2024 U.S. Elections | Trump wins

RG77 said:
The fact Trump will get over 70 million votes is just so bizarre.

I know politics isn’t for everyone and most people don’t interact much, but even then... The question is: what happens when Trump is replaced in the future by someone just as bad but competent? How do you fix this issue of voters not turning up and being so low on information?
Click to expand...
I’ve posted this before, but who do you think that is? They need someone charismatic to fill his boots to turn out the MAGA voters, and the two that have arguably come closest (DeSantis and Vance) are charisma voids.

Then you have someone like Haley who is just the normal Republican war hawk type, who threatened him most electorally.

My point is that the next Republican nominee may not be of the crazy MAGA variant. Could be a Haley type, or a snake oil salesman like Ramaswamy.
 
Mike Smalling said:
I’ve posted this before, but who do you think that is? They need someone charismatic to fill his boots to turn out the MAGA voters, and the two that have arguably come closest (DeSantis and Vance) are charisma voids.

Then you have someone like Haley who is just the normal Republican war hawk type, who threatened him most electorally.

My point is that the next Republican nominee may not be of the crazy MAGA variant. Could be a Haley type, or a snake oil salesman like Ramaswamy.
Click to expand...

There's no one to replace Trump, simply because he and his MAGA branding are a cult of personality built atop the existence of one person. Once he goes, the percolating traditional Republican ecosystem that have been holding their collective breath just below the surface for the better part of a decade, will have to slowly regenerate the traditional Republican brand around lower taxes, lower spending, business friendly type model of the post Reagan pre-Trump years. All of the people who latched onto Trump's coat tails during the MAGA years will at that point be forced to retreat back into traditional conservative policies that don't revolve around paying fealty to the emotional whims of one leader.
 
Raoul said:
There's no one to replace Trump, simply because he and his MAGA branding are simply a cult of personality built atop the existence of one person. Once he goes, the percolating traditional Republican ecosystem that have been holding their collective breath just below the surface for the better part of a decade, will have to slowly regenerate the traditional Republican brand around lower taxes, lower spending, business friendly type model of the post Reagan pre-Trump years. All of the people who latched onto Trump's coat tails during the MAGA years will at that point be forced to retreat back into traditional conservative policies that don't revolve around paying fealty to the emotional whims of one leader.
Click to expand...
Totally agree with this take. Every major, traditional power broker in the GOP wanted a different candidate this time around but cowed to the (insane) base. The GOP today, from top to bottom is the maga-cult. That will change over time, when the Orange leaves this mortal plane, if not before.

From there, it's hard to know. The demo of the people most engaged by MAGA is shrinking as a proportion of the electorate. Even if you add all the incels on top, it pales in comparison to the way the country is headed.

You'd think that would motivate the GOP to come up with a platform that would appeal to the future but, erm, they've not exactly left the first team on the pitch. When MTG, JD Vance and Jim Jordan are key figures in the party, there's barely 3 brain cells to bounce about.
 
Raoul said:
There's no one to replace Trump, simply because he and his MAGA branding are simply a cult of personality built atop the existence of one person. Once he goes, the percolating traditional Republican ecosystem that have been holding their collective breath just below the surface for the better part of a decade, will have to slowly regenerate the traditional Republican brand around lower taxes, lower spending, business friendly type model of the post Reagan pre-Trump years. All of the people who latched onto Trump's coat tails during the MAGA years will at that point be forced to retreat back into traditional conservative policies that don't revolve around paying fealty to the emotional whims of one leader.
Click to expand...
Exactly, but there will surely be many attempts to become the next king using Trump’s methods as well. There will be lots of infighting and mud throwing, I imagine, because all these freaks are egomaniacs. I also think some will publicly denounce Trump quite soon after he loses power or dies.

I think it could be glorious.
 
Mike Smalling said:
I’ve posted this before, but who do you think that is? They need someone charismatic to fill his boots to turn out the MAGA voters, and the two that have arguably come closest (DeSantis and Vance) are charisma voids.

Then you have someone like Haley who is just the normal Republican war hawk type, who threatened him most electorally.

My point is that the next Republican nominee may not be of the crazy MAGA variant. Could be a Haley type, or a snake oil salesman like Ramaswamy.
Click to expand...

Raoul said:
There's no one to replace Trump, simply because he and his MAGA branding are simply a cult of personality built atop the existence of one person. Once he goes, the percolating traditional Republican ecosystem that have been holding their collective breath just below the surface for the better part of a decade, will have to slowly regenerate the traditional Republican brand around lower taxes, lower spending, business friendly type model of the post Reagan pre-Trump years. All of the people who latched onto Trump's coat tails during the MAGA years will at that point be forced to retreat back into traditional conservative policies that don't revolve around paying fealty to the emotional whims of one leader.
Click to expand...

