The link answers the question, no? It says it is more expensive to get a 30-year fixed rate mortgage, buy a new car, put gas on the car, and pay your electricity bill now than it was under Trump.
2024 U.S. Elections | Trump wins
- Thread starter Raoul
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This stuff largely doesn't matter at all. People might say the economy matters when being polled for 5 minutes, but they simply don't vote based on things like statistics on unemployment or jobs created. I've brought him up over the years but George Lakoff studied this for decades and people vote based on moral values for the most part. If you want to understand how voters actually vote in the US, there is no better book than Moral Politics.
Of the small segment of actual undecided voters where they believe the economy is a vote determiner, it really won't make a difference what statistics say because they vote on perception and how they feel about the economy not aggregate stats. Sure inflation is down but prices haven't dropped so they still feel the negative effects of every time they're at the grocery store. For jobs, the raw numbers don't take into account types of jobs. For instance, in the last 4 years there were a ton of layoffs of well paying tech jobs and at least anecdotally, I see mostly min wage retail jobs as the places that are hiring. If you worked for a FAANG and got laid off, jobs opening up at McDonalds and WalMart don't mean anything. So I really don't see these numbers making any difference in this election.
It's not just the GOP, it's the vast majority of voters outside a tiny minority of politiphiles.
Exactly this.
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Some people wont accept that voters are humans after all. They dont care about statistic. They just care about whatever they see around them. Unemployment data and inflation statistics are for the economist, real voters are much more simpler than that.
The Democrats needs to get off their high valerian and start talking in everyday language rather than branding them idiots and laugh at them.
And for some this is not their first election. It's all been done to death all the rhetoric about promises on the economic and jobs, comes inauguration it's same bills different president for most
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/rent-cost-us-2024-housing-national/
"Wages for the typical U.S. worker have surged since the pandemic, but for many Americans those gains are being gobbled up by rising rent.
Rents jumped 30.4% nationwide between 2019 and 2023, while wages during that same period rose 20.2%, according to a recent analysis from online real estate brokers Zillow and StreetEasy"
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/car-insurance-rates-2024-inflation-climate-change-bankrate-report/
According to a new Bankrate report, U.S. drivers are paying an average of $2,543 annually, or $212 per month, for car insurance — an increase of 26% from last year.
https://themortgagereports.com/112679/states-surging-home-insurance-costs
Realtor.com analyzed S&P Global Market Intelligence homeowner rate filings submitted to the Department of Insurance for 10 largest homeowners insurance underwriters in each state from 2018 to 2023. It found overall insurance costs in the U.S. shot up 33.8% in that timeframe.
Broken down by state, Texas saw the largest growth, spiking 59.9% in those five years. Colorado came next at 57.9%, followed by 52.9% in Arizona, 51.9% in Utah, and 48.6% in Nebraska.
Look at the food inflation in the last 3 years...
https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/food-inflation-in-the-united-states/
Wages may have risen, but the inflation rate for essentials, including rent, is higher.
Bear in mind, not everyone has got pay rises of 20% over the past few years. For those who haven't, the insurance and food prices are crippling given that many are living paycheck to paycheck.
We can throw around numbers all day, but people believe they are worse off. And i dont think that is just because bacon is more expensive.
Im a high earner, with a low interest mortgage that has received only very small increases over the past couple of years. Life is more expensive for me now than it was 5 years. ago.
If you are right and the country is so much better off, then why is there a perception that the economy is bad for many working people ? It really can't just be down the supermarket sticker shock? And why cant Biden, and now Harris, message effectively on the topic?
Agree with your first point. Statistics dont matter. It is the money in someone wallet that does. Can they afford to eat out on a friday night? Can they afford a new car? Can they a afford to buy the same standard of presents for their kinds birthdays or send them on camp this year?
I honestly don't think the Democrats are on any kind of high house about the economy. Harris has been very careful not to tout Bidens economic achievements. You don't hear her talking about a booming stock market. I think she has been very sensitive towards people's perceptions and the reality of costs currently.
It is not the economy as a whole. It is how they perceive the economy to be working for them. Or more critically, how much money they have in their back pocket.
Wouldn’t surprise anyone if she was given that she literally dined with Putin.
How else does the leader of a completely irrelevant US political party, supposedly focused on environmental issue, end up dining with Putin?
Once day, all the information about Russia's influence over the 2016 campaign, and Trump, will come out.
Why? Because Fox News tells them the economy is bad, all day every day, and they don’t look anywhere else for news.
The inflation rate, when everything is included, from goods to services, is 2.5%. You can’t pick certain items and base your analysis on that, certainly not by looking at Bankrate.
I can also talk about the fall in auto prices this past year:
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.ht
But that wouldn’t be serious. .
The cumulative inflation rate of
August 2024/December 2019 is roughly 23%, in almost FIVE years. Yes, that’s higher than usual, but it’s not 26% a year, or even a third of that.
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Also: according to Nerdwallet, the numbers for car insurance are totally different than in Bankrate:
“The national average annual car insurance cost is $1,776 for full coverage and $501 for minimum coverage.”
(From 3 days ago)
https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/insurance/how-much-is-car-insurance
So, who is right? A lot depends on what you look at, what coverages/drivers you look at, etc. That’s why I prefer to look at official publications.
“The national average annual car insurance cost is $1,776 for full coverage and $501 for minimum coverage.”
