2024 U.S. Elections | Trump wins

Raoul said:
That's true about her communications skills. She's certainly no Obama to say the least, but she does seem to have matured quite a bit from the 2019/20 run.
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Even Obama has a penchant for sophistry in interviews/press conferences.

I don’t know which current politician in the Democratic Party is capable of this



But, surely it isn’t impossible for Ivy League educated lawyers to communicate in the same vein, even if not as good?
 
nimic said:
Two soldiers with a flag means Russia is communist? Ultra-nationalist Christian conservatism doesn't scream "socialism" to me.
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Huge nostalgia for Soviet Union coupled with ultranationalism and a hard on for Russian empire.
 
InfiniteBoredom said:
Watching Harris at NABJ and she’s flailing badly on Gaza, in a friendly setting. Clips from this won’t win her any votes with the anti war crowd. The journalists are pushing her point blank on her policy difference, if any, with Biden, and she’s just repeating ‘we must get the deal done’ - which isn’t happening.
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There is no policy difference. She also pro-genocide, what is she supposed to say?
 
JD Vance defending Laura Loomer making racist comments against Indians, Ben Shapiro simping for the Nazi rhetoric of Donald Trump and all the American political establishment caping for Israel shooting American citizens in the face.

When did having a spine and standing up for you and yours become so passe.
 
Who does Trump even appeal to at this point?

In 2016 he positioned himself - accurately or not - as the anti-establishment, anti-war, isolationist candidate. He attracted younger eyes by firing off a few zingers in historically stuffy debates. His campaign had a string of memorable slogans: make American great again, drain the swamp, lock her up etc.

Nowadays he very much seems to be part of the Republican establishment. His anti-war, isolationist stance is massively toned down (although apparently still too much for genuinely evil neocons like Dan Crenshaw, John Bolton et al). He's nearly 80 and has clearly lost a step mentally. He was even pretty boring during both debates this cycle. The campaign seems non-existent - the 'Comrade Kamala' slogan just doesn't land at all, sounds very silly, I don't think even he believes it.

Come to think of it, both sides caricatures of each other - 'Comrade Kamala, furthest left candidate ever' v 'Death of Democracy, existential threat' - are much cooler than either of the candidates could ever hope to be. In reality it's just establishment Neolib vs establishment dull old Republican.
 
Martial'sEmergingSmile said:
Who does Trump even appeal to at this point?

In 2016 he positioned himself - accurately or not - as the anti-establishment, anti-war, isolationist candidate. He attracted younger eyes by firing off a few zingers in historically stuffy debates. His campaign had a string of memorable slogans: make American great again, drain the swamp, lock her up etc.

Nowadays he very much seems to be part of the Republican establishment. His anti-war, isolationist stance is massively toned down (although apparently still too much for genuinely evil neocons like Dan Crenshaw, John Bolton et al). He's nearly 80 and has clearly lost a step mentally. He was even pretty boring during both debates this cycle. The campaign seems non-existent - the 'Comrade Kamala' slogan just doesn't land at all, sounds very silly, I don't think even he believes it.

Come to think of it, both sides caricatures of each other - 'Comrade Kamala, furthest left candidate ever' v 'Death of Democracy, existential threat' - are much cooler than either of the candidates could ever hope to be. In reality it's just establishment Neolib vs establishment dull old Republican.
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Same people he appealed to in 2016 only they've become a cult since then and never question dear leader, whereas in 2016 they still had a little bit of autonomy and thought they were just sticking it to the establishment.
 
Martial'sEmergingSmile said:
Who does Trump even appeal to at this point?
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Generally people over 60, rural populace and most blue collar workers support Trump. Add in the usual Christian conservatives/abortion/LGBTQ and NRA/gun people.

But he does has key issues trending in his favor this time around...inflation and immigration.

- Inflation as at 2022 was probably the highest in past 10 years. The cost of essential foods (milk etc) and gas have hit most people hard and though it's trending down now, it still higher than it was under Trump. Easy to blame it all on Biden.
- Illegal Immigration and perceived crimes and job loss resulting from it have been blamed on Dems too. This has been the case back in 2016/2020 and nothing has changed.