There is a clip of McCain defending Obama; some lady who was claiming he was the worst or whatever. These people will be still there in 4/8/12 or however many years. And they are seemingly in great numbers. Maybe not enough to win the electionon their own but certainly significant. Add the poorly informed average voter and you get these races.

While true that there is no direct replacement at the moment for Trump and it is a cult at this point; my thinking is more about the ‘next guy’ who could potentially pop up. It might not be in 2028 or even 2032. But there is a fair chance another one comes along and what things can be done in the meantime to better inform people, have them show up to vote etc.

Trump showed how fragile the institutions are and all it takes is one incompetent dumbass to weaken it. Now imagine a competent one…
 
Beachryan said:
Totally agree with this take. Every major, traditional power broker in the GOP wanted a different candidate this time around but cowed to the (insane) base. The GOP today, from top to bottom is the maga-cult. That will change over time, when the Orange leaves this mortal plane, if not before.

From there, it's hard to know. The demo of the people most engaged by MAGA is shrinking as a proportion of the electorate. Even if you add all the incels on top, it pales in comparison to the way the country is headed.

You'd think that would motivate the GOP to come up with a platform that would appeal to the future but, erm, they've not exactly left the first team on the pitch. When MTG, JD Vance and Jim Jordan are key figures in the party, there's barely 3 brain cells to bounce about.
Click to expand...

Agreed. There MAGA grifters like MTG and the others will find themselves battling for relevance after Trump exits the political scene.
 
RG77 said:
There is a clip of McCain defending Obama; some lady who was claiming he was the worst or whatever. These people will be still there in 4/8/12 or however many years. And they are seemingly in great numbers. Maybe not enough to win the electionon their own but certainly significant. Add the poorly informed average voter and you get these races.

While true that there is no direct replacement at the moment for Trump and it is a cult at this point; my thinking is more about the ‘next guy’ who could potentially pop up. It might not be in 2028 or even 2032. But there is a fair chance another one comes along and what things can be done in the meantime to better inform people, have them show up to vote etc.

Trump showed how fragile the institutions are and all it takes is one incompetent dumbass to weaken it. Now imagine a competent one…
Click to expand...
Competence would probably be a turn-off to most of these voters. They are dipshits, and therefore are enthralled by the dipshit king. Competence doesn’t go hand in hand with Trump’s unique kind of crazy.
 
Mike Smalling said:
Exactly, but there will surely be many attempts to become the next king using Trump’s methods as well. There will be lots of infighting and mud throwing, I imagine, because all these freaks are egomaniacs. I also think some will publicly denounce Trump quite soon after he loses power or dies.

I think it could be glorious.
Click to expand...

I look at the way things have unfolded through the lens of Trump's interests.

Trump has been the focus of a litany of legal cases, any number of which are a threat to his freedom - especially the federal cases. Therefore if he could win the presidency again, he could cancel the federal cases and use his executive status to get SCOTUS support to challenge the state level cases into submission for the following four years. Thereby he could not only re-gain power, but also snuff out all legal challenges. That was almost certainly his mindset on running, otherwise he was perfectly content spending the rest of this life playing golf.

If he loses the election, he once again becomes exposed to the legal cases since they would proceed in early 2025 and he wouldn't be able to use the presidency as a shield to duck out of being held accountable.
 
calodo2003 said:
Click to expand...

HRC and Biden both won the Hispanic vote by 30pts +

There’s still time obviously, but 19 is nothing to crow about, and my hunch is Harris will get a lower share this time so she will need to find extra votes elsewhere, Biden won Latino men by 19 pts, I think she gets less than +15, maybe 10.
 
InfiniteBoredom said:
HRC and Biden both won the Hispanic vote by 30pts +

There’s still time obviously, but 19 is nothing to crow about, and my hunch is Harris will get a lower share this time so she will need to find extra votes elsewhere, Biden won Latino men by 19 pts, I think she gets less than +15, maybe 10.
Click to expand...
It's more about slowing the Latino bleed from the Dems than anything.
 
RG77 said:
The fact Trump will get over 70 million votes is just so bizarre.

