't spend too much energy into polling, the election has started, people are voting, look at the turnout and where.
 
oneniltothearsenal said:
The way unemployment skyrocketed in several sectors (like restaurant, hotel, travel, leisure related) influences how a stimulus affects demand too. There are generally two types of people when unemployment (permanent or especially temporary) hits, the type that spends the same and the type that adjusts spending downward. Because hand-to-mouth consumers adjust spending downward when unemployed, a stimulus combined with high unemployment will have far less impact on aggregate demand. Because of these specific circumstances, the stimulus wouldn't have boosted the demand the way it would have in normal times if government just handed out checks. A lot of the stimulus, even in middle class, was just used to cover cost of living like rent, mortgage, insurance, etc so the stimulus didn't really increase aggregate demand the way it might have in normal times. Well-to-do individuals also didn't typically change their spending patterns to affect demand again because it was a pandemic, not just a stimulus in normal times. I personally don't blame either President for inflation, as per my earlier post, but I totally get what you're saying.
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Fair enough. I'm far from the US so my information is just from the news and the internet.
It was reported that some people made more money sitting at home and receiving government handouts than working.
It was also highlighted that the free time many had due to the lockdowns people bought more things, just because they had so much time.

I actually meant it's total nonsense to blame Biden for the inflation. If a president is to blame it's Trump himself. Unfortunately, the democrats seem to be unable to get this message out to the broad public. This failure might well cost them the election.

In Germany the showing quotes and Trump has now am almost 60% probability to win. Shocking considering all the blunders he committed over the last months.

Anyway, enough off topic.
 
Rado_N said:
Fuel and grocery prices.
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Fuel prices should be down for a while.
If I'm paying 20 or 30% more for groceries but the stock market is up by over 70% I still have more money. The wage increases at Boeing and the ports are significant too.
Seems many Americans are seeing only the negative things. Half glass empty. That's actually the German way I always thought Americans are more positive Ana optimistic.
 
B. Munich said:
Fuel prices should be down for a while.
If I'm paying 20 or 30% more for groceries but the stock market is up by over 70% I still have more money. The wage increases at Boeing and the ports are significant too.
Seems many Americans are seeing only the negative things. Half glass empty. That's actually the German way I always thought Americans are more positive Ana optimistic.
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Fuel prices down compared to what level?

The stock market is an entirely meaningless metric to an enormous amount of people.

These things are complex and not down to Biden (never mind Harris) but most people don’t understand the mechanics and whether we like it or not these are the metrics many people use and they blame the person in the Oval.
 
B. Munich said:
Seems many Americans are seeing only the negative things. Half glass empty. That's actually the German way I always thought Americans are more positive Ana optimistic.
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That’s no longer the case. There is no that pride that we used to have in our country. The 2000 elections, The war in Irak, the Financial Crisis, Trump and the mismanagement of Covid early on reduced the confidence in this country and increased negativity.
 
ManUtd1999 said:
Trump and the mismanagement of Covid early on reduced the confidence in this country and increased negativity.
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Wow.... And what are Americans doing? Voting for this idiot again. That's called masochistic, isn't it?

Here in the Philippines are many retired Americans, mostly ex army. I talked too many, 90% are pro Trump. Not one could give valid reasons why Trump would be the better choice bar maybe migration.
 
B. Munich said:
Wow.... And what are Americans doing? Voting for this idiot again. That's called masochistic, isn't it?

Here in the Philippines are many retired Americans, mostly ex army. I talked too many, 90% are pro Trump. Not one could give valid reasons why Trump would be the better choice bar maybe migration.
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What you describe makes people like me, on the other side of Trumpism, feel bad about the situation of the country. I was generally optimistic, but I’m optimistic now. 2016 was a big shock for me.

Having said that, we can’t give up to despair, and curing our problems starts with winning the upcoming election.
 
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ManUtd1999 said:
What you describe makes people like me, on the other side of Trumpism, feel bad about the situation of the country. I was generally optimistic, but I longer feel that way. 2016 was a big shock for me.
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Absolutely. 2016 was a terrible year. First Brexit than Trump.
I'm an huge fan of the EU. Sure there are many flaws but it's the best solution available. No idea why the Brits thought otherwise. 8 years later all the great promisee made by Johnson and Farage still didn't become true.

On the other hand in pretty sure the UK wouldn't vote for Brexit again. Sadly this can't be said about Americans.
I'm honestly puzzled when discussing politics with Americans here how invested they are. It's like a cult. Like diehard football fans. If you criticize Trump, it is the same as criticizing them. Absolute madness.
Trump is as senile as Biden. I'm honestly worried about Europe, if he wins the election. This time it's not only Trump but also Bannon and the crazy heritage foundation with their project 2025.
Common Harris win this election!
 
RG77 said:
There is literally nothing he could say or do that would lose him votes. Simply immune to it all.
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It’s really infuriating that! I mean he could commit literal murder and not lose a vote. That’s not fandom. That’s a cult!
 


Bit of a counter to the narrative that Georgia looks great for dems, based on early voting so far.

Nothing to draw conclusions from, obviously, but i'd rather look at real numbers than polling at this point.
 
Watching the Fox interview now. She’s getting smoked on the border.

Now on tax payer funded gender surgery for prisoners.
 
Raoul said:
Watching the Fox interview now. She’s getting smoked on the border.

Now on tax payer funded gender surgery for prisoners.
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We already know who the Fox News viewers are going to vote for. Question is where do “independents” get their news from?
 
RDCR07 said:
We already know who the Fox News viewers are going to vote for. Question is where do “independents” get their news from?
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Yes, I don’t think this will move the needle with less than 3 weeks to go and with many already having early voted. This is the level of scrutiny she should’ve received from the beginning.
 
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