2024 U.S. Elections | Trump wins

WI_Red said:
Plus, it’s not even a “real” primary. It’s only a small fraction of the state that even “votes” as the caucus is a weird and potentially long event.

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Indeed. I want to see what happens next week in NH. It's a whole different place.

If Trump wins with 35-40%, would would that say for his strength as a general election candidate?

Also, here's the take of Simon Rosenberg. I agreed with him throughout the 2022 election season, and I find him more thoughtful that most others on the media.
 
ManUtd1999 said:
The Iowa Caucus should come to an end as an important factor in American politics. It's ridiculous on so many ways.

As I said last night, despite the clear win of Trump, I am not impressed. Half of those GOP voters chose not to vote for him as their nominee. Imagine half of Iowa/SC/Nevada/NH deciding not vote for Biden as their nominee? How would the reactions be? I understand that Biden is the incumbent president, but Trump is for all practical purposes like the incumbent for Republicans. I see weakness there.
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The Democrats have already changed this. South Carolina is now first, which is a lot more demographically diverse.

I tend to agree with your other point. Trump should definitely be seen as the incumbent. We need to see a few more primaries and caucusus before we can draw any real conclusions. He'll still win no matter what, though.
 
Mike Smalling said:
The Democrats have already changed this. South Carolina is now first, which is a lot more demographically diverse.

I tend to agree with your other point. Trump should definitely be seen as the incumbent. We need to see a few more primaries and caucusus before we can draw any real conclusions. He'll still win no matter what, though.
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Yes, I expect him to win the nomination. The point, though, is about the day after. The results last night indicate some weakness and show that they’re those republicans or lean republicans who want to move on from Trump. That could be significant come the summer.
 
Krakenzero said:
So he kickstarted one candidate's campaign, shamelessly promoted another one, and got ghosted by the other. Guess which one is winning.
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The calamitous kickoff to DeSantis' campaign by way of a buggy Twitter spaces event set the tone for his entire campaign never gaining any meaningful traction. He was actually much more viable to most Republicans when he was more of an idea that could save them from another potential Trump loss. Once people actually saw what DeSantis brought to the table, many simply went back to Trump.
 
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Raoul said:
The calamitous kickoff to DeSantis' campaign by way of a buggy Twitter spaces event set the tone for his entire campaign never gaining any meaningful traction. He was actually much more viable to most Republicans, when he was more of an idea that could save them from another potential Trump loss. Once people actually saw what DeSantis brought to the table, many simply went back to Trump.
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100%. There was this idea of DeSantis being the anti-woke governor and taking a brave anti-establishment approach to covid. Then he started speaking.
 
Mike Smalling said:
100%. There was this idea of DeSantis being the anti-woke governor and taking a brave anti-establishment approach to covid. Then he started speaking.
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This is why people shouldn't seriously consider the "a generic candidate would do better according to polls" approach. You can stick any virtue you want in an idea of a candidate without worrying about gaffes or baggage. DeSantis was doing OK while he was a blank slate in which the average GOP voter could see anything they wanted. Then he proceeded to reveal himself as a wet fart, opposed to the giant orange turd that turned out to be more appealing to that kind of voter.
 
Cloud7 said:
I know that the answer is money, that part of the question was rhetorical really. It's more just...does the money really make it worth it? For the life of me I can't imagine spending my days being a mascot for people that hate me, no matter how well it pays. I would feel so empty inside.
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Guessing these types lack empathy and humility. Greed and power is their lifeline.
 
Mike Smalling said:
100%. There was this idea of DeSantis being the anti-woke governor and taking a brave anti-establishment approach to covid. Then he started speaking.
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Problem is that there isn't enough market for his type for the current GOP base, many of whom actually believe Trump is the second coming of Jesus Christ and, I kid you you not, have even gone on to suggest that he's one of the angels to bring down judgment in Revelation due to his name being included in "TRUMPets" (I swear I'm not making this up). How do you meaningfully tap into those that literally deify him as a biblical figure?

Trump was faltering after the midterms, but the indictments started happening and it created a rally around the base effect. There really wasn't a lane for anyone else at that point because the GOP base is full of low IQ neanderthals swayed by meaningless showmanship and cult worship around him. None of which, again, appeal to independents who you NEED to win over to win the election.

As I've said again, Biden wins reelection after yesterday.
 
Winrar said:
Problem is that there isn't enough market for his type for the current GOP base, many of whom actually believe Trump is the second coming of Jesus Christ and, I kid you you not, have even gone on to suggest that he's one of the angels to bring down judgment in Revelation due to his name being included in "TRUMPets" (I swear I'm not making this up). How do you meaningfully tap into those that literally deify him as a biblical figure?

Trump was faltering after the midterms, but the indictments started happening and it created a rally around the base effect. There really wasn't a lane for anyone else at that point because the GOP base is full of low IQ neanderthals swayed by meaningless showmanship and cult worship around him. None of which, again, appeal to independents who you NEED to win over to win the election.

