254k jobs added in September, with unemployment down to 4.1%.
Harris will be happy with that.
Harris will be happy with that.
2024 U.S. Elections | Trump wins
- Thread starter Raoul
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I don't think anyone was arguing that in the recent discussion.
Totally agree. I wake up each day baffled - purely on the US political front - of why Harris isn't pushing Biden under a metaphoric bus and saying she cannot support Netanyahu. Beacuse I have to hope internally that's what she wants to do.
Everything I've read suggests that the US have been continuing aid with the express promise that Netanyahu wouldn't escalate outside of Gaza into Lebanon. Blinken's there for a year trying to prevent just that. And here we are. Netanyahu does not give a flying f*ck. He (rightly?) believes Harris/Biden won't risk changing tack until 32 days from now or whatever it is.
But on November 6th...hrm....
Joe Walsh called out Mitt Romney last night on CNN to publicly endorse Harris.
Completely agree.
Unfortunately people don't understand this. Trumps message of "there was no wars under me and no inflation under me" is far simpler for people to understand.
Its true that that people percieve things to be better prior to Biden admin, but its also true that GOP is a deeply unlikable party, things like election denialism, abortion bans and project 25, are not minor issues for the average voter either.
Good to hear this from Walsh.
If Harris wins, she should appoint few Republicans to cabinet positions. Kinzinger could be one of them.
You can if you’re using the people around him as being his cheerleaders and facilitators at the same time he gets removed from the ticket.
Walsh's evolution from tea party right winger in 2010 to Harris supporter is pretty surreal. He is of course still a republican representing a small sliver of conservatives in the Liz Cheney faction who correctly see Trump as the danger he is.
Appointing republicans to important positions is part of the reason why things ended up where they did though, i hope dems don't repeat that.
Obama appointed Comey, and look how that turned out, Biden appointed Garland, who is apparently too scared to go after convicted republicans.
If she must, appoint them to something insignifcant, ambassador to Iceland or something.
I think Liz Cheney is angling for a potential Secretary of Defense gig, just like her Dad had 35 years ago.
What would happen politically, with a month to go to the election, if she were to come out and say this?
Does it win here any votes? Does she lose more that she gains? Would it ramp up Israel's attacks on Gaza / Lebanon / Iran because Netanyahu believes there is potentially only a limited window for him to attack?
How would Trump capitalise on the split between Harris and Biden? Does he paint her as anti-simetic for doing so? And what is the impact of this?
She wont get it.
And i really dont think Harris needs to be wasting her time with Cheney. What is the message? Beyond giving a very small group of Republicans a permission structure to vote for Harris. And does that really work? Those that could be reached already know that Trump is a maniac. Do they need Liz Cheney telling them so?
I don't know if she would get it or not, but Harris will attempt to emplace more women into key roles in government, so this would kill two birds with one stone. The other option would be Michelle Flournoy, whose name is always tipped for SecDef when a Dem wins the WH. As for Republicans, I would imagine Kinzinger may get the Veterans Affairs job.
Worst opener for a post I've seen in a long time, I'd be surprised if anyone read past that first sentence.
Add to that a GDP growth of 3% in Q3, all indices making record highs, oil prices coming back and the fed is lowering interest rates.
Even the port strike has been resolved in days without interference from the white house.
It's the perfect goldilocks scenario going into the election. If the economy indeed matters most for Americans, I can't see anything else than a landslide win for Harris. Trump is toasted.
I'm pretty positive on Harris behalf compared to most around here, but i will say that i'm sceptical that "the economy" matters as much as much as it did in the past.
2016? Trump told everybody that the real unemployment rate was like 40% percent, enough to get him into office, even though the economy was doing alright, this is proof that objective reality doesn't count with the voters.
2018? Economy was doing good by most metrics, it did not stop the blue wave, it wasn't really the economy that was at the heart of the voter.
2020? Unique circumstances, once in a life-time pandemic, so its a bit hard to draw conclusions here.
2022? Really bad inflation, it was supposed to be a red-wave, if voters voted with their wallets only, dems should have been wiped out, and yet it was basically a draw.
I can't find conclusive evidence through the last 8 years that "the economy" is what wins elections, even if voters always say that this is their number one issue.
Sadly, the GOP are all about how you feel about the economy. And then Fox tells you how awful it is for 24 hours a day.
Biden has more women than men in his cabinet....
https://www.whitehouse.gov/administration/cabinet/
I think Chaney is looking for a job, for sure. Kinzinger would be good as VA sec.
Sure, and Fox/right-wing media has a solid grip on a big part of the population, but its not a one-way street, 2018 should have been way better for republicans, 2022 should have been way worse for democrats, if they were the ultimate authority.
It doesn't really matter too much that happened in the past - even though the economy is usually the number one issue. Voters are telling pollsters the economy is the number one issue today. Prices in supermarkets, the price of housing, insurance and gas is what people see and Harris doesn't have a good message on these things.
That is why, i think she will lose. I think voters may be telling pollsters that they will vote Harris, but when it comes to the crunch, people vote their pocketbooks, time and again. The Trump message of "you were better off under me" is working.