I know politics isn’t for everyone and most people don’t interact much, but even then... The question is: what happens when Trump is replaced in the future by someone just as bad but competent? How do you fix this issue of voters not turning up and being so low on information?
Click to expand...
A good start would be to reintroduce the Fairness Doctrine, which would shut down Fox News’ sewer pipe overnight. Another step would be to overturn Citizens United, which would hobble dark money groups. These two actions would change how information is disseminated, and since many Trumpers get their news only from the Fox News Cinematic Universe, it would have a large effect.

Democrats taking control of both houses would help, because we have a bottleneck through which unbiased information cannot pass. Republican states do things like ban books, force school textbooks to include propaganda, and refuse to join things like the ACA/Obamacare and sell lies to their constituents about it.

Returning the marginal tax rates to even Reagan-era levels would not only refill public coffers but also curtail the outsized influence of the oligarchs.

Lastly, it’s really up to the Democrats to create a narrative that inspires as well as informs. Things like, if you enjoyed your weekend, thank a union member. Etc
InfiniteBoredom said:
HRC and Biden both won the Hispanic vote by 30pts +

There’s still time obviously, but 19 is nothing to crow about, and my hunch is Harris will get a lower share this time so she will need to find extra votes elsewhere, Biden won Latino men by 19 pts, I think she gets less than +15, maybe 10.
Click to expand...
Glass half empty kinda guy.
 
Wing Attack Plan R said:
Glass half empty kinda guy.
Click to expand...
More like check if it’s beer or piss in my glass kinda guy.

It’s entirely possible that Harris keeps up the momentum without any hiccup and romp to the finish line of 320 EVs on vibes alone, but her number at this moment isn’t bigger than Clinton 2016 or Biden 2020, and those weren’t exactly free.

There’s also the fact that 1 month ago this place was absolutely despondent after the debate, assassination attempt and RNC, so who the feck knows what next month will bring?
 
InfiniteBoredom said:
More like check if it’s beer or piss in my glass kinda guy.

It’s entirely possible that Harris keeps up the momentum without any hiccup and romp to the finish line of 320 EVs on vibes alone, but her number at this moment isn’t bigger than Clinton 2016 or Biden 2020, and those weren’t exactly free.

There’s also the fact that 1 month ago this place was absolutely despondent after the debate, assassination attempt and RNC, so who the feck knows what next month will bring?
Click to expand...
If there's piss in your glass, you should probably find a new local because the landlord is dropping hints.
 
Wibble said:
Preaching to the converted won't win this election. Especially when he has become even more unhinged since Biden dropped out.
Click to expand...

Many of those people are only eligible to vote for this first time this year. So it's all about getting them to come out and vote. Reaching them via YouTube is pretty smart, because they may not be watching rallys on TV.
 
RG77 said:
The fact Trump will get over 70 million votes is just so bizarre.

I know politics isn’t for everyone and most people don’t interact much, but even then... The question is: what happens when Trump is replaced in the future by someone just as bad but competent? How do you fix this issue of voters not turning up and being so low on information?
Click to expand...
You fund public schools and education, but the republicans would lose votes doing that so.
 
RG77 said:
The fact Trump will get over 70 million votes is just so bizarre.

I know politics isn’t for everyone and most people don’t interact much, but even then... The question is: what happens when Trump is replaced in the future by someone just as bad but competent? How do you fix this issue of voters not turning up and being so low on information?
Click to expand...

Trump can't easily be replaced. Part of his appeal comes from how extraordinary flawed he is. That also gives him cover for all the crazy things he does. A lot of Trump voters think it is all exaggerated, hyperbole and too absurd to be true.

In the past 5 years newsarticles have claimed that he; is a Russian asset, stole top secret documents, planned a coup, is an insurrectionist, a rapist, a wannabe dictator, a conspiracy nut, someone who knowingly lies from the podium, is a cheater, is a con man, is a narcissist, is really stupid, wants to end democracy, wants to impose a christo-fascist dictatorship- but is not Christian, is racist, was in bed with domestic terrorists, might be suffering signs of dementia, is dangerous, is the American Hitler, is incompetent, is a bad business man, is a felon, was Epstein's best friend, spent a lot of time on Epstein's Island, is incoherent, is guilty of hundreds of crimes - yet always slips away, doesn't pay his checks, inspires unatural levels of loyalty, was connected to the mob, is only out for himself, and much much more.

That is a lot of contradictions and absurdities for people to get their heads around. He is like a cartoon character.
 
RG77 said:
The fact Trump will get over 70 million votes is just so bizarre.

I know politics isn’t for everyone and most people don’t interact much, but even then... The question is: what happens when Trump is replaced in the future by someone just as bad but competent? How do you fix this issue of voters not turning up and being so low on information?
Click to expand...
Trump is "competent" that's why people here don't want him to be president and why conservatives want him to be president.
 
