2024 U.S. Elections | Trump wins

nimic said:
He was talking about 2022, though.
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My bad

Governor

Nevada: 1.7 (R) vs 1.5 (R)
Arizona: 2.2 (R) vs 0.7 (D)
Georgia: 8.2 (R) vs 6.5 (R)
Pennsylvania: 9.8 (D) vs 13.8 (D)
Wisconsin: 0.4 (R) vs 3.3 (D)
Michigan: 5.8 (D) vs 10.6 (D)

Senate

Nevada: 0.2 (R) vs 0.8 (D)
Arizona: 2.2 (D) vs 4.9 (D)
Georgia: 1.2 (R) vs 2.8 (D)
Pennsylvania: 1 (R) vs 4.9 (D)
Wisconsin: 4.8 (R) vs 1.0 (R)
Michigan: No race

I didn't do the house as there are so many individual races. But the popular vote poll was 4.0 (R) vs 2.8 (R) reality

Most of these polls (I remember that is a huge mix and not the most prestigious) are in between of 0. to 3. something. Hardly broken IMO

And again, we are nitpicking

And if we consider the 2020 presidential (that it makes more sense IMO), all the key states gave more favourability to Biden than what really happen

Polls at this stage might mean nothing, so Biden might improve in the polls closer to the date, but for now is not the case
 
Morty_ said:
You know polling is a joke when the latest have Trump up in Washington, a state Biden won by nearly 20 points in 2020.

I'm just going to assume polling is broken going into this election, nothing else makes sense in my head.
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finally saw this poll. it is by an outlet called the independent center, which i have never seen before in polling.
this is their twttier bio
"The Independent Center gives VOICE to the millions of Americans who believe in common sense solutions, tolerance and freedom of choice to solve our problems. "

ya i think it's
1. safe to discard this totally
2. unfair to malign every other poll using this (after all, there was a ton of utter junk GOP polling in 2022 showing statewide wins in PA, NY, WA, while mainstream pollsters were much closer to the result)
 
berbatrick said:
finally saw this poll. it is by an outlet called the independent center, which i have never seen before in polling.
this is their twttier bio
"The Independent Center gives VOICE to the millions of Americans who believe in common sense solutions, tolerance and freedom of choice to solve our problems. "

ya i think it's
1. safe to discard this totally
2. unfair to malign every other poll using this (after all, there was a ton of utter junk GOP polling in 2022 showing statewide wins in PA, NY, WA, while mainstream pollsters were much closer to the result)
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Its not only this one, its another one in a rather long list of polls i consider not serious.

Latest up, Trump up by 12 points nationally in Rasmussen.
 
4bars said:
So you are saying that they lie in the polls? or they will change at the last minute? Hopefully is true, but surely we will see it reflected on the last 2 weeks polls
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Not lying but showing discontent. When push comes to shove women will vote to protect their rights. Pragmatists will vote to protect their pockets.
 
Morty_ said:
Its not only this one, its another one in a rather long list of polls i consider not serious.

Latest up, Trump up by 12 points nationally in Rasmussen.
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Raamussen is one of the most GOP biased polls that you can find. Is basically propaganda

I understand that you think that the polls are broken if you pick rasmussen as your poll choice

And that is what i said that the prestigious polling organizatioms are not far from the truth
 
4bars said:
Raamussen is one of the most GOP biased polls that you can find. Is basically propaganda

I understand that you think that the polls are broken if you pick rasmussen as your poll choice

And that is what i said that the prestigious polling organizatioms are not far from the truth
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But its not just that one either, as i have said, the list of "joke polls" is getting rather long.

Combine that, with polls underestimating dems ever since Dobbs(2020 is a different environment), is it strange if people find it hard to question the industry lately?

You may be right that polling isn't technically broken, but the election results in 2022, in states such as Michigan and Pennsylvania, are quite far away from the polling.