Fox can tell whatever they want. If the markets are on record highs, inflation and oil prices are coming down, unemployment is low and the economy is strong, only the MAGA crowd will believe them. That's only 30 to 35% of the voters. Not enough to win an election.
Why does it not matter what happened in the past, when they name the number one issue to be the same, its true now, but in the past, not really?
You are saying they lied in the past, but now they are being super serious about their answer, well okay then, we will have to disagree.
Perhaps voters don't really know what they want, most people don't know what they want either, in general, its hardly something new.
No, i don't think Trump's message is working much, you have your theory, i have mine.
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Which is nonsense. The economy is much stronger today. Just look at the stock markets.
Trump left a mess due to his terrible handling of the pandemic.
People vote their values, not their interest.
If the economy and economic policies dictate voting behaviour, trade union white guys wouldn't have voted in droves for a union busting scab like Trump.
Also just to add to the point, in 2022 only 26% of the electorate thought the US was on the right track, a historic low, and inflation was at 8%, and but for a dogshit NY governor, Dem would have kept both chambers of Congress in a mid term, R+3 electorate.
If the economy and economic policies dictate voting behaviour, trade union white guys wouldn't have voted in droves for a union busting scab like Trump.
Also just to add to the point, in 2022 only 26% of the electorate thought the US was on the right track, a historic low, and inflation was at 8%, and but for a dogshit NY governor, Dem would have kept both chambers of Congress in a mid term, R+3 electorate.
Dogshit NY major too, or ex-major, anytime soon, doesn't help either.
Pelosi pretty much blamed New York for dems losing the house in 2022, i hope she won't have to do it come November, consistent pattern of bad polling in the state, constant scandals, and general incompetency.
Perhaps dems will have to pick up some seats in other states, New York may not be quite the blue stronghold anymore.
That it's nonsense has no barring on the fact that it is working. The right in the US runs on emotion not facts. Facts are totally irrelevant
Very little of Trump's support has to do with economics, it has to do with race, culture-wars, and making others suffer, not much more complicated than that.
The average American has around $8,000 in their savings account. Nearly a third of all Americans, and it includes people of all ages, have less than $1,000 in cash to fall back on.
What the stock market is doing is not the economy. And pretending that it is is exactly how centrists lose elections to rabid right wingers.
I agree that dems could do much better on the actual economy than what they have been doing.
But again, are people not responsible for their own actions? If you can't figure out for yourself, that the GOP just sucks for ordinary people, then i can't help you, it is what it is.
The problem is the exact same one happenning here in the UK.
If all the dems have is to bang on about how great the economy is doing, the third of people living paycheck to paycheck working two and three minimum wage jobs are wondering what the hell you are going on about. They know at that point you are not speaking to them, so they look for someone, anyone, offering them some help.
Here, its starmer and reeves saying we've all got to tighten our belts and nan will have to freeze this year. While having their clothes bought, concert tickets paid for and claiming their heating costs off the tax payer. People look at that and know they are not working for ordinary people, so they look for someone, anyone offering to help.
Which is why reform just got a 20% or so swing in a council byelection in blackpool last night, taking the seat from labour.
It is not a surprise because I know reality, but it is crazy the uncertainty and stress that has to cause being in this situation. I only was in that situation for half a year and even taking in account that my personal network would bail me out if i had a problem, it was not pleasant. Imagine being the norm
The US has a 4.1% unemployment per last numbers. No one that works should be in that situation. The system is perverse.
Ok, so i didn't say the economy. I said "The Trump message of "you were better off under me" is working."
The stock market isn't the only indicator of the economy.
The people that will decide this election are likely not heavily invested in the stock market. Perhaps not at all. And if they are, it will be via their 401k that that doesnt help them day to day.
They may be living paycheck to paycheck. Their landlord has put the rent up because insurance have risen and prices in the supermarket are more expensive than ever.
Which is why Trumps message is working. Many people were better off 5 or 6 years ago, than they are today.
Exactly this. Really dumb for anyone to point to the Stock Market and say, "look, the economy is great".
Agree with all of this. They have to walk a fine line.
There is a lot to point to that shows the economy is good, but prices are not dropping for people. They may never drop because companies now know that people can and will pay more.
I'm not sure if Harris has got the messaging right on this yet. She has mentioned price gouging, but is that the real reason why the price of eggs is up? Or is it just because the expenses of those in the egg supply chain have increased costs that they must now pass on to make a profit?
I'm not sure if we actually agree or disagree on this point, mixed messages, i feel.
As long as Harris doesn't spend a lot more time with Cheney, a couple of quick appearances are fine. There are still Republicans out there on the fence, and showing Cheney is just another push to get them to vote D for one election. Harris is already trying to appeal to the traditional Dem base, and pulling in those on the margins could swing it.
Who are the many?
https://www.forbes.com/sites/christ...economy-is-much-stronger-than-four-years-ago/
https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/economy/are-you-better-off-now-than-you-were-four-years-ago
https://www.thebulwark.com/p/the-definitive-answer-to-the-question
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/06/us-economy-excellent/678630/