2024 U.S. Elections | Trump wins

Lichtman might be secretly praying Biden steps down, so he can weasel his way out of a prediction in this race.

God, i'm sick of hearing about him already.
 
Adisa said:
Is there a precedent for this, a sitting president dropping out this late?
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Not this late, no.

Others to not run…
James Polk - doubled the size of the U.S. & was in poor health so promised early that he wouldn’t seek a 2nd term

James Buchanan - had pledged to serve just 1 term during his inaugural address

Rutherford Hayes - had also promised to only serve 1 term as president & followed through on that

Teddy Roosevelt - considered his term taking over for the assassinated William McKinley his 1st term, so didn’t see reelection after his first elected term

Calvin Coolidge - followed in Teddy’s footsteps and considered his partial term taking over for the late Warren Harding as his 1st term, so also didn’t seek reelection after his first elected term

Harry Truman - ditto Teddy & Silent Cal even though the 22nd amendment would’ve allowed it
WI_Red said:
Not this late, but I think Johnson dropped out during the primaries. @Carolina Red would know best.
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Correct. LBJ removed himself from consideration on March 31st of the election year.
 
McGrathsipan said:
Trump can't belive his luck. It's like a movie playing out
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How so? He wants Biden to stay in the race, Biden out means its more up in the air who wins.

Biden's self-implosion at the debate might actually come back to bite Trump.
 
Morty_ said:
How so? He wants Biden to stay in the race, Biden out means its more up in the air who wins.

Biden's self-implosion at the debate might actually come back to bite Trump.
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Legal victories
Not being dead.
Biden in or Biden out is a win for Trump
 
If we assume for a moment that Biden drops out; what do we expect happens next?

Simply anoint Harris?

Doesn’t seem like there’s time for any kind of democratic approach to it.
 


Several people close to President Biden said on Thursday that they believe he has begun to accept the idea that he may not be able to win in November and may have to drop out of the race, bowing to the growing demands of many anxious members of his party.
One of the people close to him warned that the president had not yet made up his mind to leave the race after three weeks of insisting that almost nothing would drive him out. But another said that “reality is setting in,” and that it would not be a surprise if Mr. Biden made an announcement soon endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris as his replacement.
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I think Harris is too close to Biden to wash the smell off. She'll take all of his staff and advisers and run the same game. Also the press will eat her alive with all the talk of "did you undermine the President", "are you comfortable replacing your running mate". The election will come to a screeching halt, democrats will have no ability to get their message out.

Biden stepping down because of COVID is the golden goose of getting out of the race. You couldn't ask for a better excuse.

In terms of replacements, I get the impression America is sick of really old people looking like fools running their country. Whilst i'd always tend to a progressive running, I look at the options and basically if I was going "anti-biden" it would have to be buttigieg, whitmer or newsom. Younger, good speakers, charisma, sharp. Not my personal choices, but they are the establishment "anti-biden" group.

I don't know whom the progressives could really offer up to challenge those 3. It would have to be someone very young, sharp and not going to spend the entire election talking about socialism and NATO the whole time.
 
choiboyx012 said:
As an airhead, and as a mere diversity hire. But surprisingly a lot of females I know viewed her positively because of the fact she’s a female and minority. Not sure about the current sentiment though.
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Looking forward to Trump speeches eluding to Kamala dating Willie Brown, a common Republican meme that she slept her way to the top of CA politics.
 
TheGame said:
That may be the case but the reaction on social media from Republicans has been of racism and that she is deviating from the one true god (Jesus). I also question why she performs a Sikh prayer which is a religion of peace to some of the most dangerous right wing nutters going.
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Probably received a generous appearance fee.
 
For a bit of fun; everyone should remember that the one reliable method of determining a candidate's electability has always been "Who would the majority of Americans rather have a beer with". For 100 years the beer test has been remarkably consistent.

1920 - Larger than Life vs Media guy
1924 - Mr silent vs Mr Confederacy?
1928 - Clever guy vs A bit of a crook?
1932 - Mr Recession vs pleasant man
1936 - Great President vs Accountant
1940 - Great President vs FlipFlopper
1944 - Great President vs Mafia killler
1948 - Roosvelt VP vs Mafia killer
(Theory failed here)
1952 - A god damn hero vs Beauracrat
1956 - A god damn hero vs Beauracrat
1960 - The Coolest ever vs Ike's VP
1964 - Larger than life 2 vs Great guy
1968 - Ike's VP vs Experienced operator
(A close one)
1972 - Ike's VP vs War vet turned hippie?
1976 - Nixon enabler vs Mr Character
1980 - Mr Character vs Movie Star
1984 - Movie star vs Introvert
1988 - War vet vs Greek guy
1992 - Mr Smooth vs War vet
1996 - Mr Smooth vs Nobody
2000 - Funny George vs Climate guy
(This one was close)
2004 - Funny George vs Stiff Guy
2008 - Mr Cool vs Old sweet neighbour
2012 - Mr Cool vs Bible Guy
2016 - Madame Secretary vs Joe Pesci
2020 - Wannabe dictator vs Joe the rambler
2024 - John Gotti vs Senile Joe