Whitmer was up by 1, she won by 10, "everyone" thought Fetterman was going to lose the senate bid, he overperformed by 5, Shapiro outperformed polling by 6 points.

So forgive me, for not believing that Trump, a despised figure, is suddenly crushing it with independents and young voters, in these battleground states.


Now, if you believe that 2020 is more representative for 2024 than 2022, then that could also be true(god help us), thats just not the picture i'm getting with election results past two years.
 
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Morty_ said:
But its not just that one either, as i have said, the list of "joke polls" is getting rather long.

Combine that, with polls underestimating dems ever since Dobbs(2020 is a different environment), is it strange if people find it hard to question the industry lately?

You may be right that polling isn't technically broken, but the election results in 2022, in states such as Michigan and Pennsylvania, are quite far away from the polling.

Whitmer was up by 1, she won by 10, "everyone" thought Fetterman was going to lose the senate bid, he overperformed by 5, Shapiro outperformed polling by 6 points.

So forgive me, for not believing that Trump, a despised figure, is suddenly crushing it with independents and young voters, in these battleground states.


Now, if you believe that 2020 is more representative for 2024 than 2022, then that could also be true(god help us), thats just not the picture i'm getting with election results past two years.
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I am not going to dispute that there are more "joke" polls because i dont know. Ill take your word on it. But is everyones responsability to source ones information. That includes polls, news, tweets, comments, etc...

The prestigeous polls still out there though and some of them had been published here and the picture says that as it stands, trump is winning for a small margin in most of battle states. Might improve? Maybe

Then, yes, i think 2020 is more representative because they are the elections where more resources are put in polling and is concentrated, not like for governors, senators and house, but that is IMO based in logic, nothing factual to back it up.

At the sametime i dont think is fair to cherry pick. We started with polls are broken, then narrow it down to battle states and then narrow it down to michigan and pennsylvannia. We will always find outlayers the more we single out as is how statistics works

And yes, i agree that is hard to believe that trump is winning with young people and independents. But surely he narrowed it down a lot from 2020. Not because he increase these voters that were small to begin with, but because i think Biden is losing a lot of support, and the first groups that Biden is going to lose are precisely those. Its a battle of vote suppression and in a low percentage turn out, Biden will lose. Lets not forget that Biden won by a large margin in the popular vote, but Trump was the second most voted candidate in US history above any other president (yes, population grow but still is crazy compared to the last 4-5elections). That means that there are plenty of nutters that voted him, and those is unlikely that they change their vote that much while Biden is losing a lot of support

There is a lot of my opinion in this post. But regarding polls numbers, so far they are far from considering them broken if we check past elections
 
VorZakone said:
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The parody is way beyond the shark jumping.

I wonder how that 65 year old Jewish woman felt when she was wrestled to the ground by Genocide Joe's riot police?

Or that black lady felt with those monkey sounds and impressions, right in front of Genocide Joe's riot police. Still nothing in the news about any arrests on that matter.

Yeah, but Trump and women.
 
Dumbstar said:
The parody is way beyond the shark jumping.

I wonder how that 65 year old Jewish woman felt when she was wrestled to the ground by Genocide Joe's riot police?

Or that black lady felt with those monkey sounds and impressions, right in front of Genocide Joe's riot police. Still nothing in the news about any arrests on that matter.

Yeah, but Trump and women.
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Trump and women is a way bigger issue to millions of American's than thousands of protesters, even in red states
 
Red in STL said:
Trump and women is a way bigger issue to millions of American's than thousands of protesters, even in red states
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Yet, if biden loses the election, it will be these thousands of young people who will get the blame for not voting for biden.
 
maniak said:
But she said feck so many times, clearly doesn't have the maturity to see that genocide is actually a very complex issue.
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Obviously not, but I am sure that will be the narrative of any response to her speech as opposed to the substance of what she was saying.
 
maniak said:
Yet, if biden loses the election, it will be these thousands of young people who will get the blame for not voting for biden.
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He won't lose the election because of thousands of young voters who generally don't vote anyway, the winner will be the one that wins the propaganda war
 
Red in STL said:
Trump and women is a way bigger issue to millions of American's than thousands of protesters, even in red states
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As usual, the economy is #1, followed by a list of other domestic issues.