As I've said again, Biden wins reelection after yesterday.
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I’m not nearly as confident as you, mainly because of Biden’s frailty, but I do agree that there is plenty of signs of weakness for Trump.
 
Mike Smalling said:
I’m not nearly as confident as you, mainly because of Biden’s frailty, but I do agree that there is plenty of signs of weakness for Trump.
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Biden's age is indeed a problem, but it's blunted by the fact that Trump himself is nearing 80 and looking weak himself.
 
Still has Biden as a favorite, its early days, he has just started campaigning, and already i think Trumps polling average has gone down from about a 3 point lead, to only one point.

Not much talked about, usually only the bad polls get attention, but the national polls were better for Trump last month, by quite a bit.
 
Cloud7 said:
It's depressing for people like Vivek that these are the sorts of people they are whoring themselves out to. Sure, they all like being able to say that they agree with the brown guy who shares their opinions, because then they can pat themselves on the back and say they're not racist because the brown guy agrees with them, but when it comes right down to it, this is how these people actually feel. How do people like Vivek live with themselves?
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Makes it clearer why Nimarata Randhawa goes by Nikki Haley.
 
Mike Smalling said:
100%. There was this idea of DeSantis being the anti-woke governor and taking a brave anti-establishment approach to covid. Then he started speaking.
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Thing is, even if he wasn't a weirdo without charisma, he probably still would have flopped, Florida is a very different electorate from, well, every other state.

Its the only state where being "anti-woke" is on top of the priorities of the voters, or close to it.
 
Morty_ said:
Thing is, even if he wasn't a weirdo without charisma, he probably still would have flopped, Florida is a very different electorate from, well, every other state.

Its the only state where being "anti-woke" is on top of the priorities of the voters, or close to it.
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He was always way too online. I do think a DeSantis type character with a non-creepy personality and better messaging gets up to around 30% instead of 20%.

That’s actually where he started in the polling. He visited every county in the state and spent $30m on ads to lose 10 points. Meanwhile, Trump sat on his fat ass in courtrooms and dodged the debates, and Haley had a slavery gaffe (not that it matters much to the people that vote in the Iowa GOP caucus).

DeSantis is a monumental loser, who put all his eggs in one basket and still lost by 30 points. He will get smoked in New Hampshire and should drop out after that.
 
ManUtd1999 said:
Indeed. I want to see what happens next week in NH. It's a whole different place.

If Trump wins with 35-40%, would would that say for his strength as a general election candidate?

Also, here's the take of Simon Rosenberg. I agreed with him throughout the 2022 election season, and I find him more thoughtful that most others on the media.
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Yes, trump should bd counted as incumbeng andvis a week 40%. But i suspect that if the Ds would have primaries with Biden, newsom and a third, results would be the same or even Newsom win

In the end it will be pairing to very weak candidates in november. Vote supression will be the winner and there is were Rs have field advantage
 
The Electoral College will hand the orange cnut the presidency again even though Biden will crush him in the popular vote. Yay democracy.

Scrap the Electoral College and we can laugh at Trump for the wacky fringe candidate he should be.
 
4bars said:
Yes, trump should bd counted as incumbeng andvis a week 40%. But i suspect that if the Ds would have primaries with Biden, newsom and a third, results would be the same or even Newsom win

In the end it will be pairing to very weak candidates in november. Vote supression will be the winner and there is were Rs have field advantage
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They do have primaries and they are coming, but Newsom isn't running, Dean ePhillips and Marianne Williamson are running, RFK jr was but he withdrew to run as an Independent
 
Blood Mage said:
The Electoral College will hand the orange cnut the presidency again even though Biden will crush him in the popular vote. Yay democracy.

Scrap the Electoral College and we can laugh at Trump for the wacky fringe candidate he should be.
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Never gonna happen, requires a constitutional amendment and as the system generally favors the GOP they'd never vote for it
 
700k registered republican voters in Iowa and they get what, 110k turnout? I know the weather was bad etc, maybe everyone assumed it was a forgone conclusion. I still think it’s positive for Biden in a general though.
 
Red in STL said:
They do have primaries and they are coming, but Newsom isn't running, Dean ePhillips and Marianne Williamson are running, RFK jr was but he withdrew to run as an Independent
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No one relevant IMO. Cant remember anything campaign related on Ds primaries
 
The Electoral College won’t be abolished. In fact, there is no chance for any Constitutional Amendment these days. There is no issue on which 2/3 of the states would agree. Democrats will just have to accept this for now, fight for every vote, particularly in the suburbs, and wait for more Gen Z to start voting.

WPMUFC said:
NH debate cancelled as Trump won't agree to Haley's request
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Color me shocked!
 
RedDevil@84 said:
His cult would only read "God said... Trump"
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:lol: Sad but true.
As an aside; One of my trumpy work colleagues was saying today how his student loan got cancelled by Biden, a guy he don’t vote for and would never vote for. Somehow he still found a negative in the loan forgiveness. Mind you he said he didn’t need loan forgiveness as he has plenty of money, and he’s had the loan since 1997.
Genius.
 
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