2024 U.S. Elections | Trump wins

Raoul said:
If there's been slight movement in the numbers its probably down to the fact that Trump hasn't been campaigning and most of his recent press has been about his legal cases. Also, RFK's luster seems to be wearing off a bit, which may help Biden a bit more than Trump.
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There has been a shift in national polls, state polls are as bad as they have ever been.

I will say though, at least the national polls and state polls correlate now, if Biden and Trump actually are tied in the popular vote, Trump will easily win the electoral college.
 
Morty_ said:
We aren't getting anywhere with this, you can believe that polls missing out by 5 points(like they did in some battleground states in 22, idk) is accurate and good, i just have a different definition of that.

This is what they do for a living, i expect more.

Hypotethically, if Biden wins Wisconsin by 5 points, i will certainly not be impressed if the polls shows a dead tie in November, just because its "technically" within the margin of error or whatever.
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You are nitpicking a state of your choosing because it fits your narrative that the polls are wrong. I gave you multiple battle states on multiple races (presidential, governor, senate and average house) and most of them were between 0. and 3. except 2 states that were 4. if memory serve me right

You will always find always outliers in deviations in statistics. Average is what matters

And yes, I agree, a difference between 5-10 points doesn't say good things on polling and whoever has these results in Wisconsin, it will mean that they didn't do a good job. But there are many other states. And if the polls average are 10 points of difference vs the results, then we can conclude that the polls are broken. But till it happens, that is not the case

And if it happens, I will gladly join you on your statement next elections
 
Morty_ said:
There has been a shift in national polls, state polls are as bad as they have ever been.

I will say though, at least the national polls and state polls correlate now, if Biden and Trump actually are tied in the popular vote, Trump will easily win the electoral college.
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Yeah, I think there will be a lot of polling gyrations between now and Oct since this is the most unusual election in recent history, possibly since the beginning.
 
Raoul said:
Yeah, I think there will be a lot of polling gyrations between now and Oct since this is the most unusual election in recent history, possibly since the beginning.
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An octogenarian in mental decline, a lardy, incontinent septuagenarian criminal and a guy who's brain has been eaten by worms.

It's a stellar line up, alright. You've got to wonder how this is impacting the egos of people like Vivek and Nikki.
 
Dr. Dwayne said:
An octogenarian in mental decline, a lardy, incontinent septuagenarian criminal and a guy who's brain has been eaten by worms.

It's a stellar line up, alright. You've got to wonder how this is impacting the egos of people like Vivek and Nikki.
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Gavin Newsom v Nikki Haley would've likely been the matchup if the olds didn't take over.
 
4bars said:
You are nitpicking a state of your choosing because it fits your narrative that the polls are wrong. I gave you multiple battle states on multiple races (presidential, governor, senate and average house) and most of them were between 0. and 3. except 2 states that were 4. if memory serve me right

You will always find always outliers in deviations in statistics. Average is what matters

And yes, I agree, a difference between 5-10 points doesn't say good things on polling and whoever has these results in Wisconsin, it will mean that they didn't do a good job. But there are many other states. And if the polls average are 10 points of difference vs the results, then we can conclude that the polls are broken. But till it happens, that is not the case

And if it happens, I will gladly join you on your statement next elections
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I don't nitpick states, the states nitpicks me, there are only a handful of states that really matter, and in these swing states, polls were really off, in multiple of them in 2022.
One can really argue that the senate race(and governor race) in Pennsylvania broke polling, one can argue the same for the governor race in Michigan, and not good in Arizona or Wisconsin either.

More than polling, i look at trends, is there anything, like at all, that shows Trump and republicans are popular in these couple of states again?

But now, we are back to the start, you believe this election will be like 2020 in terms of polling while i don't, so again, we are just talking in circles.
 
Raoul said:
Gavin Newsom v Nikki Haley would've likely been the matchup if the olds didn't take over.
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Biden has a better chance against Trump than Newsom against Haley imo, though we will never know.
 
