It's such a weird dynamic in American presidential politics that a good share of the electorate doesn't really follow what's going on. I don't even live in the country, and I can hardly look away. So yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if polls are really inaccurate or change a lot over the next month.
a lot of people simply wanted sleepy joe to leave after his first term. Didn't have to hate him, but he was obviously not a great pick for a second term. He should've made the decision not to contest when the primaries started.
Okay, thank you. It could be me not remembering well, but I don’t remember being typically pleased after seeing a Sienna poll.The Sienna NYT poll is ranked #1 on the FiveThirtyEight site. With that said, the two most accurate polls in 2020 that correctly predicted the result with the highest degree of accuracy where the IDB/TIPP and the Hill/Harris X polls. They had Biden winning the popular by 4% and once all the mail ins were counted, he won by 4.5 .
Worth noting that every single poll except Rasmussen have a Dem bias and nearly all of them got it wrong in 2020. That suggests to me that Dem leaning polls are still trying to work out what the appropriate sample rate of Dems should be. Yet another reason to look at trends, rather than single polls over the next 2.5 months.
My money's always been on prescription tranquilisers.
Wonder what @AfonsoAlves makes of this.
Surely she doesn’t have to be an inspirational candidate galvanising people to vote for her? She just needs to be competent enough that when Trump galvanises enough people to vote against him they don’t stay at home because they have issues with the alternative. Harris needs to just be completely meh - do nothing controversial or remotely interesting and logic indicates she has a real chance of winning.
I think your personal opinion that Harris is a poor candidate might be driving your views a bit too much. The last time Democratic primary voters rejected a former VP as their presidential nominee was over 50 years ago. They have made their last three VPs their nominees: Biden, Gore, and Mondale. Biden and Gore had previously ran in presidential primaries and "not fared well," before comfortably winning the nomination as VPs. Historical precedent suggests that she would have probably won the nomination.
Tbf the counter argument is Biden was muscled out in 2016 when he was the sitting vice president.
Didn't he decline to run, because his son had just passed away?
That’s the official line, behind the scene it’s pretty much a known fact that Obama made a deal with the Clintons and supported HRC over him. She was de facto nominee as early as 2014.
He was muscled out by internal party politics, not the voters, so all we have is the hypothetical possibility that he would have lost to Clinton if he'd ran.
And past vice presidents became nominees largely on those internal party politics.
I disagree with this narrative about Biden 2020. He did poorly in Iowa and New Hampshire for various reasons, but improved in Nevada and then won South Carolina. At that point Biden had 41 delegates to Sanders' 53. There was no mass drop out before the South Carolina primary; only Buttigieg and Klobuchar dropped out, after the SC primary, their campaigns essentially dead at that point. What happened in 2020 IMO is that Biden was a highly respected former VP with high favorables. Voters were willing to consider other options due to this weaknesses (age, then gender/race), but without an obvious 'better' option, they went for the safe choice.
She won’t because as powerful as she is, politics is real power and she’s not going to alienate a significant percentage of her fanbase who are Republican or Trump supporters or who’s family members are.
i couldnt care for Swift one way or another, but i would pay very good money to see her and trump have a debate. and i think if there was bandwagon started, Trump is enough of a idiot / egotist to go for it.
Didn’t she endorse Biden in 2020?
She has done it before and spoke about not caring who it alienates in her documentary. And she may be forced too if Trump supporters stupidly try to use her music or likeness with AI etc. But, if I was an organizer I would at least try and get rights to play a song during the DNC. Cause she would never allow it for a trump rally or RNC.
If nothing else do you not think her speeches have been rock solid this month? That's not a small differentiator from both her opponent and her predecessor.