This is from last week's CNN - SSRS poll

dqX3eB0.png


50 seconds onwards, particularly the very last bit.

 
Red in STL said:
He won't lose the election because of thousands of young voters who generally don't vote anyway, the winner will be the one that wins the propaganda war
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In my experience young voters don't vote in general, but those invested in protests and associative movements definitely vote. These are many thousands of votes biden won't get that he would if he did the right thing regarding israel.
 
maniak said:
In my experience young voters don't vote in general, but those invested in protests and associative movements definitely vote. These are many thousands of votes biden won't get that he would if he did the right thing regarding israel.
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And a few thousand of them aren't going to win or lose the election, especially as most of them are in blue states that Republican's have the same chance of winning as do the Democrats winning in Utah or Alabama
 
maniak said:
In my experience young voters don't vote in general, but those invested in protests and associative movements definitely vote. These are many thousands of votes biden won't get that he would if he did the right thing regarding israel.
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I mean, his campaign is trying to appease so-called 'moderates' who probably don't care much about that issue or who probably think these protestors are being radical, etc. So while it would be nice to get those young people to vote for him in a perfect world, they would be calculating which groups would get him more chances in the election. Of course, that does not mean they will get it right. And those students should never be blamed for whatever the outcome as they don't seem to be his focus at this round.

Welcome to the politics or something.
 
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Dumbstar said:
The parody is way beyond the shark jumping.

I wonder how that 65 year old Jewish woman felt when she was wrestled to the ground by Genocide Joe's riot police?

Yeah, but Trump and women.
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That was Trump-excusing republican governor Chris Sununu's riot police, called in by an incompetent college president. Joe had nothing to do with it.
 
Dumbstar said:
The parody is way beyond the shark jumping.

I wonder how that 65 year old Jewish woman felt when she was wrestled to the ground by Genocide Joe's riot police?

Or that black lady felt with those monkey sounds and impressions, right in front of Genocide Joe's riot police. Still nothing in the news about any arrests on that matter.

Yeah, but Trump and women.
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The Trump / women issue is at least an order of magnitude more important in this country than the Gaza issue, possibly more.
 
calodo2003 said:
The Trump / women issue is at least an order of magnitude more important in this country than the Gaza issue, possibly more.
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I'll bet that a large chunk of people protesting for either side couldn't place Israel or Gaza on a map!
 
4bars said:
It is not ok to cherry pick but lets entertain it. Battle states:

Reality vs polls

Michigan: 2.8 vs 7.9 (Biden)

Pennsylvania: 1.2 vs 4.7 (Biden)

Nevada: 2.4 vs 5.3 (Biden)

Arizona: 0.4 vs 2.6 (Biden)

Georgia: 0.3 vs 1.2 (Biden)

Wisconsin: 0.6 vs 8.4 (Biden)

4 or the 6 battle states were around 1-3% margin of error approx. as I mentioned. But the funny think is that overestimated Biden, not Trump. So the argument makes it even worse. The polls that we see should considered as overestimating Biden, not Trump
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Yep. Polls also overestimated Clinton against Trump. I think the common wisdom is that there are people who do not claim to vote for Trump but still vote him, not the other way around.
 
Red in STL said:
And a few thousand of them aren't going to win or lose the election, especially as most of them are in blue states that Republican's have the same chance of winning as do the Democrats winning in Utah or Alabama
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I hope not. But regardless, they will still get the blame if biden loses, that was my main point.

The narrative is always the same. The youth wants something, the reaction "oh these bloody utopian leftists, we can ignore them, they don't vote anyway". The democratic candidate loses by a small margin and we get "see, if those youngsters were more pragmatic and not so idealistic, we wouldn't be in this mess".
 
