I expect the polls to change quite a bit between now and the election since its still 7 plus months off.
2024 U.S. Elections | Trump wins
- Thread starter Raoul
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I expect the polls to change quite a bit between now and the election since its still 7 plus months off.
I think those voting based on religious ideals and principles often end up doing themselves far more harm than good. Many Republican voters are often massively uninformed too which again often ends up with seriouly detrimental results to themselves and many others, but being the ultimate grifters they are they quickly try to avoid accepting any blame themsleves and instead continuously blame the Democrats. Selfishness and ignorance alongside religious ideals and the holier than thou attitude have cost so many people a better way of life in many places but especially the US.
Many Republican voters reluctance to see or accept this is beyond frustrating due to the blind hatred of the opposition and is the prime example of the polarisation between the parties and magnifies the biggest issues with a 2 party system, although the UK is a prime example of appearing to have more options whilst at the same time not really having them at all. Or should I say, having them, but due to the way things are voting for anyone else in the vast majority of places is little more than either a protest vote, a wasted vote or an ease your conscience vote.
Can anyone honestly see a third party or an independent ever winning in the USA?
Great post.
It has to happen at some point, not only in the US but also in the EU and Britain.
The conventional left/right system present in every democratic western country is obsolete and has been stretched beyond its limits. It massively favors the far-right at the moment. Something has to change.
Not anytime soon (imo). But not impossible in the future, especially if anyone remembers the Perot juggernaut in 92.
Yeah I agree something does have to change, but how? And when?
Take the UK for example, it's always a guarantee that Labour or the Tories will win. The one time it was in danger we had a hung parliament with the Lib Dems sharing power. Although in truth, that was bollocks as the Conservatives held such a strong majority the main pledges of the Lib Dems had to be retracted within hours of coming in to shared power and it destroyed them as the publics confidence was lost and it's something from which they have been struggling to come back from ever since. They had to make concessions and the ones they made went back on the actual reasons they got enough votes to force a hung parliament in the first place.
This coming election is even worse as we have had 14 years of a Tory party that have had multiple unelected leaders who have spent their time destroying nearly everything whilst lying about it, blaming Labour, laughing in the publics faces and carrying on with impunity. Many of them have profited hugely at the same time this has been going on whilst simultaneously forcing austerity measures on the rest of us.
To make matters worse the current Labour leader might as well be a member of the Conservative party as he's as far from a socialist as any labour leader before him. The one actual socialist that had any real power was removed with the most brutal smear campaign I can remember seeing in British Politics since I've been old enough to vote. If all that wasn't bad enough we've had to endure the cock up of Brexit at the same time. The referendum was only called due to arrogance of the leader at the time trying to quell dissent in his own party and with the arrogance and absolute certainty of a result that didn't happen due to him not reading the room at the time alongside the catastrophic failure to highlight the shit show leaving would become.
That coupled with the absolute failure to fully inform the public of why it should vote to remain, whilst fighting a leave campaign that was absolutely lying about almost everything and being led by a guy so hypocritical and deceitful and who had spent years just doing everything he could to get the UK to leave. All the while he was an EU MP who just threw every spanner he could find in the works. He continuously voted against everything the EU proposed. The result was the absolute certainty of a majority remain vote was lost, and to add insult to injury, the final kick in the balls was the disaster that followed with the feck up of how the exit was finally handled resulting in one of the biggest political own goals of all time.
Like the USA immigration is at the forefront of issues for the upcoming election and the news is saturated with fear mongering, exaggerated stories and outright lies with genuine reports and concerns mixed in. Unlike the USA, we have numerous parties to choose from, with a couple of new ones trying to gain traction. They are really just reincarnations of others before them and ultimately they will do little other than take votes away from the others. Long standing third parties that could make a difference will likely suffer the most and again, similar to the USA, voter apathy and low turnout is a big worry with many just sick and tired of it all and not seeing a difference between the main two and no real confidence or desire to vote for anyone else. Their lack of media coverage is also a huge hinderence to them making much ground.
