Being interviewed by a frat bro is more demanding then being the Attorney General for the State of California and a US Senator?
2024 U.S. Elections | Trump wins
- Thread starter Raoul
- Start date
The only thing Rogan can grill is a piece of steak.
Harris is actually perfectly fine in a long form setting, when she can talk relatively at length, for example:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing...imes-12th-annual-dealbook-summit-new-york-ny/
Her problem is she sticks too rigidly to her talking points in adversarial setting or limited time format, which appear scripted/unconvincing. While Rogan is no friendly interviewer, he’s too uninformed to really drill down into anything substantively, so she will get to talk and present her case.
Coming across in a way that the majority want you to lead their country might well be.
I think it's great that she's going on pretty much any show. When the campaign is over in a blissfully short number of days, no one can accuse her of not trying everything.
The people that try to make her out as a bad interview imo are just clutching at straws at this point. Will she say something you don't agree with? 100%. Will she answer some questions with a rote, political answer? Of course. But you can accuse literally any politician of that - even the most personable.
The bottom line is that on literally every single objective measure for a leader, she is a better choice than Donald Trump, in a head to head - which is what US elections are. If you support functioning goverment, the adherence to law and democracy, then you can only vote one way. Hell if you want a President who can literally understand the daily briefing, you can only vote one way.
I think the time for apologising that she's not perfect is well and truly over. The people still arguing about minor quotes or stumbles or responses is so far from seeing the forest that they just need to step back and look at the big picture.
There is only one reason to vote for Donald Trump over Kamala Harris: ignorance. It is ignorance over economic policy, ignorance over the President's actual capabilites and ignorance over why you - wherever you are - are unhappy with your lot in life. Or, as dare I say it a lot of folk on here are - ignorant about what angry nihilism actually brings to a system. And I don't mean that as the perjurative of 'you are stupid' I mean literally willfully ignoring the reality of the situation.
And no, she was never my first, second or third choice for this election. That doesn't matter one bit now.
Edit: sorry I thought of another reason: if you are on the Project 2025 side of things, obviously he's a great choice. If you hear Stephen Miller talking and think, 'ya know, he does make a good point' then yes, Trump is your man.
The people that try to make her out as a bad interview imo are just clutching at straws at this point. Will she say something you don't agree with? 100%. Will she answer some questions with a rote, political answer? Of course. But you can accuse literally any politician of that - even the most personable.
The bottom line is that on literally every single objective measure for a leader, she is a better choice than Donald Trump, in a head to head - which is what US elections are. If you support functioning goverment, the adherence to law and democracy, then you can only vote one way. Hell if you want a President who can literally understand the daily briefing, you can only vote one way.
I think the time for apologising that she's not perfect is well and truly over. The people still arguing about minor quotes or stumbles or responses is so far from seeing the forest that they just need to step back and look at the big picture.
There is only one reason to vote for Donald Trump over Kamala Harris: ignorance. It is ignorance over economic policy, ignorance over the President's actual capabilites and ignorance over why you - wherever you are - are unhappy with your lot in life. Or, as dare I say it a lot of folk on here are - ignorant about what angry nihilism actually brings to a system. And I don't mean that as the perjurative of 'you are stupid' I mean literally willfully ignoring the reality of the situation.
And no, she was never my first, second or third choice for this election. That doesn't matter one bit now.
Edit: sorry I thought of another reason: if you are on the Project 2025 side of things, obviously he's a great choice. If you hear Stephen Miller talking and think, 'ya know, he does make a good point' then yes, Trump is your man.
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Lots of doom and gloom from the leftie political commentators now. RCP poll average has Trump leading in enough BG states to pull off a win. Nothing major planned for the rest of the cycle to really move the needle, but we're still waiting for that October surprise (that may never come).
Not looking too good, in summary. Feeling a bit down about it.
Not looking too good, in summary. Feeling a bit down about it.
I think that’s overly gloomy but it is trending very slowly in Trump’s direction currently and there’s no suggestion any sort of news will change the trajectory. But it’s still so close (a literal 50/50 in Nate Silver’s model now) that it’s essentially a coin-toss, and the real question is whether the polls err slightly to one side or the other. Of course that’s depressing enough in itself.
Biden's firewall was bigger at this same point in 2020 and he still only won the state narrowly. So yeah plenty to be nervous about currently.
Didn’t somebody on here recently say that most of the polls getting published are Republican polls?
Nate Cohn wrote the other day in his column that the averages change very little if you exclude the flood from GOP leaning pollsters.
Strong female turnout in Georgia on day one
As I probably started this discussion about inflation, let me clarify what I meant.
My main point was how can many Americans believe it was the Biden administration that caused inflation. That's just utter nonsense.
All your points are valid and contributed to the raise of inflation.
I highlighted Trump's poor managing of the pandemic to be one reason. The stimulus packages, which weren't needed (except for the poor) and were mainly a distraction from his failures in handling the crisis, contributed further to the raise of inflation.
If you already a supply deficit then you don't increase demand by any means.
Did it play a major role? I don't know, probably not.
Again my point was to highlight that Trump takes more responsibility in causing inflation than Biden.
But still he gets away with his lies that it was Biden who caused the inflation. Worse there enough stupid people who believe this nonsense.
If the campaign is such a success story and she’s doing everything expected of her. Then maybe…just maybe….people (with more exposure to her) are realising they just don’t like Kamala.
Trump's body language in that Bloomberg interview was akin to a defiant child unhappy for being called out on his own actions/words. Sitting with his arms folded and slinging shots at the interviewer, man-child extra.
Or America is extremely divided and this election is fundamentally bad to the incumbent party to the point that the only reason they remain competitive is that Trump leads the other ticket.