The United said:
I mean, his campaign is trying to appease so-called 'moderates' who probably don't care much about that issue or who probably think these protestors are being radical, etc. So while it would be nice to get those young people to vote for him in a perfect world, they would be calculating which groups would get him more chances in the election. Of course, that does not mean they will get it right. And those students should never be blamed for whatever the outcome as they don't seem to be his focus at this round.

Welcome to the politics or something.
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Fair enough, play the game the way you want to, but then don't bullshit us with stuff like this:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...-blame-millennials-for-hillary-clintons-loss/

They either want young voters or they don't. If they don't then shut up about "oh but you gotta be pragmatic". No mate, they need to stop supporting shit policies like supporting genocide.
 
maniak said:
Fair enough, play the game the way you want to, but then don't bullshit us with stuff like this:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...-blame-millennials-for-hillary-clintons-loss/

They either want young voters or they don't. If they don't then shut up about "oh but you gotta be pragmatic". No mate, they need to stop supporting shit policies like supporting genocide.
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I doubt (almost) any politicians will say they don't want any particular group's votes. With the way Biden is doing with this particular policy and ignoring this group of students, I am guessing they are trying to target some other groups, even within the college age range or a bit older group, with all these student loan debt cancellation and stuff.

Politicians and their people bullshitting. Well, I would never...
 
It will be interesting what this guy will say in August. Not sure how credible this guy is outside of 'I predicted the last 9 out of 10 election right stuff'.

 
VorZakone said:
Christ.
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Not nearly as bad as Kristy Noem who is about to publish a book to big herself up as a VP choice, in which she said she once shot her dog (this was apparently supposed to resonate favorably with the MAGA crowd), and also falsely claimed she met Kim Jung Un.

She went on TV today and tap danced just as badly as Scott.

 
maniak said:
I hope not. But regardless, they will still get the blame if biden loses, that was my main point.

The narrative is always the same. The youth wants something, the reaction "oh these bloody utopian leftists, we can ignore them, they don't vote anyway". The democratic candidate loses by a small margin and we get "see, if those youngsters were more pragmatic and not so idealistic, we wouldn't be in this mess".
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Democrats are basically saying to young voters: we do not care about your views, we will continue to support Israel no matter what it does, and then: give us your votes.

Biden, and most democrats, are not listening to their base. I'm far from being in my 20s, but I would not vote for Biden if the other nominee were not Trump. I think that's a good enough reason to vote in November for Biden, but I will do it with a heavy heart. The leadership of our party is throwing the opinions of many people, including 40+ olds, to trash. I heard this from many Biden voters in their 40s and 50s. If young voters and other don't vote for Biden in November, I won't blame them.
 
ManUtd1999 said:
Democrats are basically saying to young voters: we do not care about your views, we will continue to support Israel no matter what it does, and then: give us your votes.

Biden, and most democrats, are not listening to their base. I'm far from being in my 20s, but I would not vote for Biden if the other nominee were not Trump. I think that's a good enough reason to vote in November for Biden, but I will do it with a heavy heart. The leadership of our party is throwing the opinions of many people, including 40+ olds, to trash. I heard from many Biden voters in their 40s and 50s this. If young voters and other don't vote for Biden in November, I won't blame them.
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The good news for anyone not in a swing state, is they can probably sit this one out and it won't affect the outcome of the election. AZ, NV, CO, GA, NC, MI, WI, PA, NH, and possibly FL because of abortion, are the only states where voting will truly matter.
 
Raoul said:
The good news for anyone not in a swing state, is they can probably sit this one out and it won't affect the outcome of the election. AZ, NV, CO, GA, NC, MI, WI, PA, NH, and possibly FL because of abortion, are the only states where voting will truly matter.
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I would not envy progressive voters in those states. At least I can pretend that my vote (or lack thereof) in TN would not impact anything.
 
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