I find myself in the same situation I've beratrd friends in the US for and now can understand their frustration. I'm also finding myself unsure of the comment I made earlier and one I have often made of the UK being better due to having more options come election time. I'm so desperate to get the Tories out but vehemently dislike much about the current Labour party, especially its leader. Where I live is almost nailed on Blue anyway, so a labour vote is completely wasted as is a vote for anyone else. However, this election and with writing this post I've decided I'm actually going to vote for a third party. A conscience vote maybe, but change won't ever happen until people make it and I can't handle being a hypocrite or accepting something that feels forced or expected. @Eboue @Sweet Square and a few more and especially your post right there have helped me in this decision. So for that, thank you. Sincerely.
I was only 18 so a couple of years before I really started following world politics and was completely lost in my rave years where music was my main passion (It still is TBF). I will go and have a look on Google though.
In summary : Ross Perot was polling very well when he suddenly (and bizarrely) dropped out of the race. He had a legit shot to win before his implosion imo.
I'd have thought this year was actually a possibility if anyone wanted to try, both Biden & Trump have big parts of their base doubting their viability for different reasons.
But agree I can't really see it happen any time soon.
Absolutely. One just needs to look at what percentage Perot garnered after his sabbatical ended to realize he had quite a good shot.
The problem being the two parties rigged the requirements after 92 which renders third parties and independents to nigh improbable odds. And should another Perot type third party crash the election cycle again they'll just rig the requirements further.
Lisa Murkowski, done with Donald Trump, won’t rule out leaving GOP
“I wish that as Republicans, we had … a nominee that I could get behind,” Murkowski told CNN. “I certainly can’t get behind Donald Trump.”
“I wish that as Republicans, we had … a nominee that I could get behind,” Murkowski told CNN. “I certainly can’t get behind Donald Trump.”
Just do it.
With enough connections and strong values, life as an independent US Senator is not impossible.
She can make it as an independent from Alaska. We probably need more of this.
Exactly, lay your decision right in front of them. Ask them why someone who forces their fingers in to a woman's vagina without consent should even be considered for a job nevermind president. Conservatives in this country should be fecking ashamed of themselves. fecking trash the lot of them.
Every few days, i see headlines where dems are bragging about crushing republicans in fundraising.
Trump doesn't need a penny to keep dominating the polls, so what use is the money, really? Didn't save Hillary, and at this rate, won't save Biden.
The power of "owning the libs" is greater than any advantage money can give, it seems.
Trump doesn't need a penny to keep dominating the polls, so what use is the money, really? Didn't save Hillary, and at this rate, won't save Biden.
The power of "owning the libs" is greater than any advantage money can give, it seems.
Genuine question - what happens if by some stroke of fortune they both bite the big one before November ? Running mates step up or delayed election ?
If it happens before the convention, but after it's too late for any other candidate to get enough delegates, the delegates will decide in the convention. If it happens after, the party leadership probably picks a new candidate.
I'm not sure it's even possible to delay the election. The president stops being president in January.
No. However, political parties in the US are not like most political parties in Europe. For example, they don't really have any offices you can visit, and they don't have a rigid structure. And the Representatives are quite independent. The whole system is very different, it is more like the EU than a single country. The President can belong to one party but the majority in the parliament can belong to the other party, this cannot really happen in most european countries.
Now, about "an independent ever winning in the USA" ... actually, you can argue that this happened with Trump (and almost happened with Bernie). Basically, anyone can become a candidate for any of the parties, you do not have to be a lifelong card-carrying member or to be approved by the "elders of the party" as it usually happens in Europe. Of course, in practice, it is not easy.
Another American weird thing is that in the elections you can vote for anyone, even if they are not candidates, you can just write-in their name!!! I don't know if this allowed in any European countries, in Greece it is not permitted and if you write in a name which is not on the ballot, your whole vote is invalid.
I assume that is tge republicans and dems problem. The US elections are not a D vs R elections, there are other candidates. I dont know if there is a deadline or requirements to be in the elections, but there are other candidates at least, so no delays
I am not a lawyer but I think the following are all true:
1. The elections will not be delayed, no matter who dies.
2. We can vote for a dead person.
3. There is an "electoral college" who decides who the President will be (the procedure that Trump tried to cancel on Jan 6th, 2021).
