2024 U.S. Elections | Trump wins
- Thread starter Raoul
- Start date
Our Black Nazi admitted to cheating on his wife with her sister on that forum, also described in graphic details his affinity for golden showers.
Not gonna post those tweets because yikes but anybody not afraid of getting eye herpes can search AmericaMuck on Twitter and see for yourself.
Not gonna post those tweets because yikes but anybody not afraid of getting eye herpes can search AmericaMuck on Twitter and see for yourself.
Ahh, i now see the common interest between Robinson and Trump!
In fairness it’s one better than Angela Davis who yesterday endorsed Harris.
Mark Robinson 
I don’t like guns, but politically this could be good for her.
That’s because we are a nation of blood thirsty degenerates who place no value on life. From Gaza to guns, a death is just a headline to get angry about for a day.
I know morning consult is an average pollster, but man, if it wouldn't be sweet to see that man out of a job soon.
We will see what Cruz recent no-vote for IVF will do for his re-election campaign, hope this is the start of a tightening race.
There's been a bit of a buzz about Texas lately. I wouldn't get my hopes up though.
Full Harris - Oprah interview
Why this is important may not seem immediately obvious, of course New York is in no way, shape or form, in danger of flipping, but a closer than expected race in New York could spell trouble for dems in the house, it was arguably the single biggest factor for dems not holding the house in 2022.
Pelosi even indirectly blamed the very unpopular governor for it, now, Horchul isn't on the ballot this time, but i guess her unpopularity could still drag dems down.
I don't think NY was ever considered a realistic flip for Trump, despite him bloviating to the contrary.
No, but dems probably needs those house seats back, in order to flip the house.
Both Hochul and Adams are genuinely horrible politicians, I would be suprised if Trump eventually runs 10 points better there than in 2020 though.
That being said, this kinda poll explains Siena bearish national number for Harris vs bullish state number. 8.5 m voted in NY in 2020, 10 percentage point is roughly 800k based on projected turn out this year, maybe a bit less. Coupled that with some erosion in CA and other deep blue state and you can shave a couple of mils off Biden's 2020 margin without hurting the battleground states., which means you arrive at roughly 2 or 3 percent popular vote lead for Democrats. If that pans out then its bad news for down ballots.
That being said, this kinda poll explains Siena bearish national number for Harris vs bullish state number. 8.5 m voted in NY in 2020, 10 percentage point is roughly 800k based on projected turn out this year, maybe a bit less. Coupled that with some erosion in CA and other deep blue state and you can shave a couple of mils off Biden's 2020 margin without hurting the battleground states., which means you arrive at roughly 2 or 3 percent popular vote lead for Democrats. If that pans out then its bad news for down ballots.
It probably explains why Siena can have Harris up by 4 in Pennsylvania, yet tied in the national vote, yes.
I would say Florida would shave off that margin even more in favor of republicans in a state that ultimately doesn't matter, but Florida is apparently getting close again, despite being all about culture wars and making libs cry less than two years ago.
I don't understand why Florida will now apparently be close again, similiar to 2020, but i guess it is.
Amendment 4 - abortion.
Sure, but red states votes for abortion referendums to secure abortion rights across the board, while voting straight R downticket anyway.
I suppose it could boost dem turnout in Florida, but its worth mentioning they have pretty much never trailed republicans more in vote registration than they do now, dem state party is not a very serious organization anymore.
But i reckon i'm wrong on this, and voters there has had a change of heart.
Republicans gaining in registration is a nationwide trend. Young/first time registrants are overwhelmingly NPAs.
I've seen good words said about the new FL Dem Chairs Nikki Fried, and Biden did terribly with Latinos in 2020. If Harris can improve that particular demographic to anywhere close to Clinton's number in 16, theres an outside chance for flipping it. It's probably worth going down there for a couple of rallies, plus Taylor Swift will have 3 concerts there 2 weeks out from the election.
just fascinating that trump has made the entire Republican Party Teflon - any scandal gets shelved under fakes news and liberal propoganda
I don't think it's that tbh. MAGA just doesn't care. There's a great article in the Atlantic by David French (I think?) about the time he's spent with his MAGA family and friends in rural Tennesee. Basically, they're MAGA because it feels good, is fun and is an engaging way for them to have permission to be angry and hate on people. Anything that interupts that fun is just sidelined, because it's unimportant.
The real answer of why - if it turns out Trump is currently cheating with Loomer, or has cognitive decline, or is a russian plant - it doesn't matter to MAGA is because they just want to keep having fun. Imo it's not even about politics, or conspiracy theories or permission structures. MAGA is just popcorn entertainment. And on a personal level, there are very few easily-traceable impacts on their lives. It's WWE but politics.
Reminds me of that great Aussie comic on US gun rights: just admit it - guns are fun. And you like fun.
Keeping up with the kardashians but as a whole country - didn’t understand the appeal of the former and probably why I don’t understand the latter
Black nazi porn chatroom?
He managed to perfectly match his tie color to his face. Impressive.
Florida was never as red as it looked in 2022. Just like Pennsylvania wasn’t as blue as it looked in 2022. The quality of the candidates, certain issues (in FL: Covid and books related) can sometimes make things look different than they actually are. To me, FL is a 5-point state, not 10-15. In other words, what we see now is the norm, 2022 was the exception.
https://virtualtout.com/
No idea how they can win by anything close to 447 but still interesting that his model is predicting a clear win for Harris.
No idea how they can win by anything close to 447 but still interesting that his model is predicting a clear win for Harris.
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Get the Mormons on side. They have a word class ground game....
So... who's left for Trump?
Yeah...no.
Barrack Obama won 365 in 2008, if you take Biden map in 2020 and add IA FL OH TX NC and the extra vote in Maine you get 413, that's already La La Land. To get to 447 you need to sweep the whole of the Bible Belt and then some in addition to all that.
And betting/prediction market is frankly worthless. It's just a reflection of popular sentiment, Biden odds jumped to 3/1 from 7/4 after election night 2020, for instance, for a long time. Only dropped after the big batch from Milwaukee came in and he took the lead in Wisconsin.
It would be a surprise if TX didn't stay red at Presidential level, but would it be if Cruz lost the Senate gig?
Impossible. I think Harris might perform slightly better than Biden in Florida but it's not a state the Dems can realistically win imo and the campaign spending there reflects that.
As long as Harris gets 270 votes of three electoral college I'm pleased. Every additional vote is just a bonus.
Looks good. Anything but a thumping win for Harris would be an embarrassment for the US. I hope it comes off.
I've been following this site and it always fills me with hope! I fully expect (and wish/pray for etc) a Harris win with some Maga shennanigans, but I can't see how she ever reaches the electoral college numbers these guys are predicting.
https://www.axios.com/2024/09/17/trump-drug-prices-gop-concerns
GOP trying to remove the cap on drug prices that dems set with the IRA, they sure have their priority set straight.
Party of death, imagine actually hating your own voters this much.
GOP trying to remove the cap on drug prices that dems set with the IRA, they sure have their priority set straight.
- Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Ga.) said the IRA drug pricing provisions are "the worst legislation I've ever witnessed in 10 years in Congress and 10 years in the state legislature" and he "absolutely" wants to repeal them.
- Asked about Trump's criticism of pharma, Carter said "that's OK, pharma needs to be criticized," but it should not be done in a way that is "destroying research and development."
- Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said he "100%" wants to repeal the negotiation provisions, while other drug pricing sections of the law would need to be evaluated based on whether they have "a positive impact on business."
Party of death, imagine actually hating your own voters this much.