So who can beat John Gotti?
Kamala - The Headmistress
Newsom - Smooth Operator
Withmer - Mrs.Girl Power
Pritzker - Mr. Jovial Billionaire
Shapiro - The geek
Biden - Joe the senile rambler
Kelly - The war vet
Moore - The New Guy
 
Rado_N said:
If we assume for a moment that Biden drops out; what do we expect happens next?

Simply anoint Harris?

Doesn’t seem like there’s time for any kind of democratic approach to it.
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It's genuinely absurd that the US has the most OTT candidate selection system you could imagine, and the Dems find themselves in this position. But yeah, without there being a clear standout waiting in the wings that everyone would be happy to just nod through, I don't see a way for anyone else to get it that wouldn't cause a lot of strife for pretty much the rest of the campaign.
 
Rado_N said:
If we assume for a moment that Biden drops out; what do we expect happens next?

Simply anoint Harris?

Doesn’t seem like there’s time for any kind of democratic approach to it.
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I think there is a provision within the convention for the state delegations to elect a nominee.
 
Rado_N said:
If we assume for a moment that Biden drops out; what do we expect happens next?

Simply anoint Harris?

Doesn’t seem like there’s time for any kind of democratic approach to it.
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If he drops out he would probably endorse Harris immediately. But that wouldn't necessarily mean she would get the nomination. It would still have to go to the convention and there would along the way, almost certainly be a faction promoting the likes of Newsom, Whitmer, Shapiro et al. So in the end, they would have to hash it out by the convention next month.
 
Raoul said:
If he drops out he would probably endorse Harris immediately. But that wouldn't necessarily mean she would get the nomination. It would still have to go to the convention and there would along the way, almost certainly be a faction promoting the likes of Newsom, Whitmer, Shapiro et al. So in the end, they would have to hash it out by the convention next month.
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It would be very surprising if Biden pledged delegates wouldn't vote for whomever he endorses, but technically they don't have to.
 
Laurencio said:
It would be very surprising if Biden pledged delegates wouldn't vote for whomever he endorses, but technically they don't have to.
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I think the bigger issue is the matter of campaign funds already donated to Biden. Only Harris could use them, which would be a massive hurdle for other challengers to overcome.
 
Fergies Gum said:
I think Its likely to be Cooper or Shapiro. I don't think America is quite ready to elect a black women and gay VP on the same ticket.
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Shapiro would be a solid pick from a necessary state. Not sure about Cooper since NC seems like a tougher nut to crack. On Buttigieg, he's already a national figure who outperformed Harris in the 2020 primaries, and I think the country is ready for him to move to the next level.
 
Raoul said:
Shapiro would be a solid pick from a necessary state. Not sure about Cooper since NC seems like a tougher nut to crack. On Buttigieg, he's already a national figure who outperformed Harris in the 2020 primaries, and I think the country is ready for him to move to the next level.
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Keep your hands off cooper. We need him here and 100% focused on helping keep a literal nut job from taking his place.
 
Raoul said:
I think the bigger issue is the matter of campaign funds already donated to Biden. Only Harris could use them, which would be a massive hurdle for other challengers to overcome.
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If another candidate replaces Biden and Kamala stays on as the VP candidate, could that be a workaround? Assuming Kamala goes for it.
 
Raoul said:
I think the bigger issue is the matter of campaign funds already donated to Biden. Only Harris could use them, which would be a massive hurdle for other challengers to overcome.
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IIRC there are two strategies, one where you put all the money into a federal Super PAC, which is sub optimal, or the Biden campaign shuts down and gives the remaining money to the DNC, like Bloomberg did with his campaign money. None are as straightforward and easy as simply Harris taking over though. They could also just rely on a really wealthy VP *cough* Pritzker *cough* to make up the difference and boost early funding.

That said, the whole setting up a presidential campaign from scratch in a month or so seems a bit of a challenge. Newsom probably has a strategy ready the way he has been going and Kamala can piggy back on Biden's campaign, but for the rest it would pretty much be starting from square one.
 
So I read in this forum that any money collected by donors, would not be able to be used by another ticket. (how they would return the money would be funny as they spent part of it). So only Harris would be able to use it. If they would get another person as president choice and keep Harris as VP, they would be able to use the money?
 
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