SinNombre
Full Member
- Joined
- Jan 26, 2019
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- 2,657
Trump winning the nomination is Biden's best chance to get re-elected. Haley will win the general easily.
Is Biden’s biggest selling point that he’s not Trump? That worked in 2020, but I’m not so sure if it has enough legs this time around.
2/3 is just congress, states is 3/4The Electoral College won’t be abolished. In fact, there is no chance for any Constitutional Amendment these days. There is no issue on which 2/3 of the states would agree. Democrats will just have to accept this for now, fight for every vote, particularly in the suburbs, and wait for more Gen Z to start voting.
Color me shocked!
I see we go supremacist very easily given some polls show something we don't like.
Coming from a country that had compulsory vote, went voluntary about 15 years ago and then recently reverted it in a very dumb political struggle with disastrous results, I say compulsory vote isn't worth it. It doesn't get better results, it's unpopular, difficult to implement, imposible to supervise and in fact it gives a new reason for people to detach from politics. If you want people to get more in touch with politics you have to actually offer them something. Even Trump understood that.
IMO it's gonna be Trump vs. Biden, Biden will win (mainly thanks to Trumps' felonies) and Trump is gonna spend the rest of his life struggling with several court cases. The election turnout is crucial though, and I think the danger is coming more from vote supression in key states (specially GA) than in Biden suddenly losing votes from small, usually high voting and well informed groups who pretty much know what's at stake.
Considering Trump is running basically as an incumbent, is 51% in Iowa really that impressive? Low turnout, btw.
Exactly; not impressive at all. We will see what happens in the next few states.Considering Trump is running basically as an incumbent, is 51% in Iowa really that impressive? Low turnout, btw.
Trump isn't "basically" an incumbent. He's neither an incumbent nor a normal candidate.
I wouldn't put much stock into the results. Voters in those first primary states often like rewarding people who put the time and effort.
But even if the voters show signs of "Trump fatigue" and the other candidates do better than expected/better than the last nomination, would it matter that much in the general election?
It seems to me that most voters in the US (and more and more in Europe as well) are incredibly tribal - "I'd never vote for the other party, no matter how bad the candidate for R/D is".
Or does it mean that many of the people voting for the other candidates now, won't vote in the GE if Trump ends up winning?
What is actually going on with Haley? A week after putting her foot in her mouth with the whole slavery and civil war thing, she comes out with this nonsense. Who is she pandering to? Even saying something like "Of course, slavery and segregation was racist, but we have moved past that now", I would imagine would be good enough for the majority of the base.
If the Dems had signalled a year ago that Biden would not be running it would have given them time to get people excited by a new face. They have a couple of people capable of winning the Presidency and also a couple of people capable of showing how nad Trump is. Trump would have looked like the old establisment and lost. Sadly however I fear because people view Biden as old an befuddled Trump will win.
Yup. Though given the fact this is still a primary it's not the first time a candidate says stupid stuff to pander to the extreme element in a party, only to turn into a more moderate version come general time. Haley would undoubtedly do that because she's a pretty skillfull politician if nothing else - Trump however doesn't know how to. His only devotion is to those who fall at his feet.She's running into the same problem the rest of them did (spare Christie). She needs Trump voters to win and therefore can't say anything to estrange herself from them.
I was pretty pessimistic at the last election and there were times on election night I thought Trump had won but there were lots of people on here explaining how when some seats looked likely to go Trumps way that certain areas counts hadnt come in and they would sway things towards Biden. Fortunately those people knew more about it all than I did and things panned out as they said.Biden isn't much worse off than his 2020 self and never discount the likelihood that American voters will turn up again to make sure Trump never has access to the WH again.
She's running into the same problem the rest of them did (spare Christie). She needs Trump voters to win and therefore can't say anything to estrange herself from them.
Obviously, Texas isn't going blue on presidential level, we all know that, guess the good news is Cruz barely hanging on ahead of his potential opponents.
Though, i'm under no illusion Texas senate seat will flip, but it could help if the party had to invest money there, they aren't exactly doing great on fundraising these days anyway.
Texas isn't as far away from flipping as you think it might be.Not bad for Biden, in my view.
He will lose Texas by 5-7%.
Texas isn't as far away from flipping as you think it might be.
In 2020, Texas was Trump+5.6. 4 years prior to that, Georgia was Trump+5.3 flipping in the next election
Populous suburbs around the Texas triangle (e.g. Collin, Williamson, Fort Bend counties) are trending rapidly Democratic and rapidly gaining population. There's not enough votes elsewhere in the state going the opposite direction.
I think Trump wins the state by 1 point. If he gets a felony conviction by November, I'm fairly certain it flips.
Texas isn't as far away from flipping as you think it might be.
In 2020, Texas was Trump+5.6. 4 years prior to that, Georgia was Trump+5.3 flipping in the next election
Populous suburbs around the Texas triangle (e.g. Collin, Williamson, Fort Bend counties) are trending rapidly Democratic and rapidly gaining population. There's not enough votes elsewhere in the state going the opposite direction.
I think Trump wins the state by 1 point. If he gets a felony conviction by November, I'm fairly certain it flips.
Texas isn't as far away from flipping as you think it might be.
In 2020, Texas was Trump+5.6. 4 years prior to that, Georgia was Trump+5.3 flipping in the next election
Populous suburbs around the Texas triangle (e.g. Collin, Williamson, Fort Bend counties) are trending rapidly Democratic and rapidly gaining population. There's not enough votes elsewhere in the state going the opposite direction.
I think Trump wins the state by 1 point. If he gets a felony conviction by November, I'm fairly certain it flips.