Morty_ said:
Biden has a better chance against Trump than Newsom against Haley imo, though we will never know.
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Yes, that worked out well for him. I also think Newsom would've done well against Trump given that Trump has a favorability ceiling in the low 40s.
 
Raoul said:
Gavin Newsom v Nikki Haley would've likely been the matchup if the olds didn't take over.
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My general opinion is that America deserves better and Newsom V Haley should have been the contest, but at the same time both parties and their members wanted this shitshow and whatever happens in November and beyond might be just desserts for being complacent and stubborn.
 
Morty_ said:
I don't nitpick states, the states nitpicks me, there are only a handful of states that really matter, and in these swing states, polls were really off, in multiple of them in 2022.
One can really argue that the senate race(and governor race) in Pennsylvania broke polling, one can argue the same for the governor race in Michigan, and not good in Arizona or Wisconsin either.

More than polling, i look at trends, is there anything, like at all, that shows Trump and republicans are popular in these couple of states again?

But now, we are back to the start, you believe this election will be like 2020 in terms of polling while i don't, so again, we are just talking in circles.
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Again is not true, I gave you the 6 battle states on 2022, governor race and senate and most of those races were 0. to 3. margin of error

What you are saying is not true back with numbers. I don't know why you keep repeating things that are not true. Was not true in 2020 nor 2022

We are talking in circles because you insist in things that never happened
 
Biden is the only one that Trump can beat and Trump is the only one that Biden can beat. Any other that would be second in primaries would destroy the other. Haley would beat Biden and Newsome would beat Trump.

Basically Haley and Newsome don't have a baggage that is pushing away voters left and right. And they are not old mental disabled people
 
4bars said:
Again is not true, I gave you the 6 battle states on 2022, governor race and senate and most of those races were 0. to 3. margin of error

What you are saying is not true back with numbers. I don't know why you keep repeating things that are not true. Was not true in 2020 nor 2022

We are talking in circles because you insist in things that never happened
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But it did happen, in Michigan and Pennsylvania, what polling are you looking at? Whitmer was up by 5, she won by 11, a 6 point swing, really bad.
Shapiro was up by 8, won by 14 something, 6 point swing, again, really bad, Fetterman, performance was 5-6 points above polling as well, again, bad.

I will argue 6 points is just about broken, even if you are technically correct, it is what it is.

But i do take the bad and good polling into account, believe it or not, Georgia was more or less spot on, example, i trust polling there significantly more than i do in Arizona, Michigan and PA.
 
Morty_ said:
But it did happen, in Michigan and Pennsylvania, what polling are you looking at? Whitmer was up by 5, she won by 11, a 6 point swing, really bad.
Shapiro was up by 8, won by 14 something, 6 point swing, again, really bad, Fetterman, performance was 5-6 points above polling as well, again, bad.

I will argue 6 points is just about broken, even if you are technically correct, it is what it is.

But i do take the bad and good polling into account, believe it or not, Georgia was more or less spot on, example, i trust polling there significantly more than i do in Arizona, Michigan and PA.
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Governor

Nevada: 1.7 (R) vs 1.5 (R)
Arizona: 2.2 (R) vs 0.7 (D)
Georgia: 8.2 (R) vs 6.5 (R)
Pennsylvania: 9.8 (D) vs 14.8 (D)
Wisconsin: 0.4 (R) vs 3.3 (D)
Michigan: 5.8 (D) vs 10.6 (D)

Senate

Nevada: 0.2 (R) vs 0.8 (D)
Arizona: 2.2 (D) vs 4.9 (D)
Georgia: 1.2 (R) vs 2.8 (D)
Pennsylvania: 1 (R) vs 4.9 (D)
Wisconsin: 4.8 (R) vs 1.0 (R)
Michigan: No race



Pennsylvania had 5.0 governor and 5.9 in Senate difference
Michigan 4.8

Yes, they feck it up

But again, You are nitpicking 1-2 states. All the rest of the battle states were 0. to 3. And the national average had been 2. to 3. the last 2 elections. The average might not be important in terms of considering certain states as they will never flip, but polls are still being done and they are part of the average. that statistically average is what matters

