For me, the question was more if she’d outright endorce him, but I suppose Mike’s post below answers that.
As above, I wasn’t expecting her to get behind Biden but more not ask her supporters to vote for Trump.
But it’s not that surprising, I guess.
2024 U.S. Elections | Trump wins
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For me, the question was more if she’d outright endorce him, but I suppose Mike’s post below answers that.
As above, I wasn’t expecting her to get behind Biden but more not ask her supporters to vote for Trump.
But it’s not that surprising, I guess.
January 6th was Donald Trump disagreeing with my preferred policies on the transfer of power.
Of course that Haley would support Trump, same as most Republicans will. Maybe Mitt is the only big-name Republican who won’t endorse Trump, and he is retiring.
Same how Bernie endorsed Clinton even after having a nasty primary fight, same how the squad will endorse Biden, and same how well, pretty much every Democrat who has a big-name is going to endorse a semi-demented president.
The point is that voters do not blindly follow what their preferred choice endorses. The important point is how many of Haley voters will not vote for Trump, and my feeling is not too many. However, I expect the majority of independents not voting for Trump, cause he is a big child wannabe dictator with a God complex. Unfortunately, the Dems shots themselves in the foot by picking someone who is as unpopular as Trump, and whom dependent on the time of day, might not even know his name.
Which will likely make this election go down to the wire. If either party chose someone else (that is too late for Dems cause no one has really that big recognition at this stage), they would have destroyed the opponent. I think that Haley easily crushes Biden. I think that someone who would have won the Dem primaries (let’s say Newsom or Whitmer) would have destroyed Trump. Like usual both parties trying to out stupid each other.
It kinda sucks considering how much is at stake. Another Trump presidency could be catastrophic.
Same how Bernie endorsed Clinton even after having a nasty primary fight, same how the squad will endorse Biden, and same how well, pretty much every Democrat who has a big-name is going to endorse a semi-demented president.
The point is that voters do not blindly follow what their preferred choice endorses. The important point is how many of Haley voters will not vote for Trump, and my feeling is not too many. However, I expect the majority of independents not voting for Trump, cause he is a big child wannabe dictator with a God complex. Unfortunately, the Dems shots themselves in the foot by picking someone who is as unpopular as Trump, and whom dependent on the time of day, might not even know his name.
Which will likely make this election go down to the wire. If either party chose someone else (that is too late for Dems cause no one has really that big recognition at this stage), they would have destroyed the opponent. I think that Haley easily crushes Biden. I think that someone who would have won the Dem primaries (let’s say Newsom or Whitmer) would have destroyed Trump. Like usual both parties trying to out stupid each other.
It kinda sucks considering how much is at stake. Another Trump presidency could be catastrophic.
Haley will eventually endorse Trump. The question is: what kind of endorsement it would be? Sandres-like from 2016 or a strong one?
I actually hope that she surprises people on Super Tuesday and stays in the race, just so that swing voters hear from her the kind of things that she started saying about Trump in recent weeks.
I also would love to see a Haley-or-Bust movement disrupting the GOP convention.
As for Michigan: the polls suggested a +60 or so margin for T. He got +41. In his worst day, Biden received 81%. In his best day, Trump got 68%. The reality doesn’t seem as good for Trump as the polls suggest.
I actually hope that she surprises people on Super Tuesday and stays in the race, just so that swing voters hear from her the kind of things that she started saying about Trump in recent weeks.
I also would love to see a Haley-or-Bust movement disrupting the GOP convention.
As for Michigan: the polls suggested a +60 or so margin for T. He got +41. In his worst day, Biden received 81%. In his best day, Trump got 68%. The reality doesn’t seem as good for Trump as the polls suggest.
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Oh, i 100%. Maybe i worded my sentence wrong. When i said that never mattered less i meant that culture war caused that economics matters less than before
Lets say that 20 years ago economics mattered 80% vs 20% others (many specifics) and now 60% economics 40% the rest with a big chunk being culture wars
So being economics lower than ever but being very important nevertheless. And obviosuly i pulled that % from my ass, just as an example of my point
Trump run against a strong candidate. Biden run against ‘uncommitted’. Obviously Biden was going to do better percentage-wise.
I think the point is the polls overestimate Trump be rather big margins, i wouldn't be surprised if that's also the case for the general election.
Hopefully it is, but not for this margins. in the end, the majority of haley supporters will vote for Trump or wont vote as they will not vote for Biden, so basically uncommitted.
I think that the % of voters with drop a lot compared with 2024
Actually, didn't something like 40% of Haley supporters either stay home or vote for Biden?
Sure, not the majority, but that could be really bad for Trump, though of course, you expect some of them to come "home" in November.
I think it was 25% said they would not vote for trump. I might be wrong
But is clear that they Trump and Biden seems very weak candidates so far
Some of the worst numbers i have seen for Biden, Trump +6 in PA? Find that hard to believe though.
Nevada one is definitely weird, as it has Trump leading big with hispanics, and Biden somehow leads with white voters.
Surely Trump has lost more support since the Jan 6 stuff. I don't get these numbers at all considering how republicans and Trump have been underperforming in actual elections.
Full disclosure:
but still...
The pro-Israel votes in US are coming from the white Liberal/Christians, which is a lot more than just the Jews and the Muslims voters
Why should the Biden campaign have started to freak out over this?
I think it's partly a joke, because Jim Cramer is notorious for being way off in his predictions about the stock market.
Sleeve roll up guy who shouts. Now I get it. Thanks!
Anyone here from New Jersey? I only follow the primary polls on 538 for the Senate seat in play and it looks like Rep. Andy Kim is going to win the primary if the numbers stand. But what is the talk on the ground looking like?
