2024 U.S. Elections | Trump wins

So Sinema sounds as though she is not going to run as a republican. Does her running as an independent hand the seat to the GOP on the basis that her and the dems would split the non-republican vote? It's a seat the Dems/Independents can't afford to lose.
 
Supposedly ABC news waPo poll has Trump up by quite a margin in a hypothetical match up.
 
WPMUFC said:
yeah, i read about it but couldn't find a direct link to anything within the poll worth posting.
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Yep, it's apparently a little funky. But, this should kick us in the ass to stop being g overconfident.
 
US presidency became more and more a popularity contest based on criticizing the other part and the incumbents always have certain disadvantage if they don't do a good job. Trump was being...Trump and thats why he lost. after 4 years, people will forget how tired we were about him and Biden had been not bad, not good but irrelevant and the popularity had been shifted to Trump vs DeSantis. Trump will destroy him and will be at the tip of the wave when facing Biden and I think he will be the favourite or 2024, because also, no one loves more than americans a good comeback story
 
surf said:
So Sinema sounds as though she is not going to run as a republican. Does her running as an independent hand the seat to the GOP on the basis that her and the dems would split the non-republican vote? It's a seat the Dems/Independents can't afford to lose.
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She can't run as a Republican because despite a few notable exceptions, most of her voting record is aligned with Biden's agenda. Another reason it would be hard to run as a Republican is because AZ GOP politics is pretty far right on culture war issues, which is why they've nominated nutjobs the likes of Kelli Ward and Kari Lake in recent years. Sinema is clearly nowhere close to that. Her best bet is to run as an Indy and hope Gallego doesn't pick up too much traction as the Dem in the race, or else she would be fecked.
 
4bars said:
US presidency became more and more a popularity contest based on criticizing the other part and the incumbents always have certain disadvantage if they don't do a good job. Trump was being...Trump and thats why he lost. after 4 years, people will forget how tired we were about him and Biden had been not bad, not good but irrelevant and the popularity had been shifted to Trump vs DeSantis. Trump will destroy him and will be at the tip of the wave when facing Biden and I think he will be the favourite or 2024, because also, no one loves more than americans a good comeback story
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It has been for years. Its been generations since the Presidency was about policy.
 
Raoul said:
It has been for years. Its been generations since the Presidency was about policy.
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Yup. People talk about it like it started happening a few decades ago. When I was in college, studying U.S. history gave me the perspective that it has been like that since the beginning, more or less. A lot of people (well, around me anyway) outside the U.S. think people just follow and elect "good" leaders in the U.S., and there is not much conflict in choosing them.
 
there have been sharp ideological fights before (jefferson vs federalists, lincoln vs various flavours of appeasers, FDR vs status quo, reagan vs status quo) but these are rare.

it's why the bernie primary defeat is even worse in retrospect - the chance for ideological change happens once every 50-100 years. it is over now.
 
Burn it all down. Neither side, in its mainstream form, wants to fix this, it’s just that the GOP wants to incinerate it while the Dems want to argue about what the water temp should be in the fire truck. We are a dead country, filled with hate and anger, fueled by grievance and spite.

I used to chastise those who said we were a finished country, or a hopeless country. I was wrong. We are. When we can’t keep alive those closest to us, when we sit idly as thousands of us are slaughtered, when we look at a pile of flesh that was a child and we do nothing……we deserve nothing.

Hey gun owners, I finally agree! It’s not the guns! It’s us. Americans. We are rotten to our very core and would pursue violence no matter the tool. feck all of us.
 
WI_Red said:
Burn it all down. Neither side, in its mainstream form, wants to fix this, it’s just that the GOP wants to incinerate it while the Dems want to argue about what the water temp should be in the fire truck. We are a dead country, filled with hate and anger, fueled by grievance and spite.

I used to chastise those who said we were a finished country, or a hopeless country. I was wrong. We are. When we can’t keep alive those closest to us, when we sit idly as thousands of us are slaughtered, when we look at a pile of flesh that was a child and we do nothing……we deserve nothing.

Hey gun owners, I finally agree! It’s not the guns! It’s us. Americans. We are rotten to our very core and would pursue violence no matter the tool. feck all of us.
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I've been down that path too over the last decade, it definitely feels like an inevitable decline. But, the US also produces some of the smartest people, fosters the best institutions and is largely the creative force of industry. It's a tragedy that the political and media ecosystems there have so thoroughly ruined the momentum after WW2 but it's not all bad.

About 20 years ago no one knew anything about US politics, it was barely discussed by normal people. We've all been tricked by the media looking for another sports world to sell ad dollars to. Now we have celebrity politics, but I have to hope that a) some people that want to do actual good are still getting involved and b) the momentum will eventually swing around.

By and large most people are good and not stupid when you get them away from social media and all this crap. If we could start acknowledging the impact the news and social media have had on society and actually do something about it, there's still a chance.
 
calodo2003 said:
‘We?’

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It's so weird to me how the usually warmongering Republicans have now gone full anti-intervention and taken the side of Russia, who was the number one enemy for so long. What do you think is behind this? Is it that they identify with a strongman like Putin? Pure contrarianism seeing as this is an issue Biden can win popularity on? No-one can convince me that it's genuine fiscal concerns, or the opinion that the money should be spent on infrastructure or welfare domestically - like they give a crap about that.
 
nimic said:
The tweet got his name wrong, which is going to be an extremely common occurrence. It's Dwyane Wade.
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Good spot.

I've always enjoyed listening to Hill, think he possibly could become a decent candidate.
 
Abizzz said:
Good spot.