Singling out 1 result because it fits your narrative is not statistically relevant and very far from the statement polls are broken

If the results of POTUS vs the last days average polls shows a big disparity, I will join you, no problem at all recognizing that you predicted it. But your prediction can't be based on pass polling. Might be your gut feeling, and I can empathize in gut feelings. As when you mentioned that it doesn't make sense that youth are more inclined to vote Trump. It doesn't make sense to me either, though it make sense that Biden has lost a lot of support on that collective lately

And yes, we can go over and over. It seems I have time for now
 
Raoul said:
She's definitely not a victim in any of this. She chose to marry Trump and knew about the circus it would entail.
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And that is why I have 1,000 times more respect for Cécilia Ciganer-Albéniz, who chose to divorce from Nicolas Sarkozy and relinquish all of the perks that go with the First Lady of France only 5 months after Sarkozy was sworn in as President of France.
 
I watched the Joe Biden interview on CNN and despite him looking like a man halfway through his own embalming, he kept the fumbled speech to a minimum and it was quite impressive that he stayed on script. The message itself was completely deranged and degrading but he kept at it and the words stumbled out relatively cohesively.

I think he will last till the end of the year but I'd bet against him seeing the following election.
 
dumbo said:
I watched the Joe Biden interview on CNN and despite him looking like a man halfway through his own embalming, he kept the fumbled speech to a minimum and it was quite impressive that he stayed on script. The message itself was completely deranged and degrading but he kept at it and the words stumbled out relatively cohesively.

I think he will last till the end of the year but I'd bet against him seeing the following election.
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Its gotten to the point where his age is a bigger consideration than many of his policies, which is never a good thing for a politician.
 
dumbo said:
I watched the Joe Biden interview on CNN and despite him looking like a man halfway through his own embalming, he kept the fumbled speech to a minimum and it was quite impressive that he stayed on script. The message itself was completely deranged and degrading but he kept at it and the words stumbled out relatively cohesively.

I think he will last till the end of the year but I'd bet against him seeing the following election.
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I dunno, bad guys always seem to last forever.
 
Raoul said:
She has been getting a lot of votes in primaries despite having dropped out of the race, so probably nervous that a chunk of R voters won’t vote for him.
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If she accepted and Trump didn't win she'd be dead as a politician, I'm pretty sure she has ambitions of running again in 2028 so if even if Trump asked her to be his VP running mate I don't see her accepting
 
At one point i thought dems should attack Trump for his new proposed tariffs on China, but then, i realized dems basically have the exact same position on this issue, so i understand why they dont.

 
GNd-K0gXUAAZ8Ge
 
Idxomer said:
GNd-K0gXUAAZ8Ge
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Thats what I had been saying all along. All this polls showing Trump leading the young....Unlikely IMO, but most of the young that voted Trump, will vote for him again, while lots of young people that voted for Biden in 2020 (anti Trump elections) are very pissed and will not vote for him. Vote suppression will always go in Trump's favour and is happening. Biden needs to revitalize voters. Is his only way
 
nimic said:
50-38 seems almost impossible in Nevada. Did the water supply get tainted?
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Seems like an outlier, although I do believe Trump is leading in most battleground states at the moment. Biden's numbers are a perfect storm of his age, perceptions of things being more expensive now than under Trump, and a few other issues unrelated to economics such as the border and foreign policy.
 
Krakenzero said:
According to polls and primaries not a single one did though.
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One thing are primaries where hardcore dems votes and another is general elections where you need independents and discontent Rs to vote you and the hardcore D will vote them anyway

And I posted before, but in november, it shown that the 4 point advantage for trump vs Biden, would turn in a 8 point advantage for an unnamed D vs Trump. Biden currently looks crap and with a lot of bagagge that another candidate doesn't have. No one likes either candidate
 
Calling it now (possibly again if I already said it). Musk is building community notes as a source of truth. Come election time he’ll rework it into a skewed narrative feature that’s anti democrat and nobody will realise in time.
 
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