Harris will most likely be a very mediocre president should she be elected, but let’s not pretend it’s possible to replicate 2008 Obama’s performance in the current environment. Her campaign was left with a turd of a hand by Biden’s decision to seek re-election and they had clawed back a 4-5 points deficit into a consistent 2-3 pts lead in national vote margin and tied swing states average in the span of 3 months.
I believe it is a factor in the inflation, just that supply chain issues from pandemic and fallout from war in Ukraine were bigger factors, but stimulus is getting most of the blame just because it was the only one that was consciously introduced.
My armchair understanding is that inflation by itself is a pretty useless marker without any analysis of wages and I thought it's not that controversial that state of the economy was a lot better handled in the pandemic than (although obviously pandemic itself was atrociously handled), for example, 2008 despite the fact that latter had negative inflation.
Trump and Republicans blaming Biden admin for inflation are still obviously massive twats though.
How much it was back then?
I wouldn’t look at polls at this stage. They are all over the place.
I look at early voting. We’re in mid October.
I look at early voting. We’re in mid October.
I absolutely love how his face went from laughing to "Oh feck this is a killer point".
Wonder if he knew the supply closet line was coming.
About 1.1 million at the end of VBM period.
However, it was pandemic and Ds voted by mail disproportionately, so Election Day was R+30. Since then, the E Day R edge was typically 8-15 pts, as Ds switched back to Eday voting.
As long as those same people are willing to acknowledge that their dislike of her is enough to have a second Trump term, fine, that's their decision.
I'd be curious what it is that drives that decision (or from your tone your opinion)?
Thank you. Yes, 2020 was very unusual as you say. She doesn’t need 1.1 million this time around.
One more point: she’s adding like +20k to +30k vote to her lead on average every day. With 20 days to go, that would add 400-600k more to her lead, bringing it up to 600-800k. Some analysis suggests that + 400k would be a good enough lead this time. She is well ahead of that, and I’m not saying that this number is set in stone.
Personally, based on early voting, in PA and some other places, I don’t agree with the feeling of doom and gloom. That could depress turnout.
The thing is polls are really useful because as long as they are within their margin of error they can tell you something and then when the actual results come in you can look at how close they were and really learn something
Republicans tend to catch up eventually in return rate, they are lagging behind by nearly 9% there, so she will progressively gain less and less closer to Election day, Joshua also said he will revise up the number.
My feeling is she will probably end up somewhere between 450-500k edge between D vs R, then another 100k from independents VBM (typically 70D-30R, let’s be conservative and assume 65-35). That brings the total to 550-600k and if she doesn’t lose EDay by more than 13-14, that’s a decent place to be.
However, even if they don’t catch up doesn’t mean she has it in the bag, if someone requests but don’t return their ballot, can still vote on EDay, so don’t take early vote number as gospel.
Did you watch Trumps economic forum interview yesterday? Nothing can be a worse car crash than that. If he survives that, Kamala can survive another fecking Joe.
#supplyclosettedHe can claim tarrifs cure cancer, and that every working class individual in the US should probably be under chattel slavery - and he still wouldn't lose voters.
Unfortunately Trump making an ass out of himself and being completely incoherent does not make passive Independents and Democrat voters get out to actually vote for Harris.
This is the key point.
The reality is Trump's base is locked in, he can say or do no wrong, no matter how much it hurts his cult. He could go full dementia and announce the ghost of his old mate Epstein as his new running mate and it wouldn't hurt his vote share one bit.
If you're at that point then your best bet is porbably to remove yourself from the gene pool!
I believe around 400k
Has Trump gained any votes since 2020?
I can't see how he could. It's been the same old whinge, lie , slander and outright hate from him.
I can't see that being enough.
Whomever is in power always get blamed, doesn't matter which party they are, same with the good news, the sitting administration always takes/gets the credit
If what they are saying and hearing from Trump doesn’t make independents make their goddamn mind up then nothing will. I mean what exactly are they independent about? I understand if it’s between two sane candidates.
I've maintained this whole cycle that in absolute terms Trump won't beat his numbers from 2020.
It all comes down to whether or not Harris can get near Biden's numbers - which as a reminder were both record setting and barely enough. That's the challenge.
I believe the universe of informed independents is empty.
What will move the needle is the low-information fence-sitters. Those that don't know a lot and aren't even sure if they're going to vote. That's what the campaigns are currently after.
I haven't been keeping up with the day to day of it all, but I just spent half an hour on social media while eating lunch, and the clips of him struggling are strikingly similar to those of biden.
That will stick. It did with biden despite the media underplaying how bad he was. Everyone has seen a relative go through that decline, they know what it looks like whatever people claim.
That will stick. It did with biden despite the media underplaying how bad he was. Everyone has seen a relative go through that decline, they know what it looks like whatever people claim.
Another good day for D in PA, nearly 30k added to the lead and return edge grew another 0.2%.
Honestly haven’t seen this Republican registration growth touted by MAGAs manifest in actual votes thus far.
Honestly haven’t seen this Republican registration growth touted by MAGAs manifest in actual votes thus far.
You obviously didn't hear her with Charlamagne. Yes, he supports Harris, but he asked some pretty awkward questions. As did those in the town hall.
And since when has Rogan been some tough journalist? He is unresearched and just nods along with his mouth open when his guests are talking saying "wooooahhhh dude, I didn't know that". That is his problem - he lets people on his show, that often talk absolute nonsense and he has no ability to call them out or fact check them.
We don't know if she will go on there, but if she does, Trump will too. So it gives the audience a clear side by side of the two. The contrast couldn't be clearer.
Good signs. But one would think if there has been a bump in Republican registration, then they will go to the polls on Nov 6th.
Pray for torrential rain on election day in PA!