I've always enjoyed listening to Hill, think he possibly could become a decent candidate.
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Do either of these guys actually have any political experience ? Otherwise they simply wind up being less clueless versions of Herschel.
 
Raoul said:
Do either of these guys actually have any political experience ? Otherwise they simply wind up being less clueless versions of Herschel.
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I haven't followed either except when they show up in connection to basketball, so I don't know. I was simply going on presentation, not substance (of which I have no clue if it's there or not).

Either way Democrats need candidates that beat Republicans. There's no need to be holier than though and only field qualified ones that lose.
 
Raoul said:
Dems reaching deep into their bench

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Sure didn't have those two on my 2024 FL Dem senatorial candidate bingo cards.

Wade recently said that his family couldn't live in FL or they had already moved.
 
calodo2003 said:
Sure didn't have those two on my 2024 FL Dem senatorial candidate bingo cards.

Wade recently said that his family couldn't live in FL or they had already moved.
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Yeah, it smacks of a bit of desperation for Dems. As in, they can't cough up proper candidates and are resorting to clutching at straws by recruiting retired athletes.
 
surf said:
So Sinema sounds as though she is not going to run as a republican. Does her running as an independent hand the seat to the GOP on the basis that her and the dems would split the non-republican vote? It's a seat the Dems/Independents can't afford to lose.
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No it doesn't, Gallego is currently polling ahead of GOP even with Sinema in the race.

I'm not sure she is even going to run, i mean, if she wants to be completely embarassed, go ahead.
 
Morty_ said:
No it doesn't, Gallego is currently polling ahead of GOP even with Sinema in the race.

I'm not sure she is even going to run, i mean, if she wants to be completely embarassed, go ahead.
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I think she's banking on scaring the Dems into not running anyone because they fear doing so would result in an R victory, thereby tipping the Senate to the R side. Only problem she underestimated the level of disgust at fence sitting over the past 4 years, which has resulted in Gallego polling better than expected. Therefore, she may be in a risky situation.
 
Florida is a lost cause anyway, doesn't help that the democratic party in that state is a joke, just ignore it.

Dems shouldn't get fooled to spend money there, again.
 
Raoul said:
I think she's banking on scaring the Dems into not running anyone because they fear doing so would result in an R victory, thereby tipping the Senate to the R side. Only problem she underestimated the level of disgust at fence sitting over the past 4 years, which has resulted in Gallego polling better than expected. Therefore, she may be in a risky situation.
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Regardless of dems or republicans winning the seat, she is absolutely toast anyway.
Scaring dems into not running anyone doesn't work when there is absolutely nothing to lose by doing so, she is that unpopular in Arizona.

She is one of the worst politicians around, its not that hard to be liked as an incumbent.
 
Morty_ said:
Regardless of dems or republicans winning the seat, she is absolutely toast anyway.
Scaring dems into not running anyone doesn't work when there is absolutely nothing to lose by doing so, she is that unpopular in Arizona.

She is one of the worst politicians around, its not that hard to be liked as an incumbent.
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True but Arizona is not solidly blue. It is still a swing state. The GOP candidates have just been so outrageously insane. Election denying let's recount 72 times, Kari lake etc. But they still got a lot of votes. Gallego would easily beat Sinema head to head. However if GOP out up someone non psycho. And you have Sinema running independent in a 3 way it could potentially lose the seat for Dems. And they desperately need to keep that seat.

Putting up with Sinema when she votes with Democrats most times and gets judges and other appointment across the line might be a calculation they have to take looking at where to spend dollars in Senate races. Ideally Sinema just takes a hike and go lobby for big bucks or whatever. She never cared about her constituents
 
Hamnat said:
True but Arizona is not solidly blue. It is still a swing state. The GOP candidates have just been so outrageously insane. Election denying let's recount 72 times, Kari lake etc. But they still got a lot of votes. Gallego would easily beat Sinema head to head. However if GOP out up someone non psycho. And you have Sinema running independent in a 3 way it could potentially lose the seat for Dems. And they desperately need to keep that seat.

Putting up with Sinema when she votes with Democrats most times and gets judges and other appointment across the line might be a calculation they have to take looking at where to spend dollars in Senate races. Ideally Sinema just takes a hike and go lobby for big bucks or whatever. She never cared about her constituents
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No, she can't win even with dem backing, she is toast, absolutely not something they should consider.

Also, in terms of GOP, GOP gonna GOP, they aren't going to moderate and suddenly pick someone sane, Lake is leading the senate primaries by quite a bit, likely to be her if she runs.

As for your first point, Kelly has been a solid dem, it made him more popular, i think that tells us something about the direction Arizona is heading in.
 
So after the CNN "townhall" there's some pretty clear observations/takes we can make

1. He's never letting the 2020 election go
2. He's almost certainly going to be the GOP nominee
3. If he were to be elected again it will be an even bigger shitshow than last time
4. Kaitlin Collins should get a medal for not kicking him in the balls for calling her nasty
 
Red in STL said:
So after the CNN "townhall" there's some pretty clear observations/takes we can make

1. He's never letting the 2020 election go
2. He's almost certainly going to be the GOP nominee
3. If he were to be elected again it will be an even bigger shitshow than last time
4. Kaitlin Collins should get a medal for not kicking him in the balls for calling her nasty
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I think he needs to be taken seriously as early as possible, as literally anything could happen if he makes it to election day against Biden, particularly in light of Biden's age and the distinct possibility the US will be in a recession next year. The only silver lining is that there's a decent chance the GA election rigging attempt and classified docs cases will land him in jail before that.
 
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