2024 U.S. Elections | Trump wins
- Thread starter Raoul
- Start date
DeSantis is campaigning himself out of a credible presidential run.
Trump didnt even start against him and he already looks a weak candidate.
Biden against trump in 2024 and no one likes more heroical comeback than amerricans
Biden against trump in 2024 and no one likes more heroical comeback than amerricans
Actually, Trump has been banging on him a decent amount recently…
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3973521-desantis-fight-back-trump-pressure-2024/amp/
Yeah, true. Here and there, but not like ted and rubio in the primaries. This is not even breakfast.
Arnold said GOP will dig itself deeper into electoral obscurity if they nominate Trump again.
I often agree with things he says, but not this one, and surely he most know this as well.
See, the US at large is done with the GOP, but it doesn't matter when all that seperates them from power is a few 10k votes in a few states, yes, Trump likely loses again in 2024, but it wont be any kind of textbook landslide, simply because the Electoral college is rigged in the GOPs favor, the senate is also rigged in their favor.
Now, winning the popular vote by about 7 million votes is an actual landslide, and yet it was just a slim electoral win, sad to think about.
GOP will be kept alive for decades more without changing their platform, simply because the electoral system favors them that much.
I often agree with things he says, but not this one, and surely he most know this as well.
See, the US at large is done with the GOP, but it doesn't matter when all that seperates them from power is a few 10k votes in a few states, yes, Trump likely loses again in 2024, but it wont be any kind of textbook landslide, simply because the Electoral college is rigged in the GOPs favor, the senate is also rigged in their favor.
Now, winning the popular vote by about 7 million votes is an actual landslide, and yet it was just a slim electoral win, sad to think about.
GOP will be kept alive for decades more without changing their platform, simply because the electoral system favors them that much.
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Don’t disagree, but for me the Senate seat (non) apportionment is significantly worse than the EC. At least the EC, if you squint hard enough, can be seen as “fare”.
No, the Republicans are not "done".
You seem to forget that Republicans currently have the majority in the House, which has proportional voting.
And large parts of the population (for example Latinos, who are often religious and conservative in the US) would vote for Republicans if Republicans did not support racists like Trump.
It’s not really proportional voting. For instance, the GOP here in NC drew the maps to make it 10-4 (or something close to that) in their favor. The is probably a 45-55 state at worse. Gerrymandering, equal senate representation, and the EC has made proportional government almost impossible.
Ron DeSantis eating pudding with his fingers will end his GOP run
No doubt, the senate is the silliest branch of government in the US, Wyoming having the same amount of senators as a massive state like California is undemocratic to the core.
Its not something that should exist, just let the house take over its duties would be for the best, even if gerrymandering is a big issue.
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Having the executive unrelated to the legislature is bad enough, but having two legislative chambers, with separate elections and more or less equal powers, that's just bad design.
Stupid founding fathers.
Stupid founding fathers.
Wyoming has even more than CA at the moment because Feinstein has been AWOL for months. She needs to resign now and let Gav appoint a replacement.
In other news, has Biden said he will keep Harris as Veep? This choice could be a factor if voters are concerned about Biden's mortality and unimpressed by Harris.
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It’s the federalist system of governance that seems to be the issue. California has two Senators and yet has the population of 18 other states combined, who have 36 collective Senators. So are Californians disproportionately underrepresented in the current system ? Most would say we are.
Totally agree. I was just pointing out that CA needs someone to replace Feinstein. I've lived in CA and now am in one of those 18 states (Vermont) and see the difference in representation. Bernie for example is highly visible around VT because of how small (in population and area) it is.
I kept hearing people say Harris is not impressive. What did she do wrong or not do right, though?
I have never heard of people questioning a VP's role with other presidents that much in such a short time. I am wondering if it is because she is a black female.
What did she do, full stop. She's 100% absent from the spotlight.
It’s partly that she’s a woman (Republicans) and part that she’s a combination of annoying and unaccomplished. There’s also a lingering perception that she’s an opportunist clout chaser. But more problematic is she genuinely doesn’t have a constituency - the national black community have never warmed to her, nor have women, nor Indians. Ironically, Biden chose her specifically because he needed a black female candidate to punch his diversity card in 2020, and now he’s sort of stuck with her.