4. It will be a mess.
5. The system will work in the end. But it may require a long time and many visits to courts.
It wasn't bizarre. His family was threatened and some weird stuff was going on. There were reports of black SUVs following his family and other threats were made. The perception at the time was that former CIA chief Bush was using his connections to get at Perot and Clinton's people were compliant - both sides thinking they had a better chance with Perot out of the race because Perot really was pulling from both sides at that time. It's probably one of the most believable and most likely "conspiracy theories".
Well, any post state of the union-bump Biden received is well and truly gone now.
Past week or two most be the worst polling for him so far, last couple of national polls have him down by 6 and 5, and the swing States are almost all looking awful.
It doesn't make sense, but at the moment, it looks like a Trump landslide.
Past week or two most be the worst polling for him so far, last couple of national polls have him down by 6 and 5, and the swing States are almost all looking awful.
It doesn't make sense, but at the moment, it looks like a Trump landslide.
Where are you seeing this? Neither FiveThirtyEight nor Economist are showing that trend in their poll aggregators.
The latest national poll that shows up on 538 has Biden down by 6, and there is another one that probably hasn't shown up there yet.
Man changes name to Literally Anybody Else and announces US presidential run
Texas man says he is unsatisfied with Donald Trump and Joe Biden and says new name ‘isn’t a person, it’s a rally cry’
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/25/texas-name-change-election-candidate
Man changes name to Literally Anybody Else and announces US presidential run
Texas man says he is unsatisfied with Donald Trump and Joe Biden and says new name ‘isn’t a person, it’s a rally cry’
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/25/texas-name-change-election-candidate
None of the above
But... the polls insists that people don't have abortion rights as a main priority anymore, how could they ever be wrong?
I just want November to arrive already, so we can see if the Trump-landslide they keep predicting is real or not.
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But who is predicting a Trump landslide?
The pollsters.
Depends on your definition of it, but I'd say Trump winning the popular vote by 2 points, translates to that, considering the big advantage they have in the electoral college.
Lets see if polling changes, but since polling has been largely terrible for Biden since October, i'm not counting on it.
This plus Congressional GOPs resigning + infighting makes me think there’s probably internal polling data they have that doesn’t paint as rosy a picture for Trump as generally assumed.
Much still depends on Biden’s ability to campaign though, which is a rather bleak prospect. Without him going out there and making the case for the administration’s economic achievements, it’s free real estate for Trump to dictate the narrative, with the enthusiastic help of Twat in chief.
Do they really? And aren't there high-quality pollsters and partisan-leaning pollsters like Rasmussen? What are the high-quality pollsters indicating?
A toss-up in the general election with Trump leading all the swing states but Biden closing in and within range. Couple that with the fact Trump has underperformed polls in the primaries and Biden trending slightly upwards and it’s not as grim as Morty is suggesting, although Trump is definitely the favourite right now.
History tells us that the favorite in the spring isn't necessarily the one who wins in the fall. Dukakis was beating George Bush by six points in the summer of 88 and ended up getting smoked by 300 electoral votes in November. Perot was polling very strongly ahead of Bush and Bill Clinton (Clinton was last at the time) in the earlier part of 92, and it was Clinton who ended up winning. Hillary was also polling better than Trump for much 2016 and we all know what happened there. The important thing to note is that people who get polled earlier in the year (as in, Now) haven't always fully processed the ramifications of what will happen if they vote for a particular candidate, which usually means polls will swing after the conventions and debates leading into early voting in October. That is even more so the case this year given that Trump will be on trial most days beginning in April throughout the rest of the year.
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Just when @Morty_ was panicking about Biden's poll number, a number of articles have been published recently indicating that he is gaining some ground in the Blue Wall states. Maybe Morty should be more panicked about the whole poll thing. Joking aside, I would probably stay away from those poll numbers for my own mental health at this moment.
whole article is worth reading: https://split-ticket.org/2024/03/27/we-polled-young-voters-heres-what-we-found/