Raoul said:
Agreed. There MAGA grifters like MTG and the others will find themselves battling for relevance after Trump exits the political scene.
Click to expand...
A way to think about MAGA is as a millennial fever, like a cargo cult. It has a life arc. As it dies it enters a death spiral. Then all is quiet till the next outbreak
 
It’s less about Harris doing anything really positive or exciting, and more about the fact that a lot of people didn’t want to vote for Biden - either because he was too old, or too pro-Israel, or whatever. All those voters now have an actual viable candidate.

It’s not really that different to Corbyn and Starmer in the UK, with the Tories doing their bit as the increasingly right wing fanatics.
 
Tincanalley said:
A way to think about MAGA is as a millennial fever, like a cargo cult. It has a life arc. As it dies it enters a death spiral. Then all is quiet till the next outbreak
Click to expand...

Agreed. We are definitely in the very late stages of it at the moment imo.
 
gaffs said:
Many of those people are only eligible to vote for this first time this year. So it's all about getting them to come out and vote. Reaching them via YouTube is pretty smart, because they may not be watching rallys on TV.
Click to expand...
100% they are not watching rallies on TV. It’s the YiuTubes gonna win it, innit.
 
Raoul said:
Agreed. We are definitely in the very late stages of it at the moment imo.
Click to expand...

That would be nice. The demographics certainly aren't in their favour. Nothing would be better for US politics than the Republicans being forced to re-evaluate their policies and move towards the centre.
 
Laurencio said:
That would be nice. The demographics certainly aren't in their favour. Nothing would be better for US politics than the Republicans being forced to re-evaluate their policies and move towards the centre.
Click to expand...
I wonder how a move to the centre would even play out for the Republicans. Would the MAGA base just...shut up and go back to voting for the Romney's and McCain type of politicians? After all these years of attacking them?
 
VorZakone said:
I wonder how a move to the centre would even play out for the Republicans. Would the MAGA base just...shut up and go back to voting for the Romney's and McCain type of politicians? After all these years of attacking them?
Click to expand...

It wouldn’t really be a move to the center as it would a return to classic fiscal conservatism.
 
Raoul said:
It wouldn’t really be a move to the center as it would a return to classic fiscal conservatism.
Click to expand...
Sure, but the MAGA base has gotten used to Trump spouting their rhetoric & beliefs. Can that base muster up the enthusiasm to go back to voting for the "traditional establishment" Republicans?
 
Isn't there enough MAGA types to start a new party instead of going back to Republicans former one of thinking, Tea Party doesn't exactly do that well but MAGA is more a established brand, could America even have a 3 party system?
 
VorZakone said:
Sure, but the MAGA base has gotten used to Trump spouting their rhetoric & beliefs. Can that base muster up the enthusiasm to go back to voting for the "traditional establishment" Republicans?
Click to expand...
How big is the MAGA base in reality?

A return to 'centrist' conservatism would be appealing to a lot independents that don't or, won't vote for Trump, add the never Trumpers, would that be close to the number of hard line MAGA's?
 
VorZakone said:
Sure, but the MAGA base has gotten used to Trump spouting their rhetoric & beliefs. Can that base muster up the enthusiasm to go back to voting for the "traditional establishment" Republicans?
Click to expand...

The base didn’t impose Maga on Trump. Rather he imposed it on them, and they took the bait thinking he was their ticket back into power. Therefore when he goes away, a large part of Maga sentiment goes with him leaving Republicans with little recourse than to vote for whichever conservative picks up the pieces in Trump’s absence. That could be anyone from DeSantis to Haley to Rubio to Youngkin.
 
Precaution said:
Isn't there enough MAGA types to start a new party instead of going back to Republicans former one of thinking, Tea Party doesn't exactly do that well but MAGA is more a established brand, could America even have a 3 party system?
Click to expand...
The US seems particularly unsuited to it happening, both as a voting system and a governing system.
 
Red in STL said:
How big is the MAGA base in reality?

A return to 'centrist' conservatism would be appealing to a lot independents that don't or, won't vote for Trump, add the never Trumpers, would that be close to the number of hard line MAGA's?
Click to expand...
I don't know but it strikes me as rather funny that the Trump-years get forgotten and that MAGA base just casually goes back to the Romney's. After all the rhetoric about "election integrity", "drain the swamp", "deepstate" and all the conspiracy theories around.

Then again, Rush Limbaugh and conservative talk radio with similar rhetoric was around decades ago so I guess the Trunp vibe isn't really new in that regard.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.