I personally like the guy ever since I read about him from how he served with the State Department, then worked on the NSC under President Obama, then got elected as a U.S. House Representative and then was part of that viral moment where he cleaned up the mess after the January 6 attack. I hope he will win the primary and then be elected as a US Senator.
I personally like the guy ever since I read about him from how he served with the State Department, then worked on the NSC under President Obama, then got elected as a U.S. House Representative and then was part of that viral moment where he cleaned up the mess after the January 6 attack. I hope he will win the primary and then be elected as a US Senator.
For what its worth, Morning consult had Trump winning the michigan primaries by 79%, the actual result was under 69%.
I think they will be off by more than just a few points this election.
Some interesting polling from Harry Enten this morning. Turns out Biden's deficit with Trump is among centrist independents and not lefties. Also, the so called uncommitted campaign is roughly in sync from uncommitteds in 2012, which means its likely not a factor.
Schiff keeps leading the California primary polls, i don't really see the point, when you have someone younger and likely more progressive in the race(Katie Porter), but its their business, i suppose.
I wonder where Barbara Lee's support goes, if she drops out, is she arguably spoiling the race for Porter?
I wonder where Barbara Lee's support goes, if she drops out, is she arguably spoiling the race for Porter?
Schiff is more of the establishment guy so I would expect him to come out ahead. Porter, despite being good social media fodder at Congressional hearings, doesn't seem to have the gravitas to move up.
Guess he just have more name recognition and all, and i'm sure he will be an okay senator, but since this is a deep blue state, going with the younger, more progressive option just seem smarter, oh well.
Lee has zero chance of winning, and needs to drop out already though.
If there were a palatable progressive option, I'm sure they would get more consideration. The trouble with Lee and Porter is they don't resonate outside the left wing bubble. They aren't telegenic, nor do they animate with or appeal to centrist independents that typically decide a lot of elections.
But there is one, Porter is a solid option, she is not a candidate without appeal, her winning elections in a swing-district in the house is a testament to that, is it not?
By palatable I mean her general demeanor of how she communicates. She comes off as abrasive and fixated on one thing (consumer protection issues).
Has Trump gained anything since 2020? Nothing within the actual primary results, at least, indicates so.
Biden might have lost independent voters to third parties, or sitting home, i think is more likely, that would still be trouble though.
Interesting point, i don't think "moderate" dems or centrists are the ones that cares too much about gaza, so if he is losing voters, its probably for other reasons.
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Foreign policy in general is barely on the radar for a vast majority of Americans. Its all about the economy, inflation, the border, and the cost of healthcare. Whoever wins those will win in Nov.
Saw a recent poll, that didn't have healthcare very high up on the list of concerns for voters, guess they think ACA is "settled" now, but it is most definitely not.
Dems can never win on the border or economy, for various reasons, but this one they have won on before, and can do so again, they should shout out every day that Trump and GOP are coming for healthcare again, which they are, Trump still promises to overturn ACA.
Healthcare, abortion, democracy, and to some extent, economy, are the issues dems should run on, they should not waste much time on the border.
The uncommitted campaign of 2012 was meant to register displeasure with Obama. In the general election of 2012, Obama got 2,564,569 votes in Michigan. This was a decrease of 308,010 votes compared to 2008, and a 3.19 percentage drop in vote share (from 57.4 to 54.21).
If we accept that the uncommitted campaign of 2024 is roughly in sync with the uncommitted campaign of 2012 then it stands to reason that its effects will be roughly in sync too. That would be a serious problem, since Biden won Michigan by 154,188 votes and 2.78 percentage points.
However I do not think that the campaigns are roughly in sync because the vote totals in the two primaries are wildly different.
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We can't say it was due to a displeasure in Obama or simply because Romney was viewed as a stronger candidate than McCain for Michigan voters. Romney's family has a long history in the state where his father ran a prominent automaker in the 50s and was later the state's Governor. Romney was therefore always going to outperform McCain there. The fact that the uncommitted numbers have barely budged from then to now is suggestive that Biden's issue isn't among left leaning Palestine supporters, but rather among centrist independents who prioritize the border, inflation, and the general state of the economy and cost of living.
Clinton won on the economy. “It’s the economy, stupid,” became a famous James Carville quote.
Voters trust republicans on the economy, regardless of the facts, so what do they know?
Anyway, in the mid-terms, clearly it wasn't the top issue, otherwise, dems would have been swept.
Recent Morning Consult poll from last week.
https://pro.morningconsult.com/trackers/2024-presidential-election-polling
https://pro.morningconsult.com/trackers/2024-presidential-election-polling
Does every election since 2012 have the same number of uncommitted? Very strange if true.
That's interesting, nice to have an overview like this.Recent Morning Consult poll from last week.
https://pro.morningconsult.com/trackers/2024-presidential-election-polling
At this stage (8-9 months out) a lot of people simply haven't made up their minds or else haven't taken the time to commit one way or another, which is why one shouldn't take too much stock in the uncommitted thing. Many won't vote for Biden in the end because Michigan has a huge Arab-American population, but its unclear whether among the many issues voters actually care about, if it will make a meaningful difference in the end.
We can probably discard this explanation because Romney did not particularly outperform McCain in Michigan. He got 70,851 more votes and +3.7%. That is in line with his improvements in nearby states such as Wisconsin ( +3.6% ) and Illinois ( + 3.9% ).
That was merely one explantion. Another is that the nation had lurched significantly to the right by way of the emergence of the Tea Party movement and a general despair of being affected by the great recession, higher unemployment etc. None of which were Obama's fault since the economy and market were already tanking during the 08 election.