Gerrymandering happens also in Blue states. GOP won the ‘popular vote’ in midterms (for the House) by the same margin as they won the House.
Immigrants from most countries in general have more republican support than one would think. Most legal immigrants to America follow the path of the "American Dream" going from middle class to wealthy. Recent GOP support for racists and crazies have turned off a lot of immigrants but there is still support.
Where I live Indians and Asians are probably the richest diaspora and the dem/republican split is closer than you'd think
I kind of agree on this, but then you can have the example of Vermont having the same number of senators as Texas or Florida. It is a quite stupid system, but stupid for both parties.
It also can be argued to not be stupid, but that is for another debate.
Zero chance the ticket changes.
Yes both the EC and Senate are completely broken in favor of the GOP.
I don't think any amount of squinting can make the EC look fair. Years ago this political scientist pretty much demolished every argument in favor of the EC and I have never seen anything close to rebutting his arguments. Its on the third edition now and IMO is required reading for anyone interested in American politics.
https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctvmd868v
I don't really do the meme thing but this was just too good to not save:
I would even say that's undemocratic.
Did people ask what Pence do before? I am curious because I have never either paid attention to that or people hardly talked about it.
Republicans generally don't care about stuff like that. They after all thought Dan Quayle and Sarah Palin were suitable VP pics.
GW Bush was probably the only GOP VP who had any visibility that I can remember.
Clever.
It ain't 50/50. Republicans have had a bias built into the House of Representatives for half a century. Sometimes it's been as high as +6%.
Last cycle it was less than previous because Democrats got their maps through scrutiny while Republicans had theirs challenged in court. Yet even with several Republican maps held up this swing still meant Democrats needed an estimated +1 to +1.9% to retain the House. So a historical bias instigated by Republican gerrymandering was partly, but not wholly, resolved by Democratic retaliation. However now that courts such as the one in North Carolina are ruling that evaluating partisan maps is outwith their competence this partial redress will be undone with the potential for full reestablishment (and even expansion) of Republican bias going forward.
Also, when evaluating the popular vote you need to factor in that Republicans field more candidates than Democrats due to holding a greater number of uncompetitive districts. Can't vote Democrat if there isn't a Democrat to vote for. This skews the popular vote. Uncompetitive, but contested seats also suppresses turnout, though it's less clear who this favours. You also need to factor in voter suppression tactics. Who gets sufficient ballot boxes? Who's vote's more likely to get challenged? So while yes, Republicans won the popular vote, that headline figure masks a slightly more complicated reality.
Edit: Just to add, that when you've looked at what affects the popular vote you still have to recognise that even though 2022 was a relatively good year for Republicans winning the popular vote masks another primary feature of gerrymandering which is elasticity. Basically you want to create as many districts as possible with buffers such as reliably provides you with seats regardless of the actual vote. In good years you might win the national vote by 2% and win your seat by 20,000. In such circumstances your seat will seem representative. In bad years you might lose the national vote by 2%, but still win your seat by maybe 5,000. Meanwhile your opponents win their (as few as possible) seats with enormous majorities of 50,000 or more, even in bad years. It's then that the facade of representation suddenly starts to crumble.
In any case the sheer weight of partisan gerrymandering means that the House is at best a facsimile of representative democracy. The roots are self evidently rotten. More and more people find themselves and their districts represented by people they didn't vote for. Even if the overall proportion of seats fairly matched the overall vote it's a post-hoc reconstruction that belies local level alienation.
This absence of democracy is even more fiercely evident at the state house. Take South Carolina for example. Almost 60% of seats in the upper house were filled without contest. Out of 124 districts a Republican stood in 106, a Democrat in 68.
Partisanship and gerrymandering are eating away at whatever democracy your country has left.
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CNN willing to do all they can to help Trump again
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Its stupid for both parties, but it significantly favors the GOP over the democrats.
That said, and i say that as someone who likes Bernie Sanders, his senate seat shouldn't exist either, i would certainly eliminate his position if i could, same as with every other senator.
Hope so, but just don’t see it.