Though I don't understand why, but there has been a swing in black voters towards Trump from about 12% - 17%. With razor thin election margins, not sure how much this will weigh.
 
Edgar Allan Pillow said:
Generally people over 60, rural populace and most blue collar workers support Trump. Add in the usual Christian conservatives/abortion/LGBTQ and NRA/gun people.

But he does has key issues trending in his favor this time around...inflation and immigration.

- Inflation as at 2022 was probably the highest in past 10 years. The cost of essential foods (milk etc) and gas have hit most people hard and though it's trending down now, it still higher than it was under Trump. Easy to blame it all on Biden.
- Illegal Immigration and perceived crimes and job loss resulting from it have been blamed on Dems too. This has been the case back in 2016/2020 and nothing has changed.

Though I don't understand why, but there has been a swing in black voters towards Trump from about 12% - 17%. With razor thin election margins, not sure how much this will weigh.
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The key is what you said. Easy to pin it to Biden/Harris. Because it is. General voter has short memory and little economic critical thinking and they will blame the incumbent rightly or not

His issue is that his cult are not enough so he has to go with vote supression. Because this elections, any true independent would not vote for this trainwreck. At most not vote for Harris, that is why vote supression will be key
 
4bars said:
The key is what you said. Easy to pin it to Biden/Harris. Because it is. General voter has short memory and little economic critical thinking and they will blame the incumbent rightly or not

His issue is that his cult are not enough so he has to go with vote supression. Because this elections, any true independent would not vote for this trainwreck. At most not vote for Harris, that is why vote supression will be key
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Vote supression, in what way, just disencouraging people from voting in general, or by actual feckery like they do in some states, like Texas?

The latter is a bit more difficult for them to do this time around, considering dems have a good amount of control is some of the crucial swing states, after 2020 and 2022 elections.
 
Morty_ said:
Vote supression, in what way, just disencouraging people from voting in general, or by actual feckery like they do in some states, like Texas?

The latter is a bit more difficult for them to do this time around, considering dems have a good amount of control is some of the crucial swing states, after 2020 and 2022 elections.
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In general, because the cult will vote rain or shine. They need the meh engaged independents not to vote bc he alienate most of them with the 6 jan and his more than 2016-20 unhinged rambling.

Harris getting much better results than Biden is not because this that now will vote for harris would vote for Trump but they would not vote at all.

That is Biden apressing votes himself. Trump team doesnt need to convince to change votes but make look Harris so bad, that they will not vote for her

Last 2-3 weeks will be crucial
 
Morty_ said:
Vote supression, in what way, just disencouraging people from voting in general, or by actual feckery like they do in some states, like Texas?

The latter is a bit more difficult for them to do this time around, considering dems have a good amount of control is some of the crucial swing states, after 2020 and 2022 elections.
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Do they? A number of these swing states have GOP legislatures
 
Red in STL said:
Do they? A number of these swing states have GOP legislatures
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This is largely an overblown problem, i think, as most states, even some traditionally republican ones like Georgia, certified their elections, even if results wasn't what they wanted.

But, dems did make some noticable improvements in swing states in the midterms, mainly Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Arizona.
 
Red in STL said:
Do they? A number of these swing states have GOP legislatures
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PA- split
MI - Dems
WI - heavily gerrymandered to the GOP. This is one to watch as the state SC ordered new maps and there is a good chance they loses control of at least one of the chambers. If that happens then anything is on the table. State legislators are sworn in on January 3rd, so not sure who will certify.
NC -see WI, without the hope of new maps.
GA - heavy R
AZ - R
NV - D
 
Morty_ said:
This is largely an overblown problem, i think, as most states, even some traditionally republican ones like Georgia, certified their elections, even if results wasn't what they wanted.

But, dems did make some noticable improvements in swing states in the midterms, mainly Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Arizona.
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GA may have certified it last time but they've introduced some pretty insidous election laws since aimed at suppressing voters that generally vote Democratic, GOP states have also put in place some very iffy election officals that have quite a big say in what's counted and what's not, it's not an overblown problem
 
State legislature plays the most important part, but Secretary of state is also a position to be aware of.