(From 3 days ago)
https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/insurance/how-much-is-car-insurance
So, who is right? A lot depends on what you look at, what coverages/drivers you look at, etc. That’s why I prefer to look at official publications.
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A lot of Americans base their opinion on the economy by what the price of gas is and how much their 401K is worth as well as the cost of food.
Unfor,tunately the gas and foo d prices are higher now than they were under Trump even though both are now falling, (and are mostly bugger all to do with whomever is in chage)401K's took a big hit during the pandemic, I know mine did and it hasn't fully recovered although it's getting there
I was actually referring to the independent voters who will decide the election. Not to Trump's MAGA base.
Of course the stock market isn't the only indicator. GDP growth is by far the strongest amongst the G7 countries. Inflation is down again, oil prices are down as well. Unemployment is low and the labor market is strong.
Thanks for the link. I'll have a look. Again I wasn't referring to the MAGA base which is something between 30 to 35%. They will always vote for Trump.
I had the independent voters in mind who (at least I thought so) are more open to facts and statistics about how the economy is doing.
Harris and the democrats have to bring it the message that it was Trump's terrible handling of the pandemic which caused the inflation in the first place. You don't have to study economics to understand that giving free money to everybody when many factories are closed and supply chains are disrupted will cause inflation.
Isn't turn out for Presidential elections always more than mid terms?
Pretty much everyone to some extent, including all of us posting here.
As a data analyst and not a twitter person, I have so many questions.
The black numbers are almost identical to the last Presidential election. The white numbers have fallen off a cliff. Hence the black percentage is higher.
And this is...bad for Harris? Is there something here I don't understand that implies these black voters are going for Trump?
This might not be an example as I'm clearly missing something, but the industry that has developped about random Twitter people saying 'IT@S AWFUL NEWS FOR X PARTY OMG!' without any meaningful analysis or actual data literacy is one of the worst parts of the world we currently reside in. Personally,I think non-academic/journalist twitter should be banned from these threads...
i could be wrong, but scrolling his timeline he seems very pro-dem. I'm pretty sure that twitter post is really badly signposted sarcasm at the idea black voters are flocking to trump.
It’s a joke, there’s a veritable industry of MAGA grifters spreading misinformation about early voting data on Twitter, especially the ‘Virginia turning red’ baloney. This is a dunk on those.
For the record, early voting data/mail ballot number is really meaningless except for 1 state, and black/minority number surging isn’t ‘good for Trump’.
The post is sarcastic. You are right, the fundamental flaw of this kind of analysis is that it relies on assumptions about who is voting for who, who will turn out later, etc. and if the assumptions are off, the whole thing falls apart.
WTF?
We don't want more shit here. It was bad enough when that absolute prick Gunter was appointed ambassador by Trump.
I recall he wanted to have a gun on him self... In Iceland
A whole lot of accounts on social media spinning this hurricane to influence the election.
Another issue from it will be logistics. Hardest hit area in NC is one of the bluest areas and I’m not sure how these folks are going to be able to vote.
Another issue from it will be logistics. Hardest hit area in NC is one of the bluest areas and I’m not sure how these folks are going to be able to vote.
Yes, that sounds right, last week I listened to some commentator speculating that those living... 'pay cheque' to 'pay cheque' are the ones who will decide this election. Apparently this could decide matters in the swing-states.
I've stumbled onto a couple conspiracy/hard right rabbit holes on social media posts and shares since yesterday. A cesspool of lies, dis/misinformation, and so forth. FEMA and the Red Cross are apparently deep state machines for Biden, the Clintons, Obama, etc. Meanwhile, Trump is the savior for them and will eliminate FEMA and other agencies. Like he did in his time in office, apparently.
Yep. All the while praising the out of state linesmen crews that have been showing up to help restore power. Wonder who funded that?
To put it in the words of my students… these MAGA folks are cooked. Everything is a conspiracy. Everything is deep state. Everyone lies, except their Dear Leader.
Now to be fair, we *can* control the weather in a very small area, at a pretty astronomical cost, but I don’t think that is what she was talking about here.
Exactly this. I love that one of the quote tweets in response is this bumper sticker:
Is there a human being on the dems side being complacent? Barely any of us sleeping at this stage!
Their working theory seems to be that keeping out of the limelight and let Trump talk will remind voters of how odious he is, and thereby win the election. The problem is a) he's not covered as aggressively by the press, they even sanewash him most of the time so his insane ramblings were made to be coherent political attacks and b) he's not the incumbent right now with approvals in the toilet and an ongoing crisis to manage like in 20 (average is -10 right now, which is like a 25 point improvement from when he left office). I think their strategy of doing more alternative media is fine, but surrogates should be flooding the airwaves regardless. Walz is going on Kimmel, let him do the talk shows, let him do CNBC, let him go on Fox, all the morning shows, let other like Mayor Butt, Whitmer, Newsom, Shapiro, those not running in a competitive race that needs distancing from her do more traditional media. They will get on her back for not providing access regardless, but you shouldn't cede any ground to GOPers and their talking points at this stage of the campaign.
Not sure what Aaron Rupar is trying to say. No one is complacent. This is just unnecessary. Everyone knows that PA is very close and that the whole election is very close.
This rally was always going to draw people. That was obvious.
I recall he wanted to have a gun on him self... In Iceland
He did, the odious cnut.
The worst ambassador ever placed here.
Full episode airs tonight