They ultimately certify the election results, right? Dems have SoS in most of the swing states as far as i know, so, what happens if the legislature and the secretary of state should come to clash?

I have no idea how that would turn out, goes to state supreme court?
 
Edgar Allan Pillow said:
Inflation as at 2022 was probably the highest in past 10 years. The cost of essential foods (milk etc) and gas have hit most people hard and though it's trending down now, it still higher than it was under Trump. Easy to blame it all on Biden.
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Only idiots believe this. Inflation doesn't suddenly comes out of nowhere.
His failed COVID response and stupid fiscal policies (free money for all while production and supply chains were interrupted) during the pandemic caused the inflation.
 
B. Munich said:
Only idiots believe this. Inflation doesn't suddenly comes out of nowhere.
His failed COVID response and stupid fiscal policies (free money for all while production and supply chains were interrupted) during the pandemic caused the inflation.
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There are loads of idiots though.

If it's more expensive then whoever is in charge at the time gets the blame, that's just the way it works when you don't apply critical thinking.
 
B. Munich said:
Only idiots believe this. Inflation doesn't suddenly comes out of nowhere.
His failed COVID response and stupid fiscal policies (free money for all while production and supply chains were interrupted) during the pandemic caused the inflation.
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I just don't believe they can shape ads and messaging to get this across to the bit of the electorate that needs the info. Which is an indictment of the electorate.
 
Beachryan said:
I just don't believe they can shape ads and messaging to get this across to the bit of the electorate that needs the info. Which is an indictment of the electorate.
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This.

Facts are gas prices and food prices were low under Trump and high under Biden. Housing has pretty much become unaffordable most of first time home buyers now with no end in sight..... And here you are saying giving free money was a mistake.

It just doesn't land well irrespective of the underlying causes or actual truth. These are custom for advantage when running a campaign for Trump.

It's just a blessing the imbecile is going on about eating dogs and cats rather than hammer Dems on economy.
 
Edgar Allan Pillow said:
It's just a blessing the imbecile is going on about eating dogs and cats rather than hammer Dems on economy.
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That's because he doesn't understand it in any way shape or form. Just look at his ridiculous Presidency adding trillions to the debt from bad policies and huge overspending including $20 Billion to farmers bailing them out after causing their problems in the first place with his stupid and unnecessary trade war with China and the tarrifs he imposed.

He will just do the same again, only worse this time if he slaps tarrifs on countries for anything he can think of. The trouble is you are dealing with highly uneducated and gullible people who believe everything he says, just because he says it. He's a billionaire so he must be right.

I heard an argument the other day with one of the biggest morons I've ever listened to. These two blokes in their 60's were discussing the debate and one said Trump was clueless because he had no policies or ideas he just rants and raves about problems yet has no idea how to fix them yet he just blames it all on the Dems. He mentioned the 'ive got concepts' quote and the other bloke replied and said 'Well he's right, why should he have policies yet, he's not President, he doesn't need to have policies until he's elected so he's perfectly right saying he just has concepts' He followed it up with, 'at least he has concepts', that woman has plans than haven't worked and won't work'

I just wanted to scream. :lol:

If that's here in the UK, you can imagine how much more widespread that line of thinking is in the US.
 
To me there two avenues the Dems should be doing in parallel:
1. Getting her policies and agenda visible (somehow, maybe she needs to say she'll bite the head off a bat or something)
2. Hammer Trump on his actual record. I'd just have him saying he'll do stuff from his 2016 rallies, and then somberly summarising what actually happened. "While running for President, Trump said 1,452 times that he would build a wall, and that Mexico would pay for it. He did not. In fact, only 2.1 miles of wall were ever built, stopping exaclty 0 border crossings. Trump doesn't deliver, cons never do." Then do all the other stuff he promised. Make it about his inability to actually achieve anything. So he can make whatever promises he wants, we all know its empty words.
 


You can't make this up, he is now essentially saying, "elect me, and i will fix the problem that i created as president".
 
Edgar Allan Pillow said:
This.

Facts are gas prices and food prices were low under Trump and high under Biden. Housing has pretty much become unaffordable most of first time home buyers now with no end in sight..... And here you are saying giving free money was a mistake.

It just doesn't land well irrespective of the underlying causes or actual truth. These are custom for advantage when running a campaign for Trump.

It's just a blessing the imbecile is going on about eating dogs and cats rather than hammer Dems on economy.
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It's the reason I think generally incumbents are going to be less and less successful in national elections. The media blame them for the current ills, never providing context or explanations, and people do the same.

That said, with gas prices actually falling right now, there might be a route to leverage that. Unemployment is the lowest it's ever been, gas prices back to 20XX levels, inflation down for 3 months in a row - we were left in a disaster by Trump, but we're finally coming out of it. Or something like that.
 
Beachryan said:
I just don't believe they can shape ads and messaging to get this across to the bit of the electorate that needs the info. Which is an indictment of the electorate.
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Absolutely. I don't even think the electorate can generally grasp that the effects of policies enacted by one president are often not seen until the next president in in power. It's more common to just draw a straight line between current gas prices and who the sitting POTUS is. Trying to educate the electorate would be a fools errand.
 
langster said:
that woman has plans than haven't worked and won't work'
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Beachryan said:
1. Getting her policies and agenda visible (somehow, maybe she needs to say she'll bite the head off a bat or something)
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Agree mostly. I just don't think there's anything concrete that Kamala can say that'll bring down inflation. But then this is politics, easier to promise heaven and forget about it. All that talk about tax credits and middle class is pure fluff. I don't see any much options for her to distance on Bidenomics.

But on Immigration and Crime, she has traditionally taken a hard-line stance (for a Democrat), but the message gets diluted given the dumpster fire laws in California, she represents.

It's been a bland campaign and needs something catchy to Kickstart it again.
 
Beachryan said:
It's the reason I think generally incumbents are going to be less and less successful in national elections. The media blame them for the current ills, never providing context or explanations, and people do the same.

That said, with gas prices actually falling right now, there might be a route to leverage that. Unemployment is the lowest it's ever been, gas prices back to 20XX levels, inflation down for 3 months in a row - we were left in a disaster by Trump, but we're finally coming out of it. Or something like that.
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re: the media, depends of which channel you are watching, there are plenty that explain what the issues are and just as many who don't

Gas prices are still higher than when Trump was in charge and so is inflation, food inflation is stil way higher, the Dems are and will get the blame for this even though it isn't really their fault
 
I find it hard to believe WI is only 1 point. I think she wins the state comfortably, and by comfortably I mean by enough to avoid the most extreme maga shenanigans.
 
WI_Red said:
I find it hard to believe WI is only 1 point. I think she wins the state comfortably, and by comfortably I mean by enough to avoid the most extreme maga shenanigans.
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If anything you could swap WI and PA, right?
 
langster said:
Just look at his ridiculous Presidency adding trillions to the debt from bad policies and huge overspending including $20 Billion to farmers bailing them out after causing their problems in the first place with his stupid and unnecessary trade war with China and the tarrifs he imposed.
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All of it contributed to the inflation the Biden Administration had to fight off.
Tariffs are always inflationary. If the average American is too stupid to understand this, than good night America.

langster said:
The trouble is you are dealing with highly uneducated and gullible people who believe everything he says, just because he says it. He's a billionaire so he must be right.
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I'm living in the Philippines and here upcountry people are indeed uneducated and voted for the idiot Duterte in 2016.
But common we are talking about the US, the global super power. Even in rural states people got some basic education, which should be more than enough to understand that China or the EU won't pay for Trump's tariffs but the US consumers. This isn't rocket science.
 
B. Munich said:
I'm living in the Philippines and here upcountry people are indeed uneducated and voted for the idiot Duterte in 2016.
But common we are talking about the US, the global super power. Even in rural states people got some basic education, which should be more than enough to understand that China or the EU won't pay for Trump's tariffs but the US consumers. This isn't rocket science.
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Trump said he'd make them pay, so they'll pay.

(Is the kind of logical thinking